Predictions for the coming year

[Pattmost20]

13 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

They could certainly replace it. It's a terrible store now. 

I grew up shopping there, don't really enjoy it anymore. But they are catering to the same crowd as WF. They have people who will chop your veggies for you and a cold pressed juice bar.

[Allison Slater]

On 12/31/2018 at 10:10 AM, Prankster said:

Yikes, tSlater, sounds like the only thing you left out were the four horsemen of the apocalypse. 

That'll be in 2021.

[wingbert]

On 12/27/2018 at 8:15 PM, jdkacz said:

Kwl, I agree, I think the craft beer boom as we've known it the past several years, is past us. 

But, but, but... my beard is just filling in nicely and I just bought all this flannel [begins searching key words “tattoo removal”].

[organsnyder]

On 1/30/2018 at 9:25 AM, organsnyder said:

Since we're already 1/12th done, I'll make mine:

1. Some downtown projects will be scaled back as growth slows to a more reasonable level. YEP

2. Downtown theater will break ground and proceed on-schedule. YEP

3. Hinman building will be delayed and/or scaled back. YEP

4. AmplifyGR will continue to keep a low profile, but will facilitate two or three industrial tenants in the Cottage Grove / Madison area (where development is less controversial). MIXED (I can't think of any new industrial tenants, though renovation work appears to be ongoing in many of the buildings; they have kept a fairly low profile, though)

5. The Castle will limp toward the finish line. YEP

6. Burton Heights will see signs of continued growth, including the closure of the trashy XXX shop. YEP

7. Inequality and poverty will continue to be the attention of many forums and much consternation, but no major initiatives will be introduced. MIXED (I can think of a few initiatives that are pretty cool, perhaps even qualifying as "major")

Pretty much nailed it (not hard to do when the predictions are that boring).

Going with some more outlandish predictions (alongside some more mundane ones) for 2019:

1. Downtown office space market continues to stagnate due to stinginess from area employers.
2. Art Prize project is really cool and produces a lot of buzz, but does not drive much tourist traffic.
3. AmplifyGR announces two to three high-profile projects.
4. IKEA announces plans to build a store at Rivertown, anchoring a major de-mall renovation.
5. Gentrification continues (mostly unnoticed) on the SE side. Low-income residents are pushed further south toward Kentwood.
6. Van Eerden Foodservice announces plans to relocate from their S Division Ave location. A mixed-income housing development is announced for the parcel.
7. 201 Market project actually exceeds our expectations.
8. City announces plans to construct two new parking ramps downtown.
9. Zipcar finally comes to GR.
10. Waymo selects GR as first northern city to begin testing.
11. Burton Heights continues to see investment that is mostly ignored by this forum and other urbanist sites.
12. National economy enters a significant recession beginning in Q3, finally reigning in housing price growth; prices do not decline, however.

[Pattmost20]

43 minutes ago, organsnyder said:

Burton Heights continues to see investment that is mostly ignored by this forum and other urbanist sites.

Hey now, I love me some Burton Heights. I was at Rodriguez the other day (Pork Al Pastor from the butcher, delicious). I just have zero inside scoop on anything happening there.

[arcturus]

Here's an easy one - Keeler building remains in limbo.

[RegalTDP]

On 12/31/2018 at 6:47 AM, GRDadof3 said:

It's such a head-scratcher that I can't even speculate. I though the best chance for one was a few years ago. After 10 years of predicting that we'd hear about something, I'm .... ambivalent.

I was a perennial Whole Foods predictor on this forum for the past 7-8 years we've had this thread, but mainly kept it up out of sheer stubbornness than anything else.

But I think the chances are going up: https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-opening-more-whole-foods-stores-2019-1

They are trying to use Prime and their in-store lockers to compete directly with Walmart and Meijer as a one-stop shopping destination.  I think it's a matter of time before they expand their footprint into GR.  It will be interesting to see what some of the first Amazon-built WF stores will look like.

[droonus2000]

I have never made one of these lists but here it goes.

1.River town will see some renovations, Younkers will be torn down and replaced with housing, a couple of new stores will come in to help refresh things and try to close the widening Woodland gap.

2. Convention Center hotel will announce 2020 start date, plans are substantial.

3. DT Market announces expansion/renovation plans to create more event space, and then cancels them.

4. Housing crunch worsens, some remediation is announced with replacing homes with townhouses and apartments, but faces significant gentrification backlash. Hopefully resulting in good community discussion and compromise. 

5.Major rumors of GRFC stadium and league changes, but nothing  concrete is announced by the club. 

6. MSU  research center phase ll plans underwhelm, but it’s better then nothing.

7. Bridge st continues resurgence and expands north of I-196 on Seward and Stocking.

8. Switch finally begins to live up to promises, tech related flights increase, a tech company opens a small office.

9. Project 1 confuses many people. Folks will wonder where to vote, will still call it ArtPrize, and be upset that they have to seek out the art even though it’s more concentrated.

10. A new life music venue opens with 400+ capacity, in addition to the listening room at Studio C.

[walker]

34 minutes ago, droonus2000 said:

I have never made one of these lists but here it goes.

1.River town will see some renovations, Younkers will be torn down and replaced with housing, a couple of new stores will come in to help refresh things and try to close the widening Woodland gap.

Apparently the Yonkers store is not owned by the mall owner, Brookfield Property Partners LP, and it is up for auction later this month:

MBIZ: former west michigan younkers store locations to be auctioned 

So I guess if someone wants to buy it and tear it down and build housing, here's your chance. 

 

[GRDadof3]

9 hours ago, walker said:

Apparently the Yonkers store is not owned by the mall owner, Brookfield Property Partners LP, and it is up for auction later this month:

MBIZ: former west michigan younkers store locations to be auctioned 

So I guess if someone wants to buy it and tear it down and build housing, here's your chance. 

 

Seems like a strange place for housing. That townhouse community up behind it has struggled to sell since the day it opened. I believe the developers out of Sterling Heights (?) even filed for bankruptcy a few years ago. 

10 hours ago, droonus2000 said:

I have never made one of these lists but here it goes.

1.River town will see some renovations, Younkers will be torn down and replaced with housing, a couple of new stores will come in to help refresh things and try to close the widening Woodland gap.

2. Convention Center hotel will announce 2020 start date, plans are substantial.

3. DT Market announces expansion/renovation plans to create more event space, and then cancels them.

4. Housing crunch worsens, some remediation is announced with replacing homes with townhouses and apartments, but faces significant gentrification backlash. Hopefully resulting in good community discussion and compromise. 

5.Major rumors of GRFC stadium and league changes, but nothing  concrete is announced by the club. 

6. MSU  research center phase ll plans underwhelm, but it’s better then nothing.

7. Bridge st continues resurgence and expands north of I-196 on Seward and Stocking.

8. Switch finally begins to live up to promises, tech related flights increase, a tech company opens a small office.

9. Project 1 confuses many people. Folks will wonder where to vote, will still call it ArtPrize, and be upset that they have to seek out the art even though it’s more concentrated.

10. A new life music venue opens with 400+ capacity, in addition to the listening room at Studio C.

#truth 

[egrguy]

9 hours ago, walker said:

Apparently the Yonkers store is not owned by the mall owner, Brookfield Property Partners LP, and it is up for auction later this month:

MBIZ: former west michigan younkers store locations to be auctioned 

So I guess if someone wants to buy it and tear it down and build housing, here's your chance. 

 

I've always wondered if housing attached to a mall could be successful. You have restaurants/shopping and a really walkable type community right out your door. I am sure someone has done the research and concluded its not feasible, I agree, however, that the mall should try to think outside the box a little bit. Could that be a good fit for a Whole Foods/Dave N Busters/Lucky Strike type of facility?

[Chester Cheeto]

10 minutes ago, jdkacz said:

I've always wondered if housing attached to a mall could be successful. You have restaurants/shopping and a really walkable type community right out your door. I am sure someone has done the research and concluded its not feasible, I agree, however, that the mall should try to think outside the box a little bit. Could that be a good fit for a Whole Foods/Dave N Busters/Lucky Strike type of facility?

Salt Lake City HAD an example of a successful outdoor mall with apartments, condos, offices called the Gateway. It HAD all the trendy stores like Apple, plenty of restaurants, a movie theatre with an IMAX, underground parking garages, etc. It was great, the misses and I were living in Ogden about 45 minutes north, and there was a high speed train that I could take for $4.50 down to SLC with a station that was a block and a half from the Gateway. My wife worked in SLC so I'd take the train down and meet her on Friday nights for a nice date night.

Then the dominant church out there built a new mall literally two blocks from the Gateway and vultured all those trendy stores and pretty much left the Gateway an empty shell.

The Rivertown people should take a look at the Gateway model (before being vultured) because it has been done successfully in the past, and Woodland won't ever be two blocks away. Utah's winters might be a bit more mild than GR's, but it certainly got cold and snowy at times and that place always seemed to be busy. Looking at the Gateway's website, I see they do now have a Dave N Busters. (http://shopthegateway.com/directory/)

[GRLaker]

4 hours ago, jdkacz said:

I've always wondered if housing attached to a mall could be successful. You have restaurants/shopping and a really walkable type community right out your door. I am sure someone has done the research and concluded its not feasible, I agree, however, that the mall should try to think outside the box a little bit. Could that be a good fit for a Whole Foods/Dave N Busters/Lucky Strike type of facility?

Well the example that I gave in the suburban thread of what they should do with Rivertown involved housing above the stores. I have seen a few Main Street style shopping malls have housing above the shops. Whether or not they're at or close to capacity, I have no idea.

[walker]

4 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

Seems like a strange place for housing. That townhouse community up behind it has struggled to sell since the day it opened. I believe the developers out of Sterling Heights (?) even filed for bankruptcy a few years ago. 

I know why they’ve struggled.  Those condos back there are weird and not just because they overlook the backside of a mall and a Meijer.  My wife from time to time decides we should move into a condo as a place to live in our declining years.  So, a year or so ago she dragged me along to look at one back there.  The basic layout is a ground level garage with a steep flight of stairs to the kitchen and living area then another set of stairs to the bedrooms.  That’s an awful lot of climbing for an old couple carrying groceries or for that matter for a young couple with young children.  I can kind of understand this layout in a dense urban area where land is tight, but out there where there is plenty of space why stack things up?    

[GRLaker]

1 minute ago, walker said:

I know why they’ve struggled.  Those condos back there are weird and not just because they overlook the backside of a mall and a Meijer.  My wife from time to time decides we should move into a condo as a place to live in our declining years.  So, a year or so ago she dragged me along to look at one back there.  The basic layout is a ground level garage with a steep flight of stairs to the kitchen and living area then another set of stairs to the bedrooms.  That’s an awful lot of climbing for an old couple carrying groceries or for that matter for a young couple with young children.  I can kind of understand this layout in a dense urban area where land is tight, but out there where there is plenty of space why stack things up?    

You must have looked at the units right behind Meijer. That is a terrible layout, as I went through one once as well. The others aren't much better, but they are an improvement from those. But yeah, whoever designed the concept of those places had an odd thought process to say the least.

[walker]

 

4 hours ago, mielsonwheels said:

Salt Lake City HAD an example of a successful outdoor mall with apartments, condos, offices called the Gateway. It HAD all the trendy stores like Apple, plenty of restaurants, a movie theatre with an IMAX, underground parking garages, etc. It was great, the misses and I were living in Ogden about 45 minutes north, and there was a high speed train that I could take for $4.50 down to SLC with a station that was a block and a half from the Gateway. My wife worked in SLC so I'd take the train down and meet her on Friday nights for a nice date night.

Then the dominant church out there built a new mall literally two blocks from the Gateway and vultured all those trendy stores and pretty much left the Gateway an empty shell.

The Rivertown people should take a look at the Gateway model (before being vultured) because it has been done successfully in the past, and Woodland won't ever be two blocks away. Utah's winters might be a bit more mild than GR's, but it certainly got cold and snowy at times and that place always seemed to be busy. Looking at the Gateway's website, I see they do now have a Dave N Busters. (http://shopthegateway.com/directory/)

I too was really impressed with the Gateway Mall back before the Mormons came along with their competing mall which pretty much destroyed Gateway.  We discussed the two downtown Salt Lake City malls in the forum way back in 2012.

GRDadof3 started it:

On 6/26/2012 at 10:56 AM, GRDadof3 said:

A guy I've gotten to know recently (who might be on here now) told me about a new open air retail project that just opened in downtown Salt Lake City along their light rail line (he moved here from there recently). Has all the big names in retail, Macy's, Nordstrom, Banana Republic, Cheesecake Factory, etc.. $2 Billion project, financed by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (owns most of downtown SLC) and Taubman (the mall developer). Was in the works since 2007, combining two old basically vacant downtown retail spots, and spans 23 acres wedged in between a number of existing buildings. Interesting concept. Anyone got $2 Billion? (Amway ahem!) I dropped a similar concept on the lot next to 5/3 Bank tower and then the Lyon/Ottawa lot, tying those two spaces together and then having front door access to the convention center. Then you'd have a continuous retail element from the convention center, through the mall, and out to Ottawa Ave close to Monroe Center.

 

Let me know what you think...

 

A blogger breaks it down.

 

http://www.hercampus.com/school/utah/city-creek-center-ready-bring-life-salt-lake

This is what I added to the conversation back then:

On 6/27/2012 at 9:13 AM, walker said:

I've passed through SLC three of the past four years, the last time in April. No I'm not a Mormon, it is just that Salt Lake City is a convenient staging area when traveling to many western national parks. I've also thought of the similarities between SLC and GR, i.e. the wealthy religious conservatives that pull the strings versus their generally not as wealthy opposite. SLC is 50% Mormon and obviously 50% not Mormon (Utah is even more Mormon, 70%.) And I was struck about the commitment to mass transit in a metro area that is not really terribly large. Considering the unpopularity around here of mass transit among the right-wing crowd I was really surprised to see its apparent popularity in SLC. Another thing that surprised me about SLC, despite it being a very clean and prosperous looking city, it has a substantial population of homeless people. Every time I've walked in the downtown area, I've been greeted by (polite) panhandlers.

I didn't even know about this new downtown mall but looking at the map, a couple of blocks away is another huge downtown mall called Gateway that I've patronized. It was built around the time of the SLC Winter Olympics. It is built on the existing street grid connecting existing buildings, most notably their old Union Station, with new infill retail buildings along with office buildings and apartments, all connected by multi-level walkways. Except that it doesn't have a re-tractable roof or any roof at all, it looks a lot like the photos of the new mall. In fact I thought I was looking at Gateway when I first took a look at the pictures. I don't believe it is owned or controlled by the Mormon Church in that its restaurants, stores, and theaters are open on Sunday.

So I wonder if Salt Lake City can support two large downtown malls (seeing how we couldn't support in the past one small one.) Googgling about the new mall, I see that it was built on the properties of two old adjacent Mormon owned enclosed malls that were torn down several years ago. I imagine that there is some local politics going on here that we are not aware of.

 

EDIT: I see GRDadof3 snuck in some comments about Gateway just before I posted this.

 

[MJLO]

On 1/3/2019 at 10:32 PM, droonus2000 said:

8. Switch finally begins to live up to promises, tech related flights increase, a tech company opens a small office.

Passenger traffic at GFIA for 2018 is going to come in at  significant double digit increases, over an already record setting 2017.  

Are we sure tech related flights haven’t already started to increase?

 

[kwl]

I don't think we'll ever get an IKEA. They've really made progress with e-commerce and most products you can now have shipped to your house/office. Also, I'd see somewhere like Okemos getting one before we do...only to satisfy the MSU college demand. 

 

[GRLaker]

2 minutes ago, kwl said:

I don't think we'll ever get an IKEA. They've really made progress with e-commerce and most products you can now have shipped to your house/office. Also, I'd see somewhere like Okemos getting one before we do...only to satisfy the MSU college demand. 

 

My wife ordered some furniture from there a couple years ago and she had to wait until so many orders came out of GR before they made a shipment from their Detroit store to here. I hope they have improved upon that since then. 

[Pattmost20]

3 hours ago, kwl said:

I don't think we'll ever get an IKEA. They've really made progress with e-commerce and most products you can now have shipped to your house/office. Also, I'd see somewhere like Okemos getting one before we do...only to satisfy the MSU college demand. 

 

I could see 131 south of town to capitalize on GR and K-Zoo/WMU market. Maybe west of Lansing they could get both MSU and GR.

[RegalTDP]

3 hours ago, kwl said:

I don't think we'll ever get an IKEA. They've really made progress with e-commerce and most products you can now have shipped to your house/office. Also, I'd see somewhere like Okemos getting one before we do...only to satisfy the MSU college demand. 

 

I think the MSA population needs to get up to over 2 million before they will come here.  They're not in that many cities.

[Pattmost20]

5 minutes ago, RegalTDP said:

I think the MSA population needs to get up to over 2 million before they will come here.  They're not in that many cities.

Not saying that I think they'll come here, but Salt Lake City's MSA is just over 1 million (I know it serves a population probably closer to 2 million) and Memphis is around 1.3 million. If you put it between GR/K-Zoo that would cover just under 2 million people.

[organsnyder]

My IKEA prediction was intended to be fairly detached from reality (I was reacting to my too-safe predictions from the previous year). Though I do think we would have the sales traffic to sustain one.

[GRLaker]

8 minutes ago, organsnyder said:

My IKEA prediction was intended to be fairly detached from reality (I was reacting to my too-safe predictions from the previous year). Though I do think we would have the sales traffic to sustain one.

As do I. We have two universities between GR and Kalamazoo that total approximately 50,000 people. Add in Ferris up in Big Rapids and you're at approximately 62,000. Plus, the Dutch love a good deal, which IKEA provides in the form of a giant warehouse store. To me, IKEA is a lot like Costco, only for furniture and home goods. If you go to either Costco in this area, you'll find it very difficult to find a parking spot that isn't 1/4 of a mile out. I suspect we'd see a similar situation with IKEA.

[GRDadof3]

An ex-GR Press reporter the other day said to me he couldn't believe UrbanPlanet GR was still going and he compared it to myspace. 

Anyway I had a good laugh at his expense (because look at the GR Press now, speaking of myspace).

So I was thinking in AT LEAST the last 10 years, all of the things that the members here have expressed that they'd like to see in Grand Rapids, and how many of those things have happened. We'll call this 2009 Predictions/Wish List:

) Movie theater downtown = check

) Extend development and infill all of those crazy big surface lots behind the arena = check

) A real grocery store downtown or near downtown = check

) Trader Joes to come to GR = check

) All (or most) of the old buildings on Wealthy revitalized and infill = check

) A medical school and bioscience research centers on Michigan Street = check

) In conjunction with the above, get rid of the old GR Press/Myspace building = check

) Infill on Michigan Street = check

) Something to finally be built on the WAM site = check

) More residential infill in Monroe North = check

) Reinvigorate the riverfront and re-do the riverbanks and parks = check (starting)

) A new "flatiron" project on the Louis/Ionia/Fulton surface lot = check

) More retail on Monroe Center = check (it ebbs and flows but I think it's nearly 100% occupied, a far cry from the UP - meetup and meeting with the Downtown Alliance 10 or so years ago).

) More breweries = check

) Infill on Bridge Street = check

) More GVSU presence downtown = check

) Something to finally be built on the Ellis lot at Lyon and Ottawa = check

) Revitalization and infill at the corner of Division and Fulton, the Eastern epicenter of downtown = check

) Something built on the surface lot at Sheldon and Fulton = check

) Something done with the old JA building (haha how we begged for that) = check

) Fix up the memorial parks along Fulton/Sheldon = check

) Add more bike lanes and expand transit = check and in progress

) Fix up all of those old warehouses on Ionia South of Wealthy = check

) Infill the big vacant decrepit lot at Wealthy and Division = check, on-going

) Expand the FSFM = check

) Infill apartments on pretty much every vacant lot in the city, including the "Southeast side" (dun dun dun) = check, ongoing

) Do something with that blighted Blodgett Home for Children in East Hills = check

) Fill up all retail space in Midtown, Eastown, East Hills, Wealthy Street, and East Grand Rapids = check

So keep sharing things you'd like to see. People ARE still reading.

If you think of more, you can shoot me an email at [email protected]

Toodles. 

Edit: forgot the revitalizatikn of The Morton (House Hotel) and Olds Manor!! Woops.