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GRDadof3

Predictions for the coming year

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3 hours ago, GRLaker said:

Good point. Last I knew, PH had to start having employees work from home due to lack of space.

They rebuilt the parking lot as well a year or so ago, and I believe bought land from Northpoint Christian to expand their parking lots? 

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23 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

They rebuilt the parking lot as well a year or so ago, and I believe bought land from Northpoint Christian to expand their parking lots? 

That wouldn't surprise me. IIRC, they were already using Northpointe lots as overflow at certain times.

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On 4/20/2019 at 9:48 AM, GVSUChris said:

I see that Consumers Energy has filed an application with the Planning Commission for their GRHQ project, so there's one thing hopefully off your list soon! 

I didn't see this on the PC agenda for the next meeting. Have you seen it yet? 

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20 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

I didn't see this on the PC agenda for the next meeting. Have you seen it yet? 

No, I saw it on the development map thing on the city's website.  Here is what I found:

Project Description:

  501 Alabama Avenue NW (Special Land Use) (PC-SLU-2019-0131) Consumers Energy Company (Patrick Kelly) is requesting approval to provide parking in excess of the maximum parking permitted (more than 20% of the number of parking spaces required) for a new seven-story office building.
Edited by GVSUChris
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Seven stories!?!  Woohoo!  It's exciting to see the Bridge street corridor grow.  It's only a matter of time before the surface lots and empty buildings get redeveloped.

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3 hours ago, GVSUChris said:

No, I saw it on the development map thing on the city's website.  Here is what I found:

Project Description:

  501 Alabama Avenue NW (Special Land Use) (PC-SLU-2019-0131) Consumers Energy Company (Patrick Kelly) is requesting approval to provide parking in excess of the maximum parking permitted (more than 20% of the number of parking spaces required) for a new seven-story office building.

That's really weird, they must be doing more and more projects using "staff"approval and not going to publicly held meetings for review of these things. There's absolutely nothing online, even for the extra parking variance they requested.  Like the RDV HQ's. Maybe people don't like the design criticism they're getting on UP. :)

The earlier pictures showed a 5 story building (?) but with building blocks behind it. 

consumershqjpg-9a23e0d29b27a26f.jpg

 

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On 4/23/2019 at 10:21 AM, GRDadof3 said:

The post on my FB said the C-suite was relocating as well (and has been planned for some time). I deleted the post now as I'm not sure I want to be the one who can be traced to this leaking. :)

I didn't realize also that Spectrum's HR dept is in Bridgewater.  They are scattered around. 

Here it is:

https://www.grbj.com/articles/93546-spectrum-health-consolidating-26-leases-into-new-facility?fbclid=IwAR1qRBp1CxhYCVdxfbalgA7Mp3uVNmIU38FoaV02z2magVjmAzdKLwvi5QA

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2 hours ago, joeDowntown said:

Predictions on how big it'll be? Since this is in the predictions thread. :)

Consolidating 26 leases? 550,000 square feet! 

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On 12/12/2018 at 7:43 AM, GRDadof3 said:

It hasn't been talked about on here but I think I may add Kids Food Basket's new "farm" and operation HQ's on Leonard Street. Certainly doesn't fit our usual urban infill stuff but it's pretty phenomenal. 

https://www.grmag.com/2018/10/28/kids-food-basket-plants-the-seeds-for-growth-with-new-property/

The Kids Food Basket is open, and is a nice addition to the NE side.   As I said before, glad to see this property that was a family farm for decades, continue in the capacity as a part of the overall plan.   

https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2019/09/new-kids-food-basket-75m-facility-allows-it-to-serve-more-students-meals.html

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I'm already scheming and have to look back at my (potentially) horrible record of guesses last year. :) I'll do mine before the New Year, but feel free to get the predictions going!

Joe

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Ok, here we go!

Bank site on Bridge gets a proposed mixed use building. This will 8 stories tall with a small parking deck!

 

Convention center hotel gets the go ahead, with AHC taking over managing duties.

New Spectrum HQ gets moving forward 

Large Market site proposal dies

Lot next to arena on Ionia gets a proposal. 

Heres a wildcard: the two lots (and vacant Davenport building) along Louis across from Rosa Parks and the GRAM get a massive proposal for a development (think new development in Kalamazoo. Residential on top of parking with ground floor retail)

https://www.kalamazooexchange.com/construction/building-renderings/

Amphitheater goes nowhere

Campau Ramp gets media exposure, but nothing happens this year.

 

Edited by ironyisadeadscene
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Last year recap: 

PartialStudio C will finally force downtown retail to turn a corner. This will lead to something new and exiting in at least one of the major downtown vacancies (38 Commerce, 20 Fulton, Morton, etc.). 

True We won't see movement on the DeVos Convention Center Hotel. I think CAA will stall to see what occupancy is like after a bevy of hotels come online (Curio, AC Hotel, Hyatt Place, Residence Inn, Embassy Suites, etc.)

Nope We'll finally see movement at 201 Market, but it will differ in scope from the original proposal. 

Nope Gordon's or Bridge Street Market will be forced to reinvent themselves as neither really fills a true downtown grocery need. 

True, although Spectrum We'll see a flurry of development in Monroe North area with manufacturing moving out and residential/retail/restaurants coming in. This will stretch from 196 up to the Creston district. 

Partial (Sanchez) - A major, historical downtown restaurant will shutter or reinvent itself (Leo's, Gardella's, Sanchez, Bistro, Charley's Crab, etc.). 

Nope - Downtown USPS will finally move to coincide with Amazon warehouse opening and the weird bi-partisan tailwinds at play. DeVos will obviously be involved in some capacity. 

True Fragmentation of downtown parking payments will not improve. Motu will continue to frustrate. 

Partial (Texas de Brazil & Tupelo Honey aren't QSR) We'll see major corporate QSR players begin to invest in downtown. Think Chipotle, Five Guys, etc.

Nope Finally, this may be optimistic to some and pessimistic to others, we'll see the entrance of a scooter rental company (Bird or Lime). 

Partial (Founders did everything else possible to depress reputation) Founders will announce a significant brewery expansion in a major coastal city which will depress Grand Rapid's reputation as a craft beer destination.

Nope - Studio C will compete with the theater at UICA and ultimately force Kendall to make some difficult decisions with remaining at The Gallery. Ultimately, I think they move indie films back into 41 Sheldon and exhibitions are absorbed into the existing campus. 

Factual Law Project 1 will be ambitious, but fail to capture the momentum that ArtPrize had. It will bring great art to town, but will alienate a significant amount of attendees/patrons that enjoyed the kitschy crap that popped up every year. 

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2020 Predictions

1) Downtown Grand Rapids evolves more towards convention catering. More recognizable, concept brands (Texas de Brazil) begin to compete with local flavor. 

2) Founders capitulates and releases a hard seltzer, 2020 is a make or break year for the brand. 

3) Early success of Studio Park makes just about every downtown developer wonder what they thinking  over the past decade. While tower might be built on parking garage, people realize that the development was too small and added retail/food is desperately needed. 

 4) ArtPrize announces final year or is cancelled. 

5) John Ball Zoo neighborhood becomes the next gentrification zone. 

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On 12/28/2018 at 10:25 AM, egrguy said:

Here is my list:

#1. Like kwl said, I think the craft beer boom is over.  I think if you have solid financials and a good business plan, you'll stay in business and thrive, but I am worried about those that have maybe over extended themselves. (I thought that to be New Holland, but they are still expanding).  Nationally, it appears that spirits and marijuana are creating headwinds against beer in general.  With that being said, I think GR's distillers are probably in good position for continual growth for 2019.

Long Road, Eastern Kille, etc seem to be doing pretty well.  We've seen some brewery closures. Hideout, Kitzengen (its not really open still is it?), Boatyard in Kalamazoo closed, as did Arcadia. 

#2.  I don't think GRFC gets a stadium deal, unless there is a wealthy benefactor.  Granted, its wiki, but it looks like attendance is down about 50%? I enjoy soccer more than baseball, but for whatever reason I find myself going to 2-3 Whitecaps games a year versus only 1 GRFC game.  I think its just more of a family friendly event. I get zero interest to taking the family to a GRFC game. I hope I am wrong on this and they continue to grow, but for 2019, I see no progression for GRFC getting a bigger/soccer specific stadium.

I haven't paid attention stadium wise, but I feel joining USL League 2 is a move in the right direction long term.

 

On 12/28/2018 at 10:25 AM, egrguy said:

#3.  Investment into Rivertown will finally happen. They'll work to get some new to GR restaurants/stores to burnish its image. Cheesecake Factory or Crate & Barrel, I don't know the retail scene that well, but I think if there's any urgency there to keep that place moving forward and not collapsing like the development on north beltline, they get creative and add some new stuff to the area.

I think all of the development money really went into Woodland who got the Cheesecake Factory. 

 

On 12/28/2018 at 10:25 AM, egrguy said:

#4. I do not see the need for a Whole Foods in GR with D&W, Fresh Thyme, Meijer, Trader Joe's, etc. however, with their investment in the area, I do think we'll see a Whole Foods announced in 2019 and built in 2020.  With that, I also think we'll see a second Trader Joe's in the area (Rivertown/Metro Hospital or maybe the area by the Score on the way to Rockford)

Nothing here came to fruition.

#5. Announced plans for redevelopment in Gas Light Village.  

It was briefly announced ($35M) but no plans were presented to the city.

#6. Gerald R Ford airport will get several more direct flights added.  My guesses would be Salt Lake City or LA is next (I'd love to see something more north in CA like San Francisco or Seattle, but my money is on the first two)

GRR announced Milwaukee, New Orleans, and Jacksonville.

#7.  I think someone mentioned this earlier, but I also agree and I predict we'll see more chains moving DT (and I think this is a good thing). We'll see a CVS/Walgreens, standalone Starbucks location, and another restaurant chain enter the downtown scene. 

Texas de Brazil DT. No pharmacy yet.

#8. The hotel at the convention center gets announced in 2019/construction starts in 2020.

Just talk, no action.

#9. The MSU medical complex II starts and is bigger then initially announced and tops 400,000 sq ft.

From what I understand, rumors are that its smaller. 

#10.  Little or no movement on the Market sight.

Bummed, but it feels like this is dead/or 5-10 years down the road.

#11. We do see a 20+ story building announced (separate the convention hotel) 

Nope.

I will finalize my 2020 list in a bit.

 

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  • Correct > Lyon Square - Nothing Happens 
  • Partial > Calder Plaza - Plans are made toward the end of the year but confidence in anything actually happening is low.
  • Incorrect > RDV moves into new building but cosmetic upgrades are really minor.
  • Partial. Not topped out yet but is looking as good as the rendering so far. > Hinman Tower tops out. It looks just as good as the rendering.
  • ??? Fears of a recession toward the end of the year result in the Market project being scaled back or cancelled.
  • ??? Moderate-to-large residential developments continue in the suburbs and get little to no attention here until forum-goers stumble upon them by chance.
  • Correct > Convention Center Hotel moves forward, but veeeeery slooooooowly.
  • Correct > Library parking ramp gets decided, but no ground moving yet.
  • Incorrect > Another attempt is made at the Keeler.
  • Incorrect > A moderately-sized development is proposed along Division.
  • Incorrect > A moderately-sized development is proposed in the Market District, probably as a conversion of one of the old factory buildings on Godfrey or Century into apartments.
  • Incorrect > 196/96/Beltline and bridge over Grand River construction results in massive traffic backups and congestion, and demand for better infrastructure gets much louder, especially with commuters from Ada, Cascade, and Rockford being affected. Talks about mass transit options for these corridors arises with commuter trains that probably won't ever happen, or an east-side BRT-lite like Silver Line in cooperation with Spectrum.
  • Correct > Post Office still sits.
  • Incorrect > Chunks of land between Wealthy and Franklin are demolished for parking lots.
  • Incorrect > Chunks of land on the West Side are demolished for parking lots.
  • Incorrect > Chunks of land on the north side of 96 are demolished for parking lots.
  • Incorrect > Another development is proposed in the Michigan St. corridor, or north of 96 not necessarily in Belknap.
  • Correct > Panda Express attempts another location near Woodland.
  • Incorrect > Chik-Fil-A attempts another location on Alpine.
  • Correct > White Castle still is not here.
  • Correct > Whole Foods still is not here.
  • Correct > Groundbreaking for MSU Research Facility. It looks cool, but not super cool.
  • Incorrect > Frustrated by parking and 96 congestion from construction, another Downtown office moves to the burbs, possibly near Ada.
  • Incorrect > Rockford acquires more land and announces another development for its westside, but no renderings or additional information are available.
  • Correct > Whitmer tries to fix the damn roads, but gridlock in the legislature gets in the way.
  • Correct > Spectrum announces a new building.
  • Incorrect > A small development is proposed in Burton Heights with LIHTC.
  • Correct > Still no IKEA, and thus I will continue to have strong desires for swedish meatballs.

11/25.

Any of my correct/incorrects incorrect?

I really want some damn meatballs.

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On 12/24/2019 at 11:32 AM, arcturus said:

> Kitzengen (its not really open still is it?)

Alive and well last time I was there about 4 months ago.  Their German food is excellent.

Gosh, that's good to hear. I've heard all sorts of interesting rumors, but I don't make to that end of town too often.

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On 12/29/2018 at 10:57 AM, WMrapids said:

2019

• Nothing proposed over 12 stories

I think Acrisure is over 12 stories?

• No progress on convention center or hotel

Kinda, more talk at least

• No post office proposals

Yup

• No GRFC stadium

Yup

• No downtown CVS/Walgreens

Yup

• Few details about the Market project
Kinda. No details.

• Further expansion near the airport

Kinda

• Calder Plaza project will progress
Not really. :(

• Rendering for the MSU projects will be released. Construction will begin mid-2020?
So close. Just a few months off.

2020

• Nothing proposed over 12 stories

• DeVos Place hotel gets pushed through

• No post office proposals

• No stadiums announced

• No downtown CVS/Walgreens

• Amphitheater project goes away

• Spectrum project in North Monroe will underwhelm, but will be deemed necessary nonetheless. Scale of the project will still leave the neighborhood with large, spanned out buildings at a cost to pedestrian-friendly opportunities.

• Acrisure project will get scaled back slightly.

• Metro Village continues to be a glorified strip mall park

• Marijuana stores will continue to pop up in the southern part of the city and take the place of some vapor stores

• Van Andel Arena project will be a nice addition

• We will see one more large project take shape on the West Side

• New proposals for GRPS

• River project will announce a new phase to start in 2022

Edited by WMrapids
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2020 Stuff That Will Happen

  • Studio Park / Acrisure / hotel project will be more successful than people originally thought. As a result will drive more retail/restaurants to the southern part of DT. I do think we will see some new chain quick serve options. Starbucks, Jimmy John's, Chipotle, Wendy's (local franchise HQ is DT).
  • 2019 saw the Cheesecake Factory, Cooper's Hawk, Black Rock and Texas de Brazil coming to or announcing a GR location. We will continue to see new chains enter the GR market. Shake Shack, Yardhouse (is it still coming to Woodland?), BJ's Brewhouse, etc.
  • A pharmacy will be announced for DT in 2020.
  • The Bob initiates a re-brand.  Seems something like a Hampton Social or a Lucky's, etc would be a fit for more activities to do downtown. 
  • Founders will move past their corporate growing pains, continue to grow market share and will continue to diversify to stay relevant within the beer industry. I think they'll distribute their NA beer offering and will start doing hard seltzers. 
  • Bell's will add a GR Taproom (personal want here!)
  • Plans for the Gaslight Village development will be released (initial plans were around the $35M stage) but nothing formal was presented to the city.
  • A legacy carrier adds new non-stop flights from GRR. Boston, LA, SF, Salt Lake City, etc would be a nice addition, but think its more likely to see more direct flights offered by Allegiant, Frontier, etc.
  • Major investment announced to dramatically alter Rivertown is announced or it continues to slip into secondary status.

2020 Stuff That Wont Happen this year, but I think we could see happen in this decade)

  • GRFC sees investment into the team and continues to grow (perhaps a partnership with the Whitecaps on a new dual use stadium if the Whitecaps end up at the AA due to major alignment changes)
  • Market Project comes to fruition, but is dramatically changed from the initial plans shown as apart of the RFP
  • Police Station site gets purchased for a major development
  • Charley's Crab site gets major Devos funded project
  • GR metro passes Rochester, Buffalo, Birmingham and Hartford, CT to become a top 50 US Metro
  • Non stop flights to Hawaii and international flights are added from GRR to London, Mexico and the Carribean
  • Greater use of organized mass transit begins to occur

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3 hours ago, egrguy said:

legacy carrier adds new non-stop flights from GRR. Boston, LA, SF, Salt Lake City

SLC would be awesome (both of our airports are undergoing expansions at the moment, I could see it happen). As it stands right now, it is cheaper to do a ski trip to Alberta/British Columbia than Utah. Lift Tickets and Hotels are cheaper, and if you take discount airlines out of the equation, flights on the big three carriers are cheaper as well.

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4 hours ago, egrguy said:

GR metro passes Rochester, Buffalo, Birmingham and Hartford, CT to become a top 50 US Metro

GR metro would only need to pass Buffalo and Rochester to break into the Top 50 MSA's.   It will most likely pass Rochester in this years estimates release in May.    All it would need to pass Buffalo and Birmingham is for Barry County to be added back into the MSA in the 2023 alignment.  Even without that I agree that it should catch up to them in the next 5 years.  Hartford will be a bit more difficult in the next decade since it's got about 140k  more people than GR Metro.  The current growth rates would have to accelerate a bit for this to happen.  Most indicators are showing a slow down across the board for population growth so we shall see.   

In order for there to be an acceleration we would need to see one or two Fortune 500 companies relocate to the area.  The growing economic generator on the hill will continue to provide stable growth for the area , but the slowing manufacturing sector, and the current choke-hold on immigration will have a negative impact on the immediate growth rates.  I'm guessing we will see between .5%-8% population growth for 2019, compared to the 1%-1.2% per year the area has been seeing for the last decade.  I am expecting to see it even slower for 2020, 21.   It will definitely be interesting to see what happens. 

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23 hours ago, egrguy said:

2020 Stuff That Will Happen

  • Studio Park / Acrisure / hotel project will be more successful than people originally thought. As a result will drive more retail/restaurants to the southern part of DT. I do think we will see some new chain quick serve options. Starbucks, Jimmy John's, Chipotle, Wendy's (local franchise HQ is DT).
  • 2019 saw the Cheesecake Factory, Cooper's Hawk, Black Rock and Texas de Brazil coming to or announcing a GR location. We will continue to see new chains enter the GR market. Shake Shack, Yardhouse (is it still coming to Woodland?), BJ's Brewhouse, etc.
  • A pharmacy will be announced for DT in 2020.
  • The Bob initiates a re-brand.  Seems something like a Hampton Social or a Lucky's, etc would be a fit for more activities to do downtown. 
  • Founders will move past their corporate growing pains, continue to grow market share and will continue to diversify to stay relevant within the beer industry. I think they'll distribute their NA beer offering and will start doing hard seltzers. 
  • Bell's will add a GR Taproom (personal want here!)
  • Plans for the Gaslight Village development will be released (initial plans were around the $35M stage) but nothing formal was presented to the city.
  • A legacy carrier adds new non-stop flights from GRR. Boston, LA, SF, Salt Lake City, etc would be a nice addition, but think its more likely to see more direct flights offered by Allegiant, Frontier, etc.
  • Major investment announced to dramatically alter Rivertown is announced or it continues to slip into secondary status.

2020 Stuff That Wont Happen this year, but I think we could see happen in this decade)

  • GRFC sees investment into the team and continues to grow (perhaps a partnership with the Whitecaps on a new dual use stadium if the Whitecaps end up at the AA due to major alignment changes)
  • Market Project comes to fruition, but is dramatically changed from the initial plans shown as apart of the RFP
  • Police Station site gets purchased for a major development
  • Charley's Crab site gets major Devos funded project
  • GR metro passes Rochester, Buffalo, Birmingham and Hartford, CT to become a top 50 US Metro
  • Non stop flights to Hawaii and international flights are added from GRR to London, Mexico and the Carribean
  • Greater use of organized mass transit begins to occur

That's an interesting one. It definitely needs it, but they haven't even added the beer garden outside yet. 

I'll do my predictions when I get a chance..  I don't want to be a negative nancy but I don't think it will be an astounding year for new announcements. Unless someone wants to surprise me. :)

I went back through this thread and can't find my predictions for 2019. Hmmmm. 

Here goes for 2020:

) Calder Plaza will finally begin its redesign/reconstruction. 

) The convention center hotel proposal will stall. Amphitheater will also stall due to a lack of property. 

) A renovation of Devos Hall will be announced.

) The city will finally get off its a*s and start work on a new ramp, either at the library site, at Fulton and Ionia, or the Campau ramp. They will look for developer partners but will get no takers. There will also be talk of a new city ramp announced on the West Side, along Seward.

) A new project will be announced for the Ellis-owned lot opposite RDV HQ on Monroe (Monroe and Lyon). New office user to downtown, minimal height. 

) A new West Side project will be announced. Office user. 

) The Consumers Energy project on the West Side will be dumped.

) Acrisure will scale down its tower 2 at Studio Park. Or the tower will remain the same height as proposed and a second tenant will be announced.

) The residential tower at Studio Park will move forward with a 2021 start.

) Spectrum's Monroe North campus will be unveiled. Everyone will say "well at least it's infill." 

) Arnie Jones will finally sell his little power plant at Bond and Newberry, to Spectrum. 

) A new restaurant will be announced for the little piece of land at the South end of 820 Monroe. A new concept to the area.

) MSU will announce a new liner building on the West side of their new parking ramp being built. 2021 start.

) River restoration will finally get a huge chunk of cash to get started, 2022 start. 

) Nobody will be able to figure out how Metro Health is adding $1 Billion in development to its Metro Health Village. It will finally be pretty much filled in though. 

) The old Orbit Room complex will be announced as a demo with new retail infill

) A full service pharmacy will be announced for downtown.

) Gaslight Village plans will be unveiled. We'll all think it's pretty cool.

) Ada Village will get a sushi restaurant and a wine bar. Because if there's any place that needs both, it's Ada Village. 

) The Meijer family will not be outdone by the Walmart family in investing in trails and greenways (in Bentonville, $75 Million worth by a Walmart heir) and will honor Fred's legacy with an announcement of major investments to local paved trails, finally linking downtown with the White Pine Trail, Kent Trails, Musketawa Trail, Millennium Park/Standale Trail and other suburban trails. GR will finally be able to market itself as "step out of your door downtown and enjoy over 100 miles of paved trails." Which they can't claim now.  That one is my own personal wish.  :)

) I'll have more. Have to take a break...

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