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8 hours ago, Urban Mail Carrier said:

The millennials.. UCF has about 63,000 students. Imagine getting 10% of those students to use Sunrail or even 5%. Ridership will go up.

Since the absolute youngest millennials are in their late 20s and the oldest are in their early 40s, I don't think they compose the bulk of UCF students.  Maybe some adult education or doctorate students?

The rest I agree with.

 

As a lover of trains, I wish we had 20 routes around the Metro to take advantage of.  I am in it for the long vision and understand you should take a second route wherever it is easiest to get one.  People look at subways in places like NYC or London or Paris and don't realize how long they took to get off the ground.  NYC built the first line from Brooklyn to Manhattan and it took 13 years or so to get the 2nd line.  It took 91 years (1865-1956) to get the system we know (not counting the 5 new lines they've opened in most everyone here's lifetimes) as the NYC Subway up and going.  However, when it has been running our entire lives, you don't think about the time it took to get it that way.

I just know this line they are touting to get the tax passed didn't have really great ridership projections back several years ago.  I hope that isn't disheartening to some.

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10 hours ago, Urban Mail Carrier said:

The millennials.. UCF has about 63,000 students. Imagine getting 10% of those students to use Sunrail or even 5%. Ridership will go up.

It doesnt need to be said that you are grossly oversimplifying it.   But even based on what you wrote, running more direct buses on the 408 make more sense since it seems like we may agree that there is not a route that had the land use to support ridership between the UCF campus and  Fashion Square area at best.  

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18 hours ago, jrs2 said:

so, is CSX trying to do the same thing over in Hillsborough with those tracks? 

In Orlando, the deal went together with CSX diverting freight onto another track to the west, and also for them to get money for their new Intermodal freight center in Winter Haven, which they built.  It's almost as if they were going to do that anyway but threw in CRT in Orlando as a carrot and public relations-type of thing to take the voters' attention off of the $$$ they got to improve their real estate.  

I honestly don't know but I've heard how CSX can be to work with so I'm sure they'll try to pull something like this.
I think the county still wants to go with these tracks because the headaches they may get from dealing with CSX are likely going to be less severe than the ones they would encounter trying to build all new lines. 

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On 3/23/2022 at 3:02 AM, blt23 said:

I hope they publish the full plan documents soon, but my initial interpretation is that the existing Sunrail service will stay the same with frequencies of 30 min peak, 60 min midday, and nothing on evening or weekends. Orange County would then add a second service pattern that runs from the airport to the existing Sunrail tracks and north to Maitland (the northernmost station in Orange County) with frequencies of 30 min peak and 60 min midday, evenings, and weekends.

I'm skeptical that there's actually a solid plan for OBX. It feels like a political promise that people in the future will have to deal with the mess of.

There was an FDOT alternatives analysis done a few years back (2015) for the OBX route (https://metroplanorlando.org/wp-content/uploads/US-441-Viable-Alternatives-Final-Report-with-Appendices.pdf), and the recommendation was for the No Build Alternative,  based on a cost-benefit analysis of the full set of options.  Estimated ridership potential for all of the options requiring investment was quite low .  However, having a local funding source like a dedicated transportation tax changes the likelihood of obtaining grants through federal funding formulas, so the ranking of the options can change.  One thing missing from the analysis was the land use potential of the West Orange corridor through largely underdeveloped areas, which a fixed guideway transit option would make more attractive for denser development.  The Packing District as a concept didn't exist at the time of the study.  Here's a map illustrating the rail option proposed:

 

Screenshot 2022-03-25 at 14.23.09.png

Edited by jliv
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On 3/23/2022 at 3:48 PM, jrs2 said:

How would an OBX Line train get to Lynx, would it hit the main track and then back up in reverse?

If this was LRT, there would also be a station at the UCF bookstore adjacent to that garage in CV.  

The original proposal had a line running from Orlando Health/Amtrak to Church Street and onto the OBX tracks, which would be a block away from the Lynx Central Station.   In this case, Church Street Station becomes the key transfer point.  Add in an airport connection, and it becomes a vibrant intermodal hub (perhaps the OBX line will be incorporated into the airport route as an Orange County-only line between Zellwood and MCO).  Given that the overall proposal for transit improvements funded by a new tax includes doubling the bus fleet, and BRT (e.g. articulated, fast-loading, fast-moving buses) may make Lynx Central Station inadequate in its current form.   IMHO a larger transit hub is needed, including a private bus terminal for Greyhound, Megabus, etc.  and ride-sharing pickup spaces, not to mention potential future LRT/streetcar connections.

Edited by jliv
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Well that’s why I said STUDIES need to be performed and as we both are aware that takes years. Expanding on your idea of utilizing the 408 east-west which I 100% agree with, l hope the CF expressway authority merges with Lynx and Sunrail. I believe merging the 3 agencies would provide 2 sources of funding and it would resolve ROW issues.

1 hour ago, Jernigan said:

It doesnt need to be said that you are grossly oversimplifying it.   But even based on what you wrote, running more direct buses on the 408 make more sense since it seems like we may agree that there is not a route that had the land use to support ridership between the UCF campus and  Fashion Square area at best.  

 

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  • 4 months later...
44 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

Vote on Lynx running SunRail is stalled by Seminole, Volusia
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/transportation/os-ne-sunrail-local-takeover-20220804-jpbg6h2nfvd7nirzguuzj7pcoy-story.html

From The Sentinel 

Afaict, they’re just being territorial. Stay tuned.
 

as for Volusia, they've got Votran; I wonder if there's anything there... but Seminole uses Lynx...

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48 minutes ago, jrs2 said:

as for Volusia, they've got Votran; I wonder if there's anything there... but Seminole uses Lynx...

Demings, Dyer and the Osceola lady are 3 of the 5 votes, so they have a majority (unless they need a supermajority?) They seemed calm so this is likely political theater.

It’s ingrained in Volusia folks (especially on the beachside) to loathe Orlando day-trippers. Jeff also gets caught up in his MAGA rhetoric sometimes but then in the end is usually sane. Not sure what Dalari’s deal is, unless he’s just letting Lee Constantine know he’s boss now. We’ll see.

Edited by spenser1058
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  • 1 month later...

Good news from Florida’s Natural Choice:

Seminole recommends Lynx operate the SunRail system in 2024


https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/seminole-county/os-ne-seminole-county-sunrail-lynx-20220913-xme5cpo54zfq5b355y6bciqzd4-story.html

From The Sentinel 

Now just waiting for Volusia .

Edited by spenser1058
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Another bonus seems to be the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission is composed of elected officials from Orlando and the counties (Lynx is similar, without Volusia, and with the district FDOT head). That keeps decision-making and accountability in a much better place than CFX or GOAA, which are mostly composed of the Governor’s appointees (and what a scary lot they’ve been).

I do wonder if this will bring VoTran into closer alignment with Lynx over time. I think that would be a major plus.

 

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On 3/25/2022 at 10:33 AM, jliv said:

There was an FDOT alternatives analysis done a few years back (2015) for the OBX route (https://metroplanorlando.org/wp-content/uploads/US-441-Viable-Alternatives-Final-Report-with-Appendices.pdf), and the recommendation was for the No Build Alternative,  based on a cost-benefit analysis of the full set of options.  Estimated ridership potential for all of the options requiring investment was quite low .  However, having a local funding source like a dedicated transportation tax changes the likelihood of obtaining grants through federal funding formulas, so the ranking of the options can change.  One thing missing from the analysis was the land use potential of the West Orange corridor through largely underdeveloped areas, which a fixed guideway transit option would make more attractive for denser development.  The Packing District as a concept didn't exist at the time of the study.  Here's a map illustrating the rail option proposed:

 

Screenshot 2022-03-25 at 14.23.09.png

I REALLY wish this would have some solid traction! It would be HUGE for the area.

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Yesterday,  the Sunrail board unanimously approved a shared corridor with Brightline from OIA to Epic/ OCCC with a stop near WDW on S. International. 

The resolution allows the locals to pursue Fed money for the expansion.

This is not new news, other than that what we had heard was going to happen is now official and none of the partners (ie Volusia) voted against it.

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2022/09/22/sunrail-sunshine-corridor-brightline-orlando.html?cx_testId=40&cx_testVariant=cx_11&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s

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On 8/4/2022 at 4:17 PM, spenser1058 said:

Demings, Dyer and the Osceola lady are 3 of the 5 votes, so they have a majority (unless they need a supermajority?) They seemed calm so this is likely political theater.

It’s ingrained in Volusia folks (especially on the beachside) to loathe Orlando day-trippers. Jeff also gets caught up in his MAGA rhetoric sometimes but then in the end is usually sane. Not sure what Dalari’s deal is, unless he’s just letting Lee Constantine know he’s boss now. We’ll see.

Did you just acknowledge political theater?

In the words of the original Jabba from the deleted scene in Star Wars depicting Jabba as the fur clad Irish mobster (later reincorporated with a superimposed CG Jabba ala Jedi, first seen in the Special Edition), I say:

'Spensah mah boy'!

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