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UTgrad09

2013 Tennessee Metro Population Estimates

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 WOW! Middle Tennessee is truly blowing the rest of the state out of the water. The numbers really do say it all.

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Thanks for putting this together Kevin. I am really interested in what the 2013 numbers will.

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I don't know much when it comes to understanding these numbers. But would a 1.8% growth in metro Nashville be considered healthy? Is that just a typical year, or considered high/low? I still am not sure how I feel about combining Murfreesboro in Metro Nashville. Sure it sounds great saying Metro Nashville is 1.8 million, but to me going that far to add numbers feels like cheating.

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It's healthy, but still less than true boom towns.  1.8% per year (if continued) would compound to around 19% growth over a decade.  Assuming this rate continues until the next census in 2020, the MSA population will be just shy of 2 million.   

Edited by MLBrumby

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I don't know much when it comes to understanding these numbers. But would a 1.8% growth in metro Nashville be considered healthy? Is that just a typical year, or considered high/low? I still am not sure how I feel about combining Murfreesboro in Metro Nashville. Sure it sounds great saying Metro Nashville is 1.8 million, but to me going that far to add numbers feels like cheating.

 

1.8% ranks 11th nationally among metro areas with 1,000,000+ residents. I'd say anything over 1% annually is probably pretty healthy. Some places, like Knoxville and Chattanooga, are doing fine at 0.5-0.7%, though that may be a tad slow for the type of growth we want to see (more urban infill!). Beyond 2.0% and growth starts to feel a little hectic. I'm fine with our present rate. I'm not sure I want to see it increase, especially with a legislature that doesn't seem to know how to handle that one portion of the state is receiving the bulk of the growth.

 

As for Murfreesboro, don't feel bad that they are included. They should be. It's not based on a whim or numbers padding. It's based on commuting patterns, and Rutherford County has significant interaction with the Nashville area, especially Davidson and Williamson Counties (check the parking lots of the Williamson County office parks -- tons of Rutherford). I don't think it's cheating, but I think some of the smaller counties are a bit more of a stretch. Again, it's based on commuting patterns, and right now, job opportunities are much greater in the urban areas. And the smallest 5 counties (Trousdale, Cannon, Smith, Macon, Hickman) only add about 27,000...and the 5 core counties account for 1,429,000 of the total number. So 1,757,000 seems about right. It's a large geographic area, but the population is mostly concentrated in the biggest counties.

 

 WOW! Middle Tennessee is truly blowing the rest of the state out of the water. The numbers really do say it all.

 

It's funny...the way they do the releases for the Census Bureau, they release the state population stats in December, then the counties/metros in March, and then the cities in May.

 

When they released the state numbers, I noticed that Tennessee had only grown by 41,064 from 2012-2013. It was 56,553 from 2011-2012. 

 

Just by living here, I knew that Nashville was still growing at a pretty good clip...but I didn't know if it the rate had slowed a little bit. Nashville's MSA grew by 28,599 from 2011-2012. I figured we might have dropped to the 24-26,000 range for annual growth. I was slightly (and only slightly) surprised to see that it had actually increased. I had a sneaking suspicion that we might have -- but that would come at an even greater expense to the rest of the state.

 

Tennessee's growth (without the Nashville MSA):

2011-2012 - +27,954

2012-2013 - +9,911

 

Nashville's share of Tennessee's growth:

2011-2012 - 50.6%

2012-2013 - 75.9%

 

Thanks for putting this together Kevin. I am really interested in what the 2013 numbers will.

 

You are welcome. It's a lot of work...but I enjoy messing around with stats. There's a lot more information out there, like components of change (natural increase, domestic and international migration), that sheds even more light on what is happening in Tennessee, but that's a whole different project for a different day...or month.

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It's healthy, but still less than true boom towns.  1.8% per year (if continued) would compound to around 19% growth over a decade.  Assuming this rate continues until the next census in 2020, the MSA population will be just shy of 2 million.   

 

We're actually right with a lot of the boom towns. As I said before, we rank 11th in growth rate among cities with 1,000,000+ metros. Only Austin, Raleigh, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando, Denver, Dallas, Washington, Charlotte, and Oklahoma City are growing faster since 2010. As nashmoney's link shows, we were actually 7th in growth from 2012-2013, ahead of Charlotte and Oklahoma City.

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 WOW! Middle Tennessee is truly blowing the rest of the state out of the water. The numbers really do say it all.

 

And yet our lawmakers (idiots) don't understand that middle TN is a big contributor and factor to the state.

 

I guess they don't look at stuff like Census numbers and job growth...etc.

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The Clarksville statistics don't seem correct to me they might have been taken when Fort Campbell was deployed. I know the area has grown 40,000 plus since 2000 residential construction hasn't slowed down either. I know of 40 plus subdivisions, town homes and apartments being built right now and many more recently completed.

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The Clarksville statistics don't seem correct to me they might have been taken when Fort Campbell was deployed. I know the area has grown 40,000 plus since 2000 residential construction hasn't slowed down either. I know of 40 plus subdivisions, town homes and apartments being built right now and many more recently completed.

 

Agreed. A regression in Clarksville and Montgomery Co. population seems unlikely.

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Agreed. A regression in Clarksville and Montgomery Co. population seems unlikely.

 

The Clarksville statistics don't seem correct to me they might have been taken when Fort Campbell was deployed. I know the area has grown 40,000 plus since 2000 residential construction hasn't slowed down either. I know of 40 plus subdivisions, town homes and apartments being built right now and many more recently completed.

 

I figure it has to have something to do with Ft. Campbell, as Christian County was heavily affected as well...and the percentage decrease was much higher than other places that truly are struggling.

 

Even though there is a lot of methodology that goes into the Census estimates, they shouldn't necessarily be taken as 'accurate'. It's really just an educated guess using all the available statistical means. The '13 estimate may simply be a correction of a very, very high '12 estimate. Or it may be a change in how military personnel are counted (I noticed population decreases in several other locales with large military populations, but I have no investigated further).

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I didn't realize Memphis was doing as badly as it was... Heck, Knoxville has had more people move in than Memphis has.  I suppose it's not the most desirable place to live, but I expected higher growth than that.

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