West Michigan/Grand Rapids Economy

[GRDadof3]

Numbers are in for August, more of the same, 2.5% annual year-over-year growth. FYI Denver has only been growing at 1.8% annually for the last couple of years.

This graph is almost a statistician's wet dream. If we actually make it to early 2019 with this growth rate, it will be probably one of the longest largest uninterrupted economic expansions in GR's history. At least since the government has been tracking this kind of thing. 

 

 

 

 

Other notable metro areas:

Columbus OH - 2.1%

Charlotte NC - 2.6%

Raleigh NC - 3.6%

Indianapolis 1.8%

Mpls 2.3%

Atlanta 3.2%

Pittsburgh .9%

Des Moines 3.1%

Kansas City, MO 1.6%

Nashville 3.0%

Washington DC/Northern Virginia 2.0%

Chicago .5%

Salt Lake City 2.0%

Boise 4.1%

Portland OR 2.3%

Sacramento 1.7%

Austin 2.1%

Houston 1.8%

Boston 2.3%

 

 

 

[GRLaker]

We're #1!

http://www3.forbes.com/leadership/10-big-u-s-cities-with-the-fastest-growing-economies/11/

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, GRLaker said:

We're #1!

http://www3.forbes.com/leadership/10-big-u-s-cities-with-the-fastest-growing-economies/11/

I think this was in the news a few months ago. Forbes may be re-running it. 

[GRLaker]

1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

I think this was in the news a few months ago. Forbes may be re-running it. 

Ahhh, yes. You are correct. They do have a tendency to circle back around with these articles.

[arcturus]

Fascinating look at where the jobs will and won't be.  Be sure to read the projection tables ... Michigan has a tough task ahead.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/business/economy/future-jobs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Go phlebotomists and bicycle repairers!

 

[GRDadof3]

Grand Rapids continues its 2.5% annual job growth, for September:

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm

[arcturus]

On 10/26/2017 at 9:24 AM, GRDadof3 said:

Grand Rapids continues its 2.5% annual job growth, for September:

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm

Construction, leisure & hospitality leading the way.  Makes sense with all the hotel/motel/apartment construction. 

[GRDadof3]

6 hours ago, arcturus said:

Construction, leisure & hospitality leading the way.  Makes sense with all the hotel/motel/apartment construction. 

Manufacturing, Financial Services and Education and Health Services aren't bad either.  #diversity

[discgrab21]

https://mibiz.com/item/25235-lack-of-available-workers-begins-to-hit-manufacturing-output?platform=hootsuite

 

Knew this was coming.  Gotta boost wages and build housing to try and keep up with demand.

[GRDadof3]

3 hours ago, discgrab21 said:

https://mibiz.com/item/25235-lack-of-available-workers-begins-to-hit-manufacturing-output?platform=hootsuite

 

Knew this was coming.  Gotta boost wages and build housing to try and keep up with demand.

Yes! Like the townhouses they're trying to build where Mangiamo is. Build it! 

[getemngo]

On 6/26/2017 at 10:02 AM, GVSUChris said:

I really wasn't sure where to put this. I know we've been having this conversation in other threads (Wealthy Street, etc.) but I found it very interesting. 

 

https://mibiz.com/news/real-estate/item/24898-gr-nonprofit-housing-group-in-talks-to-acquire-177-property-portfolio

 

On 6/26/2017 at 2:28 PM, organsnyder said:

This is amazing news (dare I say "game-changing"?)! Congratulations on this effort—really looking forward to where this leads.

http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2017/06/177_homes_sold_to_west_michiga.html

And it's a done deal: http://www.grbj.com/articles/89440-nonprofit-closes-on-purchase-of-177-properties-for-affordable-housing

"There a few other key goals ICCF has for the properties:

• Partnering with other local housing nonprofits to assure 50 percent of the homes are sold to low- and moderate-income households within 5-10 years, ensuring current tenants who desire to purchase their homes are able to do so
• Investing $4.5 million to improve the properties, particularly increasing energy efficiency and environmental stability, with at least 75 percent of the properties meeting the Green Home Institute’s standards for Green Star Certification
• Hiring local contractors who are committed to employing low-income residents from the homes’ neighborhoods"

[GRDadof3]

This is good news, must've missed it when it came out:

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2017/12/wages_in_west_michigan_are_goi.html

One of the highlights: general office wages rose 11% in 2017.

[GRDadof3]

For some strange reason there was a "lull," a "blip" in the red hot local employment picture in the early parts of the 4th quarter, but it shot up again in the December numbers. In fact, almost 16,000 payroll jobs over the last period last year.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26243400000000001?amp%3bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true

 

 

[GRDadof3]

2017 population growth estimates are out and I can't believe @MJLO hasn't posted this yet.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/05/detroits_population_still_fall.html?appSession=6Y6127QV8989476H9W44BXVETC1V04RCZ258WG661RE1I9Z2G2HBDCMH9J8N81G8G46L4A2AI7CN3N80BQFFLHQC4YNQEK05E1N988499Q222379Z4MY3V3C0A88Q0XM

City of GR sits at 198,829 (estimated) which I believe is the highest historically. 

Kent County keeps growing healthily at 648,594. 

[MJLO]

1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

2017 population growth estimates are out and I can't believe @MJLO hasn't posted this yet.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/05/detroits_population_still_fall.html?appSession=6Y6127QV8989476H9W44BXVETC1V04RCZ258WG661RE1I9Z2G2HBDCMH9J8N81G8G46L4A2AI7CN3N80BQFFLHQC4YNQEK05E1N988499Q222379Z4MY3V3C0A88Q0XM

City of GR sits at 198,829 (estimated) which I believe is the highest historically. 

Kent County keeps growing healthily at 648,594. 

Hah!  Yes all of this adulting I've had to deal with over the last few weeks has been prohibitive on my nerd hobbies.   Below is a quick snap shot of what I call the "GR 7".  The 6 municipalities that immediately border Grand Rapids.  Together if they were to consolidate with GR they create a 141 sq mi box with almost 400k residents.

This years estimates signal that Grand Rapids has indeed grown past its previous peak population.  It also means that the city will likely surpass that 200k mark that has eluded it for decades by next years estimates.  The growth numbers for the city surged this year compared to previous years a solid 1.3% growth rate for the year.  The other cities around the core showed a bit of softening growth.  If I were a betting man I'd say that is most likely due to the housing crunch in the area that's pushing newer/prospective residents and home buyers further out into exurban areas.  Allendale Twp added more than 1000 residents according to the release which puts it at 4% year over year growth(not something to balk at).  Also to note they have estimated that the city of Wyoming has now surpassed the city of Kalamazoo in population making it the 2nd largest city on this half of the state.   

As the weekend progresses I will have more time to post my full nerd breakdown.  But for now  ......

[Pattmost20]

GR jumped 3 cities since 2016, Little Rock, Akron, and Augusta. I was thinking our growth might have slowed a bit, but it actually picked up a bit.

It seems like some of the bigger cities had a significant slow down in growth. NYC added 33,000 between 2015-16 while only 7200 between 2016-17, LA dropped from 27,000 to 18,000, and Chicago continues to lose people. Houston, Phoenix, and San Diego all had minor slow downs in growth, Dallas and San Antonio stayed about the same, and Philly sped up a bit.

[GRLaker]

29 minutes ago, Pattmost20 said:

GR jumped 3 cities since 2016, Little Rock, Akron, and Augusta. I was thinking our growth might have slowed a bit, but it actually picked up a bit.

It seems like some of the bigger cities had a significant slow down in growth. NYC added 33,000 between 2015-16 while only 7200 between 2016-17, LA dropped from 27,000 to 18,000, and Chicago continues to lose people. Houston, Phoenix, and San Diego all had minor slow downs in growth, Dallas and San Antonio stayed about the same, and Philly sped up a bit.

This goes along with articles floating around that indicate that millennials are moving to mid-size cities over their larger city counterparts.

 

[GRLaker]

10 hours ago, MJLO said:

Hah!  Yes all of this adulting I've had to deal with over the last few weeks has been prohibitive on my nerd hobbies.   Below is a quick snap shot of what I call the "GR 7".  The 6 municipalities that immediately border Grand Rapids.  Together if they were to consolidate with GR they create a 141 sq mi box with almost 400k residents.

This years estimates signal that Grand Rapids has indeed grown past its previous peak population.  It also means that the city will likely surpass that 200k mark that has eluded it for decades by next years estimates.  The growth numbers for the city surged this year compared to previous years a solid 1.3% growth rate for the year.  The other cities around the core showed a bit of softening growth.  If I were a betting man I'd say that is most likely due to the housing crunch in the area that's pushing newer/prospective residents and home buyers further out into exurban areas.  Allendale Twp added more than 1000 residents according to the release which puts it at 4% year over year growth(not something to balk at).  Also to note they have estimated that the city of Wyoming has now surpassed the city of Kalamazoo in population making it the 2nd largest city on this half of the state.   

As the weekend progresses I will have more time to post my full nerd breakdown.  But for now  ......

I could see Walker, Kentwood, and Wyoming going along with such a move. Grandville, GR Twp, and EGR never would. 351,336 would be a nice sized city though.

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, GRLaker said:

This goes along with articles floating around that indicate that millennials are moving to mid-size cities over their larger city counterparts.

 

Exactly, it's all related to skyrocketing housing costs in the big cities, especially the trendy ones. I read an article about people living 90 minutes to 2 hours away from areas like Seattle and Silicon Valley because that's how far you have to go to find affordable housing for many people. "Drive til you qualify."  I can't imagine being in my car for 3 - 4 hours a day just to get to and from my workplace. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattles-mega-commuters-we-are-spending-more-time-than-ever-traveling-to-work/

But why do that when you can move to a very decent mid-sized metro area with convenient amenities (ie Grand Rapids).  

https://www.curbed.com/2018/5/1/17306978/career-millennial-home-buying-second-city

[joeDowntown]

Thought this was an interesting snapshot of  15 metro areas in Michigan. 

https://www.mlive.com/expo/erry-2018/05/ed2f4c56bc9900/michigan_metro_area.html

[GRDadof3]

4 hours ago, joeDowntown said:

Thought this was an interesting snapshot of  15 metro areas in Michigan. 

https://www.mlive.com/expo/erry-2018/05/ed2f4c56bc9900/michigan_metro_area.html

It looks great for us but it's really depressing seeing how many down-and-out Michigan metro areas there are. 

[MJLO]

3 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

It looks great for us but it's really depressing seeing how many down-and-out Michigan metro areas there are. 

It's harder for smaller metros to shift out of stagnation in general right now across the country.   The 3 largest metro areas in Michigan are either gaining residents at a healthy rate, or gaining momentum toward a healthy rate.  I think that's pretty good news for the state.  I think Michigan will continue to see a consolidation from the minor metros and rural areas into the larger cities for the foreseeable future. 

Below are the updated municipal numbers for the communities that more or less make up the urban areas of select  cities in the metro area for those who are interested.   The bulk of Ottawa Counties growth remains in Grand Rapids western suburbs which are growing at nearly double the rate of the rest of the region.  I believe this will further strengthen the commuter numbers between the two counties for the 2023 metro realignment.  It's unlikely that we will see Holland/Grand Haven classified as an independent metro again.  The urbanized area of Grand Rapids has accounted for almost 2/3rds of the population growth for Michigan as a whole.  I do think growth momentum has started to slow a bit as economic numbers also appear to be leveling off.  I think the area will see a small softening of numbers in the next few years leading up to the 2020 census(gaining, but at a bit slower rates).

Grand Rapids urbanized area:

The communities around Muskegon keep going back and forth between declines and gains and haven't moved much in population.  Muskegon County is experiencing some growth  in the more rural townships in the northern and eastern parts of the county.   However 2017 estimates show an uptick in growth.  Still well below the other counties in the area. 

Muskegon urbanized area:

The urbanized Holland area is showing modest gains, slowed per previous years.  

Holland urbanized area:

The Grand Haven area continues to grow faster than Holland, but still slower than Grand Rapids.  I don't know if this growth is due to the several companies in Grand Haven attracting talent, or if it's more over flow from GR's tight housing market heading west.  I work in the area and there are several housing developments with dozens of housing starts in Grand Haven Twp. and to a lesser extent in Robinson Twp. 

Grand Haven urbanized area:

[GRDadof3]

I think you're right @MJLO it's hard to find a metro under 1 million in the US that is thriving. Even in fast growing NC  outside of Raleigh, Charlotte or Asheville you're not growing very fast. 

[Guest]

I know there are a ton of factors that go into population growth and decline.  They can be mostly economical, but one thing a lot of the metros that are growing have in common are  the fact that they are home to major Universities.  At Western, a lot of my friends were from places like Flint, Jackson, Niles, Benton Harbor, Northern Michigan, etc.  A lot of them came to Kalamazoo and after graduating stayed in the area.  Same goes for GVSU, a lot of east siders who decide to stay in GR rather than return to metro Detroit.  Cities growing are Grand Rapids, Detroit, Kalamazoo, South Bend, Ann Arbor,  and Lansing.  Cities declining are Battle Creek, Flint, Saginaw, Jackson, Midland, Bay City, Monroe, Benton Harbor.  Just a thought.

[The ATX]

I always thought that that migration to the South and West would slowdown significantly during an extended economic boom enjoyed by the entire U.S. like we are having now.  I based that on my belief that people follow job growth.  But I stopped believing that because many Midwestern and Northeastern cities like Grand Rapids are having excellent job growth along with low unemployment rates - yet the migration to the Sunbelt and West continues.  Now I'm trying to figure out what is keeping that trend intact.  Is it simply the dislike for winter weather?