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West Michigan/Grand Rapids Economy


GRDadof3

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1 hour ago, mpchicago said:

Chevron moving Grand Rapids headquarters to Naperville

Is this a sign of companies not having luck finding qualified workers/talent in West Michigan, or what?  Obviously, Chicago is a strong labor market, with lots of talent, but the business, tax, and government environments are awful here (in Illinois).  And this on the heals that GE Aviation announcement that they are laying off about 70 people in Cascade Twp too, mostly engineers. At GE they claimed that the layoffs were due to a slowdown in the aviation market.

 

 

I think it's Chervon, not Chevron (which is a gas station chain). 

I'm confused, I thought they have a really small presence here on Ionia. Why are they leasing 124,000 sf in Naperville? Consolidating production? 

This was back a few years ago, but it says there were just 29 people here:

http://www.rapidgrowthmedia.com/innovationnews/0501ego.aspx

Also, GE Aviation always seems to be expanding and contracting. The aviation industry seems a bit more up-and-down than automotive or office furniture. They'll get a bunch of massive orders one year and then be anemic a few years later, totally independent of how the overall economy is doing. That's my perception anyway. 

 

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55 minutes ago, wingbert said:

How is this possible?  West Michigan embraced Donald Trump.  He promised this wouldn't happen.  Where's our beloved Betsy Devos in all this?  Is she too busy fighting off grizzly bears attacking the aviation academy?

 

Must of been that last minute Obama mischief.  He had 8 yrs, Trump's just 3 days to correct.  

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Non-farm employment in the area continues to chug along up the mountain. This is the non-alternative-fact version, straight from Bureau of Labor Statistics (which has nothing to gain by misstating data). December rate was 2.4% better than December of last year. 2.4% annual isn't great for a mutual fund but is pretty good for job growth. 

 

32355316552_4d2fde06ba_z.jpg

 

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm#eag

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1 hour ago, arcturus said:

Construction led the sector (assuming mining and timber were benign).  Oddly 'Information' which I assume includes IT was the worst, down 1.9%.  Maybe Switch will give it a boost.

IT has been pretty stagnant in the area for a while, I've noticed. Never really recovering from the storm. 

GR IT work.JPG

Jenison and Forest Hills ranked in the top 10 healthiest housing markets in the country. They use some pretty interesting methodology, but pretty impressive.

https://smartasset.com/mortgage/mortgage-calculator?year=2017#map

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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...
8 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

Jobs numbers are out; the local jobs market continues to expand, in almost a perfect trajectory. Going on year 7?  (January to January)

 

33265530542_237f129a10_b.jpg

7 years of growth- That's impossible! Trump has only been in office since January! Nice Fake News GRDad! next your going to tell me the earth is more than 2017 years old! Haha. :)

On a serious note my wife heard Birgit Klohs speak and she said they have companies that would like to move / expand in GR but our workforce is so tight, they won't. I guess that is a good problem?

Joe

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  • 1 month later...

It was bound to happen, with how much Grand Rapids is being hyped for a good place to settle down, that the labor force has recently outpaced employment growth, leading to a small uptick in the unemployment rate (went from 3.4% unemployment last February to 3.7% this February).

Non-farm employment growth was still 2.8% year over year, putting it in the top jobs producing markets (tied with Raleigh NC)

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm

Charlotte NC had 3.2%

Raleigh NC had 2.8%

Austin TX had 2.7%

Houston TX had .6% (?)

Denver had 2.0%

Seattle had 2.9%

Portland had 1.9%

Indy had 2.3%

Atlanta had 3.6%

Northern VA-Washington DC had 2.0%

Chicago .9%

Orlando 4.3%

Nashville 3.9%

https://www.bls.gov/regions/home.htm

100,000+ more people are employed in GR metro than at the end of the recession in 09/10. Let that sink in for a minute. That's half the population of the city of Grand Rapids. 

 

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Something that I (and maybe I'm the only one) found interesting is that the area's large growth in population doesn't seem to have impacted high school enrollments. In fact, high school enrollments continue to have a downward trend. The last few years, the city itself has lost over 260 high school students total between 2014 and 2016, the inner ring suburbs have lost over 30 students total (all but one school with growth were in largely Hispanic areas), and the outer ring suburbs have lost over 50 students total (with Hudsonville being the biggest exception to the trend in the whole region).

I'm sure there are multiple factors that go into this - like aging population, millennials moving in and not having kids old enough yet, decrease in child births after 2000, etc. Either way...I just found it interesting that our region is growing quite a bit, but our school enrollments continue to fall. I wish there was a way to look at K-8 enrollments as well, but the MHSAA doesn't track that. Also, going farther back than 2014 didn't really help the cause either. The downward trend in the area has been pretty steady.

 

City        
School 2016 2015 2014  
Union 1,810 1,798 1,837 -27
Ottawa Hills 1,020 1,270 1,280 -260
GR Christian 896 912 905 -9
Catholic Central 646 644 658 -12
West Catholic 505 475 442 63
NorthPointe Christian 327 330 345 -18
Total 7,221 7,445 7,482 -263
         
Inner Suburban Ring        
School 2016 2015 2014  
East Kentwood 2,639 2,596 2,581 58
Grandville 1,750 1,810 1,825 -75
Wyoming 1,238 1,288 1,211 27
Northview 1,118 1,145 1,183 -65
East Grand Rapids 1,010 979 975 35
Kenowa Hills 959 1,032 1,030 -71
Godwin Heights 679 645 602 39
Kelloggsville 678 650 640 38
Comstock Park 636 665 682 -46
South Christian 602 621 625 -23
Lee 558 503 491 67
Calvin Christian 340 346 360 -20
Total 14224 14296 14220 -36
         
Second Layer Suburban      
School 2016 2015 2014  
Rockford 2,485 2,563 2,561 -76
Hudsonville 1,893 1,797 1,763 130
Caledonia 1,474 1,456 1,476 -2
Jenison High School 1,457 1,481 1,418 39
Forest Hills Central 1,258 1,316 1,304 -46
Forest Hills Northern 1,108 1,100 1,124 -16
Byron Center 1,083 1,070 1,070 13
Forest Hills Eastern 794 798 828 -34
Unity Christian 606 629 665 -59
Total 14175 14226 14224 -51
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50 minutes ago, GRLaker said:

Something that I (and maybe I'm the only one) found interesting is that the area's large growth in population doesn't seem to have impacted high school enrollments. In fact, high school enrollments continue to have a downward trend. The last few years, the city itself has lost over 260 high school students total between 2014 and 2016, the inner ring suburbs have lost over 30 students total (all but one school with growth were in largely Hispanic areas), and the outer ring suburbs have lost over 50 students total (with Hudsonville being the biggest exception to the trend in the whole region).

I'm sure there are multiple factors that go into this - like aging population, millennials moving in and not having kids old enough yet, decrease in child births after 2000, etc. Either way...I just found it interesting that our region is growing quite a bit, but our school enrollments continue to fall. I wish there was a way to look at K-8 enrollments as well, but the MHSAA doesn't track that. Also, going farther back than 2014 didn't really help the cause either. The downward trend in the area has been pretty steady.

 

City        
School 2016 2015 2014  
Union 1,810 1,798 1,837 -27
Ottawa Hills 1,020 1,270 1,280 -260
GR Christian 896 912 905 -9
Catholic Central 646 644 658 -12
West Catholic 505 475 442 63
NorthPointe Christian 327 330 345 -18
Total 7,221 7,445 7,482 -263
         
Inner Suburban Ring        
School 2016 2015 2014  
East Kentwood 2,639 2,596 2,581 58
Grandville 1,750 1,810 1,825 -75
Wyoming 1,238 1,288 1,211 27
Northview 1,118 1,145 1,183 -65
East Grand Rapids 1,010 979 975 35
Kenowa Hills 959 1,032 1,030 -71
Godwin Heights 679 645 602 39
Kelloggsville 678 650 640 38
Comstock Park 636 665 682 -46
South Christian 602 621 625 -23
Lee 558 503 491 67
Calvin Christian 340 346 360 -20
Total 14224 14296 14220 -36
         
Second Layer Suburban      
School 2016 2015 2014  
Rockford 2,485 2,563 2,561 -76
Hudsonville 1,893 1,797 1,763 130
Caledonia 1,474 1,456 1,476 -2
Jenison High School 1,457 1,481 1,418 39
Forest Hills Central 1,258 1,316 1,304 -46
Forest Hills Northern 1,108 1,100 1,124 -16
Byron Center 1,083 1,070 1,070 13
Forest Hills Eastern 794 798 828 -34
Unity Christian 606 629 665 -59
Total 14175 14226 14224 -51

School enrollment as a whole is up though from what I understand.  It would be interesting to understand the bulk of the demographic coming into the area.  I would think it's largely families without high school age children, and younger post collegiate millennials with no children. I can see where that wouldn't translate to a surge in high school enrollment.  If the numbers for k-6 is down I think that would be more unusual.  Emerging adults are having less children in general I wonder if that makes a difference, or if this is something seen across other regions.

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19 hours ago, MJLO said:

School enrollment as a whole is up though from what I understand.  It would be interesting to understand the bulk of the demographic coming into the area.  I would think it's largely families without high school age children, and younger post collegiate millennials with no children. I can see where that wouldn't translate to a surge in high school enrollment.  If the numbers for k-6 is down I think that would be more unusual.  Emerging adults are having less children in general I wonder if that makes a difference, or if this is something seen across other regions.

I'd be interested in knowing if there is a database out there that shows K-12 enrollment for all Michigan districts.

Demographics wise, there is definitely a growth in all of the Wyoming high schools, which coincides with a large increase in the Hispanic population in Wyoming. There was a growth of 171 students between Wyoming, Godwin Heights, Kelloggsville, and Lee. Pretty significant considering the trend of the rest of the area.

And I have no doubt that all of those factors are involved here to result in continued decrease in high school enrollment numbers. I was just surprised to see the trend continue despite all of the growth the region has had. It is pretty rare though to see people move to a new area while their child is in high school. It can have quite the social affect on them. 

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On 4/18/2017 at 2:47 PM, GRLaker said:

Something that I (and maybe I'm the only one) found interesting is that the area's large growth in population doesn't seem to have impacted high school enrollments. In fact, high school enrollments continue to have a downward trend. The last few years, the city itself has lost over 260 high school students total between 2014 and 2016, the inner ring suburbs have lost over 30 students total (all but one school with growth were in largely Hispanic areas), and the outer ring suburbs have lost over 50 students total (with Hudsonville being the biggest exception to the trend in the whole region).

I'm sure there are multiple factors that go into this - like aging population, millennials moving in and not having kids old enough yet, decrease in child births after 2000, etc. Either way...I just found it interesting that our region is growing quite a bit, but our school enrollments continue to fall. I wish there was a way to look at K-8 enrollments as well, but the MHSAA doesn't track that. Also, going farther back than 2014 didn't really help the cause either. The downward trend in the area has been pretty steady.

 

City        
School 2016 2015 2014  
Union 1,810 1,798 1,837 -27
Ottawa Hills 1,020 1,270 1,280 -260
GR Christian 896 912 905 -9
Catholic Central 646 644 658 -12
West Catholic 505 475 442 63
NorthPointe Christian 327 330 345 -18
Total 7,221 7,445 7,482 -263
         
Inner Suburban Ring        
School 2016 2015 2014  
East Kentwood 2,639 2,596 2,581 58
Grandville 1,750 1,810 1,825 -75
Wyoming 1,238 1,288 1,211 27
Northview 1,118 1,145 1,183 -65
East Grand Rapids 1,010 979 975 35
Kenowa Hills 959 1,032 1,030 -71
Godwin Heights 679 645 602 39
Kelloggsville 678 650 640 38
Comstock Park 636 665 682 -46
South Christian 602 621 625 -23
Lee 558 503 491 67
Calvin Christian 340 346 360 -20
Total 14224 14296 14220 -36
         
Second Layer Suburban      
School 2016 2015 2014  
Rockford 2,485 2,563 2,561 -76
Hudsonville 1,893 1,797 1,763 130
Caledonia 1,474 1,456 1,476 -2
Jenison High School 1,457 1,481 1,418 39
Forest Hills Central 1,258 1,316 1,304 -46
Forest Hills Northern 1,108 1,100 1,124 -16
Byron Center 1,083 1,070 1,070 13
Forest Hills Eastern 794 798 828 -34
Unity Christian 606 629 665 -59
Total 14175 14226 14224 -51

Other than Wyoming and Godfrey Lee, I'll bet these numbers directly correlate to the number of single family new home permits. 

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13 hours ago, mpchicago said:

I'm curious about City High School (Creston).  Are those numbers always the same because you have to apply to get into that school, and they have a cap?  Does anyone know how that works?

City has been expanding the middle school grades which adds significant numbers overall, but they also get weeded out in high school. This question of attrition has been high in internal discussions. Meanwhile, things are improving as the school gets more set in the IB curriculum and what that demands. The building is to be substantially remodeled this summer and that will likely affect the numbers the school can accommodate. For now, it is pretty close to physical capacity.

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  • 2 weeks later...

March numbers are out, Grand Rapids MSA has settled into a comfortable red-hot 2.6% growth rate over March 2016 (Raleigh is 3.0, Nashville 3.9, MPLS 2.1, Indianapolis 1.7, Boulder CO 2.3, Portland 2.0, etc.). Goes without saying that Grand Rapids leads the State in job growth, by a long shot. Ann Arbor gave a noble shot and reached 2.1% in March. 

 

59090b6d8395f_grjobgrowth.thumb.png.9263005ca33e60148a2bae4d6f15d001.png

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Home sales drop, average sales price rises.

The housing market in Grand Rapids is so tight we're up there with Portland and San Francisco as far as *decline* in the number of homes sold year-over-year according to housing economist Tom Lawler.  You can't sell if there's nothing to sell.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/05/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html

One look at April's MLS report confirms it with nearly a 20% drop in sales from April 2016.  Days on market down to 30.  Ninja the stats all you want.

http://www.grar.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Kent-4-2017.pdf

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17 hours ago, arcturus said:

Home sales drop, average sales price rises.

The housing market in Grand Rapids is so tight we're up there with Portland and San Francisco as far as *decline* in the number of homes sold year-over-year according to housing economist Tom Lawler.  You can't sell if there's nothing to sell.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/05/lawler-early-read-on-existing-home.html

One look at April's MLS report confirms it with nearly a 20% drop in sales from April 2016.  Days on market down to 30.  Ninja the stats all you want.

http://www.grar.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Kent-4-2017.pdf

As someone hunting as we speak, it is incredibly depressing. You can't help but have this sense of impending doom when looking at homes, knowing that we're reaching the point where the growth isn't sustainable and will result in a decline in the near future. Yet, renting is no longer an option. It's a bad time to be a buyer.

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18 hours ago, GRLaker said:

As someone hunting as we speak, it is incredibly depressing. You can't help but have this sense of impending doom when looking at homes, knowing that we're reaching the point where the growth isn't sustainable and will result in a decline in the near future. Yet, renting is no longer an option. It's a bad time to be a buyer.

Renting is always an option.  It's what you do instead of buying into a bubble.

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19 hours ago, GRLaker said:

As someone hunting as we speak, it is incredibly depressing. You can't help but have this sense of impending doom when looking at homes, knowing that we're reaching the point where the growth isn't sustainable and will result in a decline in the near future. Yet, renting is no longer an option. It's a bad time to be a buyer.

We're due for a slow-down. Prices can only go up so far before the air needs to be let out a bit. We've had 9 straight years of expansion. 

New home construction however is still only about 60% of what it was at the previous peak. I don't foresee a bubble bursting, maybe just a balloon with the air being let out slowly next year before things pick back up again. Job growth is still strong nationally. 

The apartment market nationally may see some severe correction next year though. Just a hunch. 

Watch U.S. auto sales nationally, that's the "canary in the coalmine" for an economic slowdown. Not one quarter, but how they go through the summer and into the Fall. 

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7 hours ago, temporary.name said:

This isn't a bubble. Bubbles are artificial and there's nothing artificial about the lack of available homes for sale. 

 

I don't see the market correcting until the Boomers start dying off in droves. They own the lion's share of homes (and property that homes are on) in the most desirable places. 

Or some bigger name players in residential housing figure out there's a market here and start adding real inventory.  That said I drive through Allendale M-F and it definitely seems to be seeing the largest amount of new homes being built that I can tell.  There also appears to be commercial development starting to creep in between US 31 and 96th st.   Allendale is more connected to Grand Rapids than it is to the Ottawa Co. urbanized areas.  I take development spilling that way as a signal that the rural center of the W.MI urban triangle is starting to fill in.

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