GRDadof3

West Michigan/Grand Rapids Economy

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WOODTV latched onto the part of the CBRE Office report stating that lack of parking is driving demand to the suburbs. But they inadvertently reported that Grand Rapids has one of the lowest OFFICE vacancy rates in the country, when it has one of the lowest INDUSTRIAL vacancy rates in the country, like I reported above. Quite a big difference...

http://woodtv.com/2017/08/15/report-downtown-gr-parking-issues-leading-to-office-vacancies/

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July employment growth stats are out. Much of the country slowed down earlier this summer but has picked up again in June/July. GR came in at 2.7% annual growth rate from July 2016 (14,500 more payroll jobs than this time last year). 

Other MSA's (these are not UNEMPLOYMENT Rates, but the more important year over year employment growth rates). 

Salt Lake City 2.3

GR 2.7

Mpls 2.7

Portland, OR 2.7

Columbus OH 2.2

Milwaukee 0.5

Buffalo, NY 0.0

Las Vegas 2.8

Phoenix 2.2

Austin 2.4

San Antonio 1.9

Houston 1.8

Pittsburgh 1.0

Richmond VA 2.6

Charlotte NC 2.5

Raleigh 3.2

Boise 4.2

Kansas City 2.0

St Louis 1.2

Jacksonville FL 2.7

Orlando 3.2

Nashville 2.9

Atlanta 3.2

Indianapolis 1.9

Denver 2.0

Oklahoma City 1.7

https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm

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7 hours ago, The ATX said:

That shows a pretty healthy growth rate in all areas of the country.

I don't know how scientific my sampling is :) but for the U.S. 209,000 jobs were added in July. I just grabbed MSA's that are pretty well known but not the largest. 

The Midwest as a whole only added .1% employment from July 2016, so Grand Rapids and other parts of Michigan are actually doing better than the Midwest as a whole. Detroit MSA actually is averaging a 2% growth rate over the last year. 

Surprisingly Texas, which was on fire in the early 2010's, has slowed its growth lately. Still growing, just not on fire. 

Ft Collins,Colorado, home of New Belgium Brewery, is one of the fastest growing metros in the country right now, close to 7% over this time last year.

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Toyota Mazda Joint Venture Plant

Does Michigan have a shot, yes, but unions would be the biggest issue.   What about Grand Rapids , which is not as unionized?    I recall that the Grand Rapids area was considered for Saturn before GM picked Spring Hill, TN.   It would be interesting to know if the Right Place is going after this and other projects like the Amazon HQ.

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4 hours ago, mpchicago said:

Toyota Mazda Joint Venture Plant

Does Michigan have a shot, yes, but unions would be the biggest issue.   What about Grand Rapids , which is not as unionized?    I recall that the Grand Rapids area was considered for Saturn before GM picked Spring Hill, TN.   It would be interesting to know if the Right Place is going after this and other projects like the Amazon HQ.

Michigan also now a right to work state, which is new since GM was doing site selection for the Saturn plant.

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Numbers are in for August, more of the same, 2.5% annual year-over-year growth. FYI Denver has only been growing at 1.8% annually for the last couple of years. :)

This graph is almost a statistician's wet dream. If we actually make it to early 2019 with this growth rate, it will be probably one of the longest largest uninterrupted economic expansions in GR's history. At least since the government has been tracking this kind of thing. 

 

59bdbb069ba7e_GRJobs.JPG.55d19b6d4c2cf48ecc4c72d5d6eabc09.JPG

 

59bdbbbb738d5_GRJobs2.thumb.JPG.bd4ac0121afa80850de5f770beae50ad.JPG

 

 

Other notable metro areas:

Columbus OH - 2.1%

Charlotte NC - 2.6%

Raleigh NC - 3.6%

Indianapolis 1.8%

Mpls 2.3%

Atlanta 3.2%

Pittsburgh .9%

Des Moines 3.1%

Kansas City, MO 1.6%

Nashville 3.0%

Washington DC/Northern Virginia 2.0%

Chicago .5%

Salt Lake City 2.0%

Boise 4.1%

Portland OR 2.3%

Sacramento 1.7%

Austin 2.1%

Houston 1.8%

Boston 2.3%

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

I think this was in the news a few months ago. Forbes may be re-running it. 

Ahhh, yes. You are correct. They do have a tendency to circle back around with these articles.

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Fascinating look at where the jobs will and won't be.  Be sure to read the projection tables ... Michigan has a tough task ahead.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/business/economy/future-jobs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fbusiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

Go phlebotomists and bicycle repairers!

 

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6 hours ago, arcturus said:

Construction, leisure & hospitality leading the way.  Makes sense with all the hotel/motel/apartment construction. 

Manufacturing, Financial Services and Education and Health Services aren't bad either.  #diversity

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3 hours ago, discgrab21 said:

https://mibiz.com/item/25235-lack-of-available-workers-begins-to-hit-manufacturing-output?platform=hootsuite

 

Knew this was coming.  Gotta boost wages and build housing to try and keep up with demand.

Yes! Like the townhouses they're trying to build where Mangiamo is. Build it! 

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On 6/26/2017 at 10:02 AM, GVSUChris said:

I really wasn't sure where to put this. I know we've been having this conversation in other threads (Wealthy Street, etc.) but I found it very interesting. 

 

https://mibiz.com/news/real-estate/item/24898-gr-nonprofit-housing-group-in-talks-to-acquire-177-property-portfolio

 

On 6/26/2017 at 2:28 PM, organsnyder said:

This is amazing news (dare I say "game-changing"?)! Congratulations on this effort—really looking forward to where this leads.

http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2017/06/177_homes_sold_to_west_michiga.html

And it's a done deal: http://www.grbj.com/articles/89440-nonprofit-closes-on-purchase-of-177-properties-for-affordable-housing

"There a few other key goals ICCF has for the properties:

  • Partnering with other local housing nonprofits to assure 50 percent of the homes are sold to low- and moderate-income households within 5-10 years, ensuring current tenants who desire to purchase their homes are able to do so
  • Investing $4.5 million to improve the properties, particularly increasing energy efficiency and environmental stability, with at least 75 percent of the properties meeting the Green Home Institute’s standards for Green Star Certification
  • Hiring local contractors who are committed to employing low-income residents from the homes’ neighborhoods"
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For some strange reason there was a "lull," a "blip" in the red hot local employment picture in the early parts of the 4th quarter, but it shot up again in the December numbers. In fact, almost 16,000 payroll jobs over the last period last year.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26243400000000001?amp%3bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true

 

5a7266a05220c_wmjobs.thumb.JPG.c244a7285df899fb3202ca2d5b994412.JPG

 

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2017 population growth estimates are out and I can't believe @MJLO hasn't posted this yet. :)

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/05/detroits_population_still_fall.html?appSession=6Y6127QV8989476H9W44BXVETC1V04RCZ258WG661RE1I9Z2G2HBDCMH9J8N81G8G46L4A2AI7CN3N80BQFFLHQC4YNQEK05E1N988499Q222379Z4MY3V3C0A88Q0XM

City of GR sits at 198,829 (estimated) which I believe is the highest historically. 

Kent County keeps growing healthily at 648,594. 

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1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

2017 population growth estimates are out and I can't believe @MJLO hasn't posted this yet. :)

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/05/detroits_population_still_fall.html?appSession=6Y6127QV8989476H9W44BXVETC1V04RCZ258WG661RE1I9Z2G2HBDCMH9J8N81G8G46L4A2AI7CN3N80BQFFLHQC4YNQEK05E1N988499Q222379Z4MY3V3C0A88Q0XM

City of GR sits at 198,829 (estimated) which I believe is the highest historically. 

Kent County keeps growing healthily at 648,594. 

Hah!  Yes all of this adulting I've had to deal with over the last few weeks has been prohibitive on my nerd hobbies.   Below is a quick snap shot of what I call the "GR 7".  The 6 municipalities that immediately border Grand Rapids.  Together if they were to consolidate with GR they create a 141 sq mi box with almost 400k residents.

40527971430_bea8d3f7c4.jpg

This years estimates signal that Grand Rapids has indeed grown past its previous peak population.  It also means that the city will likely surpass that 200k mark that has eluded it for decades by next years estimates.  The growth numbers for the city surged this year compared to previous years a solid 1.3% growth rate for the year.  The other cities around the core showed a bit of softening growth.  If I were a betting man I'd say that is most likely due to the housing crunch in the area that's pushing newer/prospective residents and home buyers further out into exurban areas.  Allendale Twp added more than 1000 residents according to the release which puts it at 4% year over year growth(not something to balk at).  Also to note they have estimated that the city of Wyoming has now surpassed the city of Kalamazoo in population making it the 2nd largest city on this half of the state.   

As the weekend progresses I will have more time to post my full nerd breakdown.  But for now :) ......

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GR jumped 3 cities since 2016, Little Rock, Akron, and Augusta. I was thinking our growth might have slowed a bit, but it actually picked up a bit.

It seems like some of the bigger cities had a significant slow down in growth. NYC added 33,000 between 2015-16 while only 7200 between 2016-17, LA dropped from 27,000 to 18,000, and Chicago continues to lose people. Houston, Phoenix, and San Diego all had minor slow downs in growth, Dallas and San Antonio stayed about the same, and Philly sped up a bit.

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29 minutes ago, Pattmost20 said:

GR jumped 3 cities since 2016, Little Rock, Akron, and Augusta. I was thinking our growth might have slowed a bit, but it actually picked up a bit.

It seems like some of the bigger cities had a significant slow down in growth. NYC added 33,000 between 2015-16 while only 7200 between 2016-17, LA dropped from 27,000 to 18,000, and Chicago continues to lose people. Houston, Phoenix, and San Diego all had minor slow downs in growth, Dallas and San Antonio stayed about the same, and Philly sped up a bit.

This goes along with articles floating around that indicate that millennials are moving to mid-size cities over their larger city counterparts.

 

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10 hours ago, MJLO said:

Hah!  Yes all of this adulting I've had to deal with over the last few weeks has been prohibitive on my nerd hobbies.   Below is a quick snap shot of what I call the "GR 7".  The 6 municipalities that immediately border Grand Rapids.  Together if they were to consolidate with GR they create a 141 sq mi box with almost 400k residents.

40527971430_bea8d3f7c4.jpg

This years estimates signal that Grand Rapids has indeed grown past its previous peak population.  It also means that the city will likely surpass that 200k mark that has eluded it for decades by next years estimates.  The growth numbers for the city surged this year compared to previous years a solid 1.3% growth rate for the year.  The other cities around the core showed a bit of softening growth.  If I were a betting man I'd say that is most likely due to the housing crunch in the area that's pushing newer/prospective residents and home buyers further out into exurban areas.  Allendale Twp added more than 1000 residents according to the release which puts it at 4% year over year growth(not something to balk at).  Also to note they have estimated that the city of Wyoming has now surpassed the city of Kalamazoo in population making it the 2nd largest city on this half of the state.   

As the weekend progresses I will have more time to post my full nerd breakdown.  But for now :) ......

I could see Walker, Kentwood, and Wyoming going along with such a move. Grandville, GR Twp, and EGR never would. 351,336 would be a nice sized city though.

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1 hour ago, GRLaker said:

This goes along with articles floating around that indicate that millennials are moving to mid-size cities over their larger city counterparts.

 

Exactly, it's all related to skyrocketing housing costs in the big cities, especially the trendy ones. I read an article about people living 90 minutes to 2 hours away from areas like Seattle and Silicon Valley because that's how far you have to go to find affordable housing for many people. "Drive til you qualify."  I can't imagine being in my car for 3 - 4 hours a day just to get to and from my workplace. 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattles-mega-commuters-we-are-spending-more-time-than-ever-traveling-to-work/

But why do that when you can move to a very decent mid-sized metro area with convenient amenities (ie Grand Rapids).  

https://www.curbed.com/2018/5/1/17306978/career-millennial-home-buying-second-city

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