West Michigan/Grand Rapids Economy

[GRDadof3]

I kind of thought the jobs market might cool off a tad, but that doesn't appear to be happening (and anecdotally I read a lot more about companies hiring and expanding than layoffs). 

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26243400000000001?data_tool=XGtable

20,000 more jobs than this time last year, or a 3.8% bump year-over-year, to 543,000 non-farm workers empoyed.  My guess is that will push the umemployment rate locally into the 2's percentage wise. 

Other peer MSA's:

Raleigh, NC: 1.5% annual growth rate, now within 30,000 workers of GR MSA at 577,000 workers

Rochester, NY: 1.1%, 540,000

Omaha: 1.8%, 498,000

Salt Lake City: 3.2%, 686,000 (on a very similar track as GR)

Richmond, VA: 1.0%, 641,000

Providence: 1.5%, 584,000

Des Moines - West Des Moines: 2.9%, 358,000 (not sure it's really a peer anymore)

Jacksonville, FL, 2.0%, 641,000

Hartford, CT, 1.6%, 581,000

Birmingam, AL 0.9%, 521,000

 

 

[ModSquad]

2 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

I kind of thought the jobs market might cool off a tad, but that doesn't appear to be happening (and anecdotally I read a lot more about companies hiring and expanding than layoffs). 

 

 

 

I was in 28th and Kzoo Meijer on a Saturday not too long ago at about 11 AM.  There was only 3 cashiers working.  The lines were massive.  All of the self checkout lanes were also packed.  I thought maybe they were trying to push more people to the self check out lanes.  Upon further investigation I found out that they literally cannot hire cashiers.  They have an immediate need for 15-20 more cashiers.  When they do get them and train them, too many times the lose them within months of hiring.  I am hearing stories like this all over our area.  It's pretty crazy.

 

[GRDadof3]

4 minutes ago, lighthousedave said:

I was in 28th and Kzoo Meijer on a Saturday not too long ago at about 11 AM.  There was only 3 cashiers working.  The lines were massive.  All of the self checkout lanes were also packed.  I thought maybe they were trying to push more people to the self check out lanes.  Upon further investigation I found out that they literally cannot hire cashiers.  They have an immediate need for 15-20 more cashiers.  When they do get them and train them, too many times the lose them within months of hiring.  I am hearing stories like this all over our area.  It's pretty crazy.

 

 

I heard a story recently, maybe it was last night even, that the new Hampton Inn at MidTowne Village sat for 3 months waiting for trim carpenters to do the interior work, because there aren't enough of them. 3 months?! 

[Matchetes]

2 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

I kind of thought the jobs market might cool off a tad, but that doesn't appear to be happening (and anecdotally I read a lot more about companies hiring and expanding than layoffs). 

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26243400000000001?data_tool=XGtable

20,000 more jobs than this time last year, or a 3.8% bump year-over-year, to 543,000 non-farm workers empoyed.  My guess is that will push the umemployment rate locally into the 2's percentage wise. 

Other peer MSA's:

Raleigh, NC: 1.5% annual growth rate, now within 30,000 workers of GR MSA at 577,000 workers

Rochester, NY: 1.1%, 540,000

Omaha: 1.8%, 498,000

Salt Lake City: 3.2%, 686,000 (on a very similar track as GR)

Richmond, VA: 1.0%, 641,000

Providence: 1.5%, 584,000

Des Moines - West Des Moines: 2.9%, 358,000 (not sure it's really a peer anymore)

Jacksonville, FL, 2.0%, 641,000

Hartford, CT, 1.6%, 581,000

Birmingam, AL 0.9%, 521,000

 

 

What's interesting is that if you dig a little deeper into the numbers, the GR metro area initially peaked in Nov, 2000. It took a slump and then a decades long job stagnation, followed by the great recession. It wasn't until October 2014 that GR hit a new peak. The exciting things is that it looks like we're growing at a 90's like clip again!

 

[ModSquad]

19 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

 

I heard a story recently, maybe it was last night even, that the new Hampton Inn at MidTowne Village sat for 3 months waiting for trim carpenters to do the interior work, because there aren't enough of them. 3 months?! 

That was actually from me.  True story.  My wife and I know the guy that finally got the contract.

[GRDadof3]

5 hours ago, lighthousedave said:

That was actually from me.  True story.  My wife and I know the guy that finally got the contract.

I knew it was from you, I was just trying to be funny. 

[arcturus]

WSJ had a long article on this today.  The culprit is demographics.  For the first time since 1950, the global working-age population will drop.  Companies are running out of workers, customers, or both.  It explains why there's been a historically weak recovery while the unemployment rate has dropped by half.  

Workers are retiring at a rate greater than any decline in demand, creating a labor shortage.  Any areas IN demand?  Good luck.  Think about that a minute.

 

[arcturus]

54 minutes ago, temporary.name said:

This one?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-demographics-rule-the-global-economy-1448203724

It ties in with it.

Essentially companies who let go 2 employees because of lack of work are now facing a shortage of qualified help because 3 are retiring. 

[Allison Slater]

On 11/20/2015, 1:38:58, lighthousedave said:

I was in 28th and Kzoo Meijer on a Saturday not too long ago at about 11 AM.  There was only 3 cashiers working.  The lines were massive.  All of the self checkout lanes were also packed.  I thought maybe they were trying to push more people to the self check out lanes.  Upon further investigation I found out that they literally cannot hire cashiers.  They have an immediate need for 15-20 more cashiers.  When they do get them and train them, too many times the lose them within months of hiring.  I am hearing stories like this all over our area.  It's pretty crazy.

 

I know someone who's been a long-time employee at Meijer who recently quit.  Apparently the inability to find new workers has resulted in severe understaffing, creating much higher stress for those still there, causing them to leave as well and new workers not to stick around.  The few employees left are no longer specializing in their departments, but running around doing everything and working long hours to do so.  Meijer (and likely others) are going to have to seriously think about increasing wages to keep their stores properly staffed.

The AAA call center in town just increased the starting wage there by a generous margin.

[GR8scott]

On 11/20/2015, 9:32:32, GRDadof3 said:

I kind of thought the jobs market might cool off a tad, but that doesn't appear to be happening (and anecdotally I read a lot more about companies hiring and expanding than layoffs). 

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMU26243400000000001?data_tool=XGtable

20,000 more jobs than this time last year, or a 3.8% bump year-over-year, to 543,000 non-farm workers empoyed.  My guess is that will push the umemployment rate locally into the 2's percentage wise. 

Other peer MSA's:

Raleigh, NC: 1.5% annual growth rate, now within 30,000 workers of GR MSA at 577,000 workers

Rochester, NY: 1.1%, 540,000

Omaha: 1.8%, 498,000

Salt Lake City: 3.2%, 686,000 (on a very similar track as GR)

Richmond, VA: 1.0%, 641,000

Providence: 1.5%, 584,000

Des Moines - West Des Moines: 2.9%, 358,000 (not sure it's really a peer anymore)

Jacksonville, FL, 2.0%, 641,000

Hartford, CT, 1.6%, 581,000

Birmingam, AL 0.9%, 521,000

 

 

Love these peer city comparisons. Kind of a rant here but had a couple thoughts and this seems like a good problem to have and possibly a catalyst for big things in the near future? Ive been to all of those cities except for Richmond and Hartford and every one including Des Moines SEEMs larger than GR, maybe its because they all have taller buildings with more of a corporate presence in their respected cities? Something that could help here could be more affordable rental units. Theres a lot of new stuff going up but nothing in the city that seems geared towards lower income. Why are there few  higher density apartment towers outside of downtown? The public housing commission rebuilt a couple of the projects with medium density townhomes but no high density taller buildings. Heres a hypathetical, with the high growth of the hispanic popuation there could demand for a say 12 story apartment tower on the SW side of town that could house hundreds more at affordable rates and probably help fill lower end labor and construction shortages?  

[jas49503]

9 hours ago, GR8scott said:

 Something that could help here could be more affordable rental units. Theres a lot of new stuff going up but nothing in the city that seems geared towards lower income.  

Are you kidding?  there are tons of low income housing units being built downtown and in hearthside.  

 

Having moved here from Rochester in 2009, unless there's been a major change there, GR definitely does not seem smaller and definitely has more activity downtown.   once again though I would include hearthside with downtown when assessing size.  if you consider downtown from fulton to michigan st. then of course it's smaller.

[x99]

12 hours ago, GR8scott said:

Love these peer city comparisons. Kind of a rant here but had a couple thoughts and this seems like a good problem to have and possibly a catalyst for big things in the near future? Ive been to all of those cities except for Richmond and Hartford and every one including Des Moines SEEMs larger than GR, maybe its because they all have taller buildings with more of a corporate presence in their respected cities? 

I don't think your "solution" to making GR feel bigger makes any sense, but I would agree with the first part:  Many of the other cities do feel larger.  In many instances, that is because they actually are larger when you look at population numbers instead of MSA job numbers.  Also bear in mind that some, like Hartford, Raleigh, Richmond, Providence, and SLC are also state capitols.   Those corporate HQs don't hurt, either.  Many also still have functional retail districts, not to mention taller buildings and a less chopped up streetscape.  Most of what once made Grand Rapids feel like a legitimate city was flattened, and was never rebuilt out of a preference for the current office park concept.  However, if we can manage to grow, we do have one possible advantage:  We are very space constricted, which means that growth requires lots of infill and going vertical in select locations.  Now, that assumes downtown grows, instead of office parks out on the Beltline.  But it also means you need high rents and the multi-faceted urban environment capable of supporting them.  We are not even close to that point yet.  

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, x99 said:

I don't think your "solution" to making GR feel bigger makes any sense, but I would agree with the first part:  Many of the other cities do feel larger.  In many instances, that is because they actually are larger when you look at population numbers instead of MSA job numbers.  Also bear in mind that some, like Hartford, Raleigh, Richmond, Providence, and SLC are also state capitols.   Those corporate HQs don't hurt, either.  Many also still have functional retail districts, not to mention taller buildings and a less chopped up streetscape.  Most of what once made Grand Rapids feel like a legitimate city was flattened, and was never rebuilt out of a preference for the current office park concept.  However, if we can manage to grow, we do have one possible advantage:  We are very space constricted, which means that growth requires lots of infill and going vertical in select locations.  Now, that assumes downtown grows, instead of office parks out on the Beltline.  But it also means you need high rents and the multi-faceted urban environment capable of supporting them.  We are not even close to that point yet.  

Whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on a minute. All MSA populations are calculated using the same formulas now, by the feds, using commuting statistics. Job numbers are around half an MSA's population (because the rest of the population is under 18 or retired). Obviously this is also affected by how large of a college population an MSA has. 

Here are the MSA population numbers for the aforementioned cities:

) Raleigh: 1.242 Million (does not include Durham anymore)

) Rochester, NY: 1.083 Million

) Omaha: .904 Million

) Salt Lake City: 1.153 Million

) Richmond: 1.260 Million

) Providence: 1.609 Million

) Des Moines: .611 Million

) Jacksonville: 1.419 Million

) Hartford: 1.214 Million

) Birmingham: 1.143 Million

) Grand Rapids - Wyoming: 1.027 Million

How large a metro area feels can also be affected by tree cover. Out West you can see a lot farther, so a city will look bigger because you can see development and housing for miles in all directions. Mountain areas it's even more pronounced, because you can see neighborhoods packed in for miles on land that used to be wide open prairies. Here in GR you can't because we have pretty tall trees, and it's way more difficult to do massive scaled neighborhoods. 

Or I've heard some people say a city feels bigger because of how may 3, 4 or 5 lane highways it has (kind of silly) or whether it allows high rises in suburban areas. The large highways are accentuated if a city like Des Moines that has a major East West highway (I-80) running through it, which requires it to be built wider. A lot of municipalities in the West Michigan area have an "anti-Detroit" mentality and have zoning regulations that are trying to prohibit the mega suburban feel that spread throughout Oakland County back in the 70's and 80's. Right wrong or indifferent, it's the reality of why GR may feel smaller. For instance, I don't think you can build anything taller than 5 stories in Grand Rapids Township, one of the closest townships to downtown GR. 

Reminds me of a time when I was flying back to Grand Rapids one time, and coming into the GRR airport flying West to East on a bright sunny day. A whole pack of young boys was on the flight, apparently some athletic team flying in for something. As we flew over the Ottawa County countryside, just after coming off of Lake Michigan, they were commenting and laughing about all the farms. Then as we got over the Southern end of the Grand Rapids area, and they grew silent. Flying over the Byron Center area looking toward downtown the city looks huge, and seems to go on as far as the eye can see (which it does). 

Was an interesting psychological observation..

 

[x99]

2 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

How large a metro area feels can also be affected by tree cover. Out West you can see a lot farther, so a city will look bigger because you can see development and housing for miles in all directions. Mountain areas it's even more pronounced, because you can see neighborhoods packed in for miles on land that used to be wide open prairies. Here in GR you can't because we have pretty tall trees, and it's way more difficult to do massive scaled neighborhoods. 

What I was agreeing with and referring to specifically was the feeling of the size of the downtown, or the primary city at the core of the MSA.  Viewed in strictly those terms, GR feels small and short.  In part, because it is.  I pulled the list of tallest buildings in each of the above MSAs, and we are the shortest city by a fairly substantial margin when it comes to maximum height, and also more generally the number of fairly tall buildings at or about 300 feet.   For example, SLC and Richmond both have more than 10 over or around  300 feet.  We have 3.  Raleigh has 3, but all are over 400 feet and one at over 500.  Omaha has 5 or 6, but one at almost 500 and another over 600. Hartford has 7, with 3 over 500.  

[GRDadof3]

31 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

8 minutes ago, x99 said:

What I was agreeing with and referring to specifically was the feeling of the size of the downtown, or the primary city at the core of the MSA.  Viewed in strictly those terms, GR feels small and short.  In part, because it is.  I pulled the list of tallest buildings in each of the above MSAs, and we are the shortest city by a fairly substantial margin when it comes to maximum height, and also more generally the number of fairly tall buildings at or about 300 feet.   For example, SLC and Richmond both have more than 10 over or around  300 feet.  We have 3.  Raleigh has 3, but all are over 400 feet and one at over 500.  Omaha has 5 or 6, but one at almost 500 and another over 600. Hartford has 7, with 3 over 500.  

 

Ah, in that case you are correct. We just don't have a lot of commercial tower HQs here. The towers in other cities are all mainly energy companies and finance/insurance companies. 

[arcturus]

Grand Rapids, city of good beer and squat buildings.

[GRDadof3]

Homebuying millennials, strong economy, make Grand Rapids the nation's hottest housing market

http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2015/12/homebuying_millennials_strong.html

[organsnyder]

I noticed one of their trucks downtown (Weston & Oakes) a couple of months ago, and figured they must be working on it. Glad to see it happening!

There has also been a ton of fiber being buried in SE GR. I hope it's them and not AT&T expanding UVerse or something.

[GRDadof3]

GR - Wyoming MSA measured a 3.1% unemployment rate, with an increased labor force in October. This marks the sixth straight year of year-over-year labor force and employment growth (labor force is 64,000 higher than October 2009)

http://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm#eag

[egrguy]

http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2015/12/west_michigans_economic_comeba.html#incart_river_home

Comparisons to Portland, OR. That's a good target for GR to emulate.

[arcturus]

On 12/7/2015, 7:15:20, GRDadof3 said:

GR - Wyoming MSA measured a 3.1% unemployment rate, with an increased labor force in October. This marks the sixth straight year of year-over-year labor force and employment growth (labor force is 64,000 higher than October 2009)

http://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/mi_grandrapids_msa.htm#eag

 

Putting this into further perspective:

October, 2009 represented pretty much the low point.  2013 was the year the labor force figures finally surpassed 2006.

[GRDadof3]

There's this very odd economics article in the Business Journal this week:

http://www.grbj.com/articles/84014-economic-problems-dont-always-have-economic-solutions

I've always felt that when discussing economics, you should usually leave out your politics and religious beliefs. It dumbs down the discussion. 

[GVSUChris]

18 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

There's this very odd economics article in the Business Journal this week:

http://www.grbj.com/articles/84014-economic-problems-dont-always-have-economic-solutions

I've always felt that when discussing economics, you should usually leave out your politics and religious beliefs. It dumbs down the discussion. 

Oh man, we are moving back to GR this summer after 6 years in Chicago, and when we read this article the other day we were like, "are we sure we want to do this?" (and that is saying a lot coming from an ordained clergy person, lol.) Odd article indeed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by GVSUChris

[GRDadof3]

32 minutes ago, GVSUChris said:

Oh man, we are moving back to GR this summer after 6 years in Chicago, and when we read this article the other day we were like, "are we sure we want to do this?" (and that is saying a lot coming from an ordained clergy person, lol.) Odd article indeed.

 

 

Ha, well some of it will get tiresome. I want to say things are getting less conservative but then some segments are getting more emboldened in their zeal. And if I see one more "Have a blessed day!" as part of someone's business email signature I'm going to lose my sh*t, lol. 

[Ted]

56 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

There's this very odd economics article in the Business Journal this week:

http://www.grbj.com/articles/84014-economic-problems-dont-always-have-economic-solutions

I've always felt that when discussing economics, you should usually leave out your politics and religious beliefs. It dumbs down the discussion. 

"On a local level, while being labeled both “cool” and “beer” city might be entertaining to some and intoxicating to others, it’s not what this city was built on. West Michigan’s foundation was one of faithfulness to family, faithfulness to God and faithfulness to work."

That is some beautiful selective history... Slow clap, professor...