West Michigan/Grand Rapids Economy

[MJLO]

48 minutes ago, GVSUChris said:

Oh man, we are moving back to GR this summer after 6 years in Chicago, and when we read this article the other day we were like, "are we sure we want to do this?" (and that is saying a lot coming from an ordained clergy person, lol.) Odd article indeed.

That was an opinion piece by a professor at cornerstone.    I guess I didn't really expect him to reinforce the importance of the knowledge based economy and the demographics it attracts.   You know the kinds of things being put in place to take the region into the coming decades and not wither as an obsolete manufacturing center like some of our counterpart regions are.  Are the male and female students at cornerstone allowed to dance with each other yet?

Am I the only person in West Michigan that doesn't get bombarded by over zealous self righteous Christians the area is supposedly over run by?   My gay ass almost never deals with these types of people and when I do, they aren't really that insufferable.  Sure they are around, but they don't feel any more visible to me as part of the community, than any other place I experience.  These people exist everywhere, they don't run the narrative of the region either, and really haven't for a long time.  Perhaps they are concentrated in pockets.  Perhaps we are seeing through the eyes of stigma and not what's really in front of us. 

[organsnyder]

The comments in the article are amusing. The professor obviously required his students to "critique" his article. Of course, they all are unwilling/unable to actually question his arguments.

[GRDadof3]

19 minutes ago, organsnyder said:

The comments in the article are amusing. The professor obviously required his students to "critique" his article. Of course, they all are unwilling/unable to actually question his arguments.

I thought the same thing. I've never ever seen comments on a BJ article before that one, and almost all of them start out the same way. 
"This writer Mr. Stamm has a very good viewpoint..." 

 

23 minutes ago, MJLO said:

That was an opinion piece by a professor at cornerstone.    I guess I didn't really expect him to reinforce the importance of the knowledge based economy and the demographics it attracts.   You know the kinds of things being put in place to take the region into the coming decades and not wither as an obsolete manufacturing center like some of our counterpart regions are.  Are the male and female students at cornerstone allowed to dance with each other yet?

Am I the only person in West Michigan that doesn't get bombarded by over zealous self righteous Christians the area is supposedly over run by?   My gay ass almost never deals with these types of people and when I do, they aren't really that insufferable.  Sure they are around, but they don't feel any more visible to me as part of the community, than any other place I experience.  These people exist everywhere, they don't run the narrative of the region either, and really haven't for a long time.  Perhaps they are concentrated in pockets.  Perhaps we are seeing through the eyes of stigma and not what's really in front of us. 

You're probably right, it's just a big part of American culture in general. But there's nothing in the article that says it's an opinion piece or a guest editorial. He's treated as an "expert" on a news piece. It just landed in my email inbox that way. 

 

[MJLO]

8 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

You're probably right, it's just a big part of American culture in general. But there's nothing in the article that says it's an opinion piece or a guest editorial. He's treated as an "expert" on a news piece. It just landed in my email inbox that way. 

 

I can't remember seeing an article like this not being noted as an opinion piece before.  Is it editorial overlook, or this type of narrative that's in line with the GRBJ agenda? 

[Ted]

Jesus God... The comments...

'The U.S. will have a hard time coming to grips with the same thing that West Michigan does, but if we have people like Dr. Stamm that will call us back to what is true and right, I think we can make it through this.'

Thank you, Mackenzie G.

[GRDadof3]

Just now, MJLO said:

I can't remember seeing an article like this not being noted as an opinion piece.  Is it editorial overlook, or this type of narrative that's in line with the GRBJ agenda? 

Don't know, either it's an editorial oversight or it's just the way their website is formatted. Maybe it falls under "guest editorials" if you click on the tab, but in this day and age of the sharing media world, it should really be clearly spelled out either in the byline at the bottom or the header at the top. It is the BJ after all and they don't usually think of the tech side of things, and how people actually end up on their articles (people don't read a website from front to back like a newspaper).

 

 

2 minutes ago, Ted said:

Jesus God... The comments...

'The U.S. will have a hard time coming to grips with the same thing that West Michigan does, but if we have people like Dr. Stamm that will call us back to what is true and right, I think we can make it through this.'

Thank you, Mackenzie G.

 

"Unless there's some moral outrage, Hillary Clinton will become President." 

I don't really know how to get my head around that statement. Are the Republican candidates more moral? I'm not really of fan of Hillary, but the last Republican President was responsible for 100,000's of deaths in the Middle East/Iraq in a war that was based on flat out lies by top officials, with no apologies. That seems pretty immoral. 

5 minutes ago, Ted said:

Jesus God... The comments...

'The U.S. will have a hard time coming to grips with the same thing that West Michigan does, but if we have people like Dr. Stamm that will call us back to what is true and right, I think we can make it through this.'

Thank you, Mackenzie G.

By the way, I had the same love and affection for my economics professors in college.... just....weird. 

[MJLO]

They have had other guest editorials before that were clearly labeled as such. 

[GRDadof3]

7 minutes ago, MJLO said:

They have had other guest editorials before that were clearly labeled as such. 

You're right, and usually when you have a guest editorial, the premise is they are an expert on a subject and are not necessarily trying to "sell" you on their company or brand. Just to be seen as as thought leader in the community.

This seems like a sales pitch to me, particularly the last paragraphs, and should be labeled as such. I wonder if Cornerstone is a sponsor/advertiser? That makes it even murkier. 

Anyway, just found it really strange for a business publication, that's usually more data than fluff. 

 

[walker]

1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

There's this very odd economics article in the Business Journal this week:

http://www.grbj.com/articles/84014-economic-problems-dont-always-have-economic-solutions

I've always felt that when discussing economics, you should usually leave out your politics and religious beliefs. It dumbs down the discussion. 

While Professor Stamm begins by quoting Nobel Prize Laureate Paul Krugman, the rest of the article didn’t sound a whole lot like Krugman, so I thought I’d Google up Krugman’s article for comparison:

Krugman NYT

[GRDadof3]

24 minutes ago, walker said:

While Professor Stamm begins by quoting Nobel Prize Laureate Paul Krugman, the rest of the article didn’t sound a whole lot like Krugman, so I thought I’d Google up Krugman’s article for comparison:

Krugman NYT

Interesting article. Thanks for sharing. I think there's probably other reasons why mortality rates particularly for men have risen in the U.S., none of which related to "morals" or "faith."  We've seen a drastic shift in the workplace for men in the last 20 years, particularly with the near death of unions. It was bound to happen, but I think this seismic shift has left a lot of men in economic malaise. 

There's also the massive shift in the bombardment of information, much of it geared toward the negative aspects of life to drive ratings and clicks. I think it's starting to take its toll on the American psyche. One relatively small tragedy happens and people are claiming it's the end of the world, despite the fact that the world is generally more peaceful than it's been in centuries, maybe ever. The murder rates in the U.S. are the lowest in recorded history. 

 

[MJLO]

52 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

You're right, and usually when you have a guest editorial, the premise is they are an expert on a subject and are not necessarily trying to "sell" you on their company or brand. Just to be seen as as thought leader in the community.

This seems like a sales pitch to me, particularly the last paragraphs, and should be labeled as such. I wonder if Cornerstone is a sponsor/advertiser? That makes it even murkier. 

Anyway, just found it really strange for a business publication, that's usually more data than fluff. 

 

GRBJ updated the story to show that it's an opinion piece. 

[Jippy]

The GRBJ has grown much more partisan over the last year, and the opinion pieces have grown increasingly bazaar.  Most weeks now include a poorly articulated editorial concerning an initiative in the urban area of GR. 

[GRDadof3]

21 minutes ago, MJLO said:

GRBJ updated the story to show that it's an opinion piece. 

I kinda figured we had some lurkers here.  Let's see what kind of misinformation I can put out to make them chase their tails..

21 minutes ago, Jippy said:

The GRBJ has grown much more partisan over the last year, and the opinion pieces have grown increasingly bazaar.  Most weeks now include a poorly articulated editorial concerning an initiative in the urban area of GR. 

MiBiz really seems to be kicking their butts lately. Although I'm disappointed to hear of them going to a paywall model, and putting more resources into their printed versions. Oh well, I get most of my news off the street anyway. 

[wingbert]

15 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

I kinda figured we had some lurkers here.  Let's see what kind of misinformation I can put out to make them chase their tails.. 

 

Well you know... if you take off the "D" and add an "S" and "N" then Switch's "Data" Center becomes a "Satan" Center.  I'm sure you can guess what will really be going on with that pyramid - and it ain't going to be grain storage.

 

[GRDadof3]

2 hours ago, wingbert said:

 

Well you know... if you take off the "D" and add an "S" and "N" then Switch's "Data" Center becomes a "Satan" Center.  I'm sure you can guess what will really be going on with that pyramid - and it ain't going to be grain storage.

 

Grain storage, LMAO. 

n/m, getting off topic. 

[RegalTDP]

7 hours ago, Ted said:

"On a local level, while being labeled both “cool” and “beer” city might be entertaining to some and intoxicating to others, it’s not what this city was built on. West Michigan’s foundation was one of faithfulness to family, faithfulness to God and faithfulness to work."

That is some beautiful selective history... Slow clap, professor...

Hahaha, I thought I was reading the Grand Rapids Press Op-Ed page from the '90s.  The comments section could have been straight from the Public Pulse.

[GRDadof3]

Unemployment down to 2.9%, a 15 year low. You have to go back to the Clinton years before 9/11 and the Iraq War to find employment and growth at these levels.

http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2015/12/west_michigan_jobless_rate_clo.html

544,500 persons were employed in the four-county region that includes Kent, Ottawa, Barry and Montcalm counties – a new record that's 0.9 percent higher than October. Total employment has grown 3.7 percent in the past 12 months, Wein said.

 

[egrguy]

Its a great positive trend. I know from the recent census date up to 2014, I think Kent county added about 30,000 residents (about 4.4% growth from 2010-2014). I wonder with new positive developments like Switch, needed trade jobs, continual growth of downtown etc, does Kent County's population stay at a relative modest growth rate or with the continual positive financial news does it ever accelerate?

[GRDadof3]

2 hours ago, jdkacz said:

Its a great positive trend. I know from the recent census date up to 2014, I think Kent county added about 30,000 residents (about 4.4% growth from 2010-2014). I wonder with new positive developments like Switch, needed trade jobs, continual growth of downtown etc, does Kent County's population stay at a relative modest growth rate or with the continual positive financial news does it ever accelerate?

I think it could jump back up into the 2% + population growth rate of the early 90's. The net domestic migration has switched over to the positive side for the first time since 1999 for the MSA, and the first time since 1992 for Kent County (when the census first started tracking domestic migration). I think the area is even more desirable for people to move to than back in the 90's or 00's. 

GR MSA: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/population/#!/msa/Grand_Rapids-Wyoming%2C_MI

Counties in the U.S.: https://assets.recenter.tamu.edu/WebData/pop/popc/dataPop_full.zip

If that were to happen and continue, the area could surpass 1.1 Million, and Kent County could surpass 700,000, by 2020 (I would say both are very distinct possibilities).

 

[arcturus]

You've got a new factor to consider with population estimates ... demographics.  It will cap the numbers to some degree.

10,000 people turn 65 every day nationwide and a large number are retiring younger.

For people living elsewhere Michigan isn't exactly a top retirement destination, nor is it as 'sticky' as other places in retaining them.   Then you have the situation where retirees stick around, part time, but have residency elsewhere.  Their part time residency doesn't count in the MI census.

Kent County might be somewhat less impacted but we're seeing the effects in rural counties already.

As for those wonderfully low unemployment rates, we discussed the demographic aspect earlier contributing to it.

Edited December 29, 2015 by arcturus

[GRDadof3]

2 hours ago, arcturus said:

You've got a new factor to consider with population estimates ... demographics.  It will cap the numbers to some degree.

10,000 people turn 65 every day nationwide and a large number are retiring younger.

For people living elsewhere Michigan isn't exactly a top retirement destination, nor is it as 'sticky' as other places in retaining them.   Then you have the situation where retirees stick around, part time, but have residency elsewhere.  Their part time residency doesn't count in the MI census.

Kent County might be somewhat less impacted but we're seeing the effects in rural counties already.

As for those wonderfully low unemployment rates, we discussed the demographic aspect earlier contributing to it.

I thought about that after I posted those tables. If you look at the MSA one, the number of births each year is lower than the last decade, and the number of deceased each year is increasing. Millennials are waiting longer to have kids, and baby boomers are passing on. 

So 2% + might be a bit optimistic. But looking at the explosive growth in both Professional and Business Services and Education and Health Services in the job growth data, even through the recession, the prospects for continued growth are pretty good. 

[MJLO]

3 hours ago, arcturus said:

You've got a new factor to consider with population estimates ... demographics.  It will cap the numbers to some degree.

10,000 people turn 65 every day nationwide and a large number are retiring younger.

For people living elsewhere Michigan isn't exactly a top retirement destination, nor is it as 'sticky' as other places in retaining them.   Then you have the situation where retirees stick around, part time, but have residency elsewhere.  Their part time residency doesn't count in the MI census.

Kent County might be somewhat less impacted but we're seeing the effects in rural counties already.

As for those wonderfully low unemployment rates, we discussed the demographic aspect earlier contributing to it.

Rural counties in every state are experiencing population declines, not just Michigan.  In fact the decline rate in Michigan's rural counties is on par with the National average.  When you divide the state up by region Michigan's population problem remains in the I-75 corridor and the eastern part of the northern LP.  The southern I-75 corridor (metro Detroit) is anemically growing, the Northern part (Flint and the Tri Cities) is hemmoraging.  Western Michigan/Kent County are growing above the national average and have some of the strongest numbers in the midwest.  I'm not really sure you can apply the MIchigan formula to W. MI  when the region as a whole has posted more than double the raw numbers gains of the entire state. 

[arcturus]

Note my comment  - 'Kent County might be somewhat less impacted but we're seeing the effects in rural counties already.'  A lot of W Michigan is rural and the population growth would of been even larger with less emigration.  The recent growth numbers have been strong but they're fighting an ever stronger demographic headwind.  Growth needs to be sustained and a good litmus is going to come when the auto industry comes off its present peak. Hopefully we've turned the corner as far as our reliance, both statewide and locally.

 

Edited December 30, 2015 by arcturus

[arcturus]

WalletHub ranks Grand Rapids #58 of 150 (#4 for time spent working & commuting) and stacks up well for the region (poor Detroit).  Madison must be booming.

https://wallethub.com/edu/best-cities-for-jobs/2173/#methodology

 

 

[GRDadof3]

11 hours ago, arcturus said:

WalletHub ranks Grand Rapids #58 of 150 (#4 for time spent working & commuting) and stacks up well for the region (poor Detroit).  Madison must be booming.

https://wallethub.com/edu/best-cities-for-jobs/2173/#methodology

 

 

I don't know about all these rankings reports. I would say for certain jobs, particularly engineering and tech, Detroit may be a much better market to find a job than Grand Rapids.