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arcturus

Zillow - Grand Rapids has the lowest rental vacancy rate in the country

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I'm telling you, Grand Rapids is a growin.  Just need the census to release the friggen metro estimates already. 

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I'm telling you, Grand Rapids is a growin.  Just need the census to release the friggen metro estimates already. 

 

Employment wise, initial stats came out today from BLS and GR - Wyoming is up about 14,000 workers over this time last year, continuing the high growth trend of the last year. From the low in 2010 employment it is up a staggering (seriously, staggering) 79,000 workers. That's a 20% spike. Only 40,000 of those were pulled from the unemployment rolls, the rest are new jobs created. So about 39,000 new people in the local workforce who weren't there back in 2010.

 

Just sayin.

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Interesting article on the sale of the Oakwood Manor.  Didn't know it was market rate, and was 91% rented out.  New owners plan upgrades too.  

 

http://mibiz.com/news/real-estate/item/22314-investor-group-acquires-oakwood-manor-apartments

I do not think it can be overstated how big of a deal this sale is and what it means to our market.  I think we will begin to see this happening more and more.  The same thing happened over the past 18 months with a big run of out of area investors purchasing industrial space.

The times they are a changing in GRap

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I do not think it can be overstated how big of a deal this sale is and what it means to our market.  I think we will begin to see this happening more and more.  The same thing happened over the past 18 months with a big run of out of area investors purchasing industrial space.

The times they are a changing in GRap

 

Hopson Flats was purchased (I believe) recently by a big apartment group out of East Lansing, as well. The New York company who owns Icon on Bond is moving forward with preliminary work on Icon on Bond II, the Northwest tower. So I hear. :)

 

There are more things I'm hearing but I can really talk about them yet.

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Icon on Bond II.. exciting!  And being done by someone other than the original, hopefully that means an activated ground level this time.

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Icon on Bond II.. exciting!  And being done by someone other than the original, hopefully that means an activated ground level this time.

 

Don't hold your breath. They need every parking space they can get. Even the current tower only provides 1 parking space per unit, which is a pretty low ratio. This is Grand Rapids, where if it's a couple living there there's a good chance that at least one works in the burbs and can't survive without a car.

 

So does the partner park in the street? Scrape frost off the windshield every morning while the other enjoys heated parking? :)

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Hopson Flats was purchased (I believe) recently by a big apartment group out of East Lansing, as well. The New York company who owns Icon on Bond is moving forward with preliminary work on Icon on Bond II, the Northwest tower. So I hear. :)

 

There are more things I'm hearing but I can really talk about them yet.

 

If I could only be a fly on the wall next to your ears :D

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If I could only be a fly on the wall next to your ears :D

 

A lot of it is public record, you just have to know where to look. :) (and when to pick up the phone). Even reviewing mortgage transactions in the Business Journal reveals some interesting "change of hands."

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Rent affordability by city - https://twitter.com/StanHumphries/status/581507111781306368

 

Key in Grand Rapids in the drop down at the website.  You can mouse over the 3 graphs.  Now key in San Francisco :)

 

There's a bunch of subtle inferences here.  Note the disparity between rent vs own affordability.  Landlords owning single family homes near downtown have to be licking their chops seeing what rent is going for with the new developments.

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Rent affordability by city - https://twitter.com/StanHumphries/status/581507111781306368

 

Key in Grand Rapids in the drop down at the website.  You can mouse over the 3 graphs.  Now key in San Francisco :)

 

There's a bunch of subtle inferences here.  Note the disparity between rent vs own affordability.  Landlords owning single family homes near downtown have to be licking their chops seeing what rent is going for with the new developments.

 

You can't just take a single family house and rent it out or split it into a two unit.  It doesn't work that way anymore. Years of misguided policymaking has basically prohibited any new duplex or smaller multiple family housing.  Rigorous housing inspection and enforcement, including adding single family rentals to the pot, hasn't helped either.  All of the safety valves for a tight market have basically been eliminated, which was not all that smart.

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Rent affordability by city - https://twitter.com/StanHumphries/status/581507111781306368

 

Key in Grand Rapids in the drop down at the website.  You can mouse over the 3 graphs.  Now key in San Francisco :)

 

There's a bunch of subtle inferences here.  Note the disparity between rent vs own affordability.  Landlords owning single family homes near downtown have to be licking their chops seeing what rent is going for with the new developments.

 

 

Grand Rapids appears to be mirroring the U.S. when I compare the charts. The scale on the left is a little bit different but not much. What it shows me is that rents are reaching a point where it's making more sense to buy. Typical economic fluctuations. 

 

16368788043_55201b2f81_b.jpg

 

 

 

16987988611_378aba90f6_b.jpg

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You can't just take a single family house and rent it out or split it into a two unit.  It doesn't work that way anymore. Years of misguided policymaking has basically prohibited any new duplex or smaller multiple family housing.  Rigorous housing inspection and enforcement, including adding single family rentals to the pot, hasn't helped either.  

 

I don't see how this is a problem.  so a few slum lords can't make fistfuls of cash taking advantage of disadvantaged tenants, big deal.  

 

as a home owner in the city, I find this somewhat exciting as property values will undoubtably increase dramatically over the next few years. in the mean time conditions for new development are great.

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As someone who prefers rent (and makes even "the dutch" look like big spenders), this is bad for me.  I just have to hope my small-time landlord isn't paying attention to the market and increase the rent.

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I don't see how this is a problem.  so a few slum lords can't make fistfuls of cash taking advantage of disadvantaged tenants, big deal.  

 

It isn't a problem if you have money.  But sometimes, all you can afford is a place that isn't so nice.  If you force those "slumlords" who rent run-down houses to less wealthy people to make improvements, and to have very nice, large apartments, they are going to became "responsible" landlords making fistfuls of cash from people with money.  In my old neighborhood, I saw this happen repeatedly.  As a homeowner, I was elated by the improvements, but rents in those improved places are now up by 50% to 100% in two years (depending on the degree of improvement).  Suffice to say all the "disadvantaged" tenants are long gone...

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Anyone want to do a little project and figure out how many apartments are ) in the works/under construction ) on the drawing boards ) market rate vs LIHTC?

 

My data is pretty outdated from 2013/14. Most of the numbers can be found in articles about the projects.

 

Some to start with:

 

Fulton Place - 112 units, market rate - planning stages/demo

LMD and Seward - 63 units market rate - planning

820 Monroe - 85 units, market rate - underway

Grand Ave/Benson Ave - 290 units, market rate - planning

Arena Place - 101 units, market rate - underway

Venue Tower at the BOB - 104 units, market rate - planning

Alabama Ave project - 100 units, market rate - some demo underway

Aslan Apts - 25 units, market rate - leasing

New Holland Brewing/Gateway Apts - 31 units, market rate - demo underway

Soba/Plainfield project - 99 units, market rate - planning

Plainfield/Lafayette/Quimby project - 60 units, market rate - planning

Lofts on Michigan - 54 units, market rate - underway

601 Michigan - 18 units, market rate - planning

555 Michigan - 7 units, market rate - demo underway

Coit & Hastings - Gateway - 75 units, market rate - planning

Clancy Ave Lofts - 66 units, market rate - demo completed 

Klingman's Lofts - 83 units, LIHTC - underway

345 State St - 42 units, LIHTC - underway

210 Monroe (Olds Manor) - 87 units

Morton House - 100 units, market rate - underway

Eastern & Cherry - 50 units, market rate and condos - planning

20 Fulton East - 108 units, mix of LIHTC/market rate - planning

Wealthy & Division Townhouses - Tapestry Square - 15 units (8 market rate, 7 affordable), - underway

Eastown Lofts - 36 units, market rate - underway

Eastern Avenue/Baxter - 71 units, affordable - planning

1 Carlton Place - 57 units, market rate - planning

 

1939 total. 

 

Around 250 are affordable/low income

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After having to do a little research on the local rental vacancy rates, I skipped the Zillow article (Zillow is such a POS anyway) and went right to the Census data. Interesting find:

You too can take a look:

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html

Here's what I found for 2014 and 2015 for the MSA:

1st Qtr 2014:  4.8%

2nd Qtr 2014:  7.4%

3rd Qtr 2014:  2.0%

4th Qtr 2014:  1.6%

1st Qtr 2015:  9.1%

2nd Qtr 2015:  2.5%

 

So it's kind of all over the map. The 1.6% is what statisticians would call an "outlier." Not saying it's bad but to say it's the best rental market in the country based on one quarter is a stretch. 

Carry on. 

 

 

 

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After having to do a little research on the local rental vacancy rates, I skipped the Zillow article (Zillow is such a POS anyway) and went right to the Census data. Interesting find:

You too can take a look:

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html

Here's what I found for 2014 and 2015 for the MSA:

1st Qtr 2014:  4.8%

2nd Qtr 2014:  7.4%

3rd Qtr 2014:  2.0%

4th Qtr 2014:  1.6%

1st Qtr 2015:  9.1%

2nd Qtr 2015:  2.5%

 

So it's kind of all over the map. The 1.6% is what statisticians would call an "outlier." Not saying it's bad but to say it's the best rental market in the country based on one quarter is a stretch. 

Carry on. 

 

 

 

At one point I know investors and industry analysts used anywhere from a 10-15% vacancy rate on their proformas.  Seeing as how the average vacancy rate over the past 6 quarters developers is not even close to 10%, property owners using a 10 or 15% rate in their financials should be doing quite well from a cash flow basis.

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Honestly if you look at the numbers around it, the 9.1 looks more like the outlier than the 1.6

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Edited by uncus
wrong place

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At one point I know investors and industry analysts used anywhere from a 10-15% vacancy rate on their proformas.  Seeing as how the average vacancy rate over the past 6 quarters developers is not even close to 10%, property owners using a 10 or 15% rate in their financials should be doing quite well from a cash flow basis.

That number is typically a vacancy and credit loss ratio.  Particularly in the high demand areas where college students make up many of the tenants, the assumption is that when a unit turns over every year or two, there will be at least a month of vacancy.  So I'd say it still probably holds fairly true in general. Still, in some areas, you are absolutely right.  5% is more likely. With this overview of all the projects going on, hopefully it is amply clear that no further NEZ or other incentives ought to be given to anyone in the near future...

Edited by x99
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Honestly if you look at the numbers around it, the 9.1 looks more like the outlier than the 1.6

 

Yes, I would consider 9.1% an outlier as well. I personally would strike the highest and lowest numbers, which puts you at a mean of around 4.2% ? It's still pretty good but I hear a lot of people throw around that 1.6% so I thought I'd better check it out myself.  

 

Edited by GRDadof3

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