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What do you guys think of Scott Joseph’s dark lining take on Orlando’s massive infrastructure boom ? 

My surmise is that there is little that can be done about Orlando’s low standing in the wage rankings.

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Scott Joseph thinks its yummy, but the service is bad. I wonder what Scott Maxwell has to say.

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9 minutes ago, AmIReal said:

Scott Joseph thinks its yummy, but the service is bad. I wonder what Scott Maxwell has to say.

Ah, right ... and ?

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A helpful link: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/taking-names-scott-maxwell/os-op-orlando-airport-interstate-4-expansion-scott-maxwell-20190305-story.html

My take: 
The companies that are building these mega-jobs PCL (OIA South Terminal) and SGL (Skanska, Granite, Lane) (I-4) are not "local" companies. For the CM work, the teams that build these types of projects "Go where the projects are" and are largely itinerant.  The real impact is subcontracting community. That government largesse will stop circulating through the subs to the economy, sure. However, here is the thing. There are private sector plans for a TON of new construction currently, namely being new theme parks being constructed and the entire hotel/infrastructure surrounding that. The subs will move to that work. It is not an accident that the mega-projects of new Universal park and other resort expansion is planned for after I-4 and the airport are complete.  

Edited by dcluley98

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1 hour ago, Dale said:

Ah, right ... and ?

I had not yet gotten to the article, but now after reading it I'll agree with dculey on the impact of large scale projects on the economy and most of those working in that segment.

Months ago there was a long running debate here on  this forum re: tourism and the impact on median wages. The service economy does not pay well- I think we all recognize that. Also, the service economy is the fastest growing segment in our region.  So I will also agree with you that there is little that can be done about Orlando's standing in the wage rankings. 

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25 minutes ago, AmIReal said:

I had not yet gotten to the article, but now after reading it I'll agree with dculey on the impact of large scale projects on the economy and most of those working in that segment.

Months ago there was a long running debate here on  this forum re: tourism and the impact on median wages. The service economy does not pay well- I think we all recognize that. Also, the service economy is the fastest growing segment in our region.  So I will also agree with you that there is little that can be done about Orlando's standing in the wage rankings. 

Thanks, guys. Yeah, my point is that “It is what it is” doesn’t warrant a def con warning. Obviously, people are moving here, in droves, because they believe they can do better than where they came from, and well enough here.

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I believe the takeaway is that the overall local economy is very strong and vibrant however we should understand economic segmentation. Maxwell is correct in that the next major downturn will hurt our economy as a whole, but there is a certain, and very large segment, that suffers higher exposure and is least able to afford it. 

Edited by AmIReal
sp

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On 3/11/2019 at 3:14 PM, dcluley98 said:

A helpful link: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/taking-names-scott-maxwell/os-op-orlando-airport-interstate-4-expansion-scott-maxwell-20190305-story.html

My take: 
The companies that are building these mega-jobs PCL (OIA South Terminal) and SGL (Skanska, Granite, Lane) (I-4) are not "local" companies. For the CM work, the teams that build these types of projects "Go where the projects are" and are largely itinerant.  The real impact is subcontracting community. That government largesse will stop circulating through the subs to the economy, sure. However, here is the thing. There are private sector plans for a TON of new construction currently, namely being new theme parks being constructed and the entire hotel/infrastructure surrounding that. The subs will move to that work. It is not an accident that the mega-projects of new Universal park and other resort expansion is planned for after I-4 and the airport are complete.  

Aren't all 3 likely to be happening simultaneously? Rumor has it Universal is targeting a 2022 opening date for the new resort, I-4 Ultimate currently is supposed to be late 2021 now, The airport is supposed to be sometime in 2021, so the resort is probably only running 6-12 months behind those infrastructure improvements. Infact, my understanding is there is a lot of push to get the next phases of all of those projects started as soon as the current phases are completed... Infact, the airport tacked on 3 more gates to the initial phase of the south terminal and just funded plans design for phase 2 of the south terminal. I-4 Ultimate is expected to start building southward from its current endpoint in 2022 another 5 miles of that project, and ROW and design is supposed to be complete in 2021 for another 5 after that, and I imagine Disney will pull their strings to make sure that gets going, so we're looking at another 10 miles south of I-4 being reconstructed as soon as the current projects are done. 

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No, they are not all 3 likely to happen concurrently, IMO, and characterizing them as 3 is not realistic, from a subcontractor standpoint. 

The skilled subcontractor field is limited in supply, and the sophisticated buyers of said services will likely schedule the projects to maximize the quality and price of the subcontracting force in order to complete their projects.   

It will be cascading projects for a long time, with the best, most qualified and reliable subcontractors getting the best and most lucrative work, and the excess work going to the worst subcontractors and getting the worst results, with schedule delays and over-budget c/o's from the less sophisticated and powerful owners demanding more and not knowing reality. 

Disney and Universal will not be impacted, the ancillary fools will take the brunt. 

But what do I know, I'm just some guy on the internet. Nothing I say is real or ever happens. 

Edited by dcluley98

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8 hours ago, dcluley98 said:

No, they are not all 3 likely to happen concurrently, IMO, and characterizing them as 3 is not realistic, from a subcontractor standpoint. 

The skilled subcontractor field is limited in supply, and the sophisticated buyers of said services will likely schedule the projects to maximize the quality and price of the subcontracting force in order complete their projects.   

It will be cascading projects for a long time, with the best, most qualified and reliable subcontractors getting the best and most lucrative work, and the excess work going to the worst subcontractors and getting the worst results, with schedule delays and over-budget c/o's from the less sophisticated and powerful owners demanding more and not knowing reality. 

Disney and Universal will not be impacted, the ancillary fools will take the brunt. 

But what do I know, I'm just some guy on the internet. Nothing I say is real or ever happens. 

Aren't they already happening simultaneously? Sitework is well on its way at Universal

 

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Portions of the Universal project are happening right now, you are correct. I believe they started the sitework package and will begin the infrastructure and roads/parking lot next.

My point is that these aren't just "3" projects. They are more like multiple consecutive projects because of the long-term phased nature. As certain portions of work end on the I-4 or airport project, the subs will roll over to other phases of subsequent work at these large-scale build-outs. That's what I mean by the "cascading" nature of the work. 

It's not as simple as them building everything at once. That just isn't how it works, because parts of each project have to be finished before others can start on the critical path, and also there aren't enough skilled trades to go around for that to happen.  

Edited by dcluley98

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6 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Sometimes we’re just a little too close to appreciate everything going on downtown. Thankfully, Ennis Davis at Jacksonville’s The Jaxson magazine stops in periodically to remind us we really are headed in the right direction:

https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/boom-times-in-downtown-orlando/

Now if we just had an modern streetcar to link all points from North Orange to downtown to SODO, then all services to live car-free in Orlando would be linked together. Take some parking and a lane from Rosalind to run the line n/s.

Edited by prahaboheme
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1 minute ago, prahaboheme said:

Now if we just had an modern streetcar to link all points from North Orange to downtown to SODO, then all services to live car-free in Orlando would be linked together.

On that front, I think my biggest surprise is just how much use the undocked Lime bikes seem to be getting.

Since they launched, I’m seeing more of them in use than I expected.

Also, the horror stories about them are so far mostly unfounded from what I can see.

If you’re an OCD sort, it’s probably disquieting just seeing them left at random spots. So far, they aren’t all falling apart and left in the middle of the road and all the other various portraits of doom some predicted have yet to come to pass.

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Orlando Weekly does its annual breakdown of the area, neighborhood by neighborhood.

Just the descriptions of the various sections around town make it a must read and it’s also a great way to catch up on changes to places you might not get to very often:

https://m.orlandoweekly.com/orlando/ArticleArchives?category=2240488

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Orlampa’s coming! (but you’re not allowed to call it that). Curbed looks at all the growth in Central Florida and notes Lakeland-Winter Haven is growing even faster than The Villages (and a much lower median age).

https://www.curbed.com/platform/amp/2019/4/23/18511006/orlando-tampa-real-estate-housing-development

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14 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Lakeland-Winter Haven is growing even faster than The Villages (and a much lower median age).

How difficult could that possibly be?  "You're only 80? Welcome home, kiddo!"

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20 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Orlampa’s coming! (but you’re not allowed to call it that). Curbed looks at all the growth in Central Florida and notes Lakeland-Winter Haven is growing even faster than The Villages (and a much lower median age).

https://www.curbed.com/platform/amp/2019/4/23/18511006/orlando-tampa-real-estate-housing-development

Hopefully that growth translates to some decent infill development in Lakeland — likely Central Florida’s most overlooked gem.

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19 minutes ago, prahaboheme said:

Hopefully that growth translates to some decent infill development in Lakeland — likely Central Florida’s most overlooked gem.

Lakeland has a lot going for it but I have to confess that, over the years, I’ve often been put off by attitudes over there. Polk County, for example, is technically named “Imperial” Polk County, which sums up the attitude.

Also, Publix is still living in a 1950’s Polk County bubble that makes even Walmart look progressive.

In college and in the years after I worked with a lot of native Lakelanders, including those who stayed home at FSC for college so as not to give up the wealthy little cliques they were raised in. Meanwhile, the phosphate miners and grove workers were treated like dirt.

Suffice it to say, even Winter Parkers were regular Birkenstockers compared to the Lakeland crowd.

I’ve read over the years that Lakeland is coming around, and Heaven knows natives like Lawton Chiles are the exceptions that have proved the rule. I hope so but I freely admit it will take some work before I’m a believer.

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On ‎4‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 5:09 PM, spenser1058 said:

Orlampa’s coming! (but you’re not allowed to call it that). Curbed looks at all the growth in Central Florida and notes Lakeland-Winter Haven is growing even faster than The Villages (and a much lower median age).

Speaking of exhurbs… what goes up must come down (rinse, repeat)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-can-be-risky-to-buy-a-house-in-the-exurbs-but-will-todays-buyers-care-2019-04-17

The Villages continues to be a very good investment (God only knows why), but I'm not sure Polk will weather the next downturn very well.

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Hard for the whipper snappers to remember when Church St was the thing, but I had many a good time there. Some I even remember.

I don't, however, remember top of the building that is now the entry to Ceviche being flat as this photo shows. In my minds eye it has always been arched as it is today.

 

K022059.jpg

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