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The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread


TopTenn

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6 minutes ago, TNinVB said:

I lived in Tokyo for two years and never encountered a major problem using their train system. It is easy to navigate once you get over the fact of how extensive it is. Also, it is my experience that the Japanese are some of the friendliest people in the world and were always willing to help out if I was lost. Godzilla never seemed to be a problem either. 

I'm thinking Godzilla is up closer to Fukushima. ;)

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Never said evil and never said theft, but just short of it... And, while I would love to pursue a debate on political philosophy and government overreach, I have been shut-down enough by the mods to not waste my time.

Now, to build on my earlier point about emerging technologies perhaps eclipsing the need for the 6BIL mass-transit plan...I think we can all agree that if we could effectively double our road capacity it might impact our need for the mass-transit plan as proposed.

Amazon Self Driving Roads Patent

 

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I will help you out and reiterate that I am not advocating ANY of the technologies that I and others have posted in this thread. What I am saying is that there are emerging technologies and new modes of transportation that need to be investigated BEFORE this city decides to spend 6BIL (if history is a guide 7-8BIL) and 10-15 years implementing a transportation solution that is potentially less than optimal. Additionally, it is not just the initial capital outlay to be considered. The ongoing operational costs for the 6-8BIL plan are exorbitant and will be constantly rising. With many of these newer modes of transit there are limited labor intensive drivers and/or operators to fund.

 

2 hours ago, SoundScan said:

Interesting that you continue to advocate for unknown/unproven/non-existent technologies of unknown cost. Seems a bit contradictory with your earlier statements regarding transparency and due diligence.

 

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52 minutes ago, Hey_Hey said:

With the rapid progression of autonomous driving in the last two years, I really believe that our $6 billion plan will be antiquated before the first shovel of dirt is turned. Autonomous drive is effectively here (for those that can afford it) with the Tesla Model S and X. The Model 3 will bring it much more mainstream.  Coupling electric technology with autonomous drive is a complete game changer when it comes to traveling medium distances on highways and interstates (10-30 miles).  With electric vehicles the per mile cost of driving withers to pennies, and with autonomous driving the time in the car is suddenly not so unbearable.  In a world in which anyone making $50,000 can sit in a car and not actively drive the motivation to ride mass transit shrinks considerably.

I don't think that means we sit and do nothing, but I think we should be smart. i definitely wouldn't invest $250 million in a transit corridor to Brentwood.  I do think in town transit will be viable, so I would focus on routes down West End, Charlotte, Gallatin, and Nolensville, and I would like to see some type of LRT/streetcar/aerial gondola/elevated train connecting downtown to Midtown/Music Row/the Gulch/Sobro/West End.  

I feel the same. This should've been done 20 years ago

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I will add that autonomous vehicles do nothing to mitigate the simple issue of the roads being overcrowded.

Sure, there are arguments that suggest autonomous vehicles do not suffer from the human tendencies which cause most traffic congestion, but that won't make a significant difference until they make up the majority of vehicles on the road. Hazarding a guess that we are ten years away from the point at which self-driving cars are safe and reliable enough to be trusted by the average person, you still have to add on the average life of an automobile (15 years?) before the existing non-autonomous vehicles need to be replaced. At that point, we're 25 years away from seeing any substantial impact.

No matter what, you need fewer cars on the road.

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14 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

With the rapid progression of autonomous driving in the last two years, I really believe that our $6 billion plan will be antiquated before the first shovel of dirt is turned. Autonomous drive is effectively here (for those that can afford it) with the Tesla Model S and X. The Model 3 will bring it much more mainstream.  Coupling electric technology with autonomous drive is a complete game changer when it comes to traveling medium distances on highways and interstates (10-30 miles).  With electric vehicles the per mile cost of driving withers to pennies, and with autonomous driving the time in the car is suddenly not so unbearable.  In a world in which anyone making $50,000 can sit in a car and not actively drive the motivation to ride mass transit shrinks considerably.

I don't think that means we sit and do nothing, but I think we should be smart. i definitely wouldn't invest $250 million in a transit corridor to Brentwood.  I do think in town transit will be viable, so I would focus on routes down West End, Charlotte, Gallatin, and Nolensville, and I would like to see some type of LRT/streetcar/aerial gondola/elevated train connecting downtown to Midtown/Music Row/the Gulch/Sobro/West End.  

There are many reasons to believe that AVs could make traffic congestion worse.

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8 hours ago, Gracie said:

There are many reasons to believe that AVs could make traffic congestion worse.

I think that could be true, but it doesn't significantly change the motivation to use public transit over autonomous cars.  I would gladly take a 50% longer commute (time-wise) if it meant I could relax and do something other than drive. 

If people are given the option of a 45 minute drive in an autonomous car vs a 30 minute ride in a bus, train, or other transit modality, I know what most people will choose.  Most people will choose to sit in the comfort of a car (whether they own it or use it as in Uber or Lyft) while it takes them from their house to their destination without having to switch forms of transit.

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1 hour ago, Gracie said:

... Everyone is going to be able to afford personal AVs or even shared AV service? ...

Longterm, most of the cost of running a transit system is employees.  When driverless vans/buses become a reality, public transit may become far more frequent (on call 24 hours?) and thus more attractive than it is now.  Personally, I'd prefer a bus to a car, cars are kind of cramped.

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10 hours ago, Neigeville2 said:

Longterm, most of the cost of running a transit system is employees.  When driverless vans/buses become a reality, public transit may become far more frequent (on call 24 hours?) and thus more attractive than it is now.  Personally, I'd prefer a bus to a car, cars are kind of cramped.

Totally agree -- AV vans/buses (along with rail) are the solution. On-demand public transit is something I wish there was more experimentation with now -- ie Bridj in Boston (but of course here they'd have to be more door-to-door here thanks to our lack of density and sidewalks :-( ) Seems like it might be an interesting way to locate demand and ease people into public transit.

And I'd take a bus over a car too! Having to buy a car was my biggest issue with moving here. 

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12 hours ago, Gracie said:

It might be more than 15 minutes of a difference because I plan on training my dog to go to doggie daycare by himself in an AV.

But of course time isn't the only issue. Cost is also an important consideration. Everyone is going to be able to afford personal AVs or even shared AV service? And if it is a personal AV you are paying to park it - or maybe sending it home empty which is a whole other issue. 

But anyway this discussion shouldn't be AV vs transit -- the solution is going to be AV + transit. 

I think you're missing my point.  I'm not saying, "No transit."  I think long time readers on here will recognize me as someone who has long been an ardent transit supporter (to the point of attending MTA meetings to discuss potential future routes).  What I am saying is that we need to recognize that the transportation landscape will change dramatically in the next 10-20 years and we need to plan accordingly.  I fully admit that a fleet of autonomous cars is probably 20 years away, but that is also the time horizon that our current transit plan is envisioning. 

There is a company out of Boston (also operating in Kansas City) called Bridj that is essentially merging ride sharing and mass transit.  That could work here today, but it will really be an improvement with autonomous tech. For those who aren't familiar with Bridj, it crowdsources potential riders and then its software plans the most efficient route to pick those people up very close to their doorsteps and drop them very close to their workplaces. Something like that is what is going to change transit in Middle Tennessee.  

Our suburban population is not going to drive to a park and ride in Cool Springs or Indian Lake and get on a bus to ride into town in large numbers.  That is doubly true if my car does 90% of the driving.  However, if a 15 passenger van (autonomous or not) picked people up in their subdivision and dropped them off within 2 blocks of their workplace, then I do see that being successful. For most of our suburban population, they could be half way to work by the time they get to their transit pickup point in the current nMotion plan.  Why can't Nashville, MTA, and RTA openly embrace a technology like that and roll it out here?  

In town (inside 440 and Briley) traditional transit can work because the density is there to give people service to and from common destinations with minimal transfers or use of any personally owned vehicle. The problem is that our core neighborhoods aren't creating the traffic headaches as it currently stands, it's the suburban population (Green Hills/Donelson/West Meade and further out) that is the bulk of the population and traffic. We can't address our mobility issues until those residents' needs are addressed, and I just don't see the current plan doing that now or especially in the future with autonomous driving technology.  

  

Edited by Hey_Hey
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It looks like we were both thinking of Bridj....:tw_glasses:

I would also add one more thing.  The ultimate goal of our transportation system is to get people from Point A to Point B in the most efficient, clean, and safe manner possible.  The goal is not to expand bus or train service necessarily, nor is it to promote the rapid movement automobiles.  Those are a means to an end, but focusing on those means may very well miss another transit technology or modality that is better. 

Edited by Hey_Hey
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21 minutes ago, Hey_Hey said:

I think you're missing my point.  I'm not saying, "No transit."  I think long time readers on here will recognize me as someone who has long been an ardent transit supporter (to the point of attending MTA meetings to discuss potential future routes).  What I am saying is that we need to recognize that the transportation landscape will change dramatically in the next 10-20 years and we need to plan accordingly.  I fully admit that a fleet of autonomous cars is probably 20 years away, but that is also the time horizon that our current transit plan is envisioning. 

There is a company out of Boston (also operating in Kansas City) called Bridj that is essentially merging ride sharing and mass transit.  That could work here today, but it will really be an improvement with autonomous tech. For those who aren't familiar with Bridj, it crowdsources potential riders and then its software plans the most efficient route to pick those people up very close to their doorsteps and drop them very close to their workplaces. Something like that is what is going to change transit in Middle Tennessee.  

Our suburban population is not going to drive to a park and ride in Cool Springs or Indian Lake and get on a bus to ride into town in large numbers.  That is doubly true if my car does 90% of the driving.  However, if a 15 passenger van (autonomous or not) picked people up in their subdivision and dropped them off within 2 blocks of their workplace, then I do see that being successful. For most of our suburban population, they could be half way to work by the time they get to their transit pickup point in the current nMotion plan.  Why can't Nashville, MTA, and RTA openly embrace a technology like that and roll it out here?  

In town (inside 440 and Briley) traditional transit can work because the density is there to give people service to and from common destinations with minimal transfers or use of any personally owned vehicle. The problem is that our core neighborhoods aren't creating the traffic headaches as it currently stands, it's the suburban population (Green Hills/Donelson/West Meade and further out) that is the bulk of the population and traffic. We can't address our mobility issues until those residents' needs are addressed, and I just don't see the current plan doing that now or especially in the future with autonomous driving technology.  

  

Maybe I've heard the argument that there is no reason to invest in public transit because AVs are going to solve all our issues one too many times ;-)

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An interesting dovetail from my comment above related to capacity is if larger capacity vehicles ("buses", for ease of discussion) ended up being the autonomous vehicles on the road, as opposed to a bunch of privately owned vehicles.

Just like a bunch of autonomous sedans rolling around town completely empty is obviously not the solution, the number of buses currently rumbling around Nashville at this very moment also completely empty is obviously not the solution either! I could see a fleet of smaller 12-15 passenger buses rolling around in on-demand fashion being very successful in a place like Nashville.

As we all know, the enormous cost of mass transit is in the infrastructure and permanent facilities required to operate. One thing we already have is (too many plenty of) roads, which is why more/improved buses are currently the most practical solution to improve our transit capabilities. That being said, even the suggested improvements to traditional bus transit require fancy (read: expensive) stations & fare collection systems just to bring them up to the level where they are generally as appealing as rail.

I'm as guilty as anyone of succumbing to the sex-appeal of light rail transit, but at the end of the day, I really just want to get from point A to point B. If an autonomous bus could provide me with a 100% point-to-point solution and remain competitive with commonly accepted mass transit fare prices and transit time, then the hell with rail--that's a pretty sexy solution right there.

Basically, you'd have an "autonomous Uber bus" (larger vehicles spread the cost amongst all passengers = lower fares than Uber sedans) which you could hail from your smartphone (no expensive stations or fare-collection systems), it would pick you up anywhere and drop you off anywhere (no "last mile" transfer inconvenience) in roughly the same amount of time and for roughly the same price as a traditional mass-transit trip.

EDIT: This of course could be augmented by heavy rail transit for longer distances or where it was otherwise obviously a better solution (between cities, airport to downtown, etc.).

Edited by Vrtigo
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