The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread

[SoundScan]

Thought experiment: If tomorrow morning suddenly 20% of all vehicles on the road were fully autonomous (Level 5 autonomy--which doesn't yet exist) what impact do you think it would have on traffic and commute times? I would argue little if any effect at all. And thinking realistically, the 20% AV fleet penetration milestone is likely 20 years away.

 

 

[Hey_Hey]

2 hours ago, SoundScan said:

Thought experiment: If tomorrow morning suddenly 20% of all vehicles on the road were fully autonomous (Level 5 autonomy--which doesn't yet exist) what impact do you think it would have on traffic and commute times? I would argue little if any effect at all. And thinking realistically, the 20% AV fleet penetration milestone is likely 20 years away.

 

A couple things.  

First, Level 5 isn't needed (and may not be a true reality for decades) to revolutionize auto transport in cities. Level 4 is all that is needed to be completely independent of human input in and around cities or other geofenced geographic locations.  

Secondly, traffic times become a significantly less motivating issue with Level 4 autonomy (and even Level 2 and 3 autonomy) because the time spent in the car is productive (Level 4) and much less stressful (Level 2 and 3).  It is important to remember that public transit should not be thought of as a way to reduce congestion, because it will not. Hence the reason that cities with the best public transit still have horrendous auto congestion. Public transit offers an alternative to driving a car for those who are interested.  

With Level 4 technology the decision for most individuals will come down to:

A. Walk 1/4 mile to a  public transit station, pay $2.50, ride on the bus/LRT/streetcar to hub, switch to local route, arrive at transit station, walk 1/4 mile to work. 

B. Get in Level 4 car in driveway (either through owning a car or autonomous ride sharing service), drive to work, get out in front of building. Pay $2.50-$5.00 for ride sharing service, or pay $0.25 in marginal cost of electricity if the car is owned personally (essentially all Level 4 cars will be electric). 

I would argue that as long as Option B is less than ~125% of the travel time of Option A that the majority of people will choose Option B.

[nashvylle]

Cities will need both mass transit and driverless cars.

[titanhog]

[Neigeville2]

Something that seems to get left out of the cars vs. public transit debate is that reliance on cars prevents the development of a certain kind of urban environment.  It's not a question of what would Manhattan (Tokyo, Seoul, London, Paris, Hong Kong) be like if everyone had to get around them in a car, autonomous or not.  They couldn't exist.  The world would be Dallas.  I want a robust transit system in Nashville because I want our city's growth to create a choice of environments for people to live in (and visitors to explore).  If autonomous vehicles reduce the world to some kind of private transit only system they'll destroy real cities and the intense human interaction they create, and reduce choice for everyone. 

And of course systems that can transport huge numbers of people in a small right of way don't reduce congestion for cars, they increase it because they promote development too dense for cars to handle.  That's what I want.  Cities shouldn't be designed to serve cars, cars (as needed) should serve cities.

[BnaBreaker]

1 hour ago, Neigeville2 said:

Something that seems to get left out of the cars vs. public transit debate is that reliance on cars prevents the development of a certain kind of urban environment.  It's not a question of what would Manhattan (Tokyo, Seoul, London, Paris, Hong Kong) be like if everyone had to get around them in a car, autonomous or not.  They couldn't exist.  The world would be Dallas.  I want a robust transit system in Nashville because I want our city's growth to create a choice of environments for people to live in (and visitors to explore).  If autonomous vehicles reduce the world to some kind of private transit only system they'll destroy real cities and the intense human interaction they create, and reduce choice for everyone. 

And of course systems that can transport huge numbers of people in a small right of way don't reduce congestion for cars, they increase it because they promote development too dense for cars to handle.  That's what I want.  Cities shouldn't be designed to serve cars, cars (as needed) should serve cities.

[markhollin]

On Thursday, Metro Public Works rolled out an interactive map that lets you track current, past and future capital projects, in addition to the costs of those projects.

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/12/22/public-works-rolls-out-interactive-map-to-help-you.html

Direct link to map site here:

https://mpw.nashville.gov/CapitalProjects/Project/InteractiveMap

 

[bigeasy]

I hope this doesn't destroy the conversation in here since it is border line political, but someone I was talking to over the weekend was talking about the public transportation referendum. They asked me how I was going to vote on it and I mentioned I hadn't thought about it much. Then they mentioned that it would raise our property taxes to be the 2nd highest in the nation. I didn't think they had decided where or how it would be funded? Is that just a scare tactic that people are spreading?

[nashvylle]

I think our sales tax will be the second highest in the nation, not property. 

[Rockatansky]

44 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

I think our sales tax will be the second highest in the nation, not property. 

This. Sales, not Property. Our property tax rate is the lowest of the 4 major cities in TN (or was last I checked).

[bigeasy]

Oh ok. Thanks for the info!

[markhollin]

Just a reminder that Mary Beth Ikard, Manager of the Mayor's Office of Transportation & Sustainability, will be our special guest at the  Urban Planet Nashville Monthly Meet-Up this Saturday, Jan. 6th.  We have delayed the start by 15 minutes until 10:15 since some folks were wanting to view the Draper Tower implosion at the Nashville Yards site at 9:30.  Mary Beth will talk about the new mass transit plan and field questions.

We are gathering at La Lluna Taqueria at 300 James Robertson Parkway (NW corner of JRP and 3rd Ave. North). Plenty of free parking in back. Should be a great group.  Hope you can join us!
 

[titanhog]

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/01/04/mayor-barrys-transit-plan-balloons-9-b-nearly-double-construction-price-tag-when-totaling-other-cost/1004229001/

Mayor Megan Barry's mass transit plan calls for $5.4 billion to build an ambitious light rail system for Nashville over the next 15 years. But billions more would be needed to cover other expenses. 

When also including money to operate the system over that same period, enhance the current bus network and cover maintenance, interest and debt payments incurred for construction, the total cost is estimated to be $8.95 billion through 2032, nearly double the price tag for just the construction.

[nashvylle]

9 hours ago, titanhog said:

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2018/01/04/mayor-barrys-transit-plan-balloons-9-b-nearly-double-construction-price-tag-when-totaling-other-cost/1004229001/

Mayor Megan Barry's mass transit plan calls for $5.4 billion to build an ambitious light rail system for Nashville over the next 15 years. But billions more would be needed to cover other expenses. 

When also including money to operate the system over that same period, enhance the current bus network and cover maintenance, interest and debt payments incurred for construction, the total cost is estimated to be $8.95 billion through 2032, nearly double the price tag for just the construction.

Build an elevated track on 5th Ave instead of a tunnel. Just saved $750MM

[markhollin]

Expert says Nashville's Mass Transit plan is strong because it is not like Denver's:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2018/01/05/transit-expert-nashvilles-mass-transit-plan-is.html

[LA_TN]

The Nashville Media Is Getting Played by Transit-Bashing Hired Guns

[NashvilleObserver]

8 hours ago, markhollin said:

Expert says Nashville's Mass Transit plan is strong because it is not like Denver's:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2018/01/05/transit-expert-nashvilles-mass-transit-plan-is.html

I agree... yet I disagree. Being from Lebanon, I know how much of a blessing the Music City Star line has been for people in my hometown, and people closer to Nashville on the track. It is a perfect example of a line originating in a county outside Davidson County that has consistent high ridership. I think rail lines to Clarksville, Franklin, and Murfreesboro would be incredible. But that is a long shot. On the other hand, considering the size of Denver, compared to the size of Nashville, having light rail lines from outlying suburbs traveling into downtown Denver is comparable to Nashville having light rail lines extend to outlying neighborhoods, even if it is East Nashville and White Bridge Pike. The bottom line is that the congestion problem in Nashville comes from people from outlying counties flooding into and out of the downtown loop. This transit plann doesn't solve that...

[nashwatcher]

Curious. How much does a light rail line spur development? Is it reasonable to expect thousands of apartment units to quickly appear along the routes? What other types of development would light rail lines encourage?

 

 

[BnaBreaker]

8 hours ago, NashvilleObserver said:

I agree... yet I disagree. Being from Lebanon, I know how much of a blessing the Music City Star line has been for people in my hometown, and people closer to Nashville on the track. It is a perfect example of a line originating in a county outside Davidson County that has consistent high ridership. I think rail lines to Clarksville, Franklin, and Murfreesboro would be incredible. But that is a long shot. On the other hand, considering the size of Denver, compared to the size of Nashville, having light rail lines from outlying suburbs traveling into downtown Denver is comparable to Nashville having light rail lines extend to outlying neighborhoods, even if it is East Nashville and White Bridge Pike. The bottom line is that the congestion problem in Nashville comes from people from outlying counties flooding into and out of the downtown loop. This transit plann doesn't solve that...

You're right that getting folks from the 'burbs into the city is important, and that is where commuter rail comes in.   You mentioned how important the Music City Star has been to your neck of the woods, and I hope Nashville plans on continuing to expand that system into other areas of the metropolitan area in the future.

[nashvylle]

9 hours ago, NashvilleObserver said:

I agree... yet I disagree. Being from Lebanon, I know how much of a blessing the Music City Star line has been for people in my hometown, and people closer to Nashville on the track. It is a perfect example of a line originating in a county outside Davidson County that has consistent high ridership. I think rail lines to Clarksville, Franklin, and Murfreesboro would be incredible. But that is a long shot. On the other hand, considering the size of Denver, compared to the size of Nashville, having light rail lines from outlying suburbs traveling into downtown Denver is comparable to Nashville having light rail lines extend to outlying neighborhoods, even if it is East Nashville and White Bridge Pike. The bottom line is that the congestion problem in Nashville comes from people from outlying counties flooding into and out of the downtown loop. This transit plann doesn't solve that...

I think for Middle Tennessee to solve this problem, we need BRT lanes only during rush hour 

[Pdt2f]

Once a legit transit grid is in place in Nashville, it becomes more desirable for outlying counties to “hook in” to it with commuter rail. If the transit referendum passes and the resulting transit changes make it convenient, cheap, and easy, I could totally see surrounding counties being more willing to help pay for commuter rail. I have my issues with the mayor’s plan but regional improvements in transit should follow a “yes” vote in May, just not immediately. 

[markhollin]

In the Jan 4th edition of The Nashville Scene the cover feature was "10 Stories to Watch in 2018."  One of the ten was on Nashville's impending Mass  Transit vote in May:

https://www.nashvillescene.com/news/cover-story/article/20987448/stories-to-watch-in-2018-in-transit

[Neigeville2]

On 1/5/2018 at 8:46 AM, nashvylle said:

Build an elevated track on 5th Ave instead of a tunnel. Just saved $750MM

1) Not quite that much, rule of thumb from what I read is elevated costs about 30% of subway. 

2) The tunnel will also carry the rapid buses in the same ROW, allowing buses and trains to cross downtown in 4 minutes regardless of traffic, I doubt if an elevated track would share this functionality although maybe that's a possibility.

3) There is also a serious engineering constraint in this alignment because trains cannot handle steep grades and there is a big hill between Church and Broadway, an elevated train would probably end up running way up in the air in front of the convention center and 5th and main which no one would like.  Which brings me to 

4) it won't happen because every resident and business on the route would fight it.

I'd love to see elevated trains running down the pikes (or even just a few flyovers like a bridge on Nolensville going over the Woodmont intersection), but shutting down the narrow ROW of 5th for construction and then hiding all the beautiful facades behind a concrete ramp with buses and trains running down it is a horrible idea not to mention a political impossibility.

And if anyone tries to scare you with tales of the $4.5 billion 2nd Avenue Subway in Manhattan, the tunnel and tracks-thru granite-were only $975MM of that, most of the price was the stations and I think they way overspent on art & architecture, the pictures don't look that great.

[Neigeville2]

I just want to add, the tunnel doesn't inconvenience anybody except for short stretches of cut-and-cover at either end, the boring itself will be so boring no one will know it's happening.  BART was all cut-and-cover and studies have found commercial activity on some affected streets didn't return to prior levels for 30 years.  That has to be factored into the cost.  Elevated would be less disruptive and 5th Ave is resilient, but you are saving money by dumping some of the costs on landowners and residents along the route. and that is also costing the city revenue.

[titanhog]

I mean, in the end, a subway system seems like the most obvious long-term "effector" of change towards better movement in the core.  But, of course, it's also the most expensive.  The question is whether or not it pays us back in the end.  Not sure how much upkeep is on subways vs. above-ground transit systems.