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The Transportation and Mass Transit Megathread


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On 6/26/2019 at 7:33 PM, Dale said:

Seems like the transit defeat has left Briley shaken. Other candidates press ahead.

Not sure if necessarily shaken but certainly less ambitious/more pragmatic (depending on your point of view). I watched the debate and recall Briley specifically pressing for the rail link from downtown to the airport via Murfreesboro Pike. He did noticeably reference the transit defeat as a "defeat of Mayor Barry's plan" rather than his own, distancing himself from that defeat and potentially setting up for a revised one in the future. Though as previously mentioned, only Clemmons outright supported immediate action on a new comprehensive transit proposal (and overall Clemmons was more outspoken and ambitious, in my opinion - completely independent of any political assessment, I haven't found Briley to be much of a charismatic speaker).

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2 hours ago, SoundScan said:

Correlation =/= causation, but I'll bet if you overlay that graph with one of smartphone market penetration the trends will line up.

Yep. Here are global smartphone sales (couldn't find a good U.S. graph going back this far). Inflection point at 2009-2010 lines up perfectly with the nadir in the pedestrian fatality graph.

smartphones.jpg.fb9fc09e3dbfceb440bc8574d1afd2a1.jpg

Graph credit - Mary Meeker at KPCB

2 hours ago, titanhog said:

Why were there so many in 1990?

I always get suspicious when a graph is cropped like this, since this kind of "dramatization" by scaling the graph to the extremes is one of the classic tricks in "How to Lie with Statistics." However, I found data from the IIHS going back further, and the 1980s were all worse than 1990. The real question is what move was made from 1990 to 1991 that cut fatalities so dramatically. Here's a graph of the IIHS data that I made from the data compiled at https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/pedestrians .

There's a whole lot of interesting subgroup data on that page as well, including sex (male being much more likely than female), inebriation status (take a guess), urban vs. rural (the uptick is almost solely in the urban setting), and time of day (evening being worst). The risk factors for dying as a pedestrian sure make downtown Nashville seem like a pretty bad situation. Absolute number of deaths is easy to understand, but really one would ideally be looking at death rates, since the population has grown, especially urban populations where most of these deaths are happening.

image.png.a3f4d8d82026d94fc90797d90461a9ec.png

Edited by AsianintheNations
images too big
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22 hours ago, PaulChinetti said:

Fun times in America. Europe is a 3rd less. 

https://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/pedestrian_safety/index.html

From the CDC article: "Most pedestrian deaths occur in urban areas, non-intersection locations, and at night."  The use of phones can impair both drivers and pedestrians.

On Monday, the hands free law takes effect in Tennessee.

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The rate of European pedestrian deaths has gone down though while we have gone up. Even as smartphone usage has increased. 

17 hours ago, AsianintheNations said:

Yep. Here are global smartphone sales (couldn't find a good U.S. graph going back this far). Inflection point at 2009-2010 lines up perfectly with the nadir in the pedestrian fatality graph.

 

 

41849BF5-E079-4F51-97AD-01AA674011C1.jpeg

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Also, gas is much more expensive in Europe, which results in fewer auto trips and smaller cars. Our inflation adjusted gas prices have been dropping annually since about 2002, resulting in more trips by car and more purchases of larger automobiles. Larger suv’s are far more likely to result in pedestrian death when a crash occurs because they are set up so high. Also, I have no data here, but urban streets seem to be much narrower in Europe, which I would guess reduces auto speed and makes pedestrian crossings easier.

It still seems like phones are a big factor, but people use phones in Europe too.

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On 6/29/2019 at 12:40 PM, PaulChinetti said:

The rate of European pedestrian deaths has gone down though while we have gone up. Even as smartphone usage has increased. 

 

41849BF5-E079-4F51-97AD-01AA674011C1.jpeg

I don't know about the rest of Europe, but being on a cell phone while driving was banned in France in 2003 (unless it's a hands-free cell phone).  I'm sure that helped lower the rate of pedestrian deaths.

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45 minutes ago, jmtunafish said:

I don't know about the rest of Europe, but being on a cell phone while driving was banned in France in 2003 (unless it's a hands-free cell phone).  I'm sure that helped lower the rate of pedestrian deaths.

I wonder if we will see a lowering in Tennessee from July on with the new law taking effect. 

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14 minutes ago, Craiger said:

Does that mean that many of these are j walkers?

Yes.  A pedestrian was struck and killed this weekend while crossing five lane Old Hickory Boulevard at night in a non-intersection location.

https://www.newschannel5.com/news/pedestrian-killed-after-being-struck-by-vehicle-on-old-hickory-blvd

 

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That stretch needs some more crosswalks. Say the person came from the apartments on the others side of the street from Hickory  Plaza (the road sign from the article) to go to the Mapco. 

He's gonna walk all the way down to Old Hickory and Nolensville (to use a crosswalk) to cross then walk back up to the Mapco, please. 

If the city would use some damn common sense on lighting  streets and put crosswalks where people actually need them, I think we could avoid a lot of awful things like this. 

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On OHB depending on where you are, I will bet it could be upwards of a mile stretch between SAFE crossing locations. When I say safe, I mean a crosswalk with a red light. 

Nashville is not built for pedestrians, it is built for the almighty car. I have enough trouble getting people to stop for me as I am forced to cross 11th Ave in the Gulch because of the construction and closed sidewalks. Drivers just Do Not want to stop, and a lot of times I am glad I am not a violent person otherwise I would have gone postal on a lot of these idiots numerous times.

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16 hours ago, markhollin said:

Not happy to see that the Mayor Briley's proposed "ban" on scooters is essentially not a ban. He does himself no favors if they are still on the streets come election time. Everything discussed in the article is quite reasonable, except to those wanting them gone.

In several Uber rides this weekend (and that gets expensive) all the drivers referenced the scooters as they typically were trying to avoid them. " I thought they were supposed to be gone!" was the refrain.  I watched a dad and 4/5 rear old daughter "flying" down my street on one this weekend. (no helmets) 

Edited by Nash_12South
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On 7/1/2019 at 1:25 PM, Rockatansky said:

Could it be a recession driven phenomenon? Bad economy = fewer drivers = fewer fatalities?

Or they made some change in methodology.

image.thumb.png.9713dfb272b50b26bf9560517ac43233.png

Total vehicles miles driven the U.S. barely budged during and after the Great Recession.  They did not resume an upward trend until 2014 or so.

image.png.562161515b3cd9b122829a4189b7a786.png

Comparing the two graphs, miles driven was rising steadily from 1990 to 2009 while pedestrian deaths were decreasing significantly.

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