Projects You Think That Will Not Be Built

[smeagolsfree]

Hey folks,

I just want to get a idea from everyone about what projects you think will not be built that have been announced, especially the ones that have been announced over a year ago.

Don't hold back and give the reason or reasons why.

 

[SoundScan]

• Virgin Hotel - Development delays and construction costs will doom it. Virgin doesn't appear to be that engaged.
• Gulch Buckingham - Don't think this one will make it through before the next downturn.
• 5th and Broadway - As much as I want it to I give this about a 10% chance of being built as proposed without turning into a government-financed public-private partnership.

 

[nashvylle]

15 minutes ago, SoundScan said:

• Virgin Hotel - Development delays and construction costs will doom it. Virgin doesn't appear to be that engaged.
• Gulch Buckingham - Don't think this one will make it through before the next downturn.
• 5th and Broadway - As much as I want it to I give this about a 10% chance of being built as proposed without turning into a government-financed public-private partnership.

 

Agree. 

[smeagolsfree]

I guess the first one that comes to mind for me is 1922 Broadway. This is the project where Noshville was.

The guy has virtually no development experience and has four other projects and dirt has yet to move on any of them.

8th and Argyle

Nashville Sky in Sylvan Summit

The hotel at I 65 and Old Hickory

I will reserve comment on his housing development in Franklin. That one probably has the best shot.

[wmaddbb2018]

Fifth + Broadway.  Seems like it won't happen before economy downturns.  But I hope I am wrong.  It would radically change the density of that area along with 505 CST. 

[MLBrumby]

West End Summit... Reason: Alex S. Palmer

[RonCamp]

2 hours ago, SoundScan said:

• Virgin Hotel - Development delays and construction costs will doom it. Virgin doesn't appear to be that engaged.
• Gulch Buckingham - Don't think this one will make it through before the next downturn.
• 5th and Broadway - As much as I want it to I give this about a 10% chance of being built as proposed without turning into a government-financed public-private partnership.

 

Based on everything I am hearing, Virgin will happen.  There seems to be some momentum now behind the scenes.

Sadly I think you may be right about the Gulch Buckingham.  Won't be a victim of developer being incapable, simply of timing.  Just a guess.  Hope I am wrong.

[Paramount747]

Fifth and Broadway.  For the simple reason Nashville has never gotten a two tower project done...ever. Nashville City Center 1 and 2, Symphony Towers 1 and 2, West End Summit Towers 1 and 2, Adelicia Towers 1 and 2, and there have been others. 400 million dollars is simply a hurdle can financially now may be too big.

Virgin Hotel. Last time I check, it was not even listed on their website as a new market for them.

Turnberry.  The design is just too costly never mind their problems in Miami. There is a reason hotels now are boxes. Curves are way to expensive. That hotel design is simply out of our league. They are still building boxes in Atlanta.

1922 Broadway. I never took this proposal serious.

Elliston Place Tower.  Another Pipedream.

Crescendo.  Travis Kelty has never built a Quickie Mart for Apu to work in, let alone a 23 story tower!

Tri- Brand Marrriott, Holiday Inn, Pizzutti, and the other hotel tower for KVB.  Pipe dreams and brand saturation. Hotels are being overbuilt now.

West end Summit. Whatever one thinks of Mr. Palmer, after 18 years from when this was first introduced in 1998, the time has come and passed. The project was too bold  from the onset, and the fact he wanted $1000 a foot for the condo portion was simply ridiculous. Notice Intercontinental never locate din Nashville. Not just WES, but nowhere. I don't think they were ever serious about Nashville either.

Embassy Suites and un-named hotel. Just announced this wee. More brand saturation. Lets see the Cambria break ground first. Lets see if they can fill rooms with the Westin and Thompson opening about the same time.

Gulch Buckingham. Bold beautiful tower, however; expensive and I still don't think there is room. Structural engineers are going to have a field day with this one.

Anything Mark Bloom Announces.  Enough said.

City Lights. Rolling Mill Hill and Rutledge Hill are apartment areas for the young. It's a turnkey area. Not a condo market at this time, plus they are asking a minimum of $500 a foot! Too high of an area still decorated with warehouses, abandoned buildings, very little retail, and no grocery store.

I think obviously what had already broke ground will be finished, but I think things are slowing down. No major announcements for awhile. Chinese stock market in shambles, gas prices to low, according to some the bond market is shakey, election season, lots of factors for a slowdown.

 

[CenterHill]

Apartments at First TN Park.   I've had doubts since it was announced about the Sounds owners' intentions to actually build these.   In the meantime, apartment projects continue to flood Germantown/North Capital.    Someone may have an update, but the longer we go with no news, the less likely it seems. 

[nashvylle]

1 hour ago, CenterHill said:

Apartments at First TN Park.   I've had doubts since it was announced about the Sounds owners' intentions to actually build these.   In the meantime, apartment projects continue to flood Germantown/North Capital.    Someone may have an update, but the longer we go with no news, the less likely it seems. 

If they aren't built, the city doesn't get property taxes, which means we can't pay off the bonds that are used to finance the stadium, correct?

[CenterHill]

32 minutes ago, nashvylle said:

If they aren't built, the city doesn't get property taxes, which means we can't pay off the bonds that are used to finance the stadium, correct?

I wouldn't say can't, but the funds would have to come from other sources, like stadium operations, and/or potentially a sale of the property or a deal with another developer.   The stadium deal did not obligate the Sounds ownership to build the apartments.   I have no inside information on whether the apartments will or won't happen, to clarify, I'm just speculating like we're sort of all doing in this thread. 

I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Fifth and Broad.   I remain reasonably optimistic on that one, ambitious as it is, because of the players involved.   

[BnaBreaker]

I'm not worried about the Virgin Hotel project.  For whatever reason, they just work slowly.  The Virgin Hotel in New York was announced about six years ago I believe and is only just now breaking ground.  

[japan]

Virgin hotel

Buckingham Gulch

Crescendo

The bachelorette hotel

[dmillsphoto]

1 hour ago, japan said:

 

The bachelorette hotel

I had so much hope for this that I completely forgot about it.

[titanhog]

- Buckingham Gulch - 25% chance - bad timing

- JW Marriott - 50% chance with current render - over budget (also possible they could just sell the property and move on - they've already scrapped the office portion in a market that really needs office space - so I'd say there's a chance they could decide to cut their losses and sell)

- 5th & Broadway - 65% chance - they say they have the financing, but there's so many moving parts that it's still not a sure thing.

- Lifeway campus - 10% anything happens within 5 years.

[East Side Urbanite]

I have to be careful regarding naming specific projects. However (and I have shared this thought with Ron), it seems that of all the large-scale projects (those with a price tag of $15 million or more) announced a year ago or more, upwards of 50 percent will not happen anytime soon, if ever. I know of MANY projects that have been scrapped or that soon will be. But am not at liberty to ID.

The "pinnacle year" of this current boom cycle was 2015. No doubt, 2016 will be a solid year in terms of construction starts on major projects. Then we likely will see a very modest number of starts on major projects in 2017, 2018 and, perhaps 2019.

Banks are skittish to make loans for these projects. The cost of labor, materials and rental of construction equipment is high. Property values are inflated, thus dissuading would-be developers to buy and build.

In short, a slow-down looms.

WW

 

 

 

[titanhog]

1 hour ago, East Side Urbanite said:

I have to be careful regarding naming specific projects. However (and I have shared this thought with Ron), it seems that of all the large-scale projects (those with a price tag of $15 million or more) announced a year ago or more, upwards of 50 percent will not happen anytime soon, if ever. I know of MANY projects that have been scrapped or that soon will be. But am not at liberty to ID.

The "pinnacle year" of this current boom cycle was 2015. No doubt, 2016 will be a solid year in terms of construction starts on major projects. Then we likely will see a very modest number of starts on major projects in 2017, 2018 and, perhaps 2019.

Banks are skittish to make loans for these projects. The cost of labor, materials and rental of construction equipment is high. Property values are inflated, thus dissuading would-be developers to buy and build.

In short, a slow-down looms.

WW

 

 

 

[21jump]

Virgin

Crescendo

Bachelorette Hotel (I was actually thinking about this this morning and couldn't remember the name of the project so bachelorette hotel sounds good, thanks japan)

I think 5th & Broadway gets done but not anytime soon.

I pray every morning that Buckingham Gulch happens.

[MidTenn1]

I think the 12 story Terwilliger-Pappas residence off of Music Row won't happen. The new proposed Music Row zoning plan has that lot restricted to 8 floors. I haven't heard that they got a waiver for extra height yet, but if they haven't, I would not think Metro would set such a precedent that would ignore the new zoning plan.

[rookzie]

10 hours ago, East Side Urbanite said:

I have to be careful regarding naming specific projects. However (and I have shared this thought with Ron), it seems that of all the large-scale projects (those with a price tag of $15 million or more) announced a year ago or more, upwards of 50 percent will not happen anytime soon, if ever. I know of MANY projects that have been scrapped or that soon will be. But am not at liberty to ID.

The "pinnacle year" of this current boom cycle was 2015. No doubt, 2016 will be a solid year in terms of construction starts on major projects. Then we likely will see a very modest number of starts on major projects in 2017, 2018 and, perhaps 2019.

Banks are skittish to make loans for these projects. The cost of labor, materials and rental of construction equipment is high. Property values are inflated, thus dissuading would-be developers to buy and build.

In short, a slow-down looms.

WW

 

 

"His name is East Side Urbanite. He gets tomorrow's newspaper today. He doesn't know how. He doesn't know why. All he knows is when the early edition hits his doorstep, he has twenty-four hours to set things right...."

[wmaddbb2018]

11 hours ago, titanhog said:

- Buckingham Gulch - 25% chance - bad timing

- JW Marriott - 50% chance with current render - over budget (also possible they could just sell the property and move on - they've already scrapped the office portion in a market that really needs office space - so I'd say there's a chance they could decide to cut their losses and sell)

- 5th & Broadway - 65% chance - they say they have the financing, but there's so many moving parts that it's still not a sure thing.

- Lifeway campus - 10% anything happens within 5 years.

50% on JW Marriott?  Really?

[titanhog]

3 hours ago, wreynol4 said:

50% on JW Marriott?  Really?

I said 50% with the current render...meaning there's probably a 50/50 chance it will get built looking exactly like the latest render showed.  After reading all of the comments by Smeagols and Eastside...with them being over budget already...something seems likely to change.  This isn't a done deal at the moment.

[wmaddbb2018]

1 hour ago, titanhog said:

I said 50% with the current render...meaning there's probably a 50/50 chance it will get built looking exactly like the latest render showed.  After reading all of the comments by Smeagols and Eastside...with them being over budget already...something seems likely to change.  This isn't a done deal at the moment.

Yea I did think it was suspicious when they canceled the office tower when there is just about nothing available in that part of town.  Hoping it all works out with a great design.

[VSRJ]

16 hours ago, East Side Urbanite said:

I have to be careful regarding naming specific projects. However (and I have shared this thought with Ron), it seems that of all the large-scale projects (those with a price tag of $15 million or more) announced a year ago or more, upwards of 50 percent will not happen anytime soon, if ever. I know of MANY projects that have been scrapped or that soon will be. But am not at liberty to ID.

The "pinnacle year" of this current boom cycle was 2015. No doubt, 2016 will be a solid year in terms of construction starts on major projects. Then we likely will see a very modest number of starts on major projects in 2017, 2018 and, perhaps 2019.

Banks are skittish to make loans for these projects. The cost of labor, materials and rental of construction equipment is high. Property values are inflated, thus dissuading would-be developers to buy and build.

In short, a slow-down looms.

WW

Well that's depressing. This would happen as soon as I move here...maybe it's the Memphis curse (I kid, I kid, Memphis friends). I've been lurking here for years and have always been amazed at the growing list of proposals and projects already under construction. I guess I was naive to believe every proposal would rise from the ground.

[titanhog]

1 hour ago, VSRJ said:

Well that's depressing. This would happen as soon as I move here...maybe it's the Memphis curse (I kid, I kid, Memphis friends). I've been lurking here for years and have always been amazed at the growing list of proposals and projects already under construction. I guess I was naive to believe every proposal would rise from the ground.

Hopefully it won't be as big of a slowdown as it was around 2008.  That was painful.