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Projects You Think That Will Not Be Built


smeagolsfree

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I do not think the slowdown will be anything like the one experienced in 2008.  We have a lot of projects under construction with more that will break ground.

I suspect the multi family end is what will be affected the most, however this could benefit many looking for apartments and the amount of rent they pay. With a lot of units coming on line over the next 18 months, the price will drop if rentals are slow. More people will be able to afford and fill them up, thus causing more to be built due to demand. 

Another difference is that we will have a number of shovel ready projects so ready to roll when it does pick up. We did not have that after the 2008 slowdown. Many of the developers will just wait till the next cycle.

A slow down will also weed out most of the idiots that have jumped into the gold rush. So that in fact, will be a positive of a slowdown.

Another market that will not be affected is the office sector. The overall and the class  A vacancy rates are among the lowest in the nation.

The hotel market , I believe is about to be overbuilt as far as  the higher end hotels go. There will be a a need for the lower and mid range priced hotels.

We will have to see what happens In  the condo market. You can only have so many buyers for the 300k to the one million range. There needs to be more built in the range of 2 to 3 hundred thousand range, plus a lot of affordable housing.

I also believe a lot of the real estate is way over valued right now. A slow down will be good as well to bring down some of those prices. Not good for the sellers though.

Again, I am no expert or a professional, but just a novice observer and this is just my humble opinion.

 

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8 minutes ago, VSRJ said:

"A city of Nashville's population" is a phrase that stood out to me. I'm hoping for a day when Nashville will join the million plus league.

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1 hour ago, VSRJ said:

Thanks for posting this article. It contains some encouraging statements from both sides of the debate. What stood out to me were some of Chad Grout's comments emphasizing that, while we may see some slowdown, it is only temporary:

Chad Grout, principal broker at Urban Grout Commercial Real Estate, an East Nashville-based brokerage firm that focuses exclusively on commercial property located in the city’s urban core, said the long-term indicators for Nashville are strong and stable. However, short-term metrics, he added, point to a “breathing period” for large-scale projects.

“We’ve come out of a cycle of rapid growth and appreciation,” Grout said. “We think this is temporary because the underlying principles of the Nashville real estate market are so strong — population growth, job growth and a stable and diverse economy.”

Grout said demand for new projects will remain, as he points to work with his clients — some of whom are out-of-towners seeking a Nashville presence — as evidence.

“In the development industry, you’re going to develop as long as conditions are ripe,” he said. “You are going to keep [building] as fast as you can and as long as you can. More and more people enter the market until there’s a natural saturation point that’s a part of a macro-cycle.”

Grout said a “mad rush” of developers working within Nashville the last few years will yield a significant number of large-scale projects being completed this year. Cautiousness might be in order, he said.

“Some people are going to now take a wait-and-see attitude,” he said. “You can call it a slowdown if you need to call it a slowdown.”

While there may be a dampening of construction starts on large-scale residential and hotel buildings, Grout said the development of the very boutique-y projects should stay hot.

“Within the urban core there are a lot of tiers of investment and development,” he said. “The smaller infill products will stay healthy and very competitive. You are going to see a lot of competition for small infill sites. The institutional developers who’re doing the larger multi-family projects pay much more attention to the cost of [obtaining debt], the sources of equity and construction pricing.”

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IMHO, the next cycle of big activity will be around 2018 going onto 2019. We will also have some big projects that are supposed to come on line in that time frame. So, we may be looking at a couple of years of slower growth as we absorb what is going to come on line in the coming year or so.

As the article stated, and what I have been saying for a while is that we will have a renters market very soon as far as apartments.

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On 2/4/2016 at 5:57 PM, smeagolsfree said:

I do not think the slowdown will be anything like the one experienced in 2008.  We have a lot of projects under construction with more that will break ground.

I suspect the multi family end is what will be affected the most, however this could benefit many looking for apartments and the amount of rent they pay. With a lot of units coming on line over the next 18 months, the price will drop if rentals are slow. More people will be able to afford and fill them up, thus causing more to be built due to demand. 

Another difference is that we will have a number of shovel ready projects so ready to roll when it does pick up. We did not have that after the 2008 slowdown. Many of the developers will just wait till the next cycle.

A slow down will also weed out most of the idiots that have jumped into the gold rush. So that in fact, will be a positive of a slowdown.

Another market that will not be affected is the office sector. The overall and the class  A vacancy rates are among the lowest in the nation.

The hotel market , I believe is about to be overbuilt as far as  the higher end hotels go. There will be a a need for the lower and mid range priced hotels.

We will have to see what happens In  the condo market. You can only have so many buyers for the 300k to the one million range. There needs to be more built in the range of 2 to 3 hundred thousand range, plus a lot of affordable housing.

I also believe a lot of the real estate is way over valued right now. A slow down will be good as well to bring down some of those prices. Not good for the sellers though.

Again, I am no expert or a professional, but just a novice observer and this is just my humble opinion.

 

I essentially agree with everything Ron notes here. Good post.

 

WW

 

 

2 hours ago, titanhog said:

Smeagols...would you let us know which large projects may take a "wait and see" approach?  I'm assuming 505 is safe since they've started...but what about JWM?  Virgin?  Buckingham Gulch?  Lifeway campus?  5th and Broadway?

I could name at least five large-scale projects that likely won't happen anytime soon (if at all). But I have to be discrete given my situation. Overall, however, Nashville is still poised to see lots of new construction start this year.

 

WW

 

 

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11 hours ago, titanhog said:

Smeagols...would you let us know which large projects may take a "wait and see" approach?  I'm assuming 505 is safe since they've started...but what about JWM?  Virgin?  Buckingham Gulch?  Lifeway campus?  5th and Broadway?

My sense is that the Lifeway project will take some time and nothing will start until the new Lifeway building is built. Then, I would think a little work would start. If you think the old CC site has lots of moving parts, the Lifeway project will dwarf it. I think we may see a master plan by the end of the year to give the illusion something is happening.

 

i think the Virgin will happen just because Branson will not want to be embarrassed, and will distance himself from the Chase family.

Buckingham is a wild card. It may start by the end of the year and would e a late 2018 opening. The same goes for Fifth and Broadway. These large projects could come on line at the start of the next cycle.

I believe what will take a hit are the mid rise projects that are planned. They may be the ones put on hold till the next cycle. I don't think it's unreasonable that we may see a couple of large condo projects announced. That may be what happens with Buckingham Gulch.

The Noshville site, IMO, will get flipped because that's what that guy does.He is not a developer.

We may see a number of these sites sold to other developers. A lot depends on the health of the individual companies.

All, a few, or none of these predictions may come to pass.

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33 minutes ago, smeagolsfree said:

My sence is that the Lifeway project will take some time and nothing will start until the new Lifeway building is built. Then, I would think a little work would start. If you think the old CC site has lots of moving parts, the Lifeway project will dwarf it. I think we may see a master plan by the end of the year to give the illusion something is happening.

 

i think the Virgin will happen just because Branson will not want to be embarrassed, and will distance himself from the Chase family.

Buckingham is a wild card. It may start by the end of the year and would e a late 2018 opening. The same goes for Fifth and Broadway. These large projects could come on line at the start of the next cycle.

I believe what will take a hit are the mid rise projects that are planned. They may be the ones put on hold till the next cycle. I don't think it's unreasonable that we may see a couple of large condo projects announced. That may be what happens with Buckingham Gulch.

The Noshville site, IMO, will get flipped because that's what that guy does.He is not a developer.

We may see a number of these sites sold to other developers. A lot depends on the health of the individual companies.

All, a few, or none of these predictions may come to pass.

If we got nothing else in this "cycle" besides Fifth + Broadway I would still be ecstatic with everything that has been built in the last few years.  And I know that is a tall order to get this one going but I think it is so, so, so crucial for helping to stretch broadway up and also give life to Commerce St.

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Agreed.  As long as we get JW Marriott, 5th and Broadway, Virgin, and the Buckingham Gulch project, all the rest of it can go by the wayside and I wouldn't be too torn up about it.  Truth be told, I never really gave projects like the Noshville site and Crescendo much of a chance to begin with anyway.  They always just seemed like half-baked affairs to me.  The four aforementioned projects on the other hand have all already seen significant investment both in time and money devoted toward them, which is by no means a guarantee of course, but the people behind them seem to have a great deal more to lose if they don't come to fruition.  All in all I think this slowdown may end up being a good thing, since it will give the city an opportunity to absorb all the new stuff coming online and give everything a chance to kind of catch up and 'settle.'

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13 hours ago, Philip said:

"A city of Nashville's population" is a phrase that stood out to me. I'm hoping for a day when Nashville will join the million plus league.

Our Metro Area already has. As for Davidson County, that may take some time, if ever, we reach 1 million. Shelby is nearly there, but it is much larger in square miles and doesn't have large areas where topography presents a problem to large-scale development. Unless existing large swaths of low-density development are demolished in favor of dense blocks, we may hit a wall around 800,000 or so within 30 years.

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1 minute ago, fieldmarshaldj said:

Our Metro Area already has. As for Davidson County, that may take some time, if ever, we reach 1 million. Shelby is nearly there, but it is much larger in square miles and doesn't have large areas where topography presents a problem to large-scale development. Unless existing large swaths of low-density development are demolished in favor of dense blocks, we may hit a wall around 800,000 or so within 30 years.

Yeah, I don't think city population really carries any weight whatsoever.  Cities like Boston, Seattle, Washington, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Miami are all well below one million people, and they may never reach that mark, but that hasn't stopped them each from becoming some of the most important cities in the world. 

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2 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

Yeah, I don't think city population really carries any weight whatsoever.  Cities like Boston, Seattle, Washington, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Miami are all well below one million people, and they may never reach that mark, but that hasn't stopped them each from becoming some of the most important cities in the world. 

Washington could probably reach 1 million if they lifted the height limits. Of course, that would require mass demolitions of good portions of the city to achieve, same with the rest. Most of the architectural charms of these cities (and livability) would be lost in such a race to reach the magic million within their existing confines. Lots of foreign cities have broken that barrier, but for most of us, they're not exactly a place we'd be dying to live in.

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I agree that there will be a slowdown, but I don't believe there will be a crash anything like we had in 2008.  Even if there is a moderate national recession I see a year or two of slowdowns and then picking back up. There is just so much housing demand right now that construction has to happen. Nashville continues to see population growth, and those people coming are increasingly single which drives the number of units needed per person up. 100 people moving to nashville may have needed 50 housing units in 1995. 100 people moving to Nashville now may need 60 units. The other driver of construction is further infill because of traffic. I continue seeing infill happen more and more. I just recently spoke with a close friend who lives in Nolensville and works in Midtown.  The commute is absolutely killing him, and it has gotten noticeably worse in the last three years. It now takes a little over an hour of drive time each way.  He and his wife are now considering a move to the city to be closer. This is a family that moved to the 'burbs because of schools and now considering putting their kids in Metro Schools (right or wrong the perception is that they aren't as good) because traffic has gotten so unbearable. They may ultimately decide to stay, but the fact that they are even considering it is significant. 

I would like to see some of the development switch from apartments to condos. Apartments are great for bringing people into certain areas and for promoting commercial services, but the residents are generally not as engaged in the political/planning/civic enterprises as condo dwellers. Condo owner-occupiers are invested financially and have an inherent interest in the general direction of the city.  For example, if someone is renting downtown for a year or two they may not be interested in pursuing city ordinances limiting sidewalk closures for construction.  However, if someone is going to live there for 10 or 20 years then they have a much stronger interest in make sure we are a walkable city and that downtown is also livable. 

 

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2 hours ago, Hey_Hey said:

 

 

6 hours ago, fieldmarshaldj said:

Washington could probably reach 1 million if they lifted the height limits. Of course, that would require mass demolitions of good portions of the city to achieve, same with the rest. Most of the architectural charms of these cities (and livability) would be lost in such a race to reach the magic million within their existing confines. Lots of foreign cities have broken that barrier, but for most of us, they're not exactly a place we'd be dying to live in.

Nashville is different from all those cities. San Fran is packed tightly into a small peninsula, so a huge population is impossible, but the whole peninsula is dense with buildings and the Bay area has around 5 million, so it's still a huge area. Nashville, on the other hand has 400+ square miles of land area (even though much of it is rugged terrain). If infill continues, and we can reverse the poor planning of past development, million+ population is possible. We're in an age of constant change in industry, and if there's really another '08 style recession looming, Nashville could stand to gain from it if TN presents itself as business friendly with low taxes and light regs, new companies will want to start up here, and old ones might want to move here. Perhaps then, some of these not-likely-to-be-built projects might be built after all......I said that on purpose to make my post seem relevant to this forum topic.

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5 hours ago, Philip said:

 

Nashville is different from all those cities. San Fran is packed tightly into a small peninsula, so a huge population is impossible, but the whole peninsula is dense with buildings and the Bay area has around 5 million, so it's still a huge area. Nashville, on the other hand has 400+ square miles of land area (even though much of it is rugged terrain). If infill continues, and we can reverse the poor planning of past development, million+ population is possible. We're in an age of constant change in industry, and if there's really another '08 style recession looming, Nashville could stand to gain from it if TN presents itself as business friendly with low taxes and light regs, new companies will want to start up here, and old ones might want to move here. Perhaps then, some of these not-likely-to-be-built projects might be built after all......I said that on purpose to make my post seem relevant to this forum topic.

Actually, you could say San Francisco does have a huge population. It's the second-densest city in the nation and census estimates claim it is now above 850,000. If that figure is correct and growth continues as such, SF could break 1 million by the 2030 census. What's amazing is that there are still large areas of the city with single-family homes.

As for Nashville's "poor planning", almost everything outside the old city limits (pre-1962) was done in the suburban mode. That was the case in the bulk of communities that wanted a house with a yard, two cars and 2 1/2 kids. As much as the desire on the part of some to make things a bit denser and more urban, the majority of folks prefer more of that suburban model.

In any event, I do hope the bulk of those projects get built. I don't want to comment on any of them, because I don't want to jinx them. As much as we get after Alex Palmer, most of us would still like to see his project rise from his lake !

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4 hours ago, fieldmarshaldj said:

Actually, you could say San Francisco does have a huge population. It's the second-densest city in the nation and census estimates claim it is now above 850,000. If that figure is correct and growth continues as such, SF could break 1 million by the 2030 census. What's amazing is that there are still large areas of the city with single-family homes.

As for Nashville's "poor planning", almost everything outside the old city limits (pre-1962) was done in the suburban mode. That was the case in the bulk of communities that wanted a house with a yard, two cars and 2 1/2 kids. As much as the desire on the part of some to make things a bit denser and more urban, the majority of folks prefer more of that suburban model.

In any event, I do hope the bulk of those projects get built. I don't want to comment on any of them, because I don't want to jinx them. As much as we get after Alex Palmer, most of us would still like to see his project rise from his lake !

The whole city could obviously never escape the suburban design, but there's also a demand for dense and urban which ought to be met....and I believe it is.......despite Sir Palmer.

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We may have a slowdown, but nothing like the old Nashville. We are at the point that something will always be under construction and something will always be built.  Keep in mind from 1957 1998 we had a few towers go up downtown every decade. It's only been since 2005 or so where we have had multiple major projects at once and that is the big difference.

Something will always be going on, but after 505, 222 Second Avenue, Sobro, Westin, Bridgestone, Skyhouse, and possibly JW, the tall building craze (300 feet or taller) may become scarce for awhile, but we will get plenty of 5-20 buildings being built.

After the tall 7 are topped, we may not seen anything over 300 feet for awhile. 

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