How will the downtown apartment market shake out?

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, MJLO said:

I'd be interested to know what portion of those jobs created are in the hyper productive lakeshore Holland-Grand Haven area.  Those jobs are counted in GR's metro area, but less likely to add to it's immediate housing market.  (Even though i'm one of the metro GR residents that works on the lakeshore.)

Based on my recollection from when they were split MSA's, Holland-Grand Haven is probably 1/3 of that number. 

So it begs the question, how many apartment units are being added in Kent and Ottawa County? We know there's about 1500 being added downtown, and then there's the Grandville castle, two apartment projects near Knapp and the Beltline, at least one new one in Grandville along Wilson, apparently they're expanding Aspen Lakes on Knapp Street. What other big apartment projects will come online in 2017? Plus, some of these may phase their buildings in, like Ridges of Cascade did (which is apparently full according to the panelists today).

They also showed an apartment vacancy chart that showed it still around 5%, way lower than the national average. 

I found the data:

1st Qtr 2016: 4.1%; 2nd Qtr 2016: 3.5; 3rd Qtr 2016: 6.9%

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html

 

 

 

 

[MJLO]

9 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

Based on my recollection from when they were split MSA's, Holland-Grand Haven is probably 1/3 of that number. 

So it begs the question, how many apartment units are being added in Kent and Ottawa County? We know there's about 1500 being added downtown, and then there's the Grandville castle, two apartment projects near Knapp and the Beltline, at least one new one in Grandville along Wilson, apparently they're expanding Aspen Lakes on Knapp Street. What other big apartment projects will come online in 2017? Plus, some of these may phase their buildings in, like Ridges of Cascade did (which is apparently full according to the panelists today).

They also showed an apartment vacancy chart that showed it still around 5%, way lower than the national average. 

I found the data:

1st Qtr 2016: 4.1%; 2nd Qtr 2016: 3.5; 3rd Qtr 2016: 6.9%

https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/rates.html

 

 

 

 

There are at least two new communities going up right now in Grand Haven.  The Landing at US-31 and Jackson, and Piper Lakes going up at 168th and Comstock.  I'm not sure the situation in Holland.

[GRDadof3]

51 minutes ago, MJLO said:

There are at least two new communities going up right now in Grand Haven.  The Landing at US-31 and Jackson, and Piper Lakes going up at 168th and Comstock.  I'm not sure the situation in Holland.

The economist from Atlanta mentioned that our ratio was a "bit" off. It's probably more like 4:1. My guess is our inventory will go up by about 3000 units in the metro (Holland and Grand Rapids) and we're adding on average 13,000 jobs a year. 

[GRLaker]

1 hour ago, MJLO said:

There are at least two new communities going up right now in Grand Haven.  The Landing at US-31 and Jackson, and Piper Lakes going up at 168th and Comstock.  I'm not sure the situation in Holland.

Holland has no apartment construction happening right now. There is the potential of it happening with the plans for the extension of their main street, but we're not talking much. I am surprised, considering much of the GR area's industrial growth is taking place in Holland/Zeeland.

[HomePortSupplyCo]

I am also surprised there are no apartments going up in the Holland area.  Gentex in Zeeland alone has gone from 2,200 employees in 2009 to 5,600 currently.  A LOT of people commute in from Kent county.

[GRLaker]

3 hours ago, Onekama said:

I am also surprised there are no apartments going up in the Holland area.  Gentex in Zeeland alone has gone from 2,200 employees in 2009 to 5,600 currently.  A LOT of people commute in from Kent county.

One then wonders if they would still do that if more housing/apartments was made available in the immediate Holland-Zeeland area. 30-45 minutes (depending on where in Kent County you live) is fine for some, but not for all - especially in the winter with all of the lake effect snow that hits between the lakeshore and 131.

[GRDadof3]

4 hours ago, Onekama said:

I am also surprised there are no apartments going up in the Holland area.  Gentex in Zeeland alone has gone from 2,200 employees in 2009 to 5,600 currently.  A LOT of people commute in from Kent county.

The apartments at 16th Avenue (?) and 196 are crappy. I too am surprised more high end apartments haven't gone in along that corridor. That whole (basically) failed commercial development at the Chicago Drive exit seems like a logical spot. 

[HomePortSupplyCo]

47 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

The apartments at 16th Avenue (?) and 196 are crappy. I too am surprised more high end apartments haven't gone in along that corridor. That whole (basically) failed commercial development at the Chicago Drive exit seems like a logical spot. 

If you mean the land surrounding the medical building at exit 55, I did see last spring that it was owned by Granger Group and according to Zeeland Township meeting minutes, a company called Redwood Living was supposed to be breaking ground soon on residential and commercial development...  But I thought it would have been moving by now.

[GRLaker]

28 minutes ago, Onekama said:

If you mean the land surrounding the medical building at exit 55, I did see last spring that it was owned by Granger Group and according to Zeeland Township meeting minutes, a company called Redwood Living was supposed to be breaking ground soon on residential and commercial development...  But I thought it would have been moving by now.

Good! That land is in desperate need of it. The medical facility there looks like it's on an island.

[HomePortSupplyCo]

maybe it fell through??  It was announced quite a while ago. http://www.hollandsentinel.com/news/20160301/zeeland-township-board-approves-pud-amendment-for-potential-residential-development

[GRDadof3]

On 1/27/2017 at 3:36 PM, Onekama said:

If you mean the land surrounding the medical building at exit 55, I did see last spring that it was owned by Granger Group and according to Zeeland Township meeting minutes, a company called Redwood Living was supposed to be breaking ground soon on residential and commercial development...  But I thought it would have been moving by now.

Oh yeah, Redwood Living has a project built right behind the Walmart on 28th Street in Cascade area. Not quite what I was thinking of but it seems to fill a niche. 

http://byredwood.reslisting.com/apartments/mi/grand-rapids/whitewater-place-by-redwood/index.aspx

They're essentially attached ranch condominiums but you rent them instead of buy them. 

 

[arcturus]

WSJ on Feb 21 reiterated a slowdown in multifamily construction with financing drying up.  In Q4 50,000 of 88,000 completed were rented.

Taking this to the local level have new announcements started to dwindle?  Is there a sense developers are becoming a bit gun shy with parking and concerns of oversupply with current construction underway?  Has the 42 story been factored?

[arcturus]

Apparently Chicago hasn't got the memo about apartment oversupply yet - http://chicago.curbed.com/maps/chicago-tower-highrise-construction-map

Can someone point to the last proposed 100+ apartment project for here?

[mpchicago]

2 hours ago, arcturus said:

Apparently Chicago hasn't got the memo about apartment oversupply yet - http://chicago.curbed.com/maps/chicago-tower-highrise-construction-map

Can someone point to the last proposed 100+ apartment project for here?

It's crazy, isn't it!   In Chicago about 4500 units are expected to go on line in 2017, and an additional 4200 for 2018!   This winter new buildings were giving up to 2 months free rent to lure renters.  Supply is exceeding demand as occupancy rates for new class A have dropped to their lowest since 2009.  With that said, occupancy rates over all for class A apartments are still north of 90%.   

I was also reading about a new class A 20 story 450,000 sf office building being constructed a couple of blocks from my west loop office......no tenants, 100% speculative!!!

I'm really hoping that 10 Ionia (Hinman) gets off the ground before the apartment market dries up in downtown GR!

[GRLaker]

9 minutes ago, mpchicago said:

It's crazy, isn't it!   In Chicago about 4500 units are expected to go on line in 2017, and an additional 4200 for 2018!   This winter new buildings were giving up to 2 months free rent to lure renters.  Supply is exceeding demand as occupancy rates for new class A have dropped to their lowest since 2009.  With that said, occupancy rates over all for class A apartments are still north of 90%.   

I was also reading about a new class A 20 story 450,000 sf office building being constructed a couple of blocks from my west loop office......no tenants, 100% speculative!!!

I'm really hoping that 10 Ionia (Hinman) gets off the ground before the apartment market dries up in downtown GR!

Based on the lack of anything in the news or anything being posted on it, I'm starting to wonder if it ever will get off the ground.

[MJLO]

1 hour ago, mpchicago said:

It's crazy, isn't it!   In Chicago about 4500 units are expected to go on line in 2017, and an additional 4200 for 2018!   This winter new buildings were giving up to 2 months free rent to lure renters.  Supply is exceeding demand as occupancy rates for new class A have dropped to their lowest since 2009.  With that said, occupancy rates over all for class A apartments are still north of 90%.   

I was also reading about a new class A 20 story 450,000 sf office building being constructed a couple of blocks from my west loop office......no tenants, 100% speculative!!!

I'm really hoping that 10 Ionia (Hinman) gets off the ground before the apartment market dries up in downtown GR!

To put it in perspective Chicago has literally 14x's the population of Grand Rapids.  Which means if Chicago has 4500 units coming online this year, Grand Rapids would need about 322 to stay in proportion.  If there are more units than that opening this year Grand Rapids is theoretically outpacing Chicago on a market basis.  Grand Rapids is gaining population at 4x's the rate Chicago is but when looking at raw numbers it's still barely a blip in comparison.   Point being they may have actually over built a bit in GR.  It'll take some time for absorption to catch the market up, but I don't think that means the apartment construction market is DOA.

[WMrapids]

1 hour ago, GRLaker said:

Based on the lack of anything in the news or anything being posted on it, I'm starting to wonder if it ever will get off the ground.

Same feeling. Please don't go to the rendering graveyard 

[arcturus]

5 hours ago, mpchicago said:

It's crazy, isn't it!   In Chicago about 4500 units are expected to go on line in 2017, and an additional 4200 for 2018!

That may be a low estimate.  I counted close to 10,000 apartments in the article which doesn't include condo's and thousands of new hotel rooms.  Considering they cherry picked the marquis properties to the exclusion of smaller developments (which would get top billing in GR) I wouldn't be surprised to see another 2000 apartments going online in the next few years.

[GRDadof3]

I hear that Allendale is pretty overbuilt with apartments right now, with some projects experiencing 50% vacancy and doing a lot of giveways to get tenants. 

[x99]

23 hours ago, WMrapids said:

Same feeling. Please don't go to the rendering graveyard 

It's all a matter of whether Hinman was doing it to make a statement or actually thought they would make money.  If it was to make money, you would think reality and the bankruptcy or woulda-been-bankrupt-if-the-owners-weren't-filthy-stinkin-rich status of virtually every high rise ever built in this city would kick in at some point....  Just sayin'.  It tends not to end well if you're heavily leveraged.  If it's just a monument to himself and a fulfillment of a dream, though, it'll happen. They key is whether he intends to live in a penthouse on the top floor..

[joeDowntown]

He's actually a very nice guy, not an arrogant prick. He also was born and raised in the apartment game. So I think he knows a thing or two about marketing apartments. I could see them re-configuring a bit. Maybe convince the hotel to take a few more floors? Condos (which I think would actually do well if you can get them financed). Seems like they dotted a lot of i's and crossed a lot of t's to just make a statement and run. And Hinman has been waiting for years until the time was right to develop that lot. So I'm optimistic. 

Joe

[GRDadof3]

I got an email from RJM properties today asking realtors to let their clients know about their new townhouses in Belknap. They'll do short-term 3 month rental agreements. 

Can you say "desperation?"

[MJLO]

2 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

I got an email from RJM properties today asking realtors to let their clients know about their new townhouses in Belknap. They'll do short-term 3 month rental agreements. 

Can you say "desperation?"

Surburban complexes have offered lease terms as short as 3 months for as long as I can remember.

[GRDadof3]

8 hours ago, MJLO said:

Surburban complexes have offered lease terms as short as 3 months for as long as I can remember.

I thought all the projects were on waiting lists?  

I've never been solicited to rent apartments to clients before. 

[GRLaker]

8 hours ago, MJLO said:

Surburban complexes have offered lease terms as short as 3 months for as long as I can remember.

I have only known of 6 and 12 month contracts as well as month to month after a lease is up. There are a few that offer 3 months, but they're a rare find.