Population Growth

[GRDadof3]

Going along with the apartment boom, EVERY community in Kent County saw population growth from 2014 to 2015 in the Census' latest estimates. Grand Rapids, the city of, saw the biggest population increase in Michigan cities over 100,000 population, to reach 195,097. I think that's the closest to the peak back that it's been since back in the 2000's? 

Allendale Township is noted in the article too, which is mind-numbing when you go out there to see all of the apartment complexes going up. 

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/05/new_census_data_shows_where_mi.html?appSession=44824176417442626164611353548293945613251327355240249383266421392955628240665621612319143650854191507454323630481214653522536962

[arcturus]

848 gain for the city.

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

If anyone thinks there's a bunch of apartment construction around here can you image a place like Phoenix with a 25,000 gain?  

Edited May 19, 2016 by arcturus

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

Going along with the apartment boom, EVERY community in Kent County saw population growth from 2014 to 2015 in the Census' latest estimates. Grand Rapids, the city of, saw the biggest population increase in Michigan cities over 100,000 population, to reach 195,097. I think that's the closest to the peak back that it's been since back in the 2000's? 

Allendale Township is noted in the article too, which is mind-numbing when you go out there to see all of the apartment complexes going up. 

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/05/new_census_data_shows_where_mi.html?appSession=44824176417442626164611353548293945613251327355240249383266421392955628240665621612319143650854191507454323630481214653522536962

Anyone want to go through all of those and figure out what the county's total growth was last year? I couldn't find a county total on there?

[RegalTDP]

23 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

Anyone want to go through all of those and figure out what the county's total growth was last year? I couldn't find a county total on there?

You can find that on Census.gov.

Kent County total for 2015 is 636,369, which is an increase of 6,144 from 2014 (630,225, 1.0%) and 33,747 from 2010 (602,622, 5.6%).

Ottawa County total for 2015 is 279,955, which is an increase of 3,357 from 2014 (276,598, 1.2%) and 16,154 from 2010 (263,801, 6.1%).

Ottawa and Kent, respectively, still have the two fastest rates of growth in the state, both annually and since 2010.  Interestingly, Kent's increase in one year (6,144) is almost as high as the state's total net increase in that year (6,270), as well as the amount Wayne County decreased (-6,673).

Grand Rapids MSA for 2015 is 1,038,583, which is an increase of 9,921 from 2014 and 49,463 from 2010.  It is the 52nd largest MSA.

[GRDadof3]

7 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

You can find that on Census.gov.

Kent County total for 2015 is 636,369, which is an increase of 6,144 from 2014 (630,225, 1.0%) and 33,747 from 2010 (602,622, 5.6%).

Ottawa County total for 2015 is 279,955, which is an increase of 3,357 from 2014 (276,598, 1.2%) and 16,154 from 2010 (263,801, 6.1%).

Ottawa and Kent, respectively, still have the two fastest rates of growth in the state, both annually and since 2010.  Interestingly, Kent's increase in one year (6,144) is almost as high as the state's total net increase in that year (6,270), as well as the amount Wayne County decreased (-6,673).

Grand Rapids MSA for 2015 is 1,038,583, which is an increase of 9,921 from 2014 and 49,463 from 2010.  It is the 52nd largest MSA.

Thanks! 

[The ATX]

This is good news for Grand Rapids.  Maybe the 200K number will finally be reached in the 2020 census!

[MJLO]

So I did a break down of some areas in Kent and Ottawa Counties.  Why?....I'm a giant pop stats nerd I always have been.  Going to have to do this in multiple posts due to formatting. See Below:

First I took Grand Rapids and what I would consider it's suburbs in both Kent and Ottawa Counties and compiled data.  I cut off the northern edge at Plainfield/Alpine Township so areas around Rockford weren't included.  I was trying to get as close a match to the actual urbanized portion of the metro as I could.  I added in Allendale, and largely rural Jamestown Twp, which balances it out but doesn't create a true urban picture.  (In order to do that I would have to look at consecutive census tracts at 1000ppsm.  That is a monstrous undertaking, and even less likely the CB would have estimates that would be anywhere near scientific or accurate.)

 

			Numerical Increase
	2010	2015		Exponential	Land Area
Grand Rapids	188,040	195,097	7,057	3.75%	45
Wyoming	72,125	75,275	3,150	4.37%	25
Kentwood	48,707	51,357	2,650	5.44%	21
Plainfield	30,952	32,994	2,042	6.60%	35
Gaines Twp	25,146	26,362	1,216	4.84%	36
Walker	23,537	24,647	1,110	4.72%	25
Byron Twp	20,317	22,575	2,258	11.11%	36
Cascade	17,134	18,715	1,581	9.23%	34
GR Township	16,661	18,151	1,490	8.94%	15
Grandville	15,378	15,953	575	3.74%	7
Ada Twp	13,142	14,344	1,202	9.15%	36
Alpine Twp	13,336	13,876	540	4.05%	36
Caldonia Twp	12,332	13,851	1,519	12.32%	35
East Grand Rapids	10,694	11,311	617	5.77%	3
Total Kent	507,501	534,508	27,007	5.32%	389
Georgetown	46,985	50,340	3,355	7.14%	33
Allendale	20,708	22,937	2,229	10.76%	31
Jamestown	7,034	7,915	881	12.52%	35
Hudsonville	7,116	7,324	208	2.92%	4
Total Ottawa	81,843	88,516	6,673	8.15%	103
Grand Rapids Urban Total	589,344	623,024	33,680	5.71%

[MJLO]

Growth along the Ottawa/Kent Border remains the strongest. The Ottawa suburbs of GR are having the highest population increase in the metro area.  A couple of things to keep in mind.  Population estimates for cities are always wildly off the mark when actual census numbers come out.  1999 estimates had the city of GR at about 184,000 which was 13,000 short of the 2000 census number.   Again in 2009 the CB had GR only loosing a couple thousand sitting around 195k,  but the actual loss was about 7000 more than the estimate.  I suspect this census cycle will be the same.  The 1990s were coming out of a bad economic cycle for Michigan and the CB was overly bearish on it's city estimates in the state, and growth in the urban clusters was much more robust.  The 2000's were coming off of the red hot economic cycle of the 1990's and they were overly bullish.  The 2010s are coming off of the dismal 2000's for Michigan, but again the cycle is currently red hot.  Looking at these numbers my instincts are telling me they are being bearish again. 

When I compare this years estimates to previous years, it appears they are doing a correction in prior estimates.  Even consistent growth cities like Des Moines are showing a slow down over the previous estimates, this happens a lot in year to year estimate patterns.  The Mlive article specifically calls out Allendale's growth, but I think that's just an ignorant Mlive staffer not understanding the breakdowns in numbers.  I drive through Allendale everyday and there are houses going up everywhere.  If you look at it's 2010-2015 growth is 2,229.  2014-15 growth was 1262.  It is theoretically possible, but I still find it highly unlikely that 55% of it's growth over the last 5 years came from just last year.

[MJLO]

Ok next I broke down just the population from the municipalities around GR, the inner ring suburbs if you will. 

If these 7 municipalities were to merge it would create the 48th largest city (391,791 pop) in the country in 141 sq miles. If you ever look at that Kent County map on Wikipedia showing a cities location, these form that square around the city.  It's not a perfect representation because of low density GR township being added.  When I take out GR Township and add in more urban Plainfield Township I come up with the nations 46th largest city (406,634pop) in 155 sq mi.

[MJLO]

Finally I looked at the outlying urban areas in Ottawa County.  I've been working in Grand Haven for the past 9 months and was wondering what the population of the Grand Haven area really was.  I took the 4 municipalities that make up the urbanized portion of Grand Haven and combined them.  I ended up with 45K people in 60 sq mi.  If I take out the rural portion of GH Twp.  I end up with about 40k people in 46sq mi.  Since there is little or no break in development between Grand Haven and Muskegon I am wondering If GH should be counted in Muskegon's urban area. 

Next I combined the immediate municipalities that hold the urbanized portion of Holland.  I came up with 6 areas with a population of 106k.  There is an area of about 8-10 miles that separate the Holland and Grand Haven areas.  If they were separated from Grand Rapids  you have a metro area of over 350k people along a 40 mile stretch of US-31 (Holland-Muskegon).  That would make another Michigan metro Identical in pop size to Ann Arbor.

You can see the city of Holland strattles both Allegan and Ottawa counties.  Allegan County is not part of the Grand Rapids MSA.  It is considered the "Holland Michigan Micropolitan Area".   Statistical areas are always named after the largest city in the designated area, since 7,000 residents of Holland are in Allegan county, Holland is the largest city in the county.  Those 7,000 people are not counted in the Grand Rapids-Wyoming MSA. Holland Michigan is not seated in the Holland Michigan Micropolitan area.   Holland Michigan may be the only city in the country where you can cross a street and leave a metropolitan area without actually leaving the city limits.  It's a statisticians nightmare.

Ok I'm done.  Sorry for overloading information guys,  just a hobby I get wrapped up into.

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, MJLO said:

Growth along the Ottawa/Kent Border remains the strongest. The Ottawa suburbs of GR are having the highest population increase in the metro area.  A couple of things to keep in mind.  Population estimates for cities are always wildly off the mark when actual census numbers come out.  1999 estimates had the city of GR at about 184,000 which was 13,000 short of the 2000 census number.   Again in 2009 the CB had GR only loosing a couple thousand sitting around 195k,  but the actual loss was about 7000 more than the estimate.  I suspect this census cycle will be the same.  The 1990s were coming out of a bad economic cycle for Michigan and the CB was overly bearish on it's city estimates in the state, and growth in the urban clusters was much more robust.  The 2000's were coming off of the red hot economic cycle of the 1990's and they were overly bullish.  The 2010s are coming off of the dismal 2000's for Michigan, but again the cycle is currently red hot.  Looking at these numbers my instincts are telling me they are being bearish again. 

When I compare this years estimates to previous years, it appears they are doing a correction in prior estimates.  Even consistent growth cities like Des Moines are showing a slow down over the previous estimates, this happens a lot in year to year estimate patterns.  The Mlive article specifically calls out Allendale's growth, but I think that's just an ignorant Mlive staffer not understanding the breakdowns in numbers.  I drive through Allendale everyday and there are houses going up everywhere.  If you look at it's 2010-2015 growth is 2,229.  2014-15 growth was 1262.  It is theoretically possible, but I still find it highly unlikely that 55% of it's growth over the last 5 years came from just last year.

Allendale Township single family home growth is moderate at best, not nearly as hot as Georgetown, Byron or Plainfield Twps (last time I checked BuilderTrack). Most of the growth is multi-family, and several large complexes opened out there in the last 2 years. 

Interestingly, GVSU's headcount for this past year was the highest ever at 25,325, but not enormously more than the past few years. 

[RegalTDP]

4 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

Allendale Township single family home growth is moderate at best, not nearly as hot as Georgetown, Byron or Plainfield Twps (last time I checked BuilderTrack). Most of the growth is multi-family, and several large complexes opened out there in the last 2 years. 

Interestingly, GVSU's headcount for this past year was the highest ever at 25,325, but not enormously more than the past few years. 

Algoma Township actually had the biggest increase in Kent County last year outside of GR, which I found interesting.  Seems like new subdivisions are spreading even further north.  I know some Rockfordites would hate to admit they're part of Greater GR, but... They are.

 

5 hours ago, MJLO said:

Finally I looked at the outlying urban areas in Ottawa County.  I've been working in Grand Haven for the past 9 months and was wondering what the population of the Grand Haven area really was.  I took the 4 municipalities that make up the urbanized portion of Grand Haven and combined them.  I ended up with 45K people in 60 sq mi.  If I take out the rural portion of GH Twp.  I end up with about 40k people in 46sq mi.  Since there is little or no break in development between Grand Haven and Muskegon I am wondering If GH should be counted in Muskegon's urban area. 

Next I combined the immediate municipalities that hold the urbanized portion of Holland.  I came up with 6 areas with a population of 106k.  There is an area of about 8-10 miles that separate the Holland and Grand Haven areas.  If they were separated from Grand Rapids  you have a metro area of over 350k people along a 40 mile stretch of US-31 (Holland-Muskegon).  That would make another Michigan metro Identical in pop size to Ann Arbor.

You can see the city of Holland strattles both Allegan and Ottawa counties.  Allegan County is not part of the Grand Rapids MSA.  It is considered the "Holland Michigan Micropolitan Area".   Statistical areas are always named after the largest city in the designated area, since 7,000 residents of Holland are in Allegan county, Holland is the largest city in the county.  Those 7,000 people are not counted in the Grand Rapids-Wyoming MSA. Holland Michigan is not seated in the Holland Michigan Micropolitan area.   Holland Michigan may be the only city in the country where you can cross a street and leave a metropolitan area without actually leaving the city limits.  It's a statisticians nightmare.

Ok I'm done.  Sorry for overloading information guys,  just a hobby I get wrapped up into.

Great stuff, thanks MJLO!  I actually never realized Holland's urbanized area is 100,000+.  What they did with the Holland Micropolitan Area is bizarre, but functionally it's still the same as the Allegan Micropolitan Area that was pre-2013, and Holland/Ottawa County was a separate MSA.  The name is just misleading.

I wonder what the breakdowns of Allegan County commuters are between Ottawa, Kent, and Kalamazoo.  We may not be far off from the Census establishing a combined GR/Muskegon/Holland/Kalamazoo/Battle Creek CSA.  By 2023 that would easily include over 2 million people.  That might be enough to convince Ikea to build a store in Allegan County off of 131.

[GRDadof3]

5 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

Algoma Township actually had the biggest increase in Kent County last year outside of GR, which I found interesting.  Seems like new subdivisions are spreading even further north.  I know some Rockfordites would hate to admit they're part of Greater GR, but... They are.

 

 

Biggest increase, maybe. But largest number of single family home starts went to Plainfield Township, in KENT County (not Ottawa County). This is through 4th quarter of 2015. 

 

[GRDadof3]

This is some really interesting data that I saw posted on another site. 

It shows the population of the 15 largest metros in the Midwest starting at the "city center" for each city. Each additional mile is aggregate (added to the previous mile).

I had no idea that Grand Rapids would rank so high in city density, and holds up pretty well all the way through mile 4.  

Mile 0
1. Chicago: 63,120
2. Minneapolis: 31,036
3. Milwaukee: 21,587
4. Cincinnati: 17,681
5. St. Louis: 17,359
6. Grand Rapids: 16,099
7. Omaha: 15,582
8. Indianapolis: 14,058
9. Kansas City: 13,709
10. Akron: 12,479
11. Cleveland: 9,471
12. Dayton: 9,182
13. Detroit: 8,709
14. Toledo: 8,304
15. Columbus: 7,416

Mile 1
1. Chicago: 181,714
2. Minneapolis: 123,526
3. Milwaukee: 86,261
4. Grand Rapids: 75,613
5. Cincinnati: 65,264
6. Omaha: 56,244
7. Toledo: 55,739
8. Akron: 53,715
9. Columbus: 49,667
10. Indianapolis: 45,079
11. Dayton: 41,053
12. St. Louis: 40,184
13. Kansas City: 32,900
14. Detroit: 32,810
15. Cleveland: 32,193

http://allcolumbusdata.com/?p=1079

 

[Sparty97]

My first reaction was that I was little surprised to see how much downtown GR had shrunk from 2000 to 2010.   I would assume there has been a drastic shift the other way since 2010 as people start to move back downtown.

[RegalTDP]

1 hour ago, Sparty97 said:

My first reaction was that I was little surprised to see how much downtown GR had shrunk from 2000 to 2010.   I would assume there has been a drastic shift the other way since 2010 as people start to move back downtown.

Do you mean the "Aggregate Change 2000-2010" section?  I was wondering about too, since the negatives seem so high.  For all the cities, not just GR.  Midwest cities have really suffered.

Downtown GR definitely grew during 2000-2010.  Census Tract 20 (Downtown and Heartside) and 14 (North Monroe, most of Belknap) were the two fastest growing tracts in the city of GR. (Check the NY Times Census Map here)

However, that only accounts for about 4,500 people.  And keep in mind "1 mile from the center" can include a lot of neighborhoods in GR.  While I can't say for certain what their datum point in GR is, 1 mile from Division and Fulton includes Heritage Hill, parts of Midtown, East Hills, and the Westside, all of which lost population 2000-2010.

All this data seems to be from 2010.  Downtown and its surrounding neighborhoods haven't stopped growing since then, I can only imagine the density must be greater now.  I'm hoping it will be even stronger in 2020.

 

Edited September 8, 2016 by RegalTDP

[GRDadof3]

5 minutes ago, RegalTDP said:

Do you mean the "Aggregate Change 2000-2010" section?  I was wondering about too, since the negatives seem so high.  For all the cities, not just GR.  Midwest cities have really suffered.

Downtown GR definitely grew during 2000-2010.  Census Tract 20 (Downtown and Heartside) and 14 (North Monroe, most of Belknap) were the two fastest growing tracts in the city of GR. (Check the NY Times Census Map here)

However, that only accounts for about 4,500 people.  And keep in mind "1 mile from the center" can include a lot of neighborhoods in GR.  While I can't say for certain what their datum point in GR is, 1 mile from Division and Fulton includes Heritage Hill, parts of Midtown, East Hills, and the Westside, all of which lost population 2000-2010.

All this data seems to be from 2010.  Downtown and its surrounding neighborhoods haven't stopped growing since then.  I imagine the density will be a lot greater in 2020.

 

Yes, all of the Midwest urban areas saw massive out migration from 2000 - 2010, mostly to Southern States, and some of it to suburbs. 

Here's "One mile from center, assuming that this statistician used the true center at Division and Fulton. It's a rough circle so don't kill me. 

I do remember a period of time when you'd drive through Heritage Hill and every other house had a For Rent sign. That was probably 8 - 10 years ago? That was even before the housing crash I think. 

 

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, Sparty97 said:

My first reaction was that I was little surprised to see how much downtown GR had shrunk from 2000 to 2010.   I would assume there has been a drastic shift the other way since 2010 as people start to move back downtown.

Not only downtown but into the city neighborhoods as well. It's pretty difficult to find a decent home to buy or rent in the city of GR these days. I know people whose homes have doubled in value since 2010, in certain areas of the city. That seems like such a long time ago now (2010). 

Also, I don't know that I would characterize it as people "moving back into downtown." From my experience, while there are certainly some people who have given up their suburban homes now that they are empty nesters, and have moved downtown (I know 3 couples for sure), I think a lot of people living downtown are first time either to the area or the first time living somewhere out of college. Or are maybe in college. 

[Gorath]

It's measured from Grand Rapids City Hall. 

Quote from the All Columbus Data website, "One of the more interesting things the Census measures is the population from “City Hall”, or basically the population by a mile radius from the center of each city’s downtown. Since city boundaries come in all different sizes, this is a good way to compare urban populations. "

Keep in mind that the data ignores city boundaries. Once you hit the 20 mile circle you're getting into places like Cedar Springs. Also this measurement of density can be a bit tricky when  when you look at a place like Milwaukee that is next to a big lake.  Or Detroit which has Windsor on the other side of the border that the Census doesn't count.

[GRDadof3]

2 hours ago, Gorath said:

It's measured from Grand Rapids City Hall. 

Quote from the All Columbus Data website, "One of the more interesting things the Census measures is the population from “City Hall”, or basically the population by a mile radius from the center of each city’s downtown. Since city boundaries come in all different sizes, this is a good way to compare urban populations. "

Keep in mind that the data ignores city boundaries. Once you hit the 20 mile circle you're getting into places like Cedar Springs. Also this measurement of density can be a bit tricky when  when you look at a place like Milwaukee that is next to a big lake.  Or Detroit which has Windsor on the other side of the border that the Census doesn't count.

So slide my circle over a block to the Northeast. 

I think it's great BECAUSE it ignores city boundaries, since no two cities in the country have boundaries that were set up in the same way. It's just a study in urban density going out from the core.

You are correct that cities along a large body of water are at a disadvantage. 

[Sparty97]

I believe in on the home values.  I remember looking at rental properties even in 2000 and it was easy to find homes for $30k to $40k that now would be easily 3x to 4x those values.

Sorry.  When I say "moving back..." I meant that people (from wherever) are finding downtown GR as an appealing place to live after so many decades of people moving away and not specifically saying that people are giving up their suburban homes for downtown condos (although I do know a few).   There are more younger people not heading to Chicago/SE MI after college and instead finding a spot here.  Cool trend!  It will good to see the numbers in 2020.

 

[GRDadof3]

The GR MSA posted more gains in 2016, up to 1.047 from 1.038 Million with another net domestic migration gain of +1129 in 2016's estimate. 

Thanks mjlo for the tip. 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

Kent County, the MSA's largest, rose to 642,000, Ottawa to 282,000, around a 1% gain for both in a year's time:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

 

[Pattmost20]

GR's CSA added just over 10,000 between 2015 and 2016, now up to 1.443 million from 1.432 million. 

[GRDadof3]

9 hours ago, Pattmost20 said:

GR's CSA added just over 10,000 between 2015 and 2016, now up to 1.443 million from 1.432 million. 

You and your CSA. Nobody in Muskegon thinks they're part of Grand Rapids, no way no how. 

[MJLO]

10 minutes ago, GRDadof3 said:

You and your CSA. Nobody in Muskegon thinks they're part of Grand Rapids, no way no how. 

Well neither do people in Holland and Grand Haven for that matter.  After working out there for several years i'm convinced people from western Ottawa County need weeks to prepare for the 6 day expidition to Grand Rapids.  Which they must make the journey at least once in their lifetime.