Population Growth

[RegalTDP]

On 4/22/2022 at 8:07 AM, GRDadof3 said:

I've heard that the weather is the same year-round, every day. And that the Pacific is freezing cold year-round as well (which is why Navy Seals train there). Doesn't sound like heaven to me (not that I like our weather in February - April). 

It actually does rain sometimes in California, in Winter and Spring.  Having lived in both SD and LA, I agree SD's climate is better.  Less smoggy and the ocean breeze carries farther. Downtown SD > Downtown LA too.

California water is cold b/c ocean currents circulate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, so Pacific currents hit the West Coast from the Arctic, whereas the Atlantic currents come up to the East Coast from the Tropics.  But, I don't think the Pacific is any colder than Lake Michigan.

I'm going to re-up my old postings in the "GR's Best Assets" thread to reiterate what it's like to come back to Michigan after living out west.  I have to admit since posting this though, I find myself getting less and less tolerant of cold weather like I used to.  I think it's an age thing.

[GRDadof3]

3 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

It actually does rain sometimes in California, in Winter and Spring.  Having lived in both SD and LA, I agree SD's climate is better.  Less smoggy and the ocean breeze carries farther. Downtown SD > Downtown LA too.

California water is cold b/c ocean currents circulate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, so Pacific currents hit the West Coast from the Arctic, whereas the Atlantic currents come up to the East Coast from the Tropics.  But, I don't think the Pacific is any colder than Lake Michigan.

I'm going to re-up my old postings in the "GR's Best Assets" thread to reiterate what it's like to come back to Michigan after living out west.  I have to admit since posting this though, I find myself getting less and less tolerant of cold weather like I used to.  I think it's an age thing.

I didn't suggest that the Pacific is colder than Lake Michigan, but if someone is describing "heaven" than that would not be it. I too find it harder and harder every year to tolerate cold weather, but the summers and Fall are great here. Hence: snowbirding. But I wouldn't pick anywhere in California for the warm portion. Cool place to visit, rough place to live. I've met so many people in real estate who moved from California that I've definitely lost count. 

[walker]

This pseudo news article on Microsoft Edge caught my eye.  It's nothing more than a listicle of metro areas of where people are moving to Grand Rapids from.  In typical listicle format. it's a countdown by metro area with a separate page with a little background information for each entry.  Despite it essentially being clickbait, I think it is probably reasonably accurate information culled from census data.

stacker.com: metros sending most people to grand rapids

And here is sort of the reverse:

stacker.com: metros where people from grand rapids are getting new jobs

   

[GR8scott]

12 hours ago, walker said:

This pseudo news article on Microsoft Edge caught my eye.  It's nothing more than a listicle of metro areas of where people are moving to Grand Rapids from.  In typical listicle format. it's a countdown by metro area with a separate page with a little background information for each entry.  Despite it essentially being clickbait, I think it is probably reasonably accurate information culled from census data.

stacker.com: metros sending most people to grand rapids

And here is sort of the reverse:

stacker.com: metros where people from grand rapids are getting new jobs

   

The job one is basically cities with close proximity, plus FL, TX, and AZ...Looking at the net migration is very interesting considering how many more people move from Houston, Boston, DC, Atlanta, LA,  Albany, even Nashville and then the ones that moved from out of GR to Muskegon, AA, Minneapolis are all somewhat surprising to me. 

[Khorasaurus1]

1 hour ago, GR8scott said:

The job one is basically cities with close proximity, plus FL, TX, and AZ...Looking at the net migration is very interesting considering how many more people move from Houston, Boston, DC, Atlanta, LA,  Albany, even Nashville and then the ones that moved from out of GR to Muskegon, AA, Minneapolis are all somewhat surprising to me. 

Albany sent 178 people to GR and received 0 in return, which is funny. Though I personally know someone who moved from Holland to Albany, but Holland's not in the GR metro, right? Just the Combined Statistical Area?

[RegalTDP]

18 hours ago, Khorasaurus1 said:

Albany sent 178 people to GR and received 0 in return, which is funny. Though I personally know someone who moved from Holland to Albany, but Holland's not in the GR metro, right? Just the Combined Statistical Area?

All of Ottawa County is in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA. The CSA adds Muskegon and Allegan counties.

So, your friend lived in the MSA if they were on the Ottawa side of Holland, and CSA if they were on the Allegan side. 

Edited June 1, 2022 by RegalTDP

[walker]

The Detroit News published an article about the census bureau's annual population estimate.  It says Michigan experienced its first population decline  in a decade.  As one would expect, most of the decline is in the southeast part of the state.  However, buried lower in the article it say Grand Rapids declined by more than a thousand.  I assume this means the city of Grand Rapids rather than the MSI since the accompanying interactive map shows both Kent and Ottawa counties gaining population.  Article contains some talking head speculation and not a whole lot of context or details though, so I don't know what to make of this other than we live in confusing times:

DETROIT NEWS: Michigan population declines for first time in a decade; experts urge action

[GRDadof3]

13 hours ago, walker said:

The Detroit News published an article about the census bureau's annual population estimate.  It says Michigan experienced its first population decline  in a decade.  As one would expect, most of the decline is in the southeast part of the state.  However, buried lower in the article it say Grand Rapids declined by more than a thousand.  I assume this means the city of Grand Rapids rather than the MSI since the accompanying interactive map shows both Kent and Ottawa counties gaining population.  Article contains some talking head speculation and not a whole lot of context or details though, so I don't know what to make of this other than we live in confusing times:

DETROIT NEWS: Michigan population declines for first time in a decade; experts urge action

Kent County gained, but the city of GR must have shrunk a bit. I saw an article that said 17 states shrank in population. A lot of that number was covid. 

Looks like Grand Rapids went from 198,173 in 2020 to 197,416 in 2021. 

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html

Kent County gained 6 people.  658.040 in 2020 to 658,046 in 2021.

[Guest]

On 7/2/2022 at 8:43 AM, GRDadof3 said:

Kent County gained, but the city of GR must have shrunk a bit. I saw an article that said 17 states shrank in population. A lot of that number was covid. 

Looks like Grand Rapids went from 198,173 in 2020 to 197,416 in 2021. 

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html

Kent County gained 6 people.  658.040 in 2020 to 658,046 in 2021.

Those numbers just don't seem right to me with all the development in the city and county.  I'm guessing they're basing these off the 2020 numbers, which were way undercounted.

Even if it is COVID related, Kent county had over 1300 deaths and Detroit had over 3300, yet their population only decreased by about 1500.

[whitemice]

On 7/4/2022 at 11:10 AM, Floyd_Z said:

Those numbers just don't seem right to me with all the development in the city and county

With the continuous decline of household size - it is down to something approaching 1.1 - more housing is required to host the same population.  So much of our housing is, at least contextually, obsolete [oversized]; a significant component of the housing shorting is housing stock mismatch [too many large (& thus expensive) units].

Also a drop of 243 in The City count is within the range of statistical noise.  I view that as no-change.   no-change makes sense given the housing shortage (again, partly due to declining household size).  By leaving us with effectively the same land-use policies as we had in 2010 the City Commission has hung out a "We Are Full" sign.  There is visible development in a few neighborhoods, yet by overall count there isn't very much development.

[MJLO]

On 7/4/2022 at 11:10 AM, Floyd_Z said:

Those numbers just don't seem right to me with all the development in the city and county.  I'm guessing they're basing these off the 2020 numbers, which were way undercounted.

Even if it is COVID related, Kent county had over 1300 deaths and Detroit had over 3300, yet their population only decreased by about 1500.

I think you're missing a much bigger factor in your impressions here.  These numbers are from July 2020 to July 2021 which is at the height of covid, and a huge work force mode shift to remote.   It is the time frame about 4 months into the covid shutdown where the population was fully starting to react.  I think they are very much accurate.   This also coincides with a bump in population for the rural areas which traditionally have been stagnant for the last few decades.  I think what this clearly shows is some folks that went remote shifted to the rural areas.   At the same time Grand Rapids like every other city of relative size was dealing with a fair amount of civil unrest.  I think this further incentivized some folks to want to leave the core. This is why you see a microscopic decline in the core city, while the metro area as a whole still gained(albeit at the slowest rate in years).  

This happened across the country, not just in Michigan.  Even cities like Houston and Dallas posted small declines for the first time in their histories from last years estimates.  So when you see these numbers be careful not to view them as a microcosm in Grand Rapids.  They are part of a much larger national trend that effected even the traditional rapid growth metro areas.   From the numbers I looked at Grand Rapids performed right around average for a core city.   What can't be determined yet is whether this represents a new cultural trend that will continue.  Or potentially represents a short lived hiccup brought on by the events of 2020,  followed by a return to trends prior.  I think it will take a few more years of estimates to say for sure. 

[Khorasaurus1]

1 hour ago, MJLO said:

 What can't be determined yet is whether this represents a new cultural trend that will continue.  Or potentially represents a short lived hiccup brought on by the events of 2020,  followed by a return to trends prior.  I think it will take a few more years of estimates to say for sure. 

Anecdotally, I have a co-worker who lived (with their three person household) at their cottage in Charlevoix basically from Spring 2020 to Fall 2021, before moving back to their house in Oakland County. 

But I do think there will be a broader trend towards places with lower cost of living and natural beauty and away from crowded and expensive major cities. But once people move to those destinations, there will definitely be a cohort that chooses urban living. It just might be in Spokane, Boise, Portland (Maine), Burlington (Vermont), or even Grand Rapids, rather than Chicago, LA, Dallas, or New York. 

[MJLO]

4 minutes ago, Khorasaurus1 said:

Anecdotally, I have a co-worker who lived (with their three person household) at their cottage in Charlevoix basically from Spring 2020 to Fall 2021, before moving back to their house in Oakland County. 

But I do think there will be a broader trend towards places with lower cost of living and natural beauty and away from crowded and expensive major cities. But once people move to those destinations, there will definitely be a cohort that chooses urban living. It just might be in Spokane, Boise, Portland (Maine), Burlington (Vermont), or even Grand Rapids, rather than Chicago, LA, Dallas, or New York. 

Did your friend officially change their residence?  Or did the state of Michigan still consider Oakland County as their primary residence?   If the latter I think they would still be counted as Oakland county residents.  
 

My parents official residence is in Ada, but they have spent the last two years pretty much full time at their house on torch lake.  They are still considered part of Ada’s population.  I think for estimates sake someone has to change their official residence on their tax returns. 

[Khorasaurus1]

4 minutes ago, MJLO said:

Did your friend officially change their residence?  Or did the state of Michigan still consider Oakland County as their primary residence?   If the latter I think they would still be counted as Oakland county residents.  
 

My parents official residence is in Ada, but they have spent the last two years pretty much full time at their house on torch lake.  They are still considered part of Ada’s population.  I think for estimates sake someone has to change their official residence on their tax returns. 

The Census forms (including the annual American Community Survey) ask you literally where you live on a given date, don't they? Certainly the decennial census is a count of where people were living on April 1, 2020. I don't think it has anything to do with tax returns, driver's licenses, voter registration, etc. It's what people choose to put on their response to the survey.

[MJLO]

26 minutes ago, Khorasaurus1 said:

The Census forms (including the annual American Community Survey) ask you literally where you live on a given date, don't they? Certainly the decennial census is a count of where people were living on April 1, 2020. I don't think it has anything to do with tax returns, driver's licenses, voter registration, etc. It's what people choose to put on their response to the survey.

It gets more complicated when considering primary vs secondary residence. 

[egrguy]

I know this is anecdotal so it works against numbers based evidence but I still keep hearing about new kids in my children's school moving from out of state to MI. Curious to see how the trends play out.

[GRDadof3]

On 7/6/2022 at 6:59 AM, whitemice said:

With the continuous decline of household size - it is down to something approaching 1.1 - more housing is required to host the same population.  So much of our housing is, at least contextually, obsolete [oversized]; a significant component of the housing shorting is housing stock mismatch [too many large (& thus expensive) units].

Also a drop of 243 in The City count is within the range of statistical noise.  I view that as no-change.   no-change makes sense given the housing shortage (again, partly due to declining household size).  By leaving us with effectively the same land-use policies as we had in 2010 the City Commission has hung out a "We Are Full" sign.  There is visible development in a few neighborhoods, yet by overall count there isn't very much development.

Yes, I think I saw a stat once that said that 35 - 40% of households in Grand Rapids are 1 person households (think widows primarily but not exclusively). Which matches the national average.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/242022/number-of-single-person-households-in-the-us/

So yes, building growth does not equal population growth.  A lot of new housing is combining households (divorced and remarried and similar multi-family situations). The divorce rate went up 35+% during the pandemic, so housing pressure has been building when population is not going up. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/21/covid-has-put-pressures-and-strains-on-relationships.html

[GRDadof3]

20 hours ago, MJLO said:

Did your friend officially change their residence?  Or did the state of Michigan still consider Oakland County as their primary residence?   If the latter I think they would still be counted as Oakland county residents.  
 

My parents official residence is in Ada, but they have spent the last two years pretty much full time at their house on torch lake.  They are still considered part of Ada’s population.  I think for estimates sake someone has to change their official residence on their tax returns. 

Hey, my wife's family has a place on Torch Lake. Small world. 

[MJLO]

So county population estimates came out yesterday and I did my typical analysis for Michigan.  Whatever models they are using over at the census bureau are a bit chaotic compared to historical releases.  They revised Ingham County (Lansing) down 12k people last year, but said it gained 12k people this year so whatever they did was a statistical bounce resulting in a zero net gain, but they are still showing Ingham County with a 5% gain year over year.   The casual observer would look at that data and wonder what the heck is going on in the Lansing area that it's growth is so big last year.  In reality it's probably an issue calculating student population with MSU.  

Outside of that overall trends are remaining consistent so there is some value in the numbers. There's a continued shift away from cities, especially in the I-75 corridor.  The counties in the northern LP are showing the strongest growth rates, even higher than the Grand Rapids area which has lead the state for the last several decades.   The counties in the norther LP and UP have been suffering attrition for decades.  This shows a pretty big cultural shift away from urban areas that started right around covid.  At this point I am expecting to see those counties continue to tick up.  

The area around Grand Rapids continues to grow as well.  However at the slowest rates since about 2007.  Kent County in particular is barely growing at all according to the estimates.  Last year's initial estimates showed Kent Co. gaining only 6 people.   It was eventually revised up to more than 1000+.   Again this year they are initially estimating Kent to have gained less than 100 new residents.   I do expect this to be revised up again.  There is however  a bigger trend in that the periphery counties have been gaining the lions share of the residents for the metro area.  This really started around 2018-19 when the housing crunch in the area hit critical mass.  

My question to the development nerds is what is going on in Kent Co??   Is it that anti-growth?   I know there's quite a bit of apartments being built, but my impression is that the single family housing starts are almost exclusively happening outside of Kent Co.   Based on the continued economic momentum and shift to more recession resistant industries, Kent Co/W. Michigan as a whole should still be growing at about 1% a year.  This would be in line with peers.  In fairness since Covid tradtional logic doesn't really apply.   Other areas with healthy economies are seeing a slowing in overall rates as well.    I have had the suspicion for a while that the lack of available housing inventory is suppressing the areas growth, and turning away talent that is otherwise valuable for the economy at large.  Why does is it seem so hard for the Grand Rapids area to attract builders to build large developments at a scale that would allow for growth?  I'm open to my impression being wrong, it just seems like the market isn't reacting to the demand from afar.  Can anyone give some insight into this?   

 

 

[MJLO]

Here are the numbers for just the GR Metro.  Keep in mind these numbers are just the initial estimates release. They will get revised up or down based on whatever it is they do over there.  Most likely they will be revised up.  Kent Counties numbers in particular are conspicuously low.  It could actually be that household size in the county is shrinking, combined with the housing crunch, AND people shifting away from cities are suppressing growth in the core county. I think they are artificially low for even that.  

As you can see over the last 2 years all of the counties surrounding Kent are growing at faster rates.  In some cases larger raw numbers.  Both Newaygo and Barry counties are commuter counties in to Kent, they don't have a population cluster big enough to be a statistical area on their own.   They are both just under the 25% commuting threshold and therefore omitted from any statistical area.  2023 is a realignment year for metro areas, I do expect one or both of them to be added back in to the overall statistical area.  They are both growing at a rate that suggests their commuting ties to Kent Co. are getting stronger. 

 I don't think Mecosta Co. is growing as fast as the numbers suggest.  I think that's a student population bounce due to the college (similar to what I think is happening in Ingham county).

In any case the numbers show that 90% of population growth in the area has been pushed OUT of Kent County and into the commuter counties.  I am curious to know if this is due to anti growth policies in Kent or if other less tangible factors are at play. 

[cstonesparty]

2 hours ago, MJLO said:

Here are the numbers for just the GR Metro.  Keep in mind these numbers are just the initial estimates release. They will get revised up or down based on whatever it is they do over there.  Most likely they will be revised up.  Kent Counties numbers in particular are conspicuously low.  It could actually be that household size in the county is shrinking, combined with the housing crunch, AND people shifting away from cities are suppressing growth in the core county. I think they are artificially low for even that.  

As you can see over the last 2 years all of the counties surrounding Kent are growing at faster rates.  In some cases larger raw numbers.  Both Newaygo and Barry counties are commuter counties in to Kent, they don't have a population cluster big enough to be a statistical area on their own.   They are both just under the 25% commuting threshold and therefore omitted from any statistical area.  2023 is a realignment year for metro areas, I do expect one or both of them to be added back in to the overall statistical area.  They are both growing at a rate that suggests their commuting ties to Kent Co. are getting stronger. 

 I don't think Mecosta Co. is growing as fast as the numbers suggest.  I think that's a student population bounce due to the college (similar to what I think is happening in Ingham county).

In any case the numbers show that 90% of population growth in the area has been pushed OUT of Kent County and into the commuter counties.  I am curious to know if this is due to anti growth policies in Kent or if other less tangible factors are at play. 

Honest question: at these growth rates, why is there such a problem with housing?  

[Prankster]

31 minutes ago, cstonesparty said:

Honest question: at these growth rates, why is there such a problem with housing?  

One theory is that the size of the average household is shrinking. Under that premise, the same amount of people would need more places to live. 

[MJLO]

1 hour ago, cstonesparty said:

Honest question: at these growth rates, why is there such a problem with housing?  

Well I think it's largely because of housing that these slower growth rates are happening to begin with.  The area probably needs another 3000-5000  units a year built(or more to catch up with demand).   Most of the apartment units are filled with single person households and there's very little new housing stock being built in the urbanized portions so folks are buying houses being built further and further out.    A lot of people being recruited to, or considering the area passing on it because they don't want to deal with the housing crunch.  

[arcturus]

Do the numbers include non-residents?  I own a home in GR but moved my residency out of state.

[GRLaker]

Pretty wild that Michigan continues to shrink despite a stable economy and a climate that is trending toward Michigan being a refuge state. I mean, I would love to live in a warmer state, but the climate situation of the south becoming increasingly intolerable isn’t just some far off theory; we’re already starting to see it play out. For that reason alone, I’ve decided to stay. Maybe the average American doesn’t have that type of foresight though.