Population Growth

[Jonesey]

I find it very hard to believe Kent County only gained 83 people over the past two years.  There are still a lot of people moving here and housing prices are rising yet again.  How many thousands of housing units were added over those two years?  I get it that household size is shrinking, but just look at the Grand Rapids reddit, there's a "I'm moving to GR soon" almost every other day.  Sure, people are leaving, but I feel like more are moving in.

[Khorasaurus1]

The other factor in all of this is birth and death rates. The death rate is down from its peak pre-covid vaccine, but the birth rate is very sluggish.

Anecdotally, my wife and I had a baby in January and the maternity ward at Butterworth was at maybe 30% of capacity when we were there.

That's not GR or Michigan specific, though. The birth rate is down nationwide.

[egrguy]

On 4/1/2023 at 2:36 PM, GRLaker said:

Pretty wild that Michigan continues to shrink despite a stable economy and a climate that is trending toward Michigan being a refuge state. I mean, I would love to live in a warmer state, but the climate situation of the south becoming increasingly intolerable isn’t just some far off theory; we’re already starting to see it play out. For that reason alone, I’ve decided to stay. Maybe the average American doesn’t have that type of foresight though. 

Anecdotally, I've heard from several people that I'd not ever think of returning to Michigan starting to plan a return due to wildfires and it effectively forcing them indoors due to poor air quality.

https://www.woodtv.com/news/kent-county/lawsuit-pushes-forward-gaines-township-neighborhood-development/

However, metro GR probably just needs more of these types of developments to go through to have a lasting impact on population growth.

[MJLO]

9 hours ago, egrguy said:

Anecdotally, I've heard from several people that I'd not ever think of returning to Michigan starting to plan a return due to wildfires and it effectively forcing them indoors due to poor air quality.

https://www.woodtv.com/news/kent-county/lawsuit-pushes-forward-gaines-township-neighborhood-development/

However, metro GR probably just needs more of these types of developments to go through to have a lasting impact on population growth.

Agreed ^   

Places like Alpine township will take any mass scale development to the supreme court before they allow any growth.  I think a lot of the periphery communities in Kent County are like this which is contributing to the severity of the housing crunch. 

[RiversideGR]

On 4/2/2023 at 12:30 AM, Khorasaurus1 said:

The other factor in all of this is birth and death rates. The death rate is down from its peak pre-covid vaccine, but the birth rate is very sluggish.

Anecdotally, my wife and I had a baby in January and the maternity ward at Butterworth was at maybe 30% of capacity when we were there.

That's not GR or Michigan specific, though. The birth rate is down nationwide.

 It's true. More and more adults are choosing not to have children. I used to think I wanted kids, but we have been very happy with the DINK (technically DINKWAD) lifestyle.

1 in 5 adults choosing to be "childfree," MSU study finds (michiganradio.org)

More childless U.S. adults now say they don’t plan to ever have kids| Pew Research Center

[arcturus]

2 hours ago, MJLO said:

I think a lot of the periphery communities in Kent County are like this which is contributing to the severity of the housing crunch. 

Which adds to litigation costs which leaves less for the construction budget forcing contractors to cut corners, the opposite of what communities want.  Ironic.

[cstonesparty]

On 4/4/2023 at 8:01 AM, MJLO said:

Agreed ^   

Places like Alpine township will take any mass scale development to the supreme court before they allow any growth.  I think a lot of the periphery communities in Kent County are like this which is contributing to the severity of the housing crunch. 

heard recently from an insider that the leadership of JTB relishes battles like this, and are determined to have their way with their suburban neighborhood designs.  Thus their stuff in places like Rockford and upcoming in Alpine Twp that push hard on the envelopes of size and density to cram as big of a suburban neighborhood through as they possibly can...

[joeDowntown]

36 minutes ago, cstonesparty said:

heard recently from an insider that the leadership of JTB relishes battles like this, and are determined to have their way with their suburban neighborhood designs.  Thus their stuff in places like Rockford and upcoming in Alpine Twp that push hard on the envelopes of size and density to cram as big of a suburban neighborhood through as they possibly can...

Good. Never thought I’d say that but I’m very pro suburban development right now (any housing, anywhere). We need it and I think townships are a huge reason why we have housing shortages with their ridiculous 1/2 or 1 acre requirements for lots. 

Joe

[cstonesparty]

5 minutes ago, joeDowntown said:

Good. Never thought I’d say that but I’m very pro suburban development right now (any housing, anywhere). We need it and I think townships are a huge reason why we have housing shortages with their ridiculous 1/2 or 1 acre requirements for lots. 

Joe

you should look at JTB's most recent submission on the Alpine Twp web site.  Basically a threat to default to a by-right plan that would probably be pretty popular to folks on this site...  fascinating manuever.  Wilder Crossings_Revised Submittal.2023.03.03.pdf 

[casman]

22 hours ago, cstonesparty said:

you should look at JTB's most recent submission on the Alpine Twp web site.  Basically a threat to default to a by-right plan that would probably be pretty popular to folks on this site...  fascinating manuever.  Wilder Crossings_Revised Submittal.2023.03.03.pdf 

It's unfortunate and often ugly, but property owners have some 'rights' that allow them to make gross suburbia like that by-right plan (not to say the PUD is much more or less gross)... my guess is that developers bid on property based on the 'by-right' rules, and because housing is stretched so thinly in the area, if it weren't this developer it would be another developer building a plan similar to the parallel plan in that packet.

Developers have to build things people can afford to survive. Alpine Township and other townships write by-right rules, and those rules set the price developers can pay for land. A developer can't both (1) outbid other developers and (2) build less units / be less efficient at the same time. Sure it would be great if a dev could come in and overpay for the land AND reduce density, but those developers are the ones who end up pricing themselves out of the market.

If someone buys land zoned Low Density Residential, and proposes a large-lot development that could be approved in Agricultural zoned land, they just decided to do a stupid project. Why pay double for the land when you could do large lots somewhere else nearby for a lower per acre cost?

Zoning, density restrictions, and NIMBY slow down approvals so the market is almost always behind. That creates a very hostile development environment where (1) only big, greedy, nasty developers with deep pockets can survive and (2) makes every piece of land 100% likely to be built to the absolute maximum.

Having said that, I think the parallel plan idea wasn't shady or shifty or hostile or anything like that. I think the developer is showing what HAS TO BE BUILT based on the purchase price of the land.

Because the land is already zoned LDR, it looks like it's not a hollow threat. It looks like the dev is saying 'we can be creative and make this a really nice, thoughtful development' if the twp approves the PUD. It's also saying 'we really don't want to build it like this LDR plan, but this is the plan our competition bid the land up to based on underlying rules, so if we can't do something creative we will have to do something like this other plan'.

Anyway, I think that it's often lost on [everybody] that the developer that gets the land had to outbid a bunch of other developers, and all those bids are based on the rules laid-out by each municipality. Because of this, projects have to be either 100% boring and repetitive, or pretty much boring and repetitive with a little twist.

It would be interesting to see Municipalities and residents agree to some kind of tax/fund to develop public land based on public input and with public dollars. Maybe 200+ people could agree to something if they got 100% of the say in the matter...

....Then again, maybe it's just not possible to make everyone happy.

[Matchetes]

Interesting graphic. West Michigan is an island of blue in a sea of orange along with other rust belt standouts Columbus, Indianapolis, and Madison. The growth in the south, particularly Florida and Texas, is just incredible.

[Jonesey]

9 hours ago, Matchetes said:

Interesting graphic. West Michigan is an island of blue in a sea of orange along with other rust belt standouts Columbus, Indianapolis, and Madison. The growth in the south, particularly Florida and Texas, is just incredible.

I get the feeling that GR may be the next Columbus, Nashville, Raleigh, etc.  There are still a lot of people moving here from across the country and word is starting to catch on.  It wouldn't be the best as far as housing prices go unless we see some boom in new development, but it would be great for the growth of the metro and city

[MJLO]

2023 MSA delineations were released Friday.  Barry County was added back into GR's MSA.  It was removed(erroneously in my opinion) in the 2018 release and Ionia was added in.  Now GR's MSA is made up of Kent, Ottawa, Barry, Montcalm, and Ionia Counties.  I have to think with so much commuter growth happening in Newaygo and Allegan counties it's only a matter of time before they are added back into the metro.   

This officially bumps the metro population to 1,157,752. Though it does not change Grand Rapids overall ranking with other MSAs as peer metros such as Birmingham and Fresno also had counties added to them.  The metro is within 4,000 residents of over taking Buffalo and Hartford so we may see GR re-enter the top 50 metros in the next estimate year.  No official numbers updates yet. 

 

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/OMB-Bulletin-23-01.pdf

[cstonesparty]

really interesting how divergent views are on how to grow our community…  I put this in this category because of the heading on this first article.

https://www.wmpolicyforum.com/news/west-michigan-policy-forum-calls-for-action-to-grow-michigans-population/

Interestingly, this view also came out this week (slightly different focus):

https://www.crainsgrandrapids.com/news/economic-development/report-warns-low-state-funding-levels-curb-michigans-competitiveness/

[GR8scott]

On 7/24/2023 at 7:39 AM, MJLO said:

2023 MSA delineations were released Friday.  Barry County was added back into GR's MSA.  It was removed(erroneously in my opinion) in the 2018 release and Ionia was added in.  Now GR's MSA is made up of Kent, Ottawa, Barry, Montcalm, and Ionia Counties.  I have to think with so much commuter growth happening in Newaygo and Allegan counties it's only a matter of time before they are added back into the metro.   

This officially bumps the metro population to 1,157,752. Though it does not change Grand Rapids overall ranking with other MSAs as peer metros such as Birmingham and Fresno also had counties added to them.  The metro is within 4,000 residents of over taking Buffalo and Hartford so we may see GR re-enter the top 50 metros in the next estimate year.  No official numbers updates yet. 

 

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/OMB-Bulletin-23-01.pdf

even enough connections with Muskegon Co that seems like it could/should be a part of MSA and would be a significant bump

[arcturus]

3 year population change shows Ottawa County gaining roughly 2.5x more than Kent County's 2,862.   Is this called a population boom adding urgency to the 'housing shortage' concerns for Kent?  

https://www.mlive.com/data/2024/03/michigans-population-growth-is-heading-north-see-how-your-county-is-changing.html

[MJLO]

A big part of the reason Ottawa is out gaining Kent is because it’s far less restrictive to new development.  The housing shortage has been choking growth in Kent County for a good 5 years now. 

[arcturus]

Kent County stagnant growth is a by-product of typical suburban growth.  GR metro happens to be next to desirable suburban areas with residents willing to make the commute as seen in the population trends.  So long as this continues, the effect of restrictive laws is overstated.  Suburban attraction will poach .. and continue to poach .. population growth in Kent county. 

[MJLO]

Disagree.  That argument works well in places like Louisville where the core county is built out.  Kent County IS largely suburban, and there are plenty of desirable suburban areas within it. This isn’t just a “typical” doughnut affect.   As core counties go Kent is nowhere near close to being built out.  Certainly not to the point that it’s forcing growth in peripheral counties. 
 

The Grand Rapids area has less new construction permits compared to its similarly sized peers that have stagnant or even declining populations.   This makes no sense from a market based perspective.  Rural, anti-growth townships, especially north of the city are suppressing new developments.  This is adding fuel to the already tight housing situation.      All other metrics point to regional growth that should be stronger, and not just in Kent county. 

[Zads]

https://www.crainsgrandrapids.com/news/economic-development/west-michigans-population-growth-is-hampered-by-housing-shortages-leaders-say/

"West Michigan’s population growth far outpaced the state’s slight increase of 0.04%, or 3,980 people, last year.

In 2023, Kent County’s population grew by 2,434 people (0.37%), Ottawa County grew by 2,454 people (0.82%), Allegan County grew by 649 people (0.54%), Muskegon County grew by 1,025 (0.58%), and Kalamazoo County grew by 1,323 (0.51%)."

"A 2023 Kent County Housing Needs Assessment published in February 2023 showed 34,699 more housing units will be needed in the county by 2027. A Muskegon County study found that the county’s housing gap will grow to 9,184 residential units between 2022 and 2027. A 2021 Ottawa County study found the county would need about 4,385 additional rental units and 11,346 for-sale units by 2025."

[MJLO]

Thanks for posting that!  Definitely backs up the point I was making. 

[whitemice]

22 hours ago, MJLO said:

A big part of the reason Ottawa is out gaining Kent is because it’s far less restrictive to new development.  The housing shortage has been choking growth in Kent County for a good 5 years now. 

This.  Effectively a static housing unit count, with declining household size [a nation wide trend] is a significant downward pressure on population counts.

21 hours ago, arcturus said:

Kent County stagnant growth is a by-product of typical suburban growth.

No,  Kent County is strangling itself though [very misguided] regulatory capture in the housing market.  Kent county's low growth number is attributable to the howling void which is local political leadership; a group of people psychologically incapable of urgency, pathologically afraid of confrontation.

Grand Rapids has extremely low vacancy, if housing was built, it would fill, and population would go up.  The scant amount of housing built fills very rapidly.

[arcturus]

2 hours ago, whitemice said:

This.  Effectively a static housing unit count, with declining household size [a nation wide trend] is a significant downward pressure on population counts.

No,  Kent County is strangling itself though [very misguided] regulatory capture in the housing market.  Kent county's low growth number is attributable to the howling void which is local political leadership; a group of people psychologically incapable of urgency, pathologically afraid of confrontation.

Grand Rapids has extremely low vacancy, if housing was built, it would fill, and population would go up.  The scant amount of housing built fills very rapidly.

Wrong.  Where has this pent up 'flood' been hiding over the past 5 years due to this dam called regulation?  Are they now living in Lansing or maybe Newago waiting for the regulatory environment to ease?  Or are they now rooted partially in Ottawa County?  What reports factor the massive exodus of residents moving to sun belt states?  Why is the Ottawa county data being conveniently being ignored .. at Kent County's expense .. with the track record that's been established?  All I see is contrived excuses following a narrative which ignores reality starting with the population trends.

Your hyperbole concerning political leadership attitudes is way off base.    

 

[arcturus]

4 hours ago, MJLO said:

Thanks for posting that!  Definitely backs up the point I was making. 

If doesn't back up anything.  It reads like a political agenda stacked with statistics designed to look authoritative with tenuous assumptions and a 'should be' narrative.   Has anyone considered the simple fact that if there's no housing to satisfy the immigration influx they go elsewhere? 

[GR8scott]

I would be nice if charter townships went away and cities like GR, Kentwood could actually expand or in some places actually incorporate like Comstock Park or Byron Center to better represent their true sizes and to "contain" and drive housing growth