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Sorry it took me so long to get through these numbers.  I get so lost in the weeds and details when I start analyzing this stuff I become my own worst enemy.  Only going to focus on growth since the c

OK so I've got some numbers compiled let's hope I haven't mistyped anything but here goes.  EDIT: sorry everyone it looks like the website shifted away from embedded photos at some point.  [img]h

So they released the 2019 city/township estimates Thursday and I've finally gotten around to doing my annual break down of numbers and the municipality level.  Some people have really cool hobbies, I

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3 hours ago, egrguy said:

I always enjoy your population posts. I'm surprised a land locked city like East can jam in an extra 1000+ people. Were there that many empty houses?

To answer that question no, it’s not empty houses haha.  

My hypothesis on EGR is a couple things:

1. There is some infill happening.  Mostly in the form of existing structures being replaced with ones that creat more density.  It would be cool to see some of the more ambitious plans we’ve seen over the years come to fruition.

2.  I think EGR is seeing a “changing of the guards”  of sorts.   There were a few decades where the city was stagnant or experiencing small decline.  I highly doubt this had anything to do with any kind of abandonment.  Instead what you were seeing was maturing families with thinning household sizes as children grew up and moved out.  I am basing this on speculation only, but I would put money on it that quite a few households in EGR have reached retirement age, and downsizing to smaller properties, or heading elsewhere.  Moving in their place is a younger family and household size has started increasing again.  I base this in part by my observations when I drive through EGR and see perfectly nice homes being torn down and replaced with even nicer homes.

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On 5/26/2019 at 2:16 PM, MJLO said:

2.  I think EGR is seeing a “changing of the guards”  of sorts.   There were a few decades where the city was stagnant or experiencing small decline.  I highly doubt this had anything to do with any kind of abandonment.  Instead what you were seeing was maturing families with thinning household sizes as children grew up and moved out.  I am basing this on speculation only, but I would put money on it that quite a few households in EGR have reached retirement age, and downsizing to smaller properties, or heading elsewhere.  Moving in their place is a younger family and household size has started increasing again.  I base this in part by my observations when I drive through EGR and see perfectly nice homes being torn down and replaced with even nicer homes.

That's what's happening in my neighborhood in Garfield Park (not EGR, obviously). Within a few blocks, I can count a couple dozen houses that have turned over from empty nesters to young families over the past decade. I'd guess that in EGR, an increase in population density per housing sqft (I wonder if there's a way to track this?) is responsible for more gains than raw additions of housing sqft. My in-laws' neighborhood out in Cascade is the opposite: lots of empty nesters still residing in the 4+bdr homes they raised their families in. Funny how neighborhoods tend to go in cycles.

It would be telling to look at EGR schools enrollment trends.

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28 minutes ago, organsnyder said:

That's what's happening in my neighborhood in Garfield Park (not EGR, obviously). Within a few blocks, I can count a couple dozen houses that have turned over from empty nesters to young families over the past decade. I'd guess that in EGR, an increase in population density per housing sqft (I wonder if there's a way to track this?) is responsible for more gains than raw additions of housing sqft. My in-laws' neighborhood out in Cascade is the opposite: lots of empty nesters still residing in the 4+bdr homes they raised their families in. Funny how neighborhoods tend to go in cycles.

It would be telling to look at EGR schools enrollment trends.

Our child will be in kindergarten in the fall, was advised that on orientation night that enrollment is up. I had wondered about plateauing and declining K-12 in West MI that we'd eventually see an uptick with the population growth, maybe we're finally starting to see evidence of that?

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3 minutes ago, egrguy said:

I had wondered about plateauing and declining K-12 in West MI that we'd eventually see an uptick with the population growth, maybe we're finally starting to see evidence of that?

I would expect it to be flat or teppid.  Declining K-12 is happening on a national scale because people are having less children than they were in general.   I think East Grand Rapids is a special case in that it benefits from being the only walkable streetcar-esque suburb in the Grand Rapids area.   It doesn't really have similar competition.  It is particularly attractive to the upper-middle income demographic moving here from bigger markets.   The best schools, the best neighborhoods, the "most educated" population in Michigan, replicates  an area that costs 2-3 times as much in a place like Chicago.  EGR's built environment  can only allow for so many people.  I do think it will hit a saturation point for growth in the next 5-10 years, unless bigger infill projects start happening around Gaslight village.  Not sure that current market conditions create the demand for it, but that's not my area of expertise. 

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On 5/25/2019 at 6:05 AM, MJLO said:

 

Ok here we go. Starting with Grand Rapids inner ring based on the highlighted portions of this map.  I always like to look at the inner ring, because when added up, that square of combined areas becomes a city of almost 400k and represents GR's true core(Next time anyone tries to tell you that Fort Wayne has more people than GR)I added Plainfield township to this as well.  A good chunk of Plainfield is part of the "Rockford region", but the bulk of its development is heaviest where it borders GR. 

LOL.  Fort Wayne continuously annexes land whenever there is new development, and have already done so several times this decade.  GR has only annexed land once in the past 50 years, which was the Knapp's Corner strip in 1992 (probably didn't add much in population but was a great move for all the commercial retail that's now there). It's great that GR is getting a lot for its 44 square miles, but speaks to the disadvantage that we have compared to other cities that are freer to annex land... But it's worth saying that if the population estimates are correct, a gain of over 12,000 in under a decade is pretty good for a city that's probably never going to expand its boundaries again.

2 hours ago, organsnyder said:

That's what's happening in my neighborhood in Garfield Park (not EGR, obviously). Within a few blocks, I can count a couple dozen houses that have turned over from empty nesters to young families over the past decade. I'd guess that in EGR, an increase in population density per housing sqft (I wonder if there's a way to track this?) is responsible for more gains than raw additions of housing sqft. My in-laws' neighborhood out in Cascade is the opposite: lots of empty nesters still residing in the 4+bdr homes they raised their families in. Funny how neighborhoods tend to go in cycles.

It would be telling to look at EGR schools enrollment trends.

Kentwood too... My parents sold their house to a young couple with a baby last year.  It was their first house and they were overjoyed.  My parents were the last empty nestors on the block; every other house had turned over to a younger family in the past decade.

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7 hours ago, MJLO said:

"Top 75 Most Populated Cities in Michigan".

Noticeably absent is  Warren, the states 3rd largest city.   They also list when the city peaked in Population after each graph.  They state Lansing is currently at it's peak population (it peaked at 131,000 in 1970), and that Kalamazoo peaked in 1990 at 81,000(It peaked in 1970 at 85,000).  Those are just the errors I caught.   I can imagine the person who wrote this is not far out of college, and has absolutely zero interest or understanding of historical population trends (most people have lives and do fun things like drink, instead of making spreadsheets in their spare time).  It just feels like Mlive is getting sloppier and sloppier, possibly even using us for some news stories.

Julie Mack apparently covers the listicle beat for Mlive.  She has around one a week.  Content or context is not important or seemingly accuracy for that matter either.  The whole point is to take advantage of people's  irresistible human urge to click on a list article and thus increase clicks to help sell advertising.

WORD OF THE DAY: Listicle

EDIT: The way people can’t resist lists reminds me of this clip of Roger Rabbit not being able to resist the “shave and a haircut” knock:

LINK: rabbit can't resist

Edited by walker
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4 hours ago, MJLO said:

I'm not even 40 yet and I'm complaining about how the local media "used to be better".  At this rate I'll be throwing rocks at little kids to get them off my lawn by 45.

Here is your latest population hack-job from Mlive.

https://expo.mlive.com/news/g66l-2019/06/592a798dce8992/michigans-75-mostpopulated-cities-and-townships-in-2018.html

"Top 75 Most Populated Cities in Michigan".

Noticeably absent is  Warren, the states 3rd largest city.   They also list when the city peaked in Population after each graph.  They state Lansing is currently at it's peak population (it peaked at 131,000 in 1970), and that Kalamazoo peaked in 1990 at 81,000(It peaked in 1970 at 85,000).  Those are just the errors I caught.   I can imagine the person who wrote this is not far out of college, and has absolutely zero interest or understanding of historical population trends (most people have lives and do fun things like drink, instead of making spreadsheets in their spare time).  It just feels like Mlive is getting sloppier and sloppier, possibly even using us for some news stories.  I also know traditional media of the now (especially in a market this size) has a very hard time attracting tenured talent.  It just pains me that they continue to put out error ridden stuff like this.  I would offer to write these things for them, but you all suffer enough through my disastrous grammatical stylings and abuse of commas.  No need to bring that to the masses :D

Looks like they added in Warren, but the peak populations are still wrong.

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19 minutes ago, Pattmost20 said:

Looks like they added in Warren, but the peak populations are still wrong.

Yeah I saw that haha,  I’m assuming there are people who work there who realized it too since they also cover the Detroit area.

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On 6/4/2019 at 10:36 AM, MJLO said:

I'm not even 40 yet and I'm complaining about how the local media "used to be better". 

I don't think this is an age thing. I've seen all sorts of people talking about it nation-wide. The media industry is struggling. Newer skilled journalists use youtube and other sites to just run independent outlets while people pay less and less attention to traditional media, leaving traditional media to largely scrape the bottom of the barrel and rely on cheap, low-effort gimmick just to stay afloat.

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  • 9 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...

So 2019 county and metro estimates were released Thursday, per usual I break the whole state down by regions(self defined) results below. 

Starting off with metro areas:

49708211757_7fe4686f73_c.jpg

State estimates for 19' were released in December and it showed a slowing of growth all over the country, as well as declines in many states in the north/northeast.  Michigan still posted 2,785 positive growth, but that is the slowest trend in about 7 years.  So I was curious to know where in the state was impacting the trend for the metro release. The Detroit area posted a -2,400 person decline.  This is the first time the metro has posted a decline since 2011. It is still showing anemic gains for the decade, and I predict It will show positive when the census is released.  Even with the declines Detroit is still fairing better than many of it's counterparts.  The current national trend is a massive slow down in immigration.  New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles(first time in history) have all started posting metropolitan population losses over the last couple of years.  Rustbelt poster children Cleveland and Pittsburgh are still losing residents at a rate more than twice as fast as Detroit itself.  To illustrate how wide spread this slow down is, economic growth juggernaut San Jose California was estimated to have lost more than 3,100 residents in the estimate year.  Bay area counter part San Francisco only gained about 5500 residents.   Even with the declines, Detroit still appears to be fairing better than average when compared to some of it's counterparts.  Though to be clear major metro's in the south and mountain west are still posting very strong growth numbers, but this is has been the case for 60+ years.  Those metro's have always had much heavier domestic inflow than legacy cities. They are not nearly as susceptible to international migration patterns. 

The Grand Rapids area continues to be the strongest gainer within the state.  The areas around Grand Rapids account for more than 90% of the states growth as a whole the over last 9 years. It gained about 3 times as many residents last year, compared to the state as a whole.  That said Grand Rapids experienced its slowest growth year of the decade.  I think this was to be expected as the growth cycle in the automotive industry hit a maturation point around 2017.  Automotive is the largest single component in the manufacturing portion of the Grand Rapids economy. It's resurgence in the first half of the decade was a significant growth driver.  As automotive leveled off so did some of the growth momentum in GR.   At the same time over the last decade GR's eds/meds, and corporate sector(Meijer, SpartaNash, Gordon Foods, Amway, Perrigo ect.) have surged.  These sectors are far more resilient to economic cycles, and are crucial for future sustainability.   The Medical Mile continues to grow, and with it recruitment for highly educated, skilled positions will continue.  The majority of the population gain within the city of Grand Rapids itself is coming from college educated, upper middle income segment.  It is a microcosm of the region as a whole.  Even if a full downturn in manufacturing occurs, I find it unlikely for the Grand Rapids area to enter a population decline anytime soon.  Over the last 20 years the area has rapidly transitioned away from being almost entirely manufacturing dependent.  This of course is barring any major shocks to society as a whole, which is not something that I can't predict. 

Other points of note the Lansing metro continues it's slow/steady growth.  Its estimates for the last year haven't slowed.  The metro areas in the thumb (Flint/Saginaw) are still declining, but still at much slower rates than during the great recession.  One surprise was the year over year drop for Ann Arbor.  Ann Arbor is generally regarded as the tech, education golden child for the state.  It has been one of the brighter spots for Michigan population trends over the last 9 years.  So I was curious when it posted an -1800 drop.  When I look further into the numbers I see that growth momentum for Ann Arbor peaked in 2015-16 and has slowed every subsequent year, and now declining.  I can only speculate the cause.  It could be related to the slow down in immigration.  I know the University of Michigan is a destination university for international students.  Though I am not aware of a specific drop in enrollment.  The R&D/tech sector in Ann Arbor tends to attract specific types of immigrants as well.  It would be interesting to learn the factor surrounding this. 

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47 minutes ago, MJLO said:

The Grand Rapids area continues to be the strongest gainer within the state.  The areas around Grand Rapids account for more than 90% of the states growth as a whole the over last 9 years. It gained about 3 times as many residents last year, compared to the state as a whole. 

Wow!  Very impressive!  People in the U.S. (mostly young-erish folks) aren't choosing the huge cities like before and instead opting for "medium" size cities like GR.   I think GR has done a great job diversifying it's major industries and attracting a lot of people from out of state or even the east side of the state.

The thumb area continues to take a hit.  19,000+ loss for Flint.  Crazy how Flint proper used to be the second largest city in the state with almost 200k people and now is barely 7th.  I'm sure the water crisis excellerated that quite a bit.  I would be interested to know where those 19,000 people went.  Detroit?  GR?  Lansing?  AA?  Out of State?

I would think we're maybe a year or two out from Detroit proper seeing and increase in population.  We'll see though, if there's a recession the east side could see another hit.

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23 minutes ago, Floyd_Z said:

The thumb area continues to take a hit.  19,000+ loss for Flint.  Crazy how Flint proper used to be the second largest city in the state with almost 200k people and now is barely 7th.  I'm sure the water crisis excellerated that quite a bit.  I would be interested to know where those 19,000 people went.  

This is a common misconception about Flint.  The water crisis occurred within specific neighborhoods of the city itself, it wasn't even city-wide.  It had virtually no impact on the suburban communities surrounding Flint.  About 65% of those losses occurred between 2010, and 2014 prior to the water crisis, the decline rate for Genesee county slowed quite a bit after 2015 which was when the water crisis was at its peak.  I was expecting to see an acceleration within the city during the crisis but the estimates numbers don't reflect that either.  See the growth patterns for Flint metro below: 

49708404826_c6c7f3afe2.jpg

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Wow, thank you so much @MJLO .  So interesting to see what's going on in the state.

For anyone curious, I threw together a table of where the metro ranks nationally.  GR moved up one rank to #51.  For the first time, we've officially bypassed Rochester, NY! #SuckItRochester

This is a table of our "peer group" (MSAs ranging 0.9 - 1.3 million i.e. roughly 200k up and down from GR).

1089261249_ScreenShot2020-03-28at9_22_19AM.thumb.png.258e9fbcdefa370c47afdf96a98544a1.png

Some thoughts:

-Is this the first year they've identified the principal cities as "Grand Rapids-Kentwood"?  I could've sworn as recently as last year it was still "Grand Rapids-Wyoming."  That's surprising to me, but I guess it would indicate the Southeast metro is helping grow the region's economy.  For those who are curious what the criteria is for naming the principal cities in a metro area, see here. When there's a second principal city, it means there's a high worker population there compared to residents.

-If these estimates are accurate and the trends continue, GR will easily pass Birmingham and Buffalo in the next decade.  Hartford is unlikely.

-Tucson, Fresno, and Tulsa have been chasing GR for years but our rate of growth this past decade has been slightly higher.  Need to keep pace to avoid getting bypassed ourselves.

-BUT: This is a census year that's taking place in the middle of a pandemic so who knows what the 2020 numbers will be.  We were burned pretty badly in 2010.  Remember to fill out the census, people.

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39 minutes ago, RegalTDP said:

Some thoughts:

-Is this the first year they've identified the principal cities as "Grand Rapids-Kentwood"?  I could've sworn as recently as last year it was still "Grand Rapids-Wyoming."  That's surprising to me, but I guess it would indicate the Southeast metro is helping grow the region's economy.  For those who are curious what the criteria is for naming the principal cities in a metro area, see here. When there's a second principal city, it means there's a high worker population there compared to residents.

-If these estimates are accurate and the trends continue, GR will easily pass Birmingham and Buffalo in the next decade.  Hartford is unlikely.

-Tucson, Fresno, and Tulsa have been chasing GR for years but our rate of growth this past decade has been slightly higher.  Need to keep pace to avoid getting bypassed ourselves.

-BUT: This is a census year that's taking place in the middle of a pandemic so who knows what the 2020 numbers will be.  We were burned pretty badly in 2010.  Remember to fill out the census, people.

- So they switched it to Grand Rapids-Kentwood after the 2018 metro realignment.   The only possibility that I can figure for why they dropped Wyoming and added Kentwood is due to jobs?   Kentwood has a smaller population than  Wyoming, but I'm pretty sure it's a much bigger employment center with everything out by Steelcase and the airport.  So if they go off commuting statistics to calculate it more metro commuters would be going to Kentwood.  It's hard to say, they change their criteria all the damn time. 

-GR could pass both Buffalo and Birmingham.  Though if you look at Birmingham's numbers prior to this years release it had over 1,150,000 residents.  They did another weird off year realignment this year and took away one of B-ham's commuter counties from it's total.  If they add it back again GR could be chasing it for a bit longer. 

- I do not think you will see the affects of the coronavirus reflected in the census.  They have been sending out the materials for it since mid Feb and the tabulation cycle closes out on July 1st.   That's too short of a time frame to have a real measurable impact.  If anything you would see the affects of it in the 2021 estimates release.  Though even then it's hard to predict how the virus will impact trends since the event is having the same impact on cities in both high, and low growth regions.  I could speculate some outcomes but not sure If I'd even want to. 

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4 hours ago, MJLO said:

-GR could pass both Buffalo and Birmingham.  Though if you look at Birmingham's numbers prior to this years release it had over 1,150,000 residents.  They did another weird off year realignment this year and took away one of B-ham's commuter counties from it's total.  If they add it back again GR could be chasing it for a bit longer. 

On that note, hopefully we won't see Ottawa County get realigned into its own MSA again.  That would ruin everything.  I am 100% for more suburban development in Eastern Ottawa County that brings commuters into Kent County.

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6 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

Wow, thank you so much @MJLO .  So interesting to see what's going on in the state.

For anyone curious, I threw together a table of where the metro ranks nationally.  GR moved up one rank to #51.  For the first time, we've officially bypassed Rochester, NY! #SuckItRochester

This is a table of our "peer group" (MSAs ranging 0.9 - 1.3 million i.e. roughly 200k up and down from GR).

1089261249_ScreenShot2020-03-28at9_22_19AM.thumb.png.258e9fbcdefa370c47afdf96a98544a1.png

Some thoughts:

-Is this the first year they've identified the principal cities as "Grand Rapids-Kentwood"?  I could've sworn as recently as last year it was still "Grand Rapids-Wyoming."  That's surprising to me, but I guess it would indicate the Southeast metro is helping grow the region's economy.  For those who are curious what the criteria is for naming the principal cities in a metro area, see here. When there's a second principal city, it means there's a high worker population there compared to residents.

-If these estimates are accurate and the trends continue, GR will easily pass Birmingham and Buffalo in the next decade.  Hartford is unlikely.

-Tucson, Fresno, and Tulsa have been chasing GR for years but our rate of growth this past decade has been slightly higher.  Need to keep pace to avoid getting bypassed ourselves.

-BUT: This is a census year that's taking place in the middle of a pandemic so who knows what the 2020 numbers will be.  We were burned pretty badly in 2010.  Remember to fill out the census, people.

There's actually been a decent amount of Rochester-to-Grand Rapids migration the past decade.  I personally know about a dozen or so.  There's one college/university in the area that's responsible for the majority.  

Now getting the Western New Yorkers to root for the Lions or Tigers is a whole different beast.  Those sports allegiances die hard...

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2 hours ago, cutlervillegr said:

There's actually been a decent amount of Rochester-to-Grand Rapids migration the past decade.  I personally know about a dozen or so.  There's one college/university in the area that's responsible for the majority.  

Now getting the Western New Yorkers to root for the Lions or Tigers is a whole different beast.  Those sports allegiances die hard...

Wow that's interesting.  What school are you referring to?  In GR or in Rochester?

2 hours ago, cutlervillegr said:

Now getting the Western New Yorkers to root for the Lions or Tigers is a whole different beast.  Those sports allegiances die hard...

I know right... And please stop lecturing me about how great Wegmans is :silly:

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6 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

On that note, hopefully we won't see Ottawa County get realigned into its own MSA again.  That would ruin everything.  I am 100% for more suburban development in Eastern Ottawa County that brings commuters into Kent County.

I don't think Ottawa County is likely to be realigned in it's own MSA.  The more than half of it's population growth is on the eastern side that borders GR.  It's also had a thinning out of its major employment base with Yan Feng vacating what was left of the Prince legacy corporate structure last year.  I'm basing this off of educated instinct and anything can happen, but indicators point toward the two counties becoming more intertwined, not less. 

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On 3/28/2020 at 5:41 PM, RegalTDP said:

On that note, hopefully we won't see Ottawa County get realigned into its own MSA again.  That would ruin everything.  I am 100% for more suburban development in Eastern Ottawa County that brings commuters into Kent County.

It's definitely happening in Georgetown Township. Areas are high development are as follows:

Jenison - Cedar Valley Associates is expanding in Cedar Lake East and will start developing the new lakes north of Fillmore in the next couple years. Cedar Lake West is also seeing a lot of development of high-end homes.

Hudsonville - Eastbrook has grown Lowing Woods into a massive development. Bosgraaf and JTB are building quite a bit in Hagar Park West, Alward Estates, and Highpoint. Eastbrook has also grown its development quite a bit in Jamestown.

Grandville (Zip) - Summerset has seen a great deal of growth in the last few years. They'll likely max out their land allotment in the next two years.

 

Where Ottawa County is lacking is north of the Grand River. There are some nice homes with a lot of land, but there is nothing in the line of high density development. I feel like that has the potential to be the next boom area as Georgetown starts to max out on land.

Edited by GRLaker
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2 hours ago, GRLaker said:

It's definitely happening in Georgetown Township. Areas are high development are as follows:

Jenison - Cedar Valley Associates is expanding in Cedar Lake East and will start developing the new lakes north of Fillmore in the next couple years. Cedar Lake West is also seeing a lot of development of high-end homes.

Hudsonville - Eastbrook has grown Lowing Woods into a massive development. Bosgraaf and JTB are building quite a bit in Hagar Park West, Alward Estates, and Highpoint. Eastbrook has also grown its development quite a bit in Jamestown.

Grandville (Zip) - Summerset has seen a great deal of growth in the last few years. They'll likely max out their land allotment in the next two years.

 

Where Ottawa County is lacking is north of the Grand River. There are some nice homes with a lot of land, but there is nothing in the line of high density development. I feel like that has the potential to be the next boom area as Georgetown starts to max out on land.

Jamestown is the next big boom area. I know there's a big 300+ home community in the works near Greenley and 24th, and Koetje just broke ground on a development at Riley and 16th, just East of a JTB/Interra development with a new phase in.

Alward Estates in Hudsonville just opened a new phase, with another coming after that. 

Hidden Shores West in Allendale is also going to keep going all the way to Pierce, which would make it a mile wide/long development from Lake Michigan Drive and 78th. 

 

 

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