Population Growth

[GR8scott]

Let’s hope Covid19 doesn’t screw up census counts and Could be really close to whether or not Michigan is officially over 10 million people for the 2020 census, that could have  bigImplications 

[MJLO]

48 minutes ago, GR8scott said:

Let’s hope Covid19 doesn’t screw up census counts and Could be really close to whether or not Michigan is officially over 10 million people for the 2020 census, that could have  bigImplications 

The cycle count for the census started over a month ago and ends on July 1.  It's very unlikely that this virus will produce any measurable impact on migration patterns between now and then, it's just too soon.  Especially since the effect is omni-geographic if you will.  If certain areas get hit harder with economic impacts and that has an effect migration patterns, it will likely be 6-9 months out if there's any type of measurable shift.  If there are impacts they won't be measurable until the 2021 cycle ends. 

[GR8scott]

18 hours ago, MJLO said:

The cycle count for the census started over a month ago and ends on July 1.  It's very unlikely that this virus will produce any measurable impact on migration patterns between now and then, it's just too soon.  Especially since the effect is omni-geographic if you will.  If certain areas get hit harder with economic impacts and that has an effect migration patterns, it will likely be 6-9 months out if there's any type of measurable shift.  If there are impacts they won't be measurable until the 2021 cycle ends. 

Just depends where the number stands as of January or so, I’ve seen an estimate that was already over 10 million by about 45k and another that was at about 9.985million so the factors between January and July could make the difference. immigration in has probably stoped, I can’t see many people moving jnto the state in the next few months because of a job and if anything people in Michigan will want to leave if they can. Plus the death toll is in the hundreds now and could be several thousand by July.

[GRDadof3]

1 hour ago, GR8scott said:

Just depends where the number stands as of January or so, I’ve seen an estimate that was already over 10 million by about 45k and another that was at about 9.985million so the factors between January and July could make the difference. immigration in has probably stoped, I can’t see many people moving jnto the state in the next few months because of a job and if anything people in Michigan will want to leave if they can. Plus the death toll is in the hundreds now and could be several thousand by July.

I've read it will be over 3000 dead by the end of the month.  Our peak load of Covid-19 severe cases is projected to hit in about 8 days, according to the University of Washington. 

I wouldn't look at this data if you have anxiety issues. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR2lrqakgjR71CwiegpBe7GOLZH8DzKLF1HQgdhEIDqFRACy1Fix2YsQg0w

[MJLO]

2 hours ago, GR8scott said:

Just depends where the number stands as of January or so, I’ve seen an estimate that was already over 10 million by about 45k and another that was at about 9.985million so the factors between January and July could make the difference. immigration in has probably stoped, I can’t see many people moving jnto the state in the next few months because of a job and if anything people in Michigan will want to leave if they can. Plus the death toll is in the hundreds now and could be several thousand by July.

This assumes those people can find work elsewhere, which is unlikely since this is affecting service industries equally across the country.  Even more so in many of the traditional "move to" hot spots.   My guess is that this will limit mobility and domestic migration quite a bit.  It will be months before people would be relocating due to economic circumstances. The question would then become where would be better? 

[arcturus]

Overall the population estimates are a win considering the headwinds of baby boomer retirement flight.

BTW here's another C-19 site breaking it down by county.  The disproportionate count coming out of the Detroit region is startling compared to the rest of the state.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#stat

If I were a Windsor, Ontario resident I would be throwing roses in the Detroit river thanking the water gods for their separation from the US.

[RegalTDP]

2 hours ago, MJLO said:

This assumes those people can find work elsewhere, which is unlikely since this is affecting service industries equally across the country.  Even more so in many of the traditional "move to" hot spots.   My guess is that this will limit mobility and domestic migration quite a bit.  It will be months before people would be relocating due to economic circumstances. The question would then become where would be better? 

When I first brought it up I was more concerned about how the pandemic would affect the process of counting itself than about migration.  They've already delayed plans to deploy the census takers already, and internet access at libraries and other public sites are limited due to social distancing.  They've delayed the due date of the final count to August 14 (which is good), but who knows if that will stick - easy to imagine delaying again.  College students home from campus might be confused about where they are supposed to be counted (the Census guidance is clear but will everyone  read it?  I don't know).

I'm not saying the count will definitely get screwed up.  To the contrary, so far I think the Census Bureau has adjusted to circumstances appropriately, and in general I regard them as one of our more competent federal agencies.  What I am saying is we don't know what the next months will bring; this pandemic is outside of anyone's control; it could eventually lead to a compressed timeline for census workers to do their jobs; it could make people less responsive; all of which could affect the count.  I mean, this is true for every city and state, but no one wants a count that's out of whack.  Again, not saying it'll definitely happen.  I'm not alarmed, but there's enough concern for me that it's worth bringing up.

[MJLO]

3 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

When I first brought it up I was more concerned about how the pandemic would affect the process of counting itself than about migration.  They've already delayed plans to deploy the census takers already, and internet access at libraries and other public sites are limited due to social distancing.  They've delayed the due date of the final count to August 14 (which is good), but who knows if that will stick - easy to imagine delaying again.  College students home from campus might be confused about where they are supposed to be counted (the Census guidance is clear but will everyone  read it?  I don't know).

I'm not saying the count will definitely get screwed up.  To the contrary, so far I think the Census Bureau has adjusted to circumstances appropriately, and in general I regard them as one of our more competent federal agencies.  What I am saying is we don't know what the next months will bring; this pandemic is outside of anyone's control; it could eventually lead to a compressed timeline for census workers to do their jobs; it could make people less responsive; all of which could affect the count.  I mean, this is true for every city and state, but no one wants a count that's out of whack.  Again, not saying it'll definitely happen.  I'm not alarmed, but there's enough concern for me that it's worth bringing up.

Understood.   More the point I was trying to make was this event is unprecedented and we can't possibly predict how it will impact migration patterns.  The narrative of peoples statements have been economy bad = people leave Michigan.  Historically that's true.  But never at any point has the economy been bad simultaneously everywhere.  So simply defaulting to that logic doesn't factor that in.  Where will they go?  The traditional sunbelt refuges are getting hit equally as hard.  

[GRLaker]

13 hours ago, MJLO said:

Understood.   More the point I was trying to make was this event is unprecedented and we can't possibly predict how it will impact migration patterns.  The narrative of peoples statements have been economy bad = people leave Michigan.  Historically that's true.  But never at any point has the economy been bad simultaneously everywhere.  So simply defaulting to that logic doesn't factor that in.  Where will they go?  The traditional sunbelt refuges are getting hit equally as hard.  

If not worse. Florida is just now shutting down and I believe other southeastern states have still yet to do so. While we're looking at a peak in early May, they have to be looking at a peak of July as a result of their fiddle farting around with half measures until the problem exploded. Their economies will suffer more as a result. Meanwhile, California and Washington (once the epicenters of the early infections) seem to have peaked already because they locked down early. Their economies will likely rebound the quickest. 

[wingbert]

On 4/2/2020 at 10:32 AM, GRLaker said:

If not worse. Florida is just now shutting down and I believe other southeastern states have still yet to do so. While we're looking at a peak in early May, they have to be looking at a peak of July as a result of their fiddle farting around with half measures until the problem exploded. Their economies will suffer more as a result. Meanwhile, California and Washington (once the epicenters of the early infections) seem to have peaked already because they locked down early. Their economies will likely rebound the quickest. 

+1 for use of the phrase “fiddle farting”.  Both apropos in this case and a throwback to one of my old granddad’s favorite expressions.  Kudos!

[egrguy]

Per the Western Michigan Research Center Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota lead the country as the only 3 states with census response rates above 50%.

[Pattmost20]

11 hours ago, egrguy said:

Per the Western Michigan Research Center Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota lead the country as the only 3 states with census response rates above 50%.

Looks like Virginia joined the over 50% group. But man is that sad.

 

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

[thebeerqueer]

23 hours ago, Pattmost20 said:

Looks like Virginia joined the over 50% group. But man is that sad.

 

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Very cool response rate tool. You can drill all the way down to census tracts. Interesting to see the response rates across the city. 

[MJLO]

So they released the 2019 city/township estimates Thursday and I've finally gotten around to doing my annual break down of numbers and the municipality level.  Some people have really cool hobbies, I analyze data from the census bureau lol.  There are a lot of words below.  You can stop now if you don't have the time, or don't need help falling asleep

Starting with cities from around the state.  This years release again shows a softening of trends.  The release of the county and state data showed a significant drop in growth rates and this is reflected in the cities as expected.  Especially in Southeast Michigan.  A lot of the larger suburban cities surrounding Detroit have shifted to a year over year decline. though most are still positive for the decade, and will show growth for the census.  Cities around Grand Rapids were noticeable slower, and Wyoming again posted a small decline.   Kalamazoo also posted a decline.   A big surprise was Ann Arbor which posted a year over year decline of almost 1500 residents.  

A couple of things to note about this.

1. This softening of trends is happening nationwide.  Some cities that have long been noted for continual population gains, posted surprising declines in the year over year numbers.  Whatever is happening at the census bureau, their estimates have gotten steadily more bearish across the board since around 2017.   Again this timeline does coincide with a political shift, though I see no evidence beyond anecdotal logic to say they are related.  I can only speculate. 

2. As they are getting close to the census, the speculation from other population nerds is that they are slowing down estimates in an attempt to not have a repeat of 2009, when city estimates were way off from actual census numbers.  The problem I have with this is that the 2009 projections were done at the height of the great recession.  Its full impact probably wasn't felt on population trends until after the data gathering period had ended.  Those trends also carried into the first couple years of this decade.  If you look at the year over year trends since 2010, almost 80% of the population losses in both Flint, and Detroit occurred prior to 2012.  Since then their numbers have been much less dramatic.  Data was off the most in places like Michigan that were disproportionately affected by the recession.  It also doesn't take into account that they had a different disparity between the 1999 estimates and the 2000 census, when several cities were under counted in the estimates.  This coincides with a period of economic boom coming out of the 1990's. 

So lets take a closer look at what is happening in W. Michigan

Not a big shift between this year and last.  As always I break it down from the inside and work my way out.  The gain/loss numbers you see are for the decade only.  The numbers at the city level fluctuate too much on a year over year basis to really get a solid idea on a trend.  The more broad county and state trends are more stable to make year over year assumptions. 

Starting with Grand Rapids inner ring, the seven communities that form a square around Grand Rapids that if combined would have 400k people in 141 sq miles.  Making it the 48th largest city in the country just behind Tulsa OK.   When I add Plainfield twp immediately to the north population jumps to 434k people in 175sq mi.  Which would make it the 45th largest city in the country behind Virginia beach.  

Next I add the outer ring townships in Kent County.  This would include Rockford, but I calculate the area around Rockford separately.  The areas around Rockford contain about 43k residents, when added with the outer and inner rings contain almost 600,000 people.  Combined they would have a little over 400sq mi.  If it were one city, it would be the 30th largest city in the country.  Though at 400 sq mi it wouldn't feel anywhere near as big as the other cities in that grouping. 

Finally I add the townships on the eastern half of Ottawa county that have continuous development within the Grand Rapids urbanized area.  This grouping represents about a 15 mile radius from downtown GR in all directions (give or take). It resents about 715,000 people, and is estimated to have gained almost 65k residents over the last 9 years.  That accounts for about 70% of the growth in the state as a whole.  

Next up Holland.  The immediately developed area around Holland contains about 116k people.  When I add in the more exurban/rural feeder townships, it gets to almost 130k.  Growth around Holland has slowed a fair amount in the 2nd half of the decade.  I think this is due in part to Johnson Controls divesting in it's business units around 2015, and then the slow attrition of the R&D teams to facilities on the eastern side of the state.  The Holland area is still gaining residents, just at a slower pace than in the 1st half of the decade. 

This year I grouped Grand Haven and Muskegon together.  There really isn't much of a gap between where each one's development starts and end other than the county line.  They really are a tale of two cities.  The four entities that contained the developed areas around Grand Haven contain about 52k people.  I've always felt the need to point this out, since on paper Grand Haven contains 11,000 residents which is misleading for how many people actually live on and around the waterways that define it.   I only used the cities/twps immediately surrounding Muskegon to calculate it's urban population.  I think the developed portion of Muskegon extends further east and north from what I've included, but I'm not nearly as familiar with Muskegon as I am the other areas we are talking about so I didn't want to over inflate.  Muskegon and Grand Haven really are a tale of 2 cities.  The Muskegon cities are no longer gains for the decade, the 2019 estimates were showing a lot of negative in the year over year trends.  Muskegon show's a -1800 person drop in this years numbers.  This has to be an adjustment from previous years, it's disproportionate to the year over year trends for Muskegon which have been more consistent prior.  I suspect the same for Ann Arbor as well.  I would suspect that the Muskegon cities will still be positive for the census.

Other randoms items: 

Often times when we have these discussions there are questions about metro alignment and which counties could be added, or taken away from the metro.  A big question surrounds if Ottawa County could be separated into its own metro again.  At this point I think we can stop speculating/worrying about it.  It's pretty clear that Kent and Ottawa Counties are becoming more linked, not less.  The below chart shows  the growth for Ottawa County separated into east and west sections.  The eastern portion of Ottawa County are the western suburbs of Grand Rapids.  Where as the western portion are the established Lakeshore communities.  As you can see the suburban eastern portion of the county is growing at a significantly faster clip than the western cities.  Combine this with the softening of the Yan Feng presence in Holland, what we should see is a strengthening of the commuting patterns between Kent and Ottawa.

Finally here's a look at the developed areas that make up Traverse City:

Traverse is another city that appears artificially small on paper.  The townships I've included in this chart are the main areas that are grouped around Traverse itself.  Naturally there's going to be some rural population included in this, but not enough to take away from the point.  About 70k people live immediately around Traverse.  It is definitely the largest and most prosperous population center in the northern part of the state.  It's airport is the 4th busiest in Michigan, handling more passengers than both Lansing and Kzoo's airports.  It's useless information, but gives a better idea of what you can actually expect from a region.  

I want to do other areas of the state, but am not familiar enough with where development starts and ends to be confident in assembling data, so if anyone is curious about other places just let me know what areas to include. 

Have a great Tuesday

[RegalTDP]

That was great @MJLO  As always.

For those curious about GR and national rankings, here's where the city stacks up with its current peer group:

Many cities saw the softening trend that MJLO pointed out.  GR overtook Glendale, CA and Salt Lake City this year.  Huntsville and Frisco will likely pass GR (Frisco is one of the fastest growing cities in the US).  A couple other thoughts: (1) Sun Belt suburbs are still growing like mad. Where did Port St. Lucie come from. (2) GR's in a crowded neighborhood - there's about 15 cities hovering close to 200K, five of which are within 1K of GR.  The census this year will no doubt mix up these rankings.

And here's a ranking of the 30 largest Midwestern cities:

Edited May 26, 2020 by RegalTDP

[Pattmost20]

On 5/26/2020 at 11:59 AM, MJLO said:

I think the developed portion of Muskegon extends further east and north from what I've included, but I'm not nearly as familiar with Muskegon as I am the other areas we are talking about so I didn't want to over inflate.

I would say Laketon Township, Dalton Township, and Egelston Township very much consider themselves apart of the Muskegon area. Together they would add over 26k people. The population centers of Laketon and Dalton are effectively extensions of North Muskegon and Egelston is basically an extension of Muskegon Township.

[BLUESCRUBS]

https://www.grmag.com/people-places/grand-rapids-population-grows-almost-3-over-three-years/

[GRDadof3]

I believe the MSA population counts are supposed to be out today for 2020. Although I will say that I can't find the link where I originally saw it a few months ago, lol. 

[MJLO]

3 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

I believe the MSA population counts are supposed to be out today for 2020. Although I will say that I can't find the link where I originally saw it a few months ago, lol. 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

I believe we are looking at a 3pm drop.  Though in my experience rarely are they ever on time lol.

[GRDadof3]

17 hours ago, MJLO said:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

I believe we are looking at a 3pm drop.  Though in my experience rarely are they ever on time lol.

Interestingly the metro only grew by about 5000, to around 1.081 Million. Net domestic migration was a negative number for the second year in a row (more people left than moved here). Might be the lack of housing that's affecting that. Or people left to find work elsewhere who were cut from Covid shutdowns. International immigration was the lowest in over a decade, I imagine also because of Covid.

Population grew because we have so many babies around here, vs deaths. Although deaths were the highest they've been ever, 8639. Covid maybe? 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

[arcturus]

Refresh my memory - is head counting defined as who is living in the state as of April 1, irrespective of their actual residency?

[joeDowntown]

It'd be interesting to see if they are lower across the board (States, cities, etc). This census was a little unusual (to say the least). They kind of moved the goal post, and I think a lot of people were disenfranchised with the whole process. I wonder if the US really grew at it's slowest pace since the depression, or if there was a pretty significant undercount.

Joe

[MJLO]

1 hour ago, GRDadof3 said:

Interestingly the metro only grew by about 5000, to around 1.081 Million. Net domestic migration was a negative number for the second year in a row (more people left than moved here). Might be the lack of housing that's affecting that. Or people left to find work elsewhere who were cut from Covid shutdowns. International immigration was the lowest in over a decade, I imagine also because of Covid.

Population grew because we have so many babies around here, vs deaths. Although deaths were the highest they've been ever, 8639. Covid maybe? 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

Right now there's some dispute about how accurate the numbers are.   The official state numbers for the census were released last week and Michigan was under counted in the estimates by over 110,000.  

Michigan 2020 Estimates:  9,966,555

Michigan 2020  Actual: 10,077,331

There are several other states that were also under counted per the census.  If you remember during the last administration population growth was shown as steadily slowing, or in some cases turning to decline in most places throughout the country.  The speculation is that in addition to slowed migration, that many immigrants already in place kept a pretty low profile because of the rhetoric and policies.  Grand Rapids metro's largest minority group are people of Latino ancestry.   The city of Wyoming which has the largest Mexican population in the area started showing declines in 2018 for the first time ever.   I speculated that we could be seeing an under count at that point.    The numbers released yesterday are from the estimate group.  I believe the official census numbers for metro areas are released in July.  I fully expect the official census numbers to be stronger in GR and statewide due to the undercount.   

I'm apprehensive to post my typical breakdown of numbers until the full census is out.  Though it may be interesting to do a comparison. 

 

 

[GRDadof3]

22 hours ago, MJLO said:

Right now there's some dispute about how accurate the numbers are.   The official state numbers for the census were released last week and Michigan was under counted in the estimates by over 110,000.  

Michigan 2020 Estimates:  9,966,555

Michigan 2020  Actual: 10,077,331

There are several other states that were also under counted per the census.  If you remember during the last administration population growth was shown as steadily slowing, or in some cases turning to decline in most places throughout the country.  The speculation is that in addition to slowed migration, that many immigrants already in place kept a pretty low profile because of the rhetoric and policies.  Grand Rapids metro's largest minority group are people of Latino ancestry.   The city of Wyoming which has the largest Mexican population in the area started showing declines in 2018 for the first time ever.   I speculated that we could be seeing an under count at that point.    The numbers released yesterday are from the estimate group.  I believe the official census numbers for metro areas are released in July.  I fully expect the official census numbers to be stronger in GR and statewide due to the undercount.   

I'm apprehensive to post my typical breakdown of numbers until the full census is out.  Though it may be interesting to do a comparison. 

 

 

Yeah, there's no way that Wyoming is shrinking in population. Hispanic families also tend to have children earlier than their white counterparts and are having more children per household. That alone would drive numbers up. But I can see them being reticent to talk to census people or fill out a census form. With ICE policing the neighborhoods especially. 

[Khorasaurus1]

2 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

Yeah, there's no way that Wyoming is shrinking in population. Hispanic families also tend to have children earlier than their white counterparts and are having more children per household. That alone would drive numbers up. But I can see them being reticent to talk to census people or fill out a census form. With ICE policing the neighborhoods especially. 

I could see this as even more of a problem with the ACS than with the headcount, too. The ACS doesn't have the same follow-up or marketing as the headcount - it's just a form from the government asking questions.