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Population Growth


GRDadof3

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48 minutes ago, GR8scott said:

Let’s hope Covid19 doesn’t screw up census counts and Could be really close to whether or not Michigan is officially over 10 million people for the 2020 census, that could have  bigImplications 

The cycle count for the census started over a month ago and ends on July 1.  It's very unlikely that this virus will produce any measurable impact on migration patterns between now and then, it's just too soon.  Especially since the effect is omni-geographic if you will.  If certain areas get hit harder with economic impacts and that has an effect migration patterns, it will likely be 6-9 months out if there's any type of measurable shift.  If there are impacts they won't be measurable until the 2021 cycle ends. 

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18 hours ago, MJLO said:

The cycle count for the census started over a month ago and ends on July 1.  It's very unlikely that this virus will produce any measurable impact on migration patterns between now and then, it's just too soon.  Especially since the effect is omni-geographic if you will.  If certain areas get hit harder with economic impacts and that has an effect migration patterns, it will likely be 6-9 months out if there's any type of measurable shift.  If there are impacts they won't be measurable until the 2021 cycle ends. 

Just depends where the number stands as of January or so, I’ve seen an estimate that was already over 10 million by about 45k and another that was at about 9.985million so the factors between January and July could make the difference. immigration in has probably stoped, I can’t see many people moving jnto the state in the next few months because of a job and if anything people in Michigan will want to leave if they can. Plus the death toll is in the hundreds now and could be several thousand by July.

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1 hour ago, GR8scott said:

Just depends where the number stands as of January or so, I’ve seen an estimate that was already over 10 million by about 45k and another that was at about 9.985million so the factors between January and July could make the difference. immigration in has probably stoped, I can’t see many people moving jnto the state in the next few months because of a job and if anything people in Michigan will want to leave if they can. Plus the death toll is in the hundreds now and could be several thousand by July.

I've read it will be over 3000 dead by the end of the month.  Our peak load of Covid-19 severe cases is projected to hit in about 8 days, according to the University of Washington. 

I wouldn't look at this data if you have anxiety issues. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR2lrqakgjR71CwiegpBe7GOLZH8DzKLF1HQgdhEIDqFRACy1Fix2YsQg0w

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2 hours ago, GR8scott said:

Just depends where the number stands as of January or so, I’ve seen an estimate that was already over 10 million by about 45k and another that was at about 9.985million so the factors between January and July could make the difference. immigration in has probably stoped, I can’t see many people moving jnto the state in the next few months because of a job and if anything people in Michigan will want to leave if they can. Plus the death toll is in the hundreds now and could be several thousand by July.

This assumes those people can find work elsewhere, which is unlikely since this is affecting service industries equally across the country.  Even more so in many of the traditional "move to" hot spots.   My guess is that this will limit mobility and domestic migration quite a bit.  It will be months before people would be relocating due to economic circumstances. The question would then become where would be better? 

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Overall the population estimates are a win considering the headwinds of baby boomer retirement flight.

BTW here's another C-19 site breaking it down by county.  The disproportionate count coming out of the Detroit region is startling compared to the rest of the state.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/#stat

If I were a Windsor, Ontario resident I would be throwing roses in the Detroit river thanking the water gods for their separation from the US.

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2 hours ago, MJLO said:

This assumes those people can find work elsewhere, which is unlikely since this is affecting service industries equally across the country.  Even more so in many of the traditional "move to" hot spots.   My guess is that this will limit mobility and domestic migration quite a bit.  It will be months before people would be relocating due to economic circumstances. The question would then become where would be better? 

When I first brought it up I was more concerned about how the pandemic would affect the process of counting itself than about migration.  They've already delayed plans to deploy the census takers already, and internet access at libraries and other public sites are limited due to social distancing.  They've delayed the due date of the final count to August 14 (which is good), but who knows if that will stick - easy to imagine delaying again.  College students home from campus might be confused about where they are supposed to be counted (the Census guidance is clear but will everyone  read it?  I don't know).

I'm not saying the count will definitely get screwed up.  To the contrary, so far I think the Census Bureau has adjusted to circumstances appropriately, and in general I regard them as one of our more competent federal agencies.  What I am saying is we don't know what the next months will bring; this pandemic is outside of anyone's control; it could eventually lead to a compressed timeline for census workers to do their jobs; it could make people less responsive; all of which could affect the count.  I mean, this is true for every city and state, but no one wants a count that's out of whack.  Again, not saying it'll definitely happen.  I'm not alarmed, but there's enough concern for me that it's worth bringing up.

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3 hours ago, RegalTDP said:

When I first brought it up I was more concerned about how the pandemic would affect the process of counting itself than about migration.  They've already delayed plans to deploy the census takers already, and internet access at libraries and other public sites are limited due to social distancing.  They've delayed the due date of the final count to August 14 (which is good), but who knows if that will stick - easy to imagine delaying again.  College students home from campus might be confused about where they are supposed to be counted (the Census guidance is clear but will everyone  read it?  I don't know).

I'm not saying the count will definitely get screwed up.  To the contrary, so far I think the Census Bureau has adjusted to circumstances appropriately, and in general I regard them as one of our more competent federal agencies.  What I am saying is we don't know what the next months will bring; this pandemic is outside of anyone's control; it could eventually lead to a compressed timeline for census workers to do their jobs; it could make people less responsive; all of which could affect the count.  I mean, this is true for every city and state, but no one wants a count that's out of whack.  Again, not saying it'll definitely happen.  I'm not alarmed, but there's enough concern for me that it's worth bringing up.

Understood.   More the point I was trying to make was this event is unprecedented and we can't possibly predict how it will impact migration patterns.  The narrative of peoples statements have been economy bad = people leave Michigan.  Historically that's true.  But never at any point has the economy been bad simultaneously everywhere.  So simply defaulting to that logic doesn't factor that in.  Where will they go?  The traditional sunbelt refuges are getting hit equally as hard.  

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13 hours ago, MJLO said:

Understood.   More the point I was trying to make was this event is unprecedented and we can't possibly predict how it will impact migration patterns.  The narrative of peoples statements have been economy bad = people leave Michigan.  Historically that's true.  But never at any point has the economy been bad simultaneously everywhere.  So simply defaulting to that logic doesn't factor that in.  Where will they go?  The traditional sunbelt refuges are getting hit equally as hard.  

If not worse. Florida is just now shutting down and I believe other southeastern states have still yet to do so. While we're looking at a peak in early May, they have to be looking at a peak of July as a result of their fiddle farting around with half measures until the problem exploded. Their economies will suffer more as a result. Meanwhile, California and Washington (once the epicenters of the early infections) seem to have peaked already because they locked down early. Their economies will likely rebound the quickest. 

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On 4/2/2020 at 10:32 AM, GRLaker said:

If not worse. Florida is just now shutting down and I believe other southeastern states have still yet to do so. While we're looking at a peak in early May, they have to be looking at a peak of July as a result of their fiddle farting around with half measures until the problem exploded. Their economies will suffer more as a result. Meanwhile, California and Washington (once the epicenters of the early infections) seem to have peaked already because they locked down early. Their economies will likely rebound the quickest. 

+1 for use of the phrase “fiddle farting”.  Both apropos in this case and a throwback to one of my old granddad’s favorite expressions.  Kudos!

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That was great @MJLO :thumbsup: As always.

For those curious about GR and national rankings, here's where the city stacks up with its current peer group:

301396560_ScreenShot2020-05-26at1_30_43PM.png.3dbe7ee34a938defb0e4a7892ebe8051.png

Many cities saw the softening trend that MJLO pointed out.  GR overtook Glendale, CA and Salt Lake City this year.  Huntsville and Frisco will likely pass GR (Frisco is one of the fastest growing cities in the US).  A couple other thoughts: (1) Sun Belt suburbs are still growing like mad. Where did Port St. Lucie come from. (2) GR's in a crowded neighborhood - there's about 15 cities hovering close to 200K, five of which are within 1K of GR.  The census this year will no doubt mix up these rankings.

And here's a ranking of the 30 largest Midwestern cities:

1601637233_ScreenShot2020-05-26at1_42_24PM.png.b9289093df802c3f0cc34088783e3a76.png

Edited by RegalTDP
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On 5/26/2020 at 11:59 AM, MJLO said:

I think the developed portion of Muskegon extends further east and north from what I've included, but I'm not nearly as familiar with Muskegon as I am the other areas we are talking about so I didn't want to over inflate.

I would say Laketon Township, Dalton Township, and Egelston Township very much consider themselves apart of the Muskegon area. Together they would add over 26k people. The population centers of Laketon and Dalton are effectively extensions of North Muskegon and Egelston is basically an extension of Muskegon Township.

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3 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

I believe the MSA population counts are supposed to be out today for 2020. Although I will say that I can't find the link where I originally saw it a few months ago, lol. 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

I believe we are looking at a 3pm drop.  Though in my experience rarely are they ever on time lol.

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17 hours ago, MJLO said:

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

I believe we are looking at a 3pm drop.  Though in my experience rarely are they ever on time lol.

Interestingly the metro only grew by about 5000, to around 1.081 Million. Net domestic migration was a negative number for the second year in a row (more people left than moved here). Might be the lack of housing that's affecting that. Or people left to find work elsewhere who were cut from Covid shutdowns. International immigration was the lowest in over a decade, I imagine also because of Covid.

Population grew because we have so many babies around here, vs deaths. Although deaths were the highest they've been ever, 8639. Covid maybe? 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

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It'd be interesting to see if they are lower across the board (States, cities, etc). This census was a little unusual (to say the least). They kind of moved the goal post, and I think a lot of people were disenfranchised with the whole process. I wonder if the US really grew at it's slowest pace since the depression, or if there was a pretty significant undercount.

Joe

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22 hours ago, MJLO said:

Right now there's some dispute about how accurate the numbers are.   The official state numbers for the census were released last week and Michigan was under counted in the estimates by over 110,000.  

Michigan 2020 Estimates:  9,966,555

Michigan 2020  Actual: 10,077,331

There are several other states that were also under counted per the census.  If you remember during the last administration population growth was shown as steadily slowing, or in some cases turning to decline in most places throughout the country.  The speculation is that in addition to slowed migration, that many immigrants already in place kept a pretty low profile because of the rhetoric and policies.  Grand Rapids metro's largest minority group are people of Latino ancestry.   The city of Wyoming which has the largest Mexican population in the area started showing declines in 2018 for the first time ever.   I speculated that we could be seeing an under count at that point.    The numbers released yesterday are from the estimate group.  I believe the official census numbers for metro areas are released in July.  I fully expect the official census numbers to be stronger in GR and statewide due to the undercount.   

I'm apprehensive to post my typical breakdown of numbers until the full census is out.  Though it may be interesting to do a comparison. 

 

 

Yeah, there's no way that Wyoming is shrinking in population. Hispanic families also tend to have children earlier than their white counterparts and are having more children per household. That alone would drive numbers up. But I can see them being reticent to talk to census people or fill out a census form. With ICE policing the neighborhoods especially. 

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2 hours ago, GRDadof3 said:

Yeah, there's no way that Wyoming is shrinking in population. Hispanic families also tend to have children earlier than their white counterparts and are having more children per household. That alone would drive numbers up. But I can see them being reticent to talk to census people or fill out a census form. With ICE policing the neighborhoods especially. 

I could see this as even more of a problem with the ACS than with the headcount, too. The ACS doesn't have the same follow-up or marketing as the headcount - it's just a form from the government asking questions. 

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