Norfolk Off-Topic

[virginia pe]

On 1/18/2021 at 10:54 AM, Norfolk757Kid said:

 Oh yeah I understand that it's more complicated than me not wanting a shopping mall downtown (plus all the people the mall employs), but I'm just saying that it's possible that downtown could have rebounded and had its renaissance without the mall as well, just would have happened differently. I think it's significant that most of those high end retailers are not local businesses. 

I have to go with Baobabs on this one.  Looking at it in the context of the 1980s when MacArthur was developed, it was the right call.  Yes, downtown would have developed without the mall, but when?  The mall site was cleared as part of the demolition frenzy of the 1960s.  For over 20 years, it was a vacant 17-acre parking lot.  Yes, there was a street grid, but the streets only served to separate the parking lot in one block from the parking lot on the next.  The city and NRHA tried to interest developers to develop the site, either as one megaproject for the entire 17 acres, or as individual projects.  There was some interest, but nothing ever progressed enough to put a shovel in the ground.  Then Taubmann came to town and said they would build an upscale shopping mall and put those 17 acres back on the tax rolls.  It was hard to argue “downtown will develop on its own without the mall” after 20+years of frustration.

[baobabs727]

On 1/18/2021 at 10:54 AM, Norfolk757Kid said:

 Oh yeah I understand that it's more complicated than me not wanting a shopping mall downtown (plus all the people the mall employs), but I'm just saying that it's possible that downtown could have rebounded and had its renaissance without the mall as well, just would have happened differently. I think it's significant that most of those high end retailers are not local businesses. 

That’s all entirely valid.  And of course we will never know exactly what would’ve/could’ve happened in an alternate reality.  To your credit, you brought up a couple of points which I didn’t mention but did, in fact, consider. All of those jobs created over the past 22 years are one thing. Another issue is the fact that Nordstrom would’ve likely never come—and then maybe not Dillards either—to an open-air format in downtown.  And I don’t think the alternative vision would’ve generated the $260 to $300M dollars in annual sales, nor the attendant property and sales tax revenues, etc.  Certainly, it would’ve been different, looked different, operated differently while attracting a different clientele. Importantly, however, things would’ve developed much, much more slowly… If ever. 

TBH, I have always loved Town Centers. When I was a young boy, my family would drive up to Reston Town Center to spend the weekend around the holidays.  It’s true that we used to go to Tysons on occasion,  as well,  but Reston seemed like something very special to a boy from these parts lol.  It was really one of the first neo-urban TC’s in America. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I wouldn’t be surprised if in about 10- 20 years, MacArthur Center looked radically different than it does today...turned inside-out and oriented in a pedestrian-friendly way on a reconstituted street-grid. No surprise, really.  Supposedly, Pembroke Mall will be going that way eventually, as well. We all know that retail centers go through evolutions, cycles and phases, following along with larger market trends, etc.  And as other proximate power centers get developed and redeveloped,  their neighbor-players in the giant retail game must adapt and reinvent themselves—or face certain death. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by baobabs727

[EJ_LEWIS]

Exactly what happened to Coliseum Mall in Hampton.  The Peninsula Town Center has reinvigorated the whole Hampton Coliseum/Mercury Blvd corridor.  I think McArthur will be remade in a similar fashion. but it will take place very slowly.  Military Highway corridor is just now starting the planning process to convert the mall into a town center.  I believe this project will be completed way before the redevelopment of McArthur Center

Edited January 20, 2021 by EJ_LEWIS

[BFG]

Population question: up until about 40 or 50 years ago, the city had 300,000 people. Of course the great migration to the suburbs of VB and Chesapeake caused a decline, but Norfolk's been in the 240K range for the last decade, even with the growth of downtown.

As far as I know, while several areas were torn down in the 1950s and 60s, it shouldn't have resulted in 60K people leaving. Even being landlocked as a city, is there any way Norfolk could reclaim that number and get back to 300K? I know SPQ and Fort Norfolk are a start, but I just can't wrap my head around such a steep decline not caused by demolition.

[lammius]

Well there’s that and also the average household size (number of people per household) declined too. In 1940 there were 3.67 people per household in the US. In 2010 there were 2.58. Thats a 30% drop in the number of people in an average US household. I’ve seen reports that household size increased during the 2010s for the first time in 160 years (to just over 2.6). 

[baobabs727]

Norfolk will begin installing parking meters along Boush Street to support downtown businesses. 

https://www.pilotonline.com/news/transportation/vp-nw-norfolk-installing-parking-meters-on-boush-street-20210210-5xyzcgzx3za73awjxjnzk3ig6i-story.html

Edited February 11, 2021 by baobabs727

[BFG]

State of the City address scheduled for April 22 at 12 noon. Looking forward to see what Mayor Alexander has planned...usually we get at least one new surprise. 

https://web.hamptonroadschamber.com/events/Norfolk-State-of-the-City-2021-192/registrationsummary?eventsignupids=20628

[Qdeathstar]

Casino update 

[Norf Native]

Casino renderings hopefully

[NFKfloodcaptain]

New local blog to be covering lots of stories including urban development and planning. Also, the merch is great! https://nfkva.com/introducing-nfkva-com/

[BFG]

I'm guessing we'll get more news on the casino and the Military Circle arena developments. Any other ideas? 

-EVMS/ODU/NSU partnership?
-A much-better looking Gateway Tower?
-ORF deciding to move forward on the expansion put on hold by the pandemic?

[zeppelin14]

I think after all of the studies, there will be some mention of light rail.

[BeagleAccountant]

I wasn't sure where to put this so I'm mentioning it here. On the agenda for the May 27th planning commission meeting is the adoption of the "missing middle housing" pattern book.  According to the request for this amendment "The pattern book addresses the form, scale, and type of multifamily housing that is compatible in single family neighborhoods. These house-scale buildings, for both homeowners and renters, provide a broad range of housing types such as duplexes, triplexes, “Norfolk six-packs”, town homes, courtyard apartments, and cottage courts that are naturally affordable."

I found the documentation to be quite interesting as it gives you some insight into the type of residential infill development the city would like to see  and I assume this was done in preparation as the St Paul's redevelopment project moves forward.

http://norfolkcityva.iqm2.com/citizens/FileOpen.aspx?Type=1&ID=1639&Inline=True

 

[EJ_LEWIS]

Took a quick 5 minute video of our walk down Granby St. on Saturday night.  

 

[varider]

First Fridays returns to Downtown tonight. Events like this are great for showcasing all the new changes and developments we’ve seen over the past years and really gives me hope for the future. If you haven’t been downtown in a while, this is an excellent opportunity to see the progress that is being made.

It is very exciting to see the mini apartment boom happening in the area, spreading to Fort Norfolk, NEON, and now even St. Paul’s. 

Going west toward Ft.Norfolk/EVMS looks entirely different as it now has developed its own mini skyline. I imagine this area with proximity to the hospital and medical school and access to downtown and the light rail (still praying for expansion) and the midtown tunnel, the river, colley, Hampton/ odu , etc. has untapped potential and could over the years develop into a very special neighborhood for Norfolk. The Lofts at Front St project is very significant and substantial development and with some infrastructure improvements and a couple more additional projects, hopefully with a little ground floor retail, the neighborhood will show drastic improvement in activity. 
 

Downtown proper is busier and more active as ever. It would be great to see construction start on the Gravity apts in front of the ICON. I’ve never been a fan of ICON and much preferred the office building use there on Main st. , however I look forward to Gravity and think it is the perfect height and size for Waterside and will increase the urban feel of that corridor. With COVID and changes in work patterns, not sure what the future outlook on the office market is, but it would be great to get something built on the gateway site. Also fingers still crossed for the Casino as I would welcome any development by harbor park. That area has been a wide swath of parking for way too long. An urban ballpark district would do wonders for the city and the proximity to the Amtrak and light rail should be enough for a sizeable mixed use development with parking etc for baseball and all of the other uses. With new development in St. Paul and neon, we really could have a much more robust and expansive greater downtown area that extends all the way up to the railroad district in park place through Ghent over to downtown and the ballpark. With bike share and e scooter, Uber, light rail, and other infrastructure improvements, norfolk really has the bones of a great city. Not that I’m biased at all... 
 

Edited August 6, 2021 by varider

[lammius]

Local-level population data from the 2020 Census were released today. 

Norfolk's population dropped 2% to 238,005.  Norfolk is now a distant third in the ranking of VA cities by population.  And Richmond is poised to push it to 4th soon.

The top 10 cities in VA in 2020 are listed below.  % change since 2010 is also provided.  Two cities declined - Norfolk and Hampton.  Portsmouth posted its first population increase since 1960!

• Va Beach: 459,470 (4.9%)
• Chesapeake: 249,422 (12.2%)
• Norfolk: 238,005 (-2.0%) <-largest decline
• Richmond: 226,610 (11.0%)
• Newport News: 186,247 (3.1%)
• Alexandria: 159,467 (13.9%) <-fastest-growing 
• Hampton: 137,148 (-0.2%)
• Roanoke: 100,011 (3.1%)
• Portsmouth: 97,915 (2.5%) <- first INCREASE since 1960
• Suffolk: 94,324 (11.5%)

[BFG]

I'm pretty sure the pandemic threw those numbers off big time because I don't see how Norfolk's downtown grew in population, more apartments went up across the city, but the population declined. They didn't start tearing down Tidewater Gardens until this year, so I can't see that much of a drop for a city that's made so many changes. I would think the population grew at least 2% in reality.

Overall, it looks like the 7 Cities population went up about 5% (1.46M now vs. 1.39M in 2010). That's just the cities; I dunno how many the counties have. As of 2018, the entire metro's population was about 1.73M.

[lammius]

Similar growth rate for the MSA and CSA.

MSA 2020 population: 1,799,674 (5.0%)

CSA 2020 population: 1,890,162 (4.9%)

[BFG]

Know what? I'll take it. While I wish we could've had a double-digit percentage growth like other markets, 5% is still a nice jump. The way VB and Chesapeake keep booming with no end in sight, we might actually see 2M this decade.

[vdogg]

5 hours ago, lammius said:

Local-level population data from the 2020 Census were released today. 

Norfolk's population dropped 2% to 238,005.  Norfolk is now a distant third in the ranking of VA cities by population.  And Richmond is poised to push it to 4th soon.

The top 10 cities in VA in 2020 are listed below.  % change since 2010 is also provided.  Two cities declined - Norfolk and Hampton.  Portsmouth posted its first population increase since 1960!

• Va Beach: 459,470 (4.9%)
• Chesapeake: 249,422 (12.2%)
• Norfolk: 238,005 (-2.0%) <-largest decline
• Richmond: 226,610 (11.0%)
• Newport News: 186,247 (3.1%)
• Alexandria: 159,467 (13.9%) <-fastest-growing 
• Hampton: 137,148 (-0.2%)
• Roanoke: 100,011 (3.1%)
• Portsmouth: 97,915 (2.5%) <- first INCREASE since 1960
• Suffolk: 94,324 (11.5%)

The hell is going on in Chesapeake? Holy cow, that's NoVA style growth. Bodes well for Summit Pointe growth.

Norfolk surprises me though.

[BFG]

8 minutes ago, vdogg said:

The hell is going on in Chesapeake? Holy cow, that's NoVA style growth. Bodes well for Summit Pointe growth.

Norfolk surprises me though.

I do real estate photography. The Butts Station/Elbow Rd. area is the next booming area, along with Grassfield. Lots of trees coming down over there. Every time I go to Chesapeake, I see forests being cleared for future development. They will very likely hit 300K by 2030.

Edited August 13, 2021 by BFG

[Kevin Cheph Randall]

Norfolk is extremely surprising, Hampton too. This area kind of needs Norfolk to be growing, with that said I live in P-town it isn't surprising. Portsmouth is cheap and they have been doing a lot of infilling in neighborhoods. Downtown Portsmouth has also added about 5/6 new apartment complex's in the last 10 years too. I expect Portsmouth to continue to grow, especially with the casino, new subdivision, and apartments being built. If Norfolk could learn anything from any city it would be Richmond. VCU has been a powerhouse in turning Richmond around I feel like ODU could do the same for Norfolk it needs a younger vibe, and more public art lol. I guess it is a positive that Portsmouth is growing again though, with the tolls too.  That's honestly the silver lining in all of this, if Portsmouth can do it so can HR lol. That's the motto.

I do expect this area to pass 2M, we need a national presents of some sort. Something In The Water is/was that but of coarse covid hasn't helped much, hopefully Military Circle can come thru. The casinos should help I mean this area is freaking loaded honestly,  historic districts, beaches, world class-theme park, zoo, aquarium, children museum, outlets, an Ikea, light-rail, cruise-ship port, multiple downtowns, casinos, rail, 2 airports, deepest ports just about anywhere, and the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX LOL. Some semblance of regionalism would go along way too people need to know what this area offers within a 1hr drive or less, casinos should help. 

How did the areas between HR and Richmond do? Williamsburg is such a central location, arguably the best location in Va. Its literally 45mins from Norfolk and Richmond, if Williamsburg can develop into a micro metropolis we should be able to merge with Richmond msa, the expansion of  64 really seems helps in making that connection too. 

11 minutes ago, vdogg said:

The hell is going on in Chesapeake? Holy cow, that's NoVA style growth. Bodes well for Summit Pointe growth.

Norfolk surprises me though.

North Suffolk is booming too. But yeah Chesapeake has the land now and way better interstate access than Va Beach does. 

[EJ_LEWIS]

I don't believe the census numbers.  Norfolk is undercounted every census and the city has had to appeal the bureau's count.  If I remember correctly in 2010 the city appealed the count and low and behold Norfolk gained 5,000 residents.  Its the Navy that is habitually undercounted.  Lets see if the city appeals the census counts.  

[urbanlife]

On 8/12/2021 at 12:07 PM, lammius said:

Local-level population data from the 2020 Census were released today. 

Norfolk's population dropped 2% to 238,005.  Norfolk is now a distant third in the ranking of VA cities by population.  And Richmond is poised to push it to 4th soon.

The top 10 cities in VA in 2020 are listed below.  % change since 2010 is also provided.  Two cities declined - Norfolk and Hampton.  Portsmouth posted its first population increase since 1960!

• Va Beach: 459,470 (4.9%)
• Chesapeake: 249,422 (12.2%)
• Norfolk: 238,005 (-2.0%) <-largest decline
• Richmond: 226,610 (11.0%)
• Newport News: 186,247 (3.1%)
• Alexandria: 159,467 (13.9%) <-fastest-growing 
• Hampton: 137,148 (-0.2%)
• Roanoke: 100,011 (3.1%)
• Portsmouth: 97,915 (2.5%) <- first INCREASE since 1960
• Suffolk: 94,324 (11.5%)

Seems like what Richmond is doing right, Norfolk isn't doing. If I were my 24yr old self owning a condo in VB, I would be renting it out and moving to Richmond with all the positive changes they have been making. It's really amazing going on the Richmond page to see how much that city is changing.  Like Richmond, Norfolk should be capitalizing on people looking for that urban lifestyle that can't afford to live in more popular cities. That is basically how Portland, OR blew up in growth, my city was seen as the cheap west coast city option for those wishing to live in SF or Seattle but both were too expensive for them. Now people that would have moved to Portland are looking for someplace like Portland but more affordable. 

Its not surprising to see how fast Chesapeake is growing, but it is sad to see it basically becoming the new Virginia Beach without a beach. At this rate, it will just become a big massive suburban sprawl city like VB with no real urban center. Oddly enough, hopefully the Dollar Tree can fill that urban void. 

On a side note, I tip my hat to Alexandria, I didn't know they even had any room left to grow in that little old city.

[Icetera]

On 8/15/2021 at 1:58 AM, urbanlife said:

Seems like what Richmond is doing right, Norfolk isn't doing. If I were my 24yr old self owning a condo in VB, I would be renting it out and moving to Richmond with all the positive changes they have been making. It's really amazing going on the Richmond page to see how much that city is changing.  Like Richmond, Norfolk should be capitalizing on people looking for that urban lifestyle that can't afford to live in more popular cities. That is basically how Portland, OR blew up in growth, my city was seen as the cheap west coast city option for those wishing to live in SF or Seattle but both were too expensive for them. Now people that would have moved to Portland are looking for someplace like Portland but more affordable. 

Its not surprising to see how fast Chesapeake is growing, but it is sad to see it basically becoming the new Virginia Beach without a beach. At this rate, it will just become a big massive suburban sprawl city like VB with no real urban center. Oddly enough, hopefully the Dollar Tree can fill that urban void. 

On a side note, I tip my hat to Alexandria, I didn't know they even had any room left to grow in that little old city.

My view, based on the forums over here, is that Norfolk is doing what Richmond has but is currently where Richmond was about 5-10 years ago.  Where we complain about competition with our two surrounding counties, Norfolk has that issue but amplified.  Richmond also has had the advantage of not having demolished our urban core allowing us to transition from 5-over-1s to 10+ stories quicker as available property dwindles.  I have significant doubts about the census' accuracy as pertains to urban core cities, such as Richmond and Norfolk, and just as I doubt Richmond is actually under 230k I also suspect Norfolk may not have seen a population loss.  It would be great if we could get some validation and possible corrections, otherwise 2030 may be quite interesting.