cjd5050

2017 Predictions

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Not sure if this belongs here or in the Coffee House but seeing as since we're closing in on 2017 I would love to see some predictions from the posters here on what we will be talking about in 12 months from now that's not currently being discussed.  

Only rule, no predictions of Levine Properties doing anything in the First Ward as I think we should only discuss probable not possible.  :tw_dissapointed_relieved:

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Besides the obvious of Tryon Place and Observer tower:

atherton

design center

grand bohemian

first Citizens land sale

railroad land sale by CTC 

optimist park and noda explosion

gantt center land sale

the piece of land Levine actually gave up so something will be developed will have an announcement 

other stuff that I'm too lazy to look up and can't remember right now 

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14 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

1. The land behind the Vue, accross the street from Harris Teeter, Residential. 6th & Pine

Speaking of this lot, how long do you think McCarthy Tires can/will hold on to the other corner?   That's a pretty big parcel.

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5 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

Speaking of this lot, how long do you think McCarthy Tires can/will hold on to the other corner?   That's a pretty big parcel.

I hope the buildings stay forever and get renovated into something cool. Super cool buildings. 

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15 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I hope the buildings stay forever and get renovated into something cool. Super cool buildings. 

Really?  I don't think there is anything special about it.  

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11 minutes ago, SgtCampsalot said:

Let's be honest here, they're not made out of wood, so they're special.

Just love me some lowslung semi historic brick buildings. Its much better from the inside. Would make a super dope Brewery.

Screen Shot 2016-12-13 at 9.51.15 AM.png

Edited by ricky_davis_fan_21
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1 hour ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

3. Polk, which will be demolished, will get announced as a 20 floor apartment tower. 

.... and this is why we can't have nice things. (But thanks for the awesome list!)

 

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Just now, kermit said:

.... and this is why we can't have nice things. (But thanks for the awesome list!)

 

I'm trying to figure out if i have legal standings to file suit against the NCDOT to try to save the building... Anyone have an idea? My lawyer advised against it lol.

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1 hour ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I tried to play this game, but a lot of my predictions I knew are in the works already, so I deleted them.

I'll give it a try anyways. Breaking it down in categories.

A. I think in 2017 we will see the following land change hands to developers

1. NCRR 
2. the Land behind Gantt (I hear this might already be in the works)
3. First Citizens Land behind the future Bohemian (Which I think will break ground 3rd Qtr 2017) Church & Fourth

B. I think we will see development proposals for the following land. 
1. The land behind the Vue, accross the street from Harris Teeter, Residential. 6th & Pine
2. The Land behind the Liberty, Tupelo Honey and the Church along the light rail in SouthEnd. Office/Retail
3. Polk, which will be demolished, will get announced as a 20 floor apartment tower. 
4. The Yearly payments to the Westin will expire, allowing the CRVA and the Charlotte Chamber to throw some money at a new Convention Hotel, likely at the Duke Data Center or at the Gantt Land.
5. Along with our 1.1M Sq Foot Office Tower, we will see the rest of LH land flesh out, 1000 residential, 850 hotel and 250k retail.
6. We will see a revived 1Brevard, just not as a pricey condo. 
7. The Mill District (Love that name) goes truly bonkers.
8. 5 more boutique office buildings get announced.

C. Retail
1. Atherton & Design Center will sign mall type tenants. Revolutionizing in town shopping. 
2. The Sullivans Building in SouthEnd gets renovated to link the two new shopping districts better. 
3. Lincoln Harris will deliver more mall quality space to uptown. 
4. Tryon Place will bring to the table a better quality dining and entertainment district than Epicentre

D. Levine
1. Will still be sending back his meals at restaurants, because he changed his mind, while the William Trelaor House Falls down from neglect. 

E. Someone will give Condos One more shot.

F. Nuclear War over the South China Sea, we all die.

I do want to see the Carolina Theatre finished first. Then we can all die.

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The old A&P building in South End is converted into a bustling marketplace, featuring a variety of charcuterie, empanadas, gelato & more.

Or a brewery.

 

1930-ap-park.jpg

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24 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I'm trying to figure out if i have legal standings to file suit against the NCDOT to try to save the building... Anyone have an idea? 

Legal schmegal.....chain yourself to the building!

 

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1 hour ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

F. Nuclear War over the South China Sea, we all die.

If, by some miricle, this does not happen we are looking at a new federal government that is run by a real estate developer who is being advised by a gaggle of investment bankers and Bond-villan level oil industry execs. We are certainly staring down the barrel of real estate bubble 2.1. The questions we need answers to are: 

A)how long till it bursts?

My prediction) 4q 019?

B) how much of this river of capital will Charlotte miss out on due to HB2?

My prediction) I see lots of money flowing to sprawl in Charlotte, but HB2 is likely to limit uptown building IMO.

C) might the existence of HB2 actually shield us both bubble inflation and the ensuing downturn?

My prediction)  Charlotte is going to get whipsawed by a big suburban bubble combined with a weaker central city than other top 20 metros

Disclaimer: I am a lousy prognosticator

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We desperately need a urban mall in uptown. we finally have a grocer, now just need a mall. If we can get this in 2017, Charlotte will be a truly walkable city. 

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4 minutes ago, lewy2000 said:

The old A&P building in South End is converted into a bustling marketplace, featuring a variety of charcuterie, empanadas, gelato & more.

Or a brewery.

 

1930-ap-park.jpg

This is such a great building, I have always envisioned it being a large market like Reading Terminal Market in Philly or something along those lines.  

As for predictions, I agree with most of what everyone has stated above.  I would add another 10+ story office/residential/hotel building in Ballantyne and South Park, hopefully the start of some TOD along Elizabeth Ave along with the construction of the 2nd phase of the street car, ironing out funding for the Silver Line, construction of the Terminal A addition at the airport (hopefully new international service but i doubt it), and finally start of some utility work, etc. at the River District.

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8 minutes ago, jtmonk said:

hopefully the start of some TOD along Elizabeth Ave

Not Happening. Clay Grubb is too afraid of the Real Estate bubble that is coming.

13 minutes ago, kermit said:

If, by some miricle, this does not happen we are looking at a new federal government that is run by a real estate developer who is being advised by a gaggle of investment bankers and Bond-villan level oil industry execs. We are certainly staring down the barrel of real estate bubble 2.1. The questions we need answers to are: 

A)how long till it bursts?

My prediction) 4q 019?

B) how much of this river of capital will Charlotte miss out on due to HB2?

My prediction) I see lots of money flowing to sprawl in Charlotte, but HB2 is likely to limit uptown building IMO.

C) might the existence of HB2 actually shield us both bubble inflation and the ensuing downturn?

My prediction)  Charlotte is going to get whipsawed by a big suburban bubble combined with a weaker central city than other top 20 metros

Disclaimer: I am a lousy prognosticator

 I actually think Trump presidency will lead to an artificially stronger Center City Charlotte, propped up by the deregulation of banks.

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16 minutes ago, kermit said:

If, by some miricle, this does not happen we are looking at a new federal government that is run by a real estate developer who is being advised by a gaggle of investment bankers and Bond-villan level oil industry execs. We are certainly staring down the barrel of real estate bubble 2.1. The questions we need answers to are: 

A)how long till it bursts?

My prediction) 4q 019?

B) how much of this river of capital will Charlotte miss out on due to HB2?

My prediction) I see lots of money flowing to sprawl in Charlotte, but HB2 is likely to limit uptown building IMO.

C) might the existence of HB2 actually shield us both bubble inflation and the ensuing downturn?

My prediction)  Charlotte is going to get whipsawed by a big suburban bubble combined with a weaker central city than other top 20 metros

Disclaimer: I am a lousy prognosticator

HB2 barely moves the dial. *waits for freakoutrage to subside* And I don't buy the doomsaying. 2017 will be strong.

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1 minute ago, Dale said:

HB2 barely moves the dial. *waits for freakoutrage to subside* And I don't buy the doomsaying. 2017 will be strong.

2017 should be a historic year IMO also. Global markets are acting very pleasing towards trump as well as markets here in the US. This is the first time i'm even hearing of a real estate bubble, and im fairly close to the real estate world. I hope a bank relocates to Charlotte, because whichever city has a bank like Rickey stated, will boom with development. 

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17 hours ago, Dale said:

HB2 barely moves the dial.

Yea, Costar was probably only about the cost of space...

edit: here is Johnny Harris calling HB2 "the single most damaging event in North Carolina's economic development" in his lifetime.

http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2016/12/13/johnny-harris-talks-hb2-real-estate-market-and.html?ana=e_du_prem&s=article_du&ed=2016-12-13&u=jDmEk%2BCKbYnAvaVfOFOlFGXcGSC&t=1481706242&j=76747751

Edited by kermit

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Just to let you know that there is one reader/poster on this board who was a customer of this A&P in the early-mid 70's. It was the darkest and dirtiest store I can recall. The only natural light was from those front windows and antique lighting from waaaay overhead was quite ineffective. The brown (brown!) linoleum floor had voids and looked like compacted dirt rather than solid modern flooring. Everything reeked of age. I bought no butcher meat here. As a Dilworth resident at the time shopping choices were few. Miller Office Equipment has owned this location for many years. There was a Colonial grocery at Charlottetowne Mall, later Midtown and now Metropolitan.

Across the street was Niven Drugs as well as a long time shoe repair shop. Niven Drugs had a soda fountain and served lime ice cream, a favorite of my house mate at the time and I still recall it fondly. The facade of these buildings was preserved and remains, so something can be seen of this past. An early Holy Comforter Church was on the site of Carabbas. This block, the center of commerce for the original community of Dilworth of 1890-1920, has been preserved as much as any block in the middle of Charlotte, I believe.

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1 hour ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

Just love me some lowslung semi historic brick buildings. Its much better from the inside. Would make a super dope Brewery.

Screen Shot 2016-12-13 at 9.51.15 AM.png

Don't get me wrong, put this building somewhere else in the city and I am right there with you.  But I mostly see parking lot and a 1 story building of little significance.  The building with the Michelin sign is a bit different but not by that much.

I guess my take is this.  If teh cars are bad and sprawl is bad then the opposite should also be bad.  That being prime parcels that don't have the density of surrounding buildings.  

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