2017 Predictions

[CLTProductions]

Dang Rdf you put way more effort into that than I did lol 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Jayvee said:

Dang Rdf you put way more effort into that than I did lol 

I had been writing mine for about 5 minutes before yours popped up, so its very interesting that we predicted the same things :-)

[ES Charlotte]

I'll add unknown condos and a hotel to RDF and Jayvees list 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, ES Charlotte said:

I'll add unknown condos and a hotel to RDF and Jayvees list 

Maybe this is what happens when you wrestle away some of Levine's land 

[Dale]

Is the Canopy hotel on Levineland still a go ?

[CLTProductions]

3 minutes ago, Dale said:

Is the Canopy hotel on Levineland still a go ?

It is still on the Hilton site and listed for a 2019 opening. So I guess?? Who knows 

[kermit]

more of a wish list than an actual prediction:

1) The airport and Lincoln Harris cooperate to set aside LRT right of way to a people mover stop to the terminals, a new airport hotel and the river district. 

2) plans for redevelopment of Brookhill are announced (but not started)

3) the LoSo entertainment district (OMB area) reaches critical mass and becomes the beginner faux hipster neighborhood as remaining industrial tenants depart for the airport area

4) Southend gets the bulk of the boutique office projects mentioned above -- begins to take shape as a stand-alone Class A submarket

5) The Gold District gets some momentum but competition with LoSo puts a low-ceiling on commercial growth in 2017 and 2018

6) Charlotte pipe begins to shop their parcels thanks to tax credits that make their Stanley county site more attractive

7) W Trade and Five Points area begin to see commercial gentrification catch up to residential change (in lead-up to GL phase 2)

8) Sears in Carolina Place mall shuts down -- causes significant hand wringing about Pineville retail space.

9) Savonia Mill redevelopment project announced [I didn't realize this would be in the CBJ today http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2016/12/13/savona-mill-project-focuses-on-history.html?ana=e_ae_set1&s=article_du&ed=2016-12-13&u=jDmEk%2BCKbYnAvaVfOFOlFGXcGSC&t=1481665366&j=76747751#g1 ]

10) mode share of bike commuting the the corridors connecting uptown to Dilworth, Wesley Heights and NoDa doubles as city completes protected lanes 

11) BLE ridership exceeds modeled projections by 25% thanks mostly to NoDa stations and weekend ridership

12) Asian Corners parcels sell

14) The Penguin brand is resurrected (but poorly)

15) The pretense of maintaining Cherry as a lower income neighborhood is abandoned and an explosion of infill McMansions results

16) The Park / McDonald / Kennilworth triangle (area around Fran's and RuSans) see major retail redevelopment accelerate 

17) City and NCDOT find a PPP partner for Gateway Station phase 2

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, kermit said:

more of a wish list than an actual prediction:

1) The airport and Lincoln Harris cooperate to set aside LRT right of way to a people mover stop to the terminals, a new airport hotel and the river district. 

2) plans for redevelopment of Brookhill are announced (but not started)

3) the LoSo entertainment district (OMB area) reaches critical mass as remaining industrial tenants begin to leave for airport area

4) Southend gets the bulk of the boutique office projects mentioned above -- begins to take shape as a stand-alone submarket

5) The Gold District becomes something noteworthy but competition with LoSo puts a low-ceiling on commercial growth in 2017 and 2018

6) Charlotte pipe begins to shop their parcels thanks to tax credits that make their Stanley county site more attractive

7) W Trade and Five Points area begin to see commercial gentrification catch up to residential change (in lead up to GL phase 2)

8) Sears in Carolina Place mall shuts down

9) Ambassidor Mill redevelopment project announced 

10) mode share of bike commuting the the corridors connecting uptown to Dilworth, Wesley Heights and NoDa doubles as city completes protected lanes 

11) BLE ridership exceeds modeled projections by 25% thanks mostly to NoDa stations and weekend ridership

12) Asian Corners parcels sell

14) The Penguin brand is resurrected (but poorly)

15) The pretense of maintaining Cherry as a lower income neighborhood is abandoned and an explosion of infill McMansions results

16) The Park / McDonald / Kennilworth triangle (area around Fran's and Rusans) see major retail redevelopment accelerate 

17) City and NCDOT find a PPP partner for Gateway Station phase 2

9) Ambassidor Mill redevelopment project announced 

What dis? 

This reminds me of something. 

• Hercules Industrial Park Redevelopment will be announced in 2017. North End will get some traction with Vision Ventures/Flywheel

[kermit]

12 minutes ago, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

9) Ambassidor Mill redevelopment project announced 

What dis? 

Oops, brain fart. Its actually Savonia Mill (but its on Ambassidor street adjacent to Blue Blaze)

I'll add one more: Charlotte gets an actual planning director (instead of an interim) 

[uptownliving]

My prediction is that with the new Trump administration the FAA will approve the movement of the airport from city control to the new state created regional board...and Jerry Orr will return as airport director.

[Miesian Corners]

On 12/13/2016 at 10:53 AM, Dale said:

HB2 barely moves the dial. *waits for freakoutrage to subside* And I don't buy the doomsaying. 2017 will be strong.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/banking/bank-watch-blog/article121383203.html

Some people might measure HB2’s effect by the jobs and events that have pulled out of the state, Moynihan said.

“But the real risk is not the pulling out – that’s a risk and you feel it more – it’s the risk of never coming in,” the 57-year-old CEO said.

“Behind the scenes, people are making choices about where they’re going to do things, whether they’re going to hold a convention here, whether they’re going to locate jobs here,” he said.

 

[Third Strike]

On 12/13/2016 at 0:59 PM, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

9) Ambassidor Mill redevelopment project announced 

What dis? 

This reminds me of something. 

• Hercules Industrial Park Redevelopment will be announced in 2017. North End will get some traction with Vision Ventures/Flywheel

This is one of my most anticipated projects outside of Uptown. I want this to become our version of Durham's American Tobacco Campus.

[Dale]

6 hours ago, Miesian Corners said:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/banking/bank-watch-blog/article121383203.html

Some people might measure HB2’s effect by the jobs and events that have pulled out of the state, Moynihan said.

“But the real risk is not the pulling out – that’s a risk and you feel it more – it’s the risk of never coming in,” the 57-year-old CEO said.

“Behind the scenes, people are making choices about where they’re going to do things, whether they’re going to hold a convention here, whether they’re going to locate jobs here,” he said.

 

It's hard to reconcile all the hand-wringing with the explosive growth we're witnessing in Charlotte (Orlando is Florida's fasting growing metro, and development in central Orlando is comparatively moribund). If indeed there have been noticeable defections (under the radar screen) a Charlotte where everyone is coming would be almost unbearable.

[kermit]

10 hours ago, Dale said:

It's hard to reconcile all the hand-wringing with the explosive growth we're witnessing in Charlotte (Orlando is Florida's fasting growing metro, and development in central Orlando is comparatively moribund). If indeed there have been noticeable defections (under the radar screen) a Charlotte where everyone is coming would be almost unbearable.

I dunno that we can call it explosive growth -- we don't have any data on population change post HB2. However, if you look through the good news thread since March you will see lots of announcements about low-end service industry jobs along with some stuff on the other side of the state line. In comparison to the pre-HB2 period, there has been a huge decline in the number of high-wage professional jobs relocating into Mecklenburg. That triangulates with anecdotes from Johnny Harris, Brian Moyniham, the Chamber, the Costar story, the stunting of Regions Bank,  the abbreviation of Tryon Place etc. The evidence seems pretty clear to me -- the quality of our job growth has diminished substantially, it remains to be seen how much HB2 has impacted the volume. It is impossible (for me) to imagine that it did anything to enhance our growth.

[cltbwimob]

1 minute ago, kermit said:

I dunno that we can call it explosive growth -- we don't have any data on population growth post HB2. However, if you look through the good news thread since March you will see lots of announcements about low-end service industry jobs along with some stuff on the other side of the state line. In comparison to the pre-HB2 period, there has been a huge decline in the number of high-wage professional jobs relocating into Mecklenburg since HB2. That triangulates with anecdotes from Johnny Harris, Brian Moyniham, the Chamber, the Costar story, the stunting of Regions Bank,  the abbreviation of Tryon Place etc. The evidence seems pretty clear to me: the quality of our job growth has diminished substantially, it remains to be seen how much HB2 has impacted the volume of growth. It is impossible (for me) to imagine that HB2 did anything to enhance our growth.

Indeed

[Dale]

2 minutes ago, kermit said:

I dunno that we can call it explosive growth -- we don't have any data on population growth post HB2. However, if you look through the good news thread since March you will see lots of announcements about low-end service industry jobs along with some stuff on the other side of the state line. In comparison to the pre-HB2 period, there has been a huge decline in the number of high-wage professional jobs relocating into Mecklenburg since HB2. That triangulates with anecdotes from Johnny Harris, Brian Moyniham, the Chamber, the Costar story, the stunting of Regions Bank,  the abbreviation of Tryon Place etc. The evidence seems pretty clear to me: the quality of our job growth has diminished substantially, it remains to be seen how much HB2 has impacted the volume of growth. It is impossible (for me) to imagine that HB2 did anything to enhance our growth.

Johnny Harris is a case-in-point: Harris complains long and loudly about HB2. Moves at rapid pace with gazillion dollar development at Stonewall and Tryon.

[kermit]

Just now, Dale said:

Johnny Harris is a case-in-point: Harris complains long and loudly about HB2. Moves at rapid pace with gazillion dollar development at Stonewall and Tryon.

Which is providing retail in an undeserved market and space for a firm which is already based here. Growth (or at least reshuffling within Mecklenburg) is happening, but certainly at a _much_ lower level than it would had been if we were not governed by the taliban.

[cltbwimob]

2 minutes ago, Dale said:

Johnny Harris is a case-in-point: Harris complains long and loudly about HB2. Moves at rapid pace with gazillion dollar development at Stonewall and Tryon.

Harris' development was announced well prior to HB2.  There may have been hard agreements in place where his tenants could not back out.  Without knowing the specifics lease agreements, Tenant arrangements, etc, saying that Harris is a case and point is not exactly a strong argument.  I am pretty sure Harris is not just talking out of his ass when he says that HB2 has been a big problem.  He has a finger on the pulse of the commercial development world, so he gets to see first hand what tenants come and go and for what reason.

But you don't have to be privy to insider info in the Commercial development world to know that HB2 is bad for business; simply following the news will suffice.  Costar-732 jobs that passed on Charlotte because of HB2; PayPal-400 jobs that passed on Charlotte because of HB2; NBA All Star game gone because of HB2.  Chamber estimates put the total number of lost jobs/investment at 2000 jobs and close to 1 billion dollars respectively.  That's not peanuts.

[Spartan]

On 12/13/2016 at 8:49 AM, ricky_davis_fan_21 said:

I tried to play this game, but a lot of my predictions I knew are in the works already, so I deleted them.

I'll give it a try anyways. Breaking it down in categories.

A. I think in 2017 we will see the following land change hands to developers

1. NCRR 
2. the Land behind Gantt (I hear this might already be in the works)
3. First Citizens Land behind the future Bohemian (Which I think will break ground 3rd Qtr 2017) Church & Fourth

B. I think we will see development proposals for the following land. 
1. The land behind the Vue, accross the street from Harris Teeter, Residential. 6th & Pine
2. The Land behind the Liberty, Tupelo Honey and the Church along the light rail in SouthEnd. Office/Retail
3. Polk, which will be demolished, will get announced as a 20 floor apartment tower. 
4. The Yearly payments to the Westin will expire, allowing the CRVA and the Charlotte Chamber to throw some money at a new Convention Hotel, likely at the Duke Data Center or at the Gantt Land.
5. Along with our 1.1M Sq Foot Office Tower, we will see the rest of LH land flesh out, 1000 residential, 850 hotel and 250k retail.
6. We will see a revived 1Brevard, just not as a pricey condo. 
7. The Mill District (Love that name) goes truly bonkers.
8. 5 more boutique office buildings get announced.

C. Retail
1. Atherton & Design Center will sign mall type tenants. Revolutionizing in town shopping. 
2. The Sullivans Building in SouthEnd gets renovated to link the two new shopping districts better. 
3. Lincoln Harris will deliver more mall quality space to uptown. 
4. Tryon Place will bring to the table a better quality dining and entertainment district than Epicentre

D. Levine
1. Will still be sending back his meals at restaurants, because he changed his mind, while the William Trelaor House Falls down from neglect. 

E. Someone will give Condos One more shot.

F. Nuclear War over the South China Sea, we all die.

Have you heard rumors about the land next to the Vue or is this just speculation?

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Spartan said:

Have you heard rumors about the land next to the Vue or is this just speculation?

[Nick2]

Just using some of the demand forecasting knowledge that I have from my studies, Charlotte's market for office and apartments is going to continue going strong through 2017. There is no indication or any reason to believe things will change from how they were this year.

I can run the actual numbers and post an estimate if ya'll would like. It would just be on percent growth or volume by square footage. 

[archiham04]

I predict that in 2017 city leaders will realize that the current CBD (uptown) is too small to sustain a city growing as fast as ours, and they will begin looking for a new district to allow unlimited height....

....only to realize that there is none available.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Instead of waiting for a Gateway intercity train station, we look at the existing station, connect it to LRE, and extend Charlotte's "core" up N. Tryon.

[stiluvclt]

1. Just as they pooled their resources for the River District, LH and Crescent will create a grand 3-block mall / midway, entertainment zone between College St. and BoA Stadium in the midst of their main developments.

2. There will be no "Bohemian Rhapsody".  Kessler will come up with a Levinesque excuse.

 

[Guest]

1. Just as they pooled their resources for the River District, LH and Crescent will create a grand 3-block mall / midway, entertainment zone between College St. and BoA Stadium in the midst of their main developments.
2. There will be no "Bohemian Rhapsody".  Kessler will come up with a Levinesque excuse.
 

Kessler purchased the land, I doubt they are just land banking.


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