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Orlando Mayoral Race


spenser1058

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Our thought for the day from 538 wunderkind Nate Silver: "I just want to say that it's lame that Miami Beach is a separate town from Miami.In how many other cities is the most famous part... actually not in the city? It's like if Central Park were actually in Weehawken, New Jersey."

Once again, tonight's big news from the Brick Bunker: Democratic Sheriff Jerry Demings will become Orange County Mayor. He'll be the county's first Democratic leader since Linda Chapin term-limited out in 1998.

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7 minutes ago, spenser1058 said:

In what is perhaps the upset of the evening,Andrew Gillum will be the Democratic nominee for governor. He'll meet Ron DeSantis on the Republican side in November. More later after I pout a little.

Oh well.

Get ready for Governor DeSantis. :sick:

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2 hours ago, spenser1058 said:

Once again, tonight's big news from the Brick Bunker: Democratic Sheriff Jerry Demings will become Orange County Mayor. He'll be the county's first Democratic leader since Linda Chapin term-limited out in 1998.

This definitely is the most worrying result tonight for me. I personally did not like how his police department was run, and don't have much faith for him running the county well. Its not surprising he won though, there is a significant portion of Republicans that generally believe the police are all heroes, no matter what, and likely gave him a ton of votes from the right, on top of obviously capturing the left. Even more so with it being "nonpartisan" on the ballot.

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1 hour ago, Ivanhoe said:

And Senator Scott... eek.

I have no doubt about it that Rick Scott has WH ambitions. Hopefully the voters of Florida place the brakes on his corrupt political future.

The same chilling, hair-raising thought occurred to me recently. Then I remembered the Columbia/HCA thing and it gave me a little bit of hope that maybe if he does attempt a run at the WH, the scrutiny over that will be so much more intense than it ever was before, that it might possibly throw a wrench into his plans.

But just having him become our Senator would be bad enough. I hope Bill Nelson comes out of hiding soon and starts campaigning against him.

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13 hours ago, JFW657 said:

The same chilling, hair-raising thought occurred to me recently. Then I remembered the Columbia/HCA thing and it gave me a little bit of hope that maybe if he does attempt a run at the WH, the scrutiny over that will be so much more intense than it ever was before, that it might possibly throw a wrench into his plans.

But just having him become our Senator would be bad enough. I hope Bill Nelson comes out of hiding soon and starts campaigning against him.

Bill Nelson is 75.  He’s probably not hiding, just napping.

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31 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

I'd still rather have him in office than Skeletor.

Absolutely no doubt. Senator Nelson has been a work horse in Congress and an old-school Southern gentleman. Compared to his opponent who nearly went to jail for Medicare fraud and there should be no contest. Oh well, people who vote based on TV ads deserve what they get, I suppose.

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OK, now that I recovered from my losses in two races (Gwen Graham and Eric Rollings), I did want to congratulate Andrew Gillum. He definitely has charisma and maybe that's what we need. The concern of the professionals is that he's so far left he'll scare off the independents needed to win (remember, Rick Scott won both his races by less than 1% and had a big money advantage.)

Ron DeSantis (right off the bat, he showed his true colors with remarks even FOX News walked away from) is so far right he's gone round the bend and that generally is not the Florida electorate. 

Turnout will be key. Florida has a huge number of elderly voters and they almost all vote. Florida also has a huge number of young people in the cities and they almost never vote in midterms.

Supposedly, Gillum can motivate turnout among African-American voters. If true, that's great, but that wasn't what happened when Kendrick Meek was the Democratic Senate nominee.

Supposedly, the young Bernie Bros will be more likely to turn out for progressive Gillum than moderate Gwen, but the Bernie Bros often prefer to protest and harangue on Reddit more than they like to vote.

Hopefully, both of those things will change because the alternative is a governor with little knowledge of Florida whose major qualification seems to be his affinity for The Donald.

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A really good look at how polling was so off in the governor's race:

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/8/30/17796308/florida-primary-andrew-gillum

From Vox

A big change: young voter turnout was apparently much larger than normal. It may be that groups like the Parkland survivors motivated their peers to get out and vote. If this somehow continues, it's good news for Florida Democrats as younger voters, while more likely to register NPA, are also more likely to vote for Democratic candidates.

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I also think the Gillum voters, if they come out, help Nelson. If FL dems GOTV in this mid term as they did in the Obama elections, then it is an easy win.

It would help Gillum to see if Graham will campaign for him- maybe even consider Lt. Gov. 

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25 minutes ago, AmIReal said:

I also think the Gillum voters, if they come out, help Nelson. If FL dems GOTV in this mid term as they did in the Obama elections, then it is an easy win.

It would help Gillum to see if Graham will campaign for him- maybe even consider Lt. Gov. 

I think you're right about the Senate race. Gwen has already said she's all in - the Grahams have always been good about supporting the party. I think LG's have to be done by next Wednesday so we'll know soon.

Meanwhile, I already made my first contribution online to Andrew. I can't even fathom a Gov. DeSantis.

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Maybe if Gillum highlights his stance on legalizing weed, he'll get a massive youth turnout.

Stress that it's the difference between himself as Governor with a Democrat controlled legislature vs DeSantis with a Republican controlled legislature.

That and expanding Medicaid.

1 hour ago, AmIReal said:

I also think the Gillum voters, if they come out, help Nelson. If FL dems GOTV in this mid term as they did in the Obama elections, then it is an easy win.

It would help Gillum to see if Graham will campaign for him- maybe even consider Lt. Gov. 

It would really help him if Obama would come down here and campaign for him.

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2 minutes ago, JFW657 said:

Maybe if Gillum highlights his stance on legalizing weed, he'll get a massive youth turnout.

Stress that it's the difference between himself as Governor with a Democrat controlled legislature vs DeSantis with a Republican controlled legislature.

That and expanding Medicaid.

Are Cheech and Chong still available to cut ads? <g> Heck, imagine the possibilities. The Villages are already infamous for STD outbreaks so maybe C&C will bring out the old folks, too, while they get wild and crazy (hmmm, Steve Martin, too?)

And of course John Morgan: "For the Stoners."

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In the first publicly released poll since the primary, Andrew Gillum leads Ron DeSantis by 5 points.

Two caveats: margin of error is +/- 4 and the pollster is Democratic-leaning PPP. 

Nevertheless, it shows a stunning lead for Gillum among independents right out of the gate.

Stay tuned...

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/404423-first-post-primary-poll-shows-gillum-leading-desantis-by-5-in-florida?amp

From The Hill

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USA Today thinks our Senate race may go nuclear because of the winners from the gubernatorial primaries:

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/1067783002

I guess that will help Bill Nelson wake up from his nap! (Personal note: I believe Bill to be one of the hardest working senators and a true gentleman but his style is a tad somnambulant...)

 

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On ‎9‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 12:11 PM, JFW657 said:

She said basically the same thing I've been saying (posting on political forums) since the first time I heard that "MAGA" nonsense.

The McCains didn't invite Trump to the funeral so they could Wellstone him.

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