Orlando Mayoral Race

[orlandoguy]

It's looking like the Orange County mayoral race to succeed term-limited Teresa Jacobs may turn into a free for all. Latest rumor on web-based Orlando Rising is that former mayor Rich Crotty is considering another run if it's determined he's allowed another shot. This is very different from the last few cycles where candidates were few and far between.

Has anyone else filed to run? If not, are there other names floating around? Thanks!

[spenser1058]

It seems to be more of a question who won't run at this point. I don't think anyone major has filed yet, but names being bandied about include Sheriff Jerry Demings, Tax Collector Scott Randolph, Property Appraiser Rick Singh (the most buzz so far) on the Dem side (even if the race is technically nonpartisan) and OCPS Chair Bill Sublette on the GOP side, as well as Crotty and a couple of state legislators who escape me at the moment. Stay tuned - I'll add more info as I get it.

[spenser1058]

In other politics, Gwen Graham (Bob's daughter) is running for governor as a Democrat. She knows how to run successfully in red parts of the state like the Panhandle and we couldn't ask for a better pedigree so this is a net good for Dems.

Meanwhile, Ag Commish Adam Putnam is in for the GOP. He hasn't challenged Rick Scott much and comes from a FFF, so if you think Tally's on the right track, he may be your guy.

[spenser1058]

Here's a bit of a surprise:

http://orlando-politics.com/2017/06/14/john-mina-would-consider-run-for-orange-county-sheriff-if-jerry-demings-runs-for-mayor/

OPD Chief John Mina indicates he might run for OC Sheriff if Jerry Demings opts to run for OC Mayor.

Jerry is a fine sheriff and I hope he is re elected but is hardly the big-picture sort with the extroverted personality required to fight the GOP and be elected OC Mayor. 

This is also the first I've heard  of Mina wanting to exercise his political chops. Stay tuned...

[spenser1058]

This was sort of interesting. The Census Bureau released info about demographics and more for various counties around the country. Seminole County came in as looking most like the US as a whole for the present. Seminole is of course a Republican county but has been trending increasingly moderate of late. That gives an interesting slant to where things are politically at the moment.

From the NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/22/upshot/Census-Time-Machine-Demographics-in-America.html?hpw&rref=upshot&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well

[jack]

It seems strange that they are considering hispanic as a race. 

[spenser1058]

1 hour ago, jack said:

It seems strange that they are considering hispanic as a race. 

I think it's shorthand for  statistical purposes when they are making sure minorities are represented correctly in political districts, etc.

[jrs2]

4 hours ago, jack said:

It seems strange that they are considering hispanic as a race. 

It's politics.  I don't agree with it.  

[jack]

On 6/23/2017 at 10:59 AM, spenser1058 said:

I think it's shorthand for  statistical purposes when they are making sure minorities are represented correctly in political districts, etc.

Seems strange. How do they know if a person is a black hispanic? Or white hispanic. Is it self reported? 

[spenser1058]

Indeed it is, so not scientific.

[nite owℓ]

I rarely hear hispanics refer to themselves as white, black, or of Native American ancestry - especially since many are a mixture of several races.

[spenser1058]

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer tops Orlando Magazine's Most Powerful for the 5th year in a row. OC Mayor Teresa Jacobs was at 5 in the guv/politico rankings, once again confirming what we've known for some time: the power in town is under the dome, not on Rosalind.

Via Orlando Rising:

http://orlando-rising.com/buddy-dyer-tops-orlando-magazine-list-of-most-powerful-again/

[alex]

SIDE NOTE: Hispanic = ethnicity. "Most resembles America based on race, ethnicity, gender and age....Our analysis included whether someone was Hispanic or not, broad racial categories (white, black, and other), age (in five-year groups up to 85 and over) and gender."

From the 2010 census:

[jack]

A lot of smart people confuse race with ethnicity. I have had many cross eyed looks when I have said Hispanic is not a race. 

[spenser1058]

Even race is a political construct. During the days of Jim Crow, the percentages used determining one's race were done by legislatures not scientists. It's very much the way the age of consent is determined by legislatures, resulting in different ages for different states. At the end of the day, over 99% of DNA is identical in humans. The reason we have to address it all is due to stupidity in our past. Hopefully by the time we get to the 24th century with Mr. Spock, IDIC will prevail and no one will care if "the star-bellied sneeches have stars upon thars."

[Boomer136]

Brazilians are rather put out to be referred to as Hispanic.

[spenser1058]

It's official- Sheriff Jerry Demings has filed to run for OC Mayor next year after Teresa Jacobs is term-limited out. Imho, he's not the strongest Democratic candidate for the job (even though it's technically a nonpartisan race, at least for now.)

Although he's been a successful sheriff, his key strength is as an African-American candidate pumping up the minority vote. Whether that will happen in an offyear election is anyone's guess (low turnout among key Democratic constituencies in non-presidential elections is a major reason the GOP has won every gubernatorial election since 1998.)

Meanwhile, his biggest weakness is a complete lack of charisma on the stump (as compared to his wife, for example, Congresswoman Val Demings.) Nevertheless, his entry likely precludes other Dems from running. Numerous Repubs are considering the race but none have yet filed.

From Orlando Rising:

http://orlando-rising.com/orange-county-sheriff-jerry-demings-files-to-run-for-orange-county-mayor/

[nite owℓ]

Any word on what's next for Mayor Teresa Jacobs? Although she got off to a rocky start, I think she was a good fit as county mayor...

[spenser1058]

9 hours ago, nite owℓ said:

Any word on what's next for Mayor Teresa Jacobs? Although she got off to a rocky start, I think she was a good fit as county mayor...

So far, I haven't heard anything but I'm a Democrat so I miss a lot of the GOP gossip. Moving up from the county mayor slot has been a mixed bag. Linda Chapin ran for Congress and lost narrowly (she went on to a VP slot at UCF); Mel Martinez was plucked by Dubya early in his term to be HUD secretary and went on to become a US senator (a job he didn't seem to care for - last I heard he was a rainmaker for Chase Bank); the longest serving mayor with the longest political background, Rich Crotty, went nowhere (he seems to be playing power broker behind the scenes and he's now in the mix to run for mayor again.) So we'll see. Teresa seems to have moderated a bit much if she's planning anything in DC, so my guess is she may not be looking in that direction.

[spenser1058]

We've got a barn burner of a race for District 3 City Comissioner according to Orlando Rising:

http://orlando-rising.com/incumbent-robert-stuart-hits-six-figures-in-campaign-contributions/

Between the two candidates, they've raised over 170K and there's four months to go . Kind of amazing for such a small race (the district runs from Rosemont over to Baldwin Park.)

Robert Stuart is often assumed to be Mayor Buddy's heir apparent and is the youngest of The FFO Stuarts, O-Town's own version of the Kennedys (even if Jake went off the reservation and became a Republican.)

This is going to be a great race to watch. (Full disclosure, I'm proud to have worked for and supported the various Stuart runs for decades.)

[orlandoguy]

I met Asima Azam when she came to stump at a political club I belong to. She's definitely passionate and (I think) could bring some new ideas & perspectives to City Hall.

Good luck to them all!

[spenser1058]

Scott Maxwell at the Sentinel on "Why Democrats Are Losers" pretty much nails the condition of Florida's Democratic Party. That plus our congenital aversion to voting in any but the marquee elections:

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-florida-democrats-losers-scott-maxwell-20170803-story.html

[spenser1058]

The 2018 race to succeed term-limited Orange County Mayor Teresa Jacobs took a major step forward in the last few days with several new candidates announcing from the GOP (although technically a nonpartisan race, the local parties and media are already ensuring there's little doubt where each candidate's political home is, toften to the chagrin of the candidates themselves.)

While I'll be posting more about various candidates (especially OCPS Chair Bill Sublette, who I'm having a personal challenge deciding about,) it's interesting to note that even an old-line Chamber of Commerce hack like Commissioner Pete Clarke is finding it valuable in increasingly blue OC to embrace an environmental agenda, even when most of his votes on the commission have gone the other way.

Make no mistake: we're likely to see big changes on S. Rosalind after next fall.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/246445-bill-sublette-calls-continuing-teresa-jacobs-legacy-orange-county-mayors-race

From Florida Politics.com

[spenser1058]

Another big change potentially coming is at Orlando City Hall.

A petition is in play to term limit the mayor and council members for the first time?

While term limits seem to be like motherhood and apple pie, unobjectionable to everyone, there are some significant downsides.

One of the reasons Orlando's mayor has long been the region's most important elected official (which seems counterintuitive given the OC mayor has a much larger constituency)  is both because (s)he leads a strong-mayor form of governance but also is not term-limited. This allows Orlando mayors to act more strategically in the long-term interests of both the City and central Florida more broadly. A lack of term limits on the city council allows the mayor to develop long-term allies to support the agenda, free from the squabbling we often see on the term-limited Orange County Commission. In Buddy Dyer's case, we see this effect with his long time allies Patty Sheehan and Robert Stuart.

As is so often the case, it's interesting to see who's behind this latest petition. Many of those supporting it in the article below have lost in previous city council races. Those same folks have often been supported by political gadfly Doug Guetzloe, whose Ax the Tax group stalled local progress across a variety of fronts for 20 years.

At the end of the day, Orlando's government works. To use one of the most conservative lines ever spoken, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." That's certainly the case here.

http://orlando-rising.com/petition-seeks-term-limits-orlando-politicians/

[spenser1058]

I thought this was interesting: Orlando Rising reports OC mayoral candidate Jerry Demings has close to $120K in the bank while the GOP candidates have barely started their fund raising. That's different than how these things usually go and suggests we may see an entirely different spin on the 2018 race compared to the past. Stay tuned.

http://orlando-rising.com/jerry-demings-raises-70k-september-mayors-race/