Triangle Economic News

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

Just to throw out another question...

Why not North Hills?

[Jones_]

6 hours ago, DwnTwnRaleighGuy said:

Just to throw out another question...

Why not North Hills?

Where are you going to find 100 acres / 8 million sqft of office space up there? I think east NHE is only 30 some acres and a good chuck of that is not developable. Maybe if NHE was sitting there as a complete blank slate, but I think it's way too far along to accommodate Amazon now...

[Scotchman]

Maybe the old office park east of six forks across beltway. Takedown and build new as needed over next 10 years or so that amazon is projecting for build-out.

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

Let's talk about downtown then...

Downtown Raleigh is very small comparitvly speaking. Now, when you factor in that you will NOT get anything taller than 7 stories east of Moore square (and that's being generous) and then you have state government to the north...not an real option for 30 plus story buildings...

As to the west, you're bounded by the railroad tracks and the Boylan Heights neighborhood. And not to mention you have all of those NIMBYS who don't want anything taller than a 12 story building except directly on Fayetteville street...where would 8 million extra square feet go? Sorry for the venting. Just thinking and sharing out loud. :-)

[ctl]

To put things in perspective, downtown Raleigh today has a total of 4 million square feet of Class A office space. You'd triple that by putting all of Amazon HQ2 in downtown. Even the projected improvements to mass transit in Raleigh won't accommodate that density, so road improvements would be necessary. And I suspect the water, sewer, electricity, and natural gas lines in downtown would have to be reexamined. 

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketresearch/unitedstates/markets/raleigh/2017 reports/2017-q2-office-raleighdurham-report-colliers.pdf

 

Edited September 14, 2017 by ctl

[Trent Y]

Maybe it doesnt all go downtown though?? Or all in one location period. Put a couple good size towers downtown and maybe some other infill sized buildings. And then build a RTP style office park somewhere else within the metro? I see that idea proposed from time to time but it seems like it always get ignored. Makes a lot of sense to me especially if said Amazon office park were located somewhere that could more easily be connected to their downtown campus by mass transit.

[DPK]

10 minutes ago, Trent Y said:

Maybe it doesnt all go downtown though?? Or all in one location period. Put a couple good size towers downtown and maybe some other infill sized buildings. And then build a RTP style office park somewhere else within the metro? I see that idea proposed from time to time but it seems like it always get ignored. Makes a lot of sense to me especially if said Amazon office park were located somewhere that could more easily be connected to their downtown campus by mass transit.

There's a reason they're asking for such a high acreage.  They want to be consolidated.  It's better for connectivity of the people and company as a whole.

[Trent Y]

Just a question...do we know if amazon's WHOLE campus is all downtown?

[ctl]

Apple Park (the "Spaceship") is about to open in Cupertino, Calif. on 175 acres. It has 2.8 million square feet to accommodate up to 14,000 people. Also has 14,000 parking places. Note that Amazon is thinking larger. Of course, the Amazon people would be incremental to whatever city gets the site, whereas Apple already has a large workforce and 850,000 square feet at 1 Infinite Loop. 

[Jones_]

Park Center in RTP is the bettors pick should this area get selected. Downtown Raleigh options, I think, I are still the kick out the State and have Kane and MLS come up with a grand campus wrapping from Harrington around to Wilmington St. Also a possible area is the whole swath in SE Raleigh from the Keeter training center, through Cargill and Ace's lot, and on to include the light industrial stuff around Hammond. Pop Hammond wide again and don't pinch the halves together until the 40 interchange, and you get another could of city blocks in there. Sure this office section would be separated from the rest of the office core by a residential area, but downtown could use a geographical expansion. Not perfect I know. Also reconfiguring the whole S Saunders/MLK area to be downtown in form, would come close to allowing enough space if you included some adjacent areas in that mix (parking lots in front of Duke Energy Center e.g.

[orulz]

I hate to say it but I really think that the Triangle is kind of a stretch for Amazon. The only site that kind of makes sense is Park Center but the transit access just isn't there.

My pick to win this is Chicago. Here's why:

1. Big city, big metro means lots of amenities, lots of options.
2. Low cost of living: Real estate is WAY cheaper than any of the major markets on either coast. Almost astonishingly cheap, really, when you consider what calibre of city it is.
3. Decent size tech workforce. More tech workers there than the Triangle in absolute numbers by a wide margin - the industry just doesn't stand out as much there because the metro is so much bigger compared to us so a lower percentage of people work in tech there.
4. O'Hare is the one of the busiest airports in the world with nonstop flights to basically everywhere.
5. The Old Post Office building downtown is 2.5 million square feet in a single building and is currently being renovated as offices  and being marketed for tech companies.  Basically tailor-made for this situation, and it will be ready for move in probably some time next year. This complex basically already has its own subway station (on the blue line - with direct no-transfer access to O'Hare). As for commuter rail, it is one block from Union Station and four blocks from both Lasalle and Ogilvie, three stations which combine to serve 90% of the 300,000 people who already take commuter trains each day in Chicago.
6. For the balance of the 8 million square feet, there are numerous other nearby office proposals already actively being marketed, as well as a big 62 acre development by Related just south of there and across the river.

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

23 minutes ago, orulz said:

I hate to say it but I really think that the Triangle is kind of a stretch for Amazon. The only site that kind of makes sense is Park Center but the transit access just isn't there.

My pick to win this is Chicago. Here's why:

1. Big city, big metro means lots of amenities, lots of options.
2. Low cost of living: Real estate is WAY cheaper than any of the major markets on either coast. Almost astonishingly cheap, really, when you consider what calibre of city it is.
3. Decent size tech workforce. More tech workers there than the Triangle in absolute numbers by a wide margin - the industry just doesn't stand out as much there because the metro is so much bigger compared to us so a lower percentage of people work in tech there.
4. O'Hare is the one of the busiest airports in the world with nonstop flights to basically everywhere.
5. The Old Post Office building downtown is 2.5 million square feet in a single building and is currently being renovated as offices  and being marketed for tech companies.  Basically tailor-made for this situation, and it will be ready for move in probably some time next year. This complex basically already has its own subway station (on the blue line - with direct no-transfer access to O'Hare). As for commuter rail, it is one block from Union Station and four blocks from both Lasalle and Ogilvie, three stations which combine to serve 90% of the 300,000 people who already take commuter trains each day in Chicago.
6. For the balance of the 8 million square feet, there are numerous other nearby office proposals already actively being marketed, as well as a big 62 acre development by Related just south of there and across the river.

Chicago over Boston?

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

There is an interesting article in today's TBJ about HQ1 in Seattle. Very impressive! I believe that I now have a better understanding of what the new HQ2 will need and more and more I am just not seeing how Raleigh can produce what's required at this point in time. Maybe if this were say 20 years from now we would be playing more in the same league? Still a very cool project imho. 

[Green_man]

Like many of you, I was curious to visualize what Amazon HQ2 might look like in downtown Raleigh if they opted for a denser version of their request.  Attached rough plan shows how massive an undertaking this would be.  Essentially take our 4 tallest buildings downtown and add 7-8 more.  Wow.  But I'd say just the logistics alone probably rules out something like this, just from the number of landowners needed to coordinate.  Amazon probably selects a site with a single owner.

[InitialD]

They city or state could use a good land deal to help lure development. Here's a map of all city and state owned empty lots:

https://www.google.com/maps/@35.778581,-78.6470454,2347m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!6m1!1s1GigMd1n0cBuEZ2IFT_dhol1DKDc

 

[KJHburg]

Another Silicon Valley company is expanding in Raleigh.  A quote from an exec “The richness of talent was so remarkable. … We did a stark ranking of these cities and Raleigh was No. 1 by far – by a wide margin.”

Starting small but will grow here https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2017/09/21/silicon-valley-firm-plots-expansion-in-raleigh.html?ana=e_me_set1&s=newsletter&ed=2017-09-21&u=oAaDx%2B74FoP4qOJ%2By4AU6dhJPpc&t=1506012391&j=78858271

Edited September 21, 2017 by KJHburg

[KJHburg]

Another tech company moving to downtown Raleigh and will hire 150 in the next year or so. Moving into 43,000 sq ft in the Wells Fargo tower.  http://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article174594841.html

[RALNATIVE]

37 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Another Silicon Valley company is expanding in Raleigh.  A quote from an exec “The richness of talent was so remarkable. … We did a stark ranking of these cities and Raleigh was No. 1 by far – by a wide margin.”

Starting small but will go here https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2017/09/21/silicon-valley-firm-plots-expansion-in-raleigh.html?ana=e_me_set1&s=newsletter&ed=2017-09-21&u=oAaDx%2B74FoP4qOJ%2By4AU6dhJPpc&t=1506012391&j=78858271

Momentum never hurts...

[Jones_]

For my money, it is a parallel situation...as 10 story buildings eventually lead to 50 story ones, Pendo's lead to Amazon's. Momentum. Solid foundation. It's quite a groundswell here any a number of fronts. Rising tides...

[RALNATIVE]

This article ranks Raleigh #4 as a suitable HQ2 contender, despite have poor mass transit options.

https://qz.com/1074386/the-hard-choices-amazon-will-have-to-make-to-find-the-right-city-for-hq2/

 

 

[RALNATIVE]

I just read a Bloomberg article that makes a compelling case for Raleigh being a top pick.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-14/big-cities-aren-t-better-in-amazon-s-contest

 

 

Edited September 22, 2017 by RALNATIVE

[RALNATIVE]

On 9/19/2017 at 3:35 PM, Green_man said:

Like many of you, I was curious to visualize what Amazon HQ2 might look like in downtown Raleigh if they opted for a denser version of their request.  Attached rough plan shows how massive an undertaking this would be.  Essentially take our 4 tallest buildings downtown and add 7-8 more.  Wow.  But I'd say just the logistics alone probably rules out something like this, just from the number of landowners needed to coordinate.  Amazon probably selects a site with a single owner.

 

Here's an image of the current Amazon HQ1 in Seattle:

 

[KJHburg]

Raleigh is the 4th best city for tech workers. Someone tell Amazon. http://www.jll.com/raleigh-durham/en-us/research/snapshots/302/raleigh-durham-9-4-2017-tech-it-out

[RALNATIVE]

4 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Raleigh is the 4th best city for tech workers. Someone tell Amazon. http://www.jll.com/raleigh-durham/en-us/research/snapshots/302/raleigh-durham-9-4-2017-tech-it-out

I'm sure they already know.

[Jones_]

My gf checks google maps every morning if she is driving to RTP (she often takes the bus) from east downtown Raleigh. This morning a wreck where Wade enters west bound 40 produced the result that Western Blvd to 54 was the fastest route to RTP from east DTR. At midnight that route isn't very fast..it must have been well over an hour going in that way.  My point is that the road network, commuting options, etc are a huge counter weight to our tech workforce. One wreck on one road essentially bottle necks 50% of the region. I know this problem is not unique to our area but for 'new-south' cities and other places that have only grown since the arrival of the car on the scene, this is a critical flaw. And its just getting worse. I took a drive along 401 in northeast north Raleigh this weekend, and I am fairly certain I would blow my brains out if I had to live out there.