Triangle Economic News

[Jones_]

Saw that. Now wandering around downtown figuring out where. N&O block  and Berkeley Block seem like obvious choices but not nearly enough. 300 and 400 Hillsborough too. City property where FS1 is is a couple more acres. It’s so huge. The lot next to Holiday Inn and across from Crank Arm are near the bigger plots. The stuff along Dawson by the fire is another 2 acres. It seems like either all of this has to be marshaled or we’re talking like a 60-80 story building or two. Maybe they want to be the undisputed king of a modest but growing downtown? 

Edited May 31, 2018 by Jones_

[RALNATIVE]

I think that the entire block where the old police headquarters and city hall sit is a prime location, as well as the N&O site. Ultimately if they do choose Raleigh, I think that they will have one main campus downtown and numerous other highrise and midrise bldgs scattered throughout downtown and beyond. That's essentially how they are organized in Seattle.

I'm also starting to wonder if a number of planned developments for downtown have been intentionally placed in a holding pattern until Amazon makes it's decision. That could fundamentally change the plans for developments like 301 Hillsborough, the Edison, and a number of others.

[RALNATIVE]

1 hour ago, Jones_ said:

Maybe they want to be the undisputed king of a modest but growing downtown? 

That has been my feeling all along. They aren't going to be the king in NYC or DC or Boston or Chicago or even Atlanta because those cities are already established around other companies,  industries or government. Raleigh is already a major tech hub, plus it is not dominated by any other company at the current time, which I think will greatly appeal to a company like Amazon.

[Scotchman]

News report out of Denver

 

[KJHburg]

^^ I believe Apple is the much stronger possibility rather than Amazon.  and that would be fine . Apple already has $3 Billion invested in NC with their data centers, solar farm etc in Catawba County and the kind of site they are looking for is a perfect match for RTP.  

[RALNATIVE]

44 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

^^ I believe Apple is the much stronger possibility rather than Amazon.  

Apple is a stronger possibility, but Amazon still is a strong possibility. This is not a mutually exclusive situation,

[Spero]

Amazon is going to D.C./NoVa, you can just bet all your money on it. 

[RALNATIVE]

13 minutes ago, Spero said:

Amazon is going to D.C./NoVa, you can just bet all your money on it. 

And I assume you have the inside scoop from Jeff Bezos himself.

[ctl]

I have no info whatsoever, but I think it's fair to say that NoVa-DC and Atlanta both have a higher probability than the Triangle, and did from the start. But the Triangle is still in the game, and probabilities won't mean anything after the decision is announced. 

Edited May 31, 2018 by ctl

[Spero]

1 hour ago, RALNATIVE said:

And I assume you have the inside scoop from Jeff Bezos himself.

Of course not, but Bezos has just bought a house in DC, he owns the Washington Post, and he spends most of his time in DC. Not to mention that Amazon needs a regulatory presence as it faces antitrust attention and other regulatory issues, it's stated its heavy preference for cities with developed public transportation, and every outside observer has said this is the most likely spot. Vegas odds have Northern VA and DC each ahead of every other option.

So no, I'm not trying to be a negative nancy, I'm pulling for Raleigh, I'm just saying it's the odds-on favorite.

[Jones_]

I think there are already quite a few DC/Raleigh split timers out there. I can easily imagine somebody with their own plane doing that without any problem at all. Atlanta's 'proper urbanity' sucks. I've done plenty of walking around downtown and midtown and it's not cohesive and is mostly built out already. The outlying areas are not part of Amazon's schema per the recent articles. DC is just too damned expensive.  All of it. It's a over 1000/sqft in places like Georgetown and Alexandria and Capitol Hill and Dupont are sitting right at 1000/sqft to purchase residential. Not to mention that I can't think of any available office area that is remotely 'proper urban'. It's all sprawl in the worst way despite the Metro. Downtown Raleigh has available land, is much more affordable for housing for the average Amazon wage (existing residents beware of course)...really only our GA was holding Raleigh back in my head, and Bezos has fairly conservative economic positions...something the GA is happy to accommodate. Objectively my top choice. 

Edited June 1, 2018 by Jones_

[ctl]

11 hours ago, Spero said:

...Amazon needs a regulatory presence as it faces antitrust attention and other regulatory issues...

Yes, but the same can be said of AT&T, Microsoft in the 1990s, IBM in the 1960s and 1970s, etc. Every big company has a governmental affairs office in DC and the executives pass through regularly. But in and of itself, that doesn't mean companies put the HQs there. Disclaimer: in the 1990s I worked for a multinational whose HQ was in NoVa.

9 hours ago, Jones_ said:

... DC is just too damned expensive...

From the perspective of someone who lives in NC, certainly. From the perspective of someone who lives in northern California or even Seattle close-in, not.  And the DC metro area continues to grow in population despite the cost of housing.

Edited June 1, 2018 by ctl

[Dale]

Evidence pointing to DC: Bezos bought a house there, owns Washington Post, Yada-Yada-Yada.

[Jones_]

4 hours ago, ctl said:

From the perspective of someone who lives in NC, certainly. From the perspective of someone who lives in northern California or even Seattle close-in, not.  And the DC metro area continues to grow in population despite the cost of housing.

San Francisco saw a slight population loss recently and it's blamed on the housing costs. Boston, DC are the comps to them (and Manhattan being a whole other level still).  People making 100k in DC live in 500 sqft efficiencies which is about an average Amazon salary. People put up with it in DC because a high % are there for a short run only. Amazon is looking to plant roots for itself and its employees. I just don't think DC provides an optimal situation on that front....it's the opposite side of the coin from the concerns about Amazon driving housing costs up in areas. Only the Anacostia campus meets the urban requirement as I currently feel it is being evaluated, and that's right up against the highest housing cost areas up there. 

[ctl]

Yes, one of my sons now lives in DC and I concur with your observations. Roommates for unmarrieds are the order of the day. As I understand it, the Anacostia option would have buildings spread across both sides of the river and faces some gentrification opposition on the east bank.

 

[Jones_]

2 hours ago, ctl said:

Yes, one of my sons now lives in DC and I concur with your observations. Roommates for unmarrieds are the order of the day. As I understand it, the Anacostia option would have buildings spread across both sides of the river and faces some gentrification opposition on the east bank.

 

Sounds like you haven't seen this. 

[Green_man]

17 minutes ago, Jones_ said:

Sounds like you haven't seen this. 

Wow, that is a ridiculously thorough and well put together bid and website.  Can't imagine Raleigh presented anything even close to this quality.

[Scotchman]

Guess Anacostia/SE DC south of Capital has improved a lot since I last spent much time in DC, which was around 20 years ago. At that time Anacostia river was an open sewer and "white boys" did not walk around on the streets.  Then maybe that proposal is to bulldoze and replace everything. Can just imagine the hue and cry over doing that.

As for cost, I was actually working in North DC next to Silver Spring.  Was there for a long term project and was rented an efficacy apartment across street from office for a year. It was kind of run down but really convenient and cheaper than hotel, but still the  apartment cost more than my house payment in Chapel Hill.   

[KJHburg]

Story on Apple how they started small in Austin and grew to 6000 employees.  I think Apple is a PERFECT fit for RTP area for sure.   http://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article211436464.html

[Dale]

33 minutes ago, Green_man said:

Wow, that is a ridiculously thorough and well put together bid and website.  Can't imagine Raleigh presented anything even close to this quality.

Lots of impressive stubby buildings.

[Green_man]

3 minutes ago, Dale said:

Lots of impressive stubby buildings.

True.  That would also describe the majority of their Seattle HQ campus though.

[ctl]

I've seen it. Press coverage in DC indicates that even their own promoters are uncertain that Amazon would like to sprawl across the river. (I couldn't resist using the word "sprawl"). Plus there would be inevitable pushback from SE residents who say, with some accuracy, that they're being shoved out of the last semi-affordable housing in the district.  

SE/Anacostia has improved, at least between Minnesota Av and the river. Not sure how much different things are beyond Minnesota. Economic development isn't helped by the fact that there is a big gap in Metro between Suitland and Benning. 

[Jones_]

5 hours ago, ctl said:

I've seen it. Press coverage in DC indicates that even their own promoters are uncertain that Amazon would like to sprawl across the river. (I couldn't resist using the word "sprawl"). Plus there would be inevitable pushback from SE residents who say, with some accuracy, that they're being shoved out of the last semi-affordable housing in the district.  

SE/Anacostia has improved, at least between Minnesota Av and the river. Not sure how much different things are beyond Minnesota. Economic development isn't helped by the fact that there is a big gap in Metro between Suitland and Benning. 

Funny that they counter their own uncertainty with #obviouslyDC 

Anacostia is already gentrifying though not super rapidly yet. It looks something like east Raleigh where a place either sold 10 years ago for $80,000 or sold this year for $500,000. I'm not sure who is going to pay for the new bridge but that's no small subsidy if DC proper picks up the tab (the Feds surely won't)

Edited June 2, 2018 by Jones_

[KJHburg]

With Fort Bragg nearby and DC very close the Triangle should be the only choice for this Army Research Center  http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article212482444.html

[Crucial_Infra]

Still on track . . .