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KJHburg

Triangle Economic News

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3 minutes ago, ctl said:

Appears that the new leadership at the Research Triangle Foundation is rolling out another development plan for the center of RTP. Will be interesting to see whether this one gets any farther than previous ideas. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article224018065.html

 

Flailing. They are only 20 years behind. That combined with the non-existent transportation plan may be the end of RTP's run. Most R&D has left with only lower wage manufacturing being left behind. 

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And based on the article, there is no plan except to slap together something here and something there.  Willard Retail is some 2-bit hack strip mall developer so you can only imagine the cr-p they are going bring.  

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2 hours ago, DanRNC said:

Flailing. They are only 20 years behind. That combined with the non-existent transportation plan may be the end of RTP's run. Most R&D has left with only lower wage manufacturing being left behind. 

What on earth do you mean? There is very little manufacturing there. In fact the restrictive covenants of RTP proper specifically disallow manufacturing without consent, which has been granted in only a few instances. 

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Most of the pharma companies still located in the Park (GSK, Biogen etc.) do not maintain a significant R&D presence - these are primarily biomanufacturing sites. 

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1 hour ago, CHGuy said:

GSK's manufacturing is in Zebulon.  They do not manufacture anything in RTP.

Stand corrected on GSK. However, RTP is manufacturing heavy otherwise - timely announcement illusrating this point: 

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2019/01/08/fujifilm-to-add-100-jobs-at-rtp-campus-through-45m.html?iana=hpmvp_trig_news_headline

 

 

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It's just false to say RTP is manufacturing-heavy. The 5-largest employers:

IBM=10,000. They haven't built anything in RTP for decades. Cisco=5000. They have never built anything in RTP.  Fidelity=3700. They don't build anything anywhere. Credit Suisse=2700. They don't build anything anywhere. GSK=2600. Their manufacturing is elsewhere. Likewise BASF, Lenovo,  NetApp, NIEHS, EPA, RTI, Dell EMC, Oracle/Tekelec, IQVIA/Quintiles, and PPD.

I'd be surprised if 10% of the headcount in 27709 and 27560 is assembly line.  

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On 1/8/2019 at 11:25 AM, ctl said:

Appears that the new leadership at the Research Triangle Foundation is rolling out another development plan for the center of RTP. Will be interesting to see whether this one gets any farther than previous ideas. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/business/article224018065.html

 

Meh. This is what I call suburban mixed use. Terrible street layout, nice big parking lot at the corner of 54 and Davis etc. Landscape architects make poor master planners and should just stick to designing the pockets here and there within developments or accenting existing developments and buildings.   I realize Surface 678 has an extensive and high profile portfolio, but there is a decided 'de-urbanizing' to their approach...too Frank Lloyd Wright to ever be urban=proper (mind you Frank Lloyd Wright was world reknowned, but precisely for his ability to get people mentally and physically far far away from the dirty old city).   

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To read some posts on this board this area is missing out on all the jobs and this and that.

However this is WHAT IS happening:

""Dougherty says that, in 2018, about 28,000 new jobs were created in the Raleigh and Durham regions.  “In 2019, they’ll add probably around 24,000 new jobs,” he predicts, adding that the employment rate, in his opinion, will continue to decline.  “As the labor market tightens, wage growth picks up… and we’re certainly seeing that in Raleigh,” he adds.  The Triangle’s population growth works to its favor, he says.   “North Carolina, in 2018, was the tenth fastest-growing state in the entire country,” Dougherty says. “We’re seeing a lot of people move to North Carolina and Raleigh is on the receiving end of that.” That’s about 60 people a day moving to Raleigh""

from the Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2019/01/10/economists-talk-shutdown-wage-growth-and-triangle.html?ana=e_ae_set1&s=article_du&ed=2019-01-10&u=oAaDx%2B74FoP4qOJ%2By4AU6dhJPpc&t=1547177137&j=85977391

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On 1/11/2019 at 9:34 AM, KJHburg said:

I will re-iterrate that NC (mainly the Triangle as it is the state's biotech/pharma hub) has put their eggs in the biomanufacturing basket and has not made real strides in the R&D for some time. Great if you want low- to mid-paying jobs but the area is really losing its rep as an innovation center. 

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20 hours ago, RALNATIVE said:

Really? These are bold statements that are not supported by facts. If the Triangle was loosing it's reputation as an innovation center, you would not see so many tech companies focused on product R&D committing to bring resources here and startups ramping up their operations in this area.

Sometimes I wonder if you actually know about the things you post.

Or just negative for the sake of being that negative guy...

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Considering my business is biotech, I think I have an idea of where the innovation centers are as I travel regularly to the Boston and San Francisco areas but never have any reason to go to NC.  As reference, let's look at BioSpace's year over year list of innovative biotech companies. NC has barely any representation. The same could be said for VC investment. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/1-top-20-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-2019/

https://www.biospace.com/article/exclusive-top-20-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-2018/

https://www.biospace.com/article/the-next-generation-top-20-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-2017-/

https://www.biospace.com/article/top-30-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-the-u-s-/

I am speaking solely in terms of biotech. You people seem to take personal shots at people on here - I would say that is more negative.  

 

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I'm in telecommunications not biotech, so I'm not sure how "biotech" is defined. It's simple to say who's a telecom company and who's not. The Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina says "North Carolina’s biotechnology industry runs deep and wide, with specialties ranging from pharmaceutical manufacturing to health informatics to crop genetic engineering. Comprised of 600+ companies and over 60,000  employees, our biotech cluster has grown 31 percent since 2001." They list BASF, Bayer, BD, Bioden, GSK, Grifols, IQVIA (formerly Quintiles), LabCorp, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, and PPD as examples. 

But there's an enormous degree of diversity in that list. Some of them are drug manufacturers, but others aren't. A company like Allscripts would be biotech, but actually Allscripts has more in common with software-and-services companies in other vertical markets than with the drug manufacturers. My wife used to work at LabCorp, and I'd classify it as medical not biotech. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics says total employment in North Carolina is currently 4.3 million (all occupations). Biotech may compensate its employees at a substantially higher rate than most other industries, but it's still only about 1.4% of the state's employment even if you accept the EDPNC number. If you use a more restricted definition of biotech, the percentage gets very small. 

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On 1/16/2019 at 10:10 AM, DanRNC said:

Considering my business is biotech, I think I have an idea of where the innovation centers are as I travel regularly to the Boston and San Francisco areas but never have any reason to go to NC.  As reference, let's look at BioSpace's year over year list of innovative biotech companies. NC has barely any representation. The same could be said for VC investment. 

https://www.biospace.com/article/1-top-20-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-2019/

https://www.biospace.com/article/exclusive-top-20-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-2018/

https://www.biospace.com/article/the-next-generation-top-20-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-2017-/

https://www.biospace.com/article/top-30-life-science-startups-to-watch-in-the-u-s-/

I am speaking solely in terms of biotech. You people seem to take personal shots at people on here - I would say that is more negative.  

 

Here's the statement listed on the homepage of NC's premier biotech organization:

North Carolina’s life science sector registered another run of robust growth in 2017, ending the year with more than 700 companies employing over 63,000 people. The year was packed with major public stock offerings, billion-dollar acquisitions, venture capital deals, company expansions and accolades for the state’s bioscience prowess.

https://www.ncbiotech.org/news/nc-life-science-landscape-grows-during-2017

 

Furthermore:

A series of reports by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) highlighted North Carolina’s position as a top state in the nation for driving innovation and economic growth by attracting and growing the biopharmaceutical industry amid an increasingly competitive global environment. The reports pointed to two successful models: the Biotech Center and the state’s system for education and training to help close the skills gap.

 

With all of the growth year over year,  mainly in the Triangle, how can you argue that the industry in the Triangle, or in NC as a whole, is headed south? 

It's easy to pick article's that support the position that you want to believe, but if you look at all of the hard data publicly available, it points to continued growth in the biotech sector. Not decline or stagnation.

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From CBRE Raleigh office market report 4Q 2018:

""Market fundamentals position the Triangle well
for a strong 2019. According to CBRE’s 2019
Southeast Outlook report, Raleigh-Durham ranks
first in the Southeast in significant statistics such
as five-year projected job growth (10.8%),
population percentage with a four-year degree
(47.1%), and office employment percentage
(57.1%). The region’s diverse economic engine
driven by technology, university systems,
healthcare and Raleigh as the state capital,
continues to push population growth and
contribute to the strong office market in the
Triangle.""

More about the office market in the Raleigh Durham in particular

""Net absorption for the quarter was 995,594 sq. ft.,
which represents the strongest quarterly net
absorption of the year. Overall, the market
experienced 2 million sq. ft. of positive net
absorption in 2018.
The strong absorption numbers
demonstrate that market fundamentals in the
Triangle will continue to support the development of
new product. ""

for all the debate on the Triangle economy on this board  only one word could describe it BOOM!    it is booming with office and high paying jobs. 

But hey don't take my word for it read the report for yourself.  https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/Raleigh-Durham-Office-MarketView-Q4-2018

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From Avison Young commercial real estate brokers about the Raleigh Durham office market in 2018 and what it expects in 2019

""The Triangle economy continues to
fire on all cylinders, setting the stage
for another active year for the Triangle
office market. The region added 23,600
jobs between November 2017 and
November 2018, and unemployment fell
from 3.9% to just 3.0% during this time.
While the Triangle did not ultimately
win secondary corporate headquarters
locations for Amazon and Apple, 2018
remained a highly successful year in
terms of corporate recruitment efforts. In
the fourth quarter, Advance Auto Parts
and Pendo chose the Triangle for their
corporate headquarters, resulting in
more than 1,000 new jobs. Construction
activity is likely to push vacancy higher
in 2019, but oversupply is not currently
a significant concern. Overall conditions
should remain favorable to landlords.""

Here is the report for your review   https://www.avisonyoung.us/en_US/web/raleigh-durham/research

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