Charlotte area population statistics

[kermit]

5 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Not sure if this the right thread to put this but this is study of census tracts in Mecklenburg county with income, education attainment etc.  Very interesting.

https://mcmap.org/qol/#20/

Pedant alert (with apologies to KJH -- sorry):

• They are not census tracts, they are Neighborhood Profile Areas (which are constructed from a collection of block groups). NPAs are significantly smaller than Census Tracts and are intended to correspond to neighborhood boundaries (which Census geography often fails to do). NPA were developed for the QOL data and are unique to Charlotte.
• The data are collected and posted every year as part of the City's public data initiatives (providing this type of data, at this level of detail, is unusual for US cities)
• Its not just census data! The city posts a large amount of administrative, health and housing data as well (see below for examples)
• Many variables go back to 2002
• Its not really a study, its simply a data library intended to help others analyze trends within Mecklenburg (no conclusions are drawn from these data on this site).
• Residential demolitions is my current favorite variable (surprised about Matthews):
• My second favorite map is of "Disorder-related" calls for police assistance (see second map, Uptown is relatively quiet, seems strange that 2nd ward sees the most "disorder" in uptown -- jail and court related perhaps?)

Edited April 30, 2019 by kermit

[DH17]

Be forewarned: what follows is a bit of a personal analysis of a 'privileged' group, but I think it is a fair representation of what has been attracted to our city in the past 10-15 years and is driving the population boom in the center of town.

I was thinking the other day of what makes up the population growth in the urban core of Uptown, South End, NoDa, and PM. 90+% of my extended work and social network in my age group (young-mid 20's) lives in these 4 neighborhoods.  I'm using "network" loosely, and am thinking in my mind of roughly 50 or more  young professionals who live in one of these neighborhoods. They are a college grad, often from a major state school, likely are single or in a long-term relationship but not married, has a corporate job in Uptown or another major employment center, eats out or goes to a brewery 2+ times a week, and probably reads the Charlotte Agenda regularly. They live in a moderately expensive apartment or share a townhouse, but probably want to buy a house with a yard and get married in the next decade.

40% were born and grew up in other states, mostly in the North. They, like me, moved here as an adult for school or work.

40% were born in other states/countries - a mix of the North, South, and Intl - but grew up in NC outside of Charlotte. They have now moved here for school or work.

20% were born in NC or moved to Charlotte as very small children. Many left for school if they didn't attend UNCC but have now moved back to the area.

 

What does this tell me?

1. Charlotte is attracting young talent from across the country. This group may not have deep ties to the region, but it's hard to argue with the concentration and variety of good-paying jobs centered here. If I meet someone new I am as likely to hear 'NY', 'MI', 'OH', or 'VA' as I am to hear 'NC' as to where they grew up.

2. Charlotte is pulling a large amount of intellectual talent from the rest of the state and nearby states. After Raleigh, Charlotte is one of the top destinations for UNC/State grads and attracts hundreds and thousands of Clemson, VT, UVA, USC, and GT grads as well. App, UNCC, UNCW, Wofford, Wake, UGA are other schools I hear quite often. Noticeably absent from this list is Duke.

3. Many in Charlotte leave for school. UNCC is a great option for many, but the lack of additional options is likely hurting us. Luckily I know many that have since moved back after school since the job market is very attractive for them.

4. North Carolina is attracting a ridiculous amount of Middle Class families. The fact that less than 20% of the 50 I referenced were born in this state says a lot about relocation and broad migration patterns to the region, at least within the Middle Class.

[KJHburg]

Charlotte is #5 fastest growing cities in pure numerical terms from 2017 to 2018 according to the US Census Bureau.  I can't find a NC based story on this but here is a story and chart from San Antonio.

https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/New-Braunfels-San-Antonio-sustain-their-13876892.php

[Crucial_Infra]

Charlotte passed Indianapolis to become the 16th most populous U.S. city. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article230699979.html

Looks like Charlotte might overtake San Francisco to move into 15th place soon but hard to see getting much higher than that (though Columbus and Jacksonville are vulnerable). More here from the census press release... 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/subcounty-population-estimates.html

Edited May 23, 2019 by Crucial_Infra

[Temeteron]

On 5/23/2019 at 11:56 AM, Crucial_Infra said:

Charlotte passed Indianapolis to become the 16th most populous U.S. city. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article230699979.html

Looks like Charlotte might overtake San Francisco to move into 15th place soon but hard to see getting much higher than that (though Columbus and Jacksonville are vulnerable). More here from the census press release... 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/subcounty-population-estimates.html

Jacksonville shouldn’t even be on there.  Their square miles are over twice as much.  Then again it can be said that it’s an unfair comparison about ours with other cities that have bigger metros but smaller city propers like Atlanta, St. Louis, Denver and Seattle.  

[Havemercy]

6 hours ago, Temeteron said:

Jacksonville shouldn’t even be on there.  Their square miles are over twice as much.  Then again it can be said that it’s an unfair comparison about ours with other cities that have bigger metros but smaller city propers like Atlanta, St. Louis, Denver and Seattle.  

Jacksonville's city population is inflated due to it being a consolidated city-county.  The numbers reflect almost the entire population of Duval county.  Indianapolis is a consolidated city-county as well, but their county (Marion) land area is much smaller than Duval.  Jacksonville's population density is half that of Indianapolis and Charlotte. 

[tozmervo]

1 hour ago, Havemercy said:

Jacksonville's city population is inflated due to it being a consolidated city-county.  The numbers reflect almost the entire population of Duval county.  Indianapolis is a consolidated city-county as well, but their county (Marion) land area is much smaller than Duval.  Jacksonville's population density is half that of Indianapolis and Charlotte. 

Same with Nashville-Davidson County. It "inflates" Nashville's size to 526 square miles, which is just 20 shy of the size of  Mecklenburg County. City pops are practically useless.

[go_vertical]

The city/county size is somewhere around 800 square miles and a HUGE portion of that is rural and surburban. 

[QCxpat]

According to US Census Bureau estimates, there were 36 municipalities in the United States with a population of at least 500,000 as of July 1, 2018.

Of those, the 5 cities with the highest percent population increase from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018, were:

1.  Seattle                 +22.39%               744,955

2.  Austin                  +22.00%               964,254

3.  Ft. Worth           +20.75%               895,008

4.  Denver                +19.38%               716,492

5.  Charlotte           +19.29%                872,498

3 of the 36 municipalities with over 500,000 population in 2018 experienced a pop. decline from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.  They were:

1.  Detroit                   -5.76%               672,662

2.  Baltimore             -2.97%               602,495

3.  Milwaukee           -0.47%               592,025

Note - The Census Bureau's est. pop. for each of the above cities as of 07/01/2018 appears at the end of each line.

Link;  https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-total-cities-and-towns.html#tables

Edited May 29, 2019 by QCxpat
correct verb tense

[KJHburg]

Concord is one of the fastest growing cities around the Charlotte region now up to 94,130 people.   

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2019/05/29/these-local-cities-towns-are-fueling-the-charlotte.html

[Hushpuppy321]

On 5/23/2019 at 11:56 AM, Crucial_Infra said:

Charlotte passed Indianapolis to become the 16th most populous U.S. city. 

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article230699979.html

Looks like Charlotte might overtake San Francisco to move into 15th place soon but hard to see getting much higher than that (though Columbus and Jacksonville are vulnerable). More here from the census press release... 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/subcounty-population-estimates.html

San Francisco will be toast within the next year (2020 estimate release for 2019 Population) with the way Charlotte is growing.   Columbus Ohio will be surpassed as well but not until the 2022 or 2023 timeframe I believe.   Jacksonville FL will also be surpassed by Charlotte but I honestly don’t think that’ll happen until around 2026/2027.  Florida cities are having strong growth across the board.

BTW - Anyone notice the Ft. Worth jump to 13th?  They used to be 16th & CLT 17th in Population not too long ago.  Man - Dont mess with Texas!

[KJHburg]

36 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

San Francisco will be toast within the next year (2020 estimate release for 2019 Population) with the way Charlotte is growing.   Columbus Ohio will be surpassed as well but not until the 2022 or 2023 timeframe I believe.   Jacksonville FL will also be surpassed by Charlotte but I honestly don’t think that’ll happen until around 2026/2027.  Florida cities are having strong growth across the board.

BTW - Anyone notice the Ft. Worth jump to 13th?  They used to be 16th & CLT 17th in Population not too long ago.  Man - Dont mess with Texas!

I agree especially with San Fran.   As for Fort Worth they can still annex land where as Dallas is more hemmed in by other cities and towns.  

Charlotte still has a lot more land to annex before becoming landlocked like many other cities and of course increasing density in the city core. 

[JRNYP2C]

23 hours ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

San Francisco will be toast within the next year (2020 estimate release for 2019 Population) with the way Charlotte is growing.   Columbus Ohio will be surpassed as well but not until the 2022 or 2023 timeframe I believe.   Jacksonville FL will also be surpassed by Charlotte but I honestly don’t think that’ll happen until around 2026/2027.  Florida cities are having strong growth across the board.

BTW - Anyone notice the Ft. Worth jump to 13th?  They used to be 16th & CLT 17th in Population not too long ago.  Man - Dont mess with Texas!

I was just talking with a co-worker in SF, who said that one of her employees is leaving the Greater Bay area for (wait for it) Pittsburgh - my old hometown.  When i caught my breath and asked why, she said that outside of being closer to family in Ohio, the cost of living was one of the main causes.  I have heard about this for a long time, and a long time ago experienced how expensive this city was - compared to other cities like LA or NYC.  It is amazing how anyone can afford to live in California at all anymore!

[southernnorthcarolina]

I'm always skeptical about population stats on cities (incorporated areas), because annexation policies and possibilities vary wildly.  Until a few years ago, Charlotte could annex territory without the approval of those being annexed, provided certain density standards were met, and provided Charlotte committed to providing the usual city services.  But no more -- involuntary annexation is now over for Charlotte, as it has long been for most of the rest of the country.

County population trends, and metro area population trends, provide more realistic information.

[videtur quam contuor]

This is state numbers, not city specific, but a way to see how migration patterns affect states financially. David Tepper makes a cameo appearance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/migration-s-biggest-loser-is-connecticut-as-florida-profits?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3kP_eF2M4rCO0AVwvB65cZ3mvEekaOuETs4pB8ny2xd0YyyuzQdcjCG5w

[KJHburg]

Major cities are slowing in their population growth and this includes Charlotte according this Brookings article.  My thought is housing is extremely higher priced intown in Charlotte versus the suburbs now. Most of the price decreases on homes i see are intown homes and properties and this is not as prevalent in the suburbs and the outer counties.  

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/05/24/big-city-growth-stalls-further-as-the-suburbs-make-a-comeback/

[videtur quam contuor]

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-migration-of-millennials-and-seniors-has-shifted-since-the-great-recession/

 

May have posted this earlier but was referenced online today elsewhere. Charlotte one of top spots for 25-34 cohort and also gaining in 55+ cohort.

[KJHburg]

7 hours ago, tarhoosier said:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-migration-of-millennials-and-seniors-has-shifted-since-the-great-recession/

 

May have posted this earlier but was referenced online today elsewhere. Charlotte one of top spots for 25-34 cohort and also gaining in 55+ cohort.

this is great Charlotte is the ONLY city in the southeast attracting over 7000 millenials and that includes much larger Miami Dade and Atlanta.  

Plus Charlotte is attracting seniors too which is good and that is evidenced all around the city especially in surrounding counties like Lincoln (Trilogy) Mecklenburg various places but Cresswind a big development, York with Sun City Carolina Orchards, Lancaster with Sun City Carolina Lakes and many age targeted communities large and small all over.  

[U_R_]

I think it'll be interresting to see how Gen Z (is that what they're called now)  affects this. It'll also be interresting to see their similarities and differences to the "famous" Millenials.

[A2.]

On 5/30/2019 at 6:16 PM, JRNYP2C said:

I was just talking with a co-worker in SF, who said that one of her employees is leaving the Greater Bay area for (wait for it) Pittsburgh - my old hometown.  When i caught my breath and asked why, she said that outside of being closer to family in Ohio, the cost of living was one of the main causes.  I have heard about this for a long time, and a long time ago experienced how expensive this city was - compared to other cities like LA or NYC.  It is amazing how anyone can afford to live in California at all anymore!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2019-05-10/san-francisco-is-home-to-the-worlds-most-billionaires-per-capita%3fcontext=amp

“While New York City had the highest number of billionaires living within its city limits, San Francisco has "significantly more billionaires per inhabitant than any other top city – with one billionaire for approximately every 11,600 residents," according to a report by Wealth-X, a financial research firm.

San Francisco  is the one of the most bifurcated cities in the world with probably the most troubling state of wealth inequality found anywhere. While home to the most billionaires in the world (per capita), it houses some of the most destitute. Truly a tough city to find affordable housing options if your middle class. I love the city and it’s urban fabric, but have a high disdain for what it’s become: a city of haves and have nots with nothing in between. Sadly many of the larger cities in the world seem to be this way. For now there are some seriously beautiful cities that have a more balanced distribution of wealth (including Pittsburgh, which you mentioned your friend moving to).

I am grateful  that Charlotte still is one of many cities that still has options for most all classes of people along the income spectrum. Although with the ever rising cost of housing, and limited affordable housing stock, it to is becoming difficult for some to enjoy the joys of home ownership, especially near the city center. 

Hopefully we can stay ahead of things by incorporating more affordable housing, and by also continuing to diversify our economy. More jobs that are not solely based on Banking and Finance will add to us being a city offering many people multiple avenues in which to prosper. 

A2

Edited August 28, 2019 by A2.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Big Radius Tool

Cool tool to gather data about population and demographics within a radius of a specific location.   It's interesting to note that there are more people within a 150 mile radius of Charlotte than there is of 150 miles of Dallas.    Within a 150 miles radius of Charlotte, there is about as many people as there is within 150 mile radius of Atlanta.  There are 35 million people within a 150 mile radius of Hartford, but only 15 million within a 150 mile radius of Boston (no, the Atlantic Ocean isn't populated).

 

[KJHburg]

NC population trends and where people are moving from.  This has a good graphic of where new residents are coming from to NC.

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2019/10/09/florida-new-york-among-top-states-where-ncs-new.html

[QCxpat]

Q.   What is the likelihood that Charlotte's population could surpass that of San Francisco by 2020?

A.   Using either the 5 year population growth averages for San Francisco and Charlotte, or the most recent 1 year growth / decline trends, Charlotte's population  should surpass San Francisco's by midyear 2020.  

 

The most recent 5 year U.S. Census Bureau estimates for San Francisco are as follows:

2013   -   841,270   -    Base year

2014   -   853,258   -    1 year increase =  11,988

2015   -   866,320    -   1 year increase =  13,062  

2016   -   876,103     -  1 year increase =    9,783

2017   -   884,363     -  1 year increase =    8,260

2018   -  883,305     -   1 year decrease =  1,058 

San Francisco's 5 year gain =  42,035 total divided by 5 years =  8,407 average growth over 5 year period

 

The most recent 5 year U.S. Census Bureau estimates for Charlotte are as follows:

2013   -   792,874        Base year 

2014   -   808,320   -   1 year increase =  15,446

2015   -   826,710    -  1 year increase =  18,390   

2016   -   843,484   -   1 year increase =  16,774

2017   -   859,035   -   1 year increase =  15,551

2018   -   872,498   -   1 year increase =  13,463

Charlotte's 5 year gain =  79,624  total divided by 5 years =  15,925 average growth over 5 year period 

 

Projections based on 5 year growth averages for San Francisco and Charlotte

San Francisco projections:

2019   -   891,712

2020   -   900,119

Charlotte projections:

2019   -   888,423

2020   -   904,348

 

Comparing the 2 cities 5 year growth averages, Charlotte should have approximately 4,229 more residents than San Francisco by midyear 2020.

 

If one assumes that the most recent U.S. Census Bureau's single year est. decrease for San Francisco (-1,058) and est. increase for Charlotte (+13,463) are better predictors of future pop. growth / decline trends, then the projections would be as follows:

San Francisco projections:

2019   -   882,247

2020   -   881,189 

Charlotte projections:

2019   -   885,961

2020   -   899,424

Based on the most recent 1 year growth / decline trends, Charlotte should have approximately 18,235 more residents than San Francisco by midyear 2020.

 

WorldPopulationReview.com estimates that San Francisco's population has fallen for 2 years running and that the 2019 estimated pop. is 879,166.   If this is a reliable estimate, then Charlotte's 2019 population, using either the 5 year growth average (888,423) or the most recent single year trend line (885,961), has already surpassed that of San Francisco.

 

Links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlotte,_North_Carolina

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco

http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/ca/san-francisco-county-population/

http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/charlotte-population/

 

[Hushpuppy321]

Very interesting Statistics indeed!  What I’m much looking forward too (although I know it’ll be much more difficult) is Charlotte surpassing Jacksonville in order to have the Southeast Bragging Rights of largest city.   Hopefully our Uptown Skyline would be even more impressive by the time we catch Jacksonville in next 7 years

[urbanlover568]

The City of Charlotte is 6.5 times bigger than San Francisco in area. Charlotte is massive for a city in area, that's why the city population figures are extraordinary. 

 

MSA populations:

San Francisco (6,410 km² ): 4,729,484    

Charlotte (8,160 km²): 2,569,213