Charlotte area population statistics

[Rufus]

14 hours ago, Windsurfer said:

Quality of life in a place like Greenville, SC,  San Luis Obispo, or even Santa Barbara is so easy and 'fun'.

Well, I'd say the three places you mentioned are in the sweet spot between major urban centers that allow them to be somewhat successful. Also, I think the planning in the latter two makes it feel just enough urban and with just enough resources to not require living in a large urban area. Could you say the same thing about a place like Waco, TX, Billings, MT, or Springfield, MO? 

I think it really comes down to the planning in those towns and their relative site and situation compared to larger urban centers. 

Again, I am sure the QoL you speak of, is varied by location, but just wanted to offer that retort to your post. 

[deleted account]

14 hours ago, Windsurfer said:

Quality of life in a place like Greenville, SC,  San Luis Obispo, or even Santa Barbara is so easy and 'fun'.

I don't entirely agree with your broader point but SLO is my favorite place in the WORLD (and SB is also awesome).  For those who haven't visited the Central Coast of California, I highly recommend. Greenville is a nice medium sized southern city but I prefer Charlotte (partly based on size and all that comes with it).  

[Windsurfer]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

Well, I'd say the three places you mentioned are in the sweet spot between major urban centers that allow them to be somewhat successful. Also, I think the planning in the latter two makes it feel just enough urban and with just enough resources to not require living in a large urban area. Could you say the same thing about a place like Waco, TX, Billings, MT, or Springfield, MO? 

I think it really comes down to the planning in those towns and their relative site and situation compared to larger urban centers. 

Again, I am sure the QoL you speak of, is varied by location, but just wanted to offer that retort to your post. 

Absolutely agree.  Planning and smart growth is what we should strive for.  Quality over quantity.  Turning into a mega-populated center just for the sake of being huge doesn't really turn out well in the end.  

[Nick2]

19 hours ago, Windsurfer said:

I know I'm farting in the wind with the crowd, but really, I still don't understand what's so great about mega population centers.  Bad air, expensive, confining if you like the outdoors, aggressive drivers, on and on... I've lived in Sao Paulo, Santiago, London, and have relatives in LA.  I just don't get why becoming another one of those is a good thing. Sorry to be a wet blanket.  Quality of life in a place like Greenville, SC,  San Luis Obispo, or even Santa Barbara is so easy and 'fun'.

There isn't much great about mega regions in a lot of ways but it's just fun to look forward to the exciting growth and development and getting hyped about the future especially living in the center of an emerging one.

[JacksonH]

On 12/30/2021 at 6:04 PM, Windsurfer said:

I know I'm farting in the wind with the crowd, but really, I still don't understand what's so great about mega population centers.  Bad air, expensive, confining if you like the outdoors, aggressive drivers, on and on... I've lived in Sao Paulo, Santiago, London, and have relatives in LA.  I just don't get why becoming another one of those is a good thing. Sorry to be a wet blanket.  Quality of life in a place like Greenville, SC,  San Luis Obispo, or even Santa Barbara is so easy and 'fun'.

Funny you mention San Luis Obispo.  A number of years ago I was driving from San Francisco to San Diego and stopped in downtown San Luis Obispo for lunch and, upon seeing it, I thought it would be an ideal place to retire.  It's close to the ocean, has a thriving and attractive downtown, and the cost of living is a fraction of what it costs in the major metros.

Edited January 1, 2022 by JacksonH

[Windsurfer]

3 hours ago, JacksonH said:

Funny you mention San Luis Obispo.  A number of years ago I was driving from San Francisco to San Diego and stopped in downtown San Luis Obispo for lunch and, upon seeing it, I thought it would be an ideal place to retire.  It's close to the ocean, has a thriving and attractive downtown, and the cost of living is a fraction of what it costs in the major metros.

I bet I can throw out many more names along the West Coast you can appreciate....  This country has many.  Folks get excited about mega cities, but I'm now retired, living between a small town in Oregon and Davidson, where I grew up more or less. I think we have one lawyer in this town (In Oregon) Everything is done on the honor system, including parking. It's unbelievably friendly.  I just can't get excited in the same way some do at growth for the sake of growth. Yes, I own some land near Davidson, and yes I'm going to cash in on it one day so I'm going to 'enjoy' the growth in the area. But, if I had my choice, I'd retire there, only it's gotten way too stressful these days, not to mention depressing seeing the bulldozers out.

[JacksonH]

49 minutes ago, Windsurfer said:

I bet I can throw out many more names along the West Coast you can appreciate....  This country has many.  Folks get excited about mega cities, but I'm now retired, living between a small town in Oregon and Davidson, where I grew up more or less. I think we have one lawyer in this town (In Oregon) Everything is done on the honor system, including parking. It's unbelievably friendly.  I just can't get excited in the same way some do at growth for the sake of growth. Yes, I own some land near Davidson, and yes I'm going to cash in on it one day so I'm going to 'enjoy' the growth in the area. But, if I had my choice, I'd retire there, only it's gotten way too stressful these days, not to mention depressing seeing the bulldozers out.

Haha, you and I think alike.  Your town sounds like a NW Mayberry.  I'm getting close to retirement.   I'm in SoCal now but would like to spend my retirement between here and the Charlotte area, and specifically Davidson (I like old college towns), but only as long as Davidson is able to prevent having its soul stolen by Charlotte.

That said, I do like the city, but only if it's a functional city with walkable neighborhoods where you know people in your neighborhood and know the mom and pop retailers and they know you.

[Skyybutter]

On 1/1/2022 at 8:41 PM, JacksonH said:

Haha, you and I think alike.  Your town sounds like a NW Mayberry.  I'm getting close to retirement.   I'm in SoCal now but would like to spend my retirement between here and the Charlotte area, and specifically Davidson (I like old college towns), but only as long as Davidson is able to prevent having its soul stolen by Charlotte.

That said, I do like the city, but only if it's a functional city with walkable neighborhoods where you know people in your neighborhood and know the mom and pop retailers and they know you.

New Hope PA  is the perfect small town.  45mins from CC Philly. NYC is served by Coach busses for those who work in Manhattan. (1.5hr tops) And Trenton is just 20mins for rail to Penn Station.

   New Hope is a bit like Davidson without the University.  Though the local HS feels like a college campus. 

   Miss it terribly. 

[Skyybutter]

On 12/29/2021 at 5:57 PM, Nick2 said:

What's crazy to me is that by 2050, it's not unreasonable to think that NC and GA could be the fifth and sixth largest states by population likely passing Illinois and Pennsylvania.

People always mention how huge California is by population but if you copied it on the east coast from central Florida to central Virginia (basically excluding the NOVA area and Miami), there wouldn't be much difference in population.

The last part about CA is so true. And the cities that would be in a east cost type CA state.... wow

[Nick2]

20 hours ago, Skyybutter said:

The last part about CA is so true. And the cities that would be in a east cost type CA state.... wow

Tampa Bay, Orlando, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Charlotte, the triad, the triangle, Richmond, Hampton roads. Not to mention the dozens of mid sized cities like Columbia, Augusta, Tallahassee, or Fayetteville and the entire Atlantic coast. It would be much more evenly distributed but also much more dense overall. Lack or deserts and massive mountains and all that

[QCxpat]

Population Projections by the NC Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM),  released 02/17/2022

North Carolina’s Population to Reach 13.8 Million People by 2050

"Given current trends, the State Demographer’s latest population projections show an increase of 3.4 million people over the next 30 years. This is an increase of 32% over the estimated 10.4 million living in North Carolina as of July 1, 2020."

Expect to See Continued Growth in Major Urban Counties 

"Wake County’s population ranked first in the state in 2020, followed by Mecklenburg County.  These population projections show that these ranks will remain the same in 2050. However, several fast-growing counties are predicted to move up in the rank of the most populated counties by 2050."  

"By 2050, Durham, Union, and Cabarrus County are predicted to be the 5th, 6th, and 7th most populated counties, up from 6th, 8th, and 10th in 2020, respectively. Between 2010 and 2020, the majority of North Carolina’s 100 counties experienced population decrease. These population projections predict that 44 counties will experience population loss."  

 

10  Most Populous Counties in N.C. in 2050 (est. as of 07/2050)

1.  Wake County (Raleigh / Cary)  -  1,911,091

2.  Mecklenburg County (Charlotte)  -  1,737,661

3.  Guilford County (Greensboro / High Point)  -  701,109

4.  Forsyth County (Winston-Salem)  -  488,592

5.  Durham County  (Durham)  -  469,754

6.  Union County (Monroe) -  420,082

7.  Cabarrus County (Concord)  -  370,497

8.  Buncombe County (Asheville)  -  364,261

9.  Johnston County (Smithfield, metro Raleigh)  -  363,827

10.  Cumberland County (Fayetteville)  -  334,959

State of North Carolina (est. as of 07/2050)  -  13,824,955

 

Links:  https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/population-demographics/state-demographer/countystate-population-projections

https://www.osbm.nc.gov/blog/2022/02/17/population-projections-provide-glimpse-our-future

https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/02/22/latest-population-projections-for-nc-and-counties/

Edited February 23, 2022 by QCxpat

[KJHburg]

quite interesting that 2 suburban Charlotte counties are zooming upward Cabarrus and Union bigger than Buncombe home of Asheville.  But honestly Johnston County SE of Raleigh and Wake county is the most surprising as this is the fastest growing county in the state now but 10-15 years was very rural and full of tobacco fields. 

[KJHburg]

California exodus in one graphic and NC gets a good number 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496512796942602249

 

[LKN704]

12 hours ago, KJHburg said:

California exodus in one graphic and NC gets a good number 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1496512796942602249

 

The great California exodus is largely overblown and has been disproven at this point:

-https://www.capolicylab.org/calexodus-are-people-leaving-california/

-https://www.capolicylab.org/news/new-research-people-are-leaving-sf-but-not-california/

-https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalExodus-Are-People-Leaving-California.pdf

[KJHburg]

Believe what you want.

here is a  story this week from the San Fran Biz Times

""In a new study on migration out of California, 39% of CEOs and business owners surveyed said they are giving some or serious consideration to moving their companies out of the state, while another 18% said they would if they could.

The authors of "Restoring the California Dream," Chapman University professors Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky, were featured on a webinar on the topic hosted by the Bay Area Council Thursday.

“I think the state is minimizing the degree of competition from not only other countries but from other parts of the U.S.,” said Kotkin, a professor of urban studies. He pointed to Texas and Ohio as two examples of states winning business from California. “The public is increasingly dissatisfied, all the poll data will tell you that. The economy is much too dependent on tech, other sectors are weaker and this could become a real problem if the IPOs and the tech stocks don’t do so great this year.

“A lot of the media and the administration doesn’t think there’s an exodus from California,” Kotkin said. “Well, it’s not like the Hebrews leaving Goshen, but 2.4 million people net out in 20 years is not insignificant.”

That doesn't take into account movement within the state. One San Diego participant in the Bay Area Council’s webinar Thursday said their city is suffering from home prices going through the roof because people are moving there from San Francisco. The pain of soaring home prices is also frequently heard from long-time residents of newly popular destinations for the Bay Area exodus, such as Boise, Idaho.

The ability to buy homes is a key driver in migration out of California, the study found. 

“If you look at who’s leaving, this is our seed corn,” said Marshall Toplansky, a clinical assistant professor of management science at Chapman University. “This is the group that is going to be creating wealth that will sustain California for the next couple of generations.”

Or they would be if they weren’t heading to Texas and elsewhere to buy homes, raise families and create that wealth. For example, Charles Schwab moved its longtime San Francisco headquarters to Texas last year, along with Tesla.

“That does not bode well for California's next generation,” Toplansky said. “California has created more billionaires than any other place, but average people are finding it very, very difficult to live here.” 

California lawmakers are again considering a wealth tax on the state’s millionaires and billionaires, which will go before voters if it’s passed by two-third majorities in both houses of the California legislature.

Jennifer Hernandez, partner with Holland & Knight, criticizes key environmental legislation such as the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, referring to it as “green Jim Crow." 

“Frankly, I think it is a very, very politically effective camouflage for what amounts to keeping those people who aren’t already here out — make it just too expensive. And make it particularly too expensive for those not in the professional class,” Hernandez said of the effect CEQA litigation has in hindering housing construction, especially in wealthier neighborhoods. Hernandez is a scheduled speaker at the San Francisco Business Times upcoming event, Housing the Middle, being held March 18 in San Francisco.

Keith Knopf, CEO of West Sacramento-based grocer Raley’s, provided a firsthand look at how California’s costs and regulations stifle investment and job creation in Northern California versus its operations in Arizona and Nevada. Knopf said Raley’s generates $3 billion in annual revenue in the region, where it employs about 10,000 people and makes an annual profit of about $65 million. But of the company’s $300 million in capital investments made over the past couple years, $270 million went to Arizona and Nevada.

“The incremental cost when you set aside land, labor, utilities and taxes to do business in California, in the footprint I just described, is an incremental $75 million to do the exact same revenue in the same businesses in Arizona or Nevada,” Knopf said. “The capital and deployment out of state isn’t because the returns are greater there. It’s because it’s easier and more efficient to deploy there.”

Knopf pointed to CEQA litigation as a key factor in making it more expensive and time-consuming to open a new store in Northern California, meaning jobs aren’t created to staff those new locations during the years of CEQA litigation moving through the courts.

“The hidden cost of doing business in California really falls to people who are the wage earners. I think that’s lost in the conversation,” Knopf said. 

Among the concluding comments posted in the chat room at the Bay Area Council’s webinar, one simply said: “Thank you for voicing publicly what many discuss in private.”""

the middle class is moving out big time  yes billionaires and other multi millionaires continue to live there.  But facts are facts they are losing population why is that? 

 

[LKN704]

30 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Believe what you want.

here is a  story this week from the San Fran Biz Times

""In a new study on migration out of California, 39% of CEOs and business owners surveyed said they are giving some or serious consideration to moving their companies out of the state, while another 18% said they would if they could.

The authors of "Restoring the California Dream," Chapman University professors Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky, were featured on a webinar on the topic hosted by the Bay Area Council Thursday.

“I think the state is minimizing the degree of competition from not only other countries but from other parts of the U.S.,” said Kotkin, a professor of urban studies. He pointed to Texas and Ohio as two examples of states winning business from California. “The public is increasingly dissatisfied, all the poll data will tell you that. The economy is much too dependent on tech, other sectors are weaker and this could become a real problem if the IPOs and the tech stocks don’t do so great this year.

“A lot of the media and the administration doesn’t think there’s an exodus from California,” Kotkin said. “Well, it’s not like the Hebrews leaving Goshen, but 2.4 million people net out in 20 years is not insignificant.”

That doesn't take into account movement within the state. One San Diego participant in the Bay Area Council’s webinar Thursday said their city is suffering from home prices going through the roof because people are moving there from San Francisco. The pain of soaring home prices is also frequently heard from long-time residents of newly popular destinations for the Bay Area exodus, such as Boise, Idaho.

The ability to buy homes is a key driver in migration out of California, the study found. 

“If you look at who’s leaving, this is our seed corn,” said Marshall Toplansky, a clinical assistant professor of management science at Chapman University. “This is the group that is going to be creating wealth that will sustain California for the next couple of generations.”

Or they would be if they weren’t heading to Texas and elsewhere to buy homes, raise families and create that wealth. For example, Charles Schwab moved its longtime San Francisco headquarters to Texas last year, along with Tesla.

“That does not bode well for California's next generation,” Toplansky said. “California has created more billionaires than any other place, but average people are finding it very, very difficult to live here.” 

California lawmakers are again considering a wealth tax on the state’s millionaires and billionaires, which will go before voters if it’s passed by two-third majorities in both houses of the California legislature.

Jennifer Hernandez, partner with Holland & Knight, criticizes key environmental legislation such as the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, referring to it as “green Jim Crow." 

“Frankly, I think it is a very, very politically effective camouflage for what amounts to keeping those people who aren’t already here out — make it just too expensive. And make it particularly too expensive for those not in the professional class,” Hernandez said of the effect CEQA litigation has in hindering housing construction, especially in wealthier neighborhoods. Hernandez is a scheduled speaker at the San Francisco Business Times upcoming event, Housing the Middle, being held March 18 in San Francisco.

Keith Knopf, CEO of West Sacramento-based grocer Raley’s, provided a firsthand look at how California’s costs and regulations stifle investment and job creation in Northern California versus its operations in Arizona and Nevada. Knopf said Raley’s generates $3 billion in annual revenue in the region, where it employs about 10,000 people and makes an annual profit of about $65 million. But of the company’s $300 million in capital investments made over the past couple years, $270 million went to Arizona and Nevada.

“The incremental cost when you set aside land, labor, utilities and taxes to do business in California, in the footprint I just described, is an incremental $75 million to do the exact same revenue in the same businesses in Arizona or Nevada,” Knopf said. “The capital and deployment out of state isn’t because the returns are greater there. It’s because it’s easier and more efficient to deploy there.”

Knopf pointed to CEQA litigation as a key factor in making it more expensive and time-consuming to open a new store in Northern California, meaning jobs aren’t created to staff those new locations during the years of CEQA litigation moving through the courts.

“The hidden cost of doing business in California really falls to people who are the wage earners. I think that’s lost in the conversation,” Knopf said. 

Among the concluding comments posted in the chat room at the Bay Area Council’s webinar, one simply said: “Thank you for voicing publicly what many discuss in private.”""

the middle class is moving out big time  yes billionaires and other multi millionaires continue to live there.  But facts are facts they are losing population why is that? 

 

Believe what I want...did you even read any of the studies I posted?

Here are some more:

-https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/uc-san-diego-survey-majority-of-californians-still-believe-the-state-is-golden

-https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/uc-san-diego-california-exodus-google-trends.pdf

-https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/uc-san-diego-california-exodus-report.pdf

The above study actually demonstrated that those considering a move out of California actually declined from 2019 to 2021. 

One thing the above study also demonstrated (that I had never given consideration to before) was how partisan thoughts about leaving California were. The study found that the majority of Democrats in the state, as well as those who ideologically identified as liberal or moderate, stated that they had no plans to leave the state, where as a majority of those who were Republican or identified as conservative stated that they were considering leaving California. Geographically speaking, the areas of the state where those surveyed showed the highest interest in leaving were the conservative Central Valley and counties north of the Bay Area. The counties north of the Bay Area are extremely conservative, and the majority of these counties voted for Trump over Clinton in the 2016 election. Some of these counties (most notably Siskiyou, Modoc, Glenn, Tehama, Yuba, Lake, and Lassen) have all either passed or brought up resolutions to leave the state of California and form their own new state (the state of Jefferson). 

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-studies-contrary-popular-belief-residents-are-not-fleeing-california

From the article:

• The majority of Californians still believe in the “California Dream.”
• Residents are moving out of state, but not at unusual rates.  
• There is no evidence of “millionaire flight” from California.
• California’s economy attracts as much venture capital as all other states combined.

It's important to note that external migration out of California isn't the primary cause of the state's population loss. 

The state's main source of population growth over the past decade is largely attributed to immigration, which was essentially cut off during the majority of 2020. Normally, California receives 150,000 immigrants from abroad each year…in 2020 the number was only 29,000. 

That, coupled with a lower than average birth rate (state's average is 420k births annually, COVID-induced estimate is 330k), combined with 55k+ covid deaths, did more to the state's overall population loss than external migration. 

I don't disagree with the notion that middle-class families in California are feeling squeezed and are moving elsewhere in search of more affordable housing, but I don't agree with the claim that there is some mass exodus occurring,  but I digress. 

[kermit]

On 2/23/2022 at 9:02 AM, QCxpat said:

Population Projections by the NC Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM),  released 02/17/2022

North Carolina’s Population to Reach 13.8 Million People by 2050

"Given current trends, the State Demographer’s latest population projections show an increase of 3.4 million people over the next 30 years. This is an increase of 32% over the estimated 10.4 million living in North Carolina as of July 1, 2020."

Expect to See Continued Growth in Major Urban Counties 

"Wake County’s population ranked first in the state in 2020, followed by Mecklenburg County.  These population projections show that these ranks will remain the same in 2050. However, several fast-growing counties are predicted to move up in the rank of the most populated counties by 2050."  

"By 2050, Durham, Union, and Cabarrus County are predicted to be the 5th, 6th, and 7th most populated counties, up from 6th, 8th, and 10th in 2020, respectively. Between 2010 and 2020, the majority of North Carolina’s 100 counties experienced population decrease. These population projections predict that 44 counties will experience population loss."  

 

10  Most Populous Counties in N.C. in 2050 (est. as of 07/2050)

1.  Wake County (Raleigh / Cary)  -  1,911,091

2.  Mecklenburg County (Charlotte)  -  1,737,661

3.  Guilford County (Greensboro / High Point)  -  701,109

4.  Forsyth County (Winston-Salem)  -  488,592

5.  Durham County  (Durham)  -  469,754

6.  Union County (Monroe) -  420,082

7.  Cabarrus County (Concord)  -  370,497

8.  Buncombe County (Asheville)  -  364,261

9.  Johnston County (Smithfield, metro Raleigh)  -  363,827

10.  Cumberland County (Fayetteville)  -  334,959

State of North Carolina (est. as of 07/2050)  -  13,824,955

 

Links:  https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures/population-demographics/state-demographer/countystate-population-projections

https://www.osbm.nc.gov/blog/2022/02/17/population-projections-provide-glimpse-our-future

https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/02/22/latest-population-projections-for-nc-and-counties/

I have been working with OSBM projections for more than 20 years. My experience has been that their estimation models have always underestimated growth in Charlotte and Raleigh and also tend to be overly optimistic about rural decline (they were very late to acknowledge decline as a trend and the tend to underestimate the amount of decline). I think their mapping category of “population loss” was selected to allow them to underplay the magnitude of rural decline. I am not sure I would say their predictions are politically-driven, but I think their estimation models rely on historic trends a bit too much.

Edited February 26, 2022 by kermit

[kermit]

On 2/26/2022 at 1:10 PM, LKN704 said:

Believe what I want...did you even read any of the studies I posted?

Here are some more:

-https://ucsdnews.ucsd.edu/pressrelease/uc-san-diego-survey-majority-of-californians-still-believe-the-state-is-golden

-https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/uc-san-diego-california-exodus-google-trends.pdf

-https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/sites/default/files/uc-san-diego-california-exodus-report.pdf

The above study actually demonstrated that those considering a move out of California actually declined from 2019 to 2021. 

One thing the above study also demonstrated (that I had never given consideration to before) was how partisan thoughts about leaving California were. The study found that the majority of Democrats in the state, as well as those who ideologically identified as liberal or moderate, stated that they had no plans to leave the state, where as a majority of those who were Republican or identified as conservative stated that they were considering leaving California. Geographically speaking, the areas of the state where those surveyed showed the highest interest in leaving were the conservative Central Valley and counties north of the Bay Area. The counties north of the Bay Area are extremely conservative, and the majority of these counties voted for Trump over Clinton in the 2016 election. Some of these counties (most notably Siskiyou, Modoc, Glenn, Tehama, Yuba, Lake, and Lassen) have all either passed or brought up resolutions to leave the state of California and form their own new state (the state of Jefferson). 

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-studies-contrary-popular-belief-residents-are-not-fleeing-california

From the article:

• The majority of Californians still believe in the “California Dream.”
• Residents are moving out of state, but not at unusual rates.  
• There is no evidence of “millionaire flight” from California.
• California’s economy attracts as much venture capital as all other states combined.

It's important to note that external migration out of California isn't the primary cause of the state's population loss. 

The state's main source of population growth over the past decade is largely attributed to immigration, which was essentially cut off during the majority of 2020. Normally, California receives 150,000 immigrants from abroad each year…in 2020 the number was only 29,000. 

That, coupled with a lower than average birth rate (state's average is 420k births annually, COVID-induced estimate is 330k), combined with 55k+ covid deaths, did more to the state's overall population loss than external migration. 

I don't disagree with the notion that middle-class families in California are feeling squeezed and are moving elsewhere in search of more affordable housing, but I don't agree with the claim that there is some mass exodus occurring,  but I digress. 

This is an excellent post, it really irks me when people let partisan views color their perception of places. I would add to your excellent explanation of population trends that the California economy (as measured by total output) has far outperformed the NC economy despite NC's much higher population growth rates. Their are certainly firms that are looking to leave California, but on net, the state's economy continues to grow. There is certainly lots about California that is undesirable to me, but regardless how I feel about the place, the state is the undisputed economic engine of the nation and showing no signs of decline (California is nearly 14% of US GDP).

Partisan views frequently color our perceptions of places. The right continues to rant about violence in Chicago, despite the fact that quite a few cities in more conservative states have higher homicide rates. Cities with higher rates of homicide than Chicago include: Montgomery, Birmingham, Little Rock, Indianapolis, Tuscaloosa, Columbus (GA), Cincinnati, Columbia (SC), North Charleston, Memphis, Kansas City, Dayton and St. Louis (currently the highest homicide rate in the US). 

Portions of Southside Chicago are undeniably dangerous, but North Charleston is closer to The Battery than Englewood is to the Loop -- so why isn’t fox news talking about the Charleston historic district being one of the most dangerous places in the nation?

The What’s Chicago? twitter bot illustrates this perceptual partisan divide very effectively by retweeting every post that contains the phrase "Chicago is..." 

(apologies for the thread jacking)

https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/murder-map-deadliest-u-s-cities/66/

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by kermit

[LKN704]

23 minutes ago, kermit said:

This is an excellent post, it really irks me when people let partisan perceptions get in the way of understanding the nature of places. I would add that the California economy (as measured by total output) has far outperformed the NC economy despite NC's much higher population growth rates. There is certainly lots about California that is undesirable to me, but the state is the undisputed economic engine of the nation and showing no signs of decline (California is nearly 14% of US GDP).

Partisan views certainly do color our perceptions of places. The right continues to rant about violence in Chicago, despite the fact that quite a few cities in more conservative states have higher homicide rates. Cities with higher rates of homicide than Chicago include: Montgomery, Birmingham, Little Rock, Indianapolis, Tuscaloosa, Columbus (GA), Cincinnati, Columbia (SC), North Charleston, Memphis, Kansas City, Dayton and St. Louis (currently the highest homicide rate in the US). 

(North Charleston is closer to The Battery than Englewood is to the Loop so shouldn't we perceive the Charleston historic district to be one of the most dangerous places in the nation? )

(apologies for the thread jacking)

https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/murder-map-deadliest-u-s-cities/66/

 

Thanks for the thoughtful and insightful response. 

Another fascinating thing about the "California is a dumpster fire due to taxes/high cost of living/homeless/crime, there is a mass exodus fleeing the state" argument is that people only focus on Californians moving to Texas and other more conservative states. More Californians moved to both Washington and Oregon (combined) than Texas in 2019, despite Washington and Oregon having similar costs of living (Washington is actually more expensive by many metrics) and social issues, like homelessness. 

I’m not trying to make this a Texas vs. California post (there’s plenty of Reddit threads on that topic) but it is worth noting that if you look at overall social and economic outcomes, an individual in California is significantly better off than Texas in terms of life expectancy, overall education, and per capita income. 

If you apply the Human Development Index (HDI) to each state, California is ranked 15th, tied with Alaska, Delaware, Oregon, and Virginia. Texas is ranked 32nd, and North Carolina is ranked 36th.

It’s true that California struggles with homelessness, but Texas struggles and falls behind with almost every aspect relating to health. California has the third lowest infant mortality rate, while Texas is ranked 23rd (NC is ranked 42nd). California has the fourth lowest maternal mortality rate, while Texas is ranked 43rd. 33% of adults in Texas are obese while only 23% of adults in California are obese. More adults smoke in Texas than in California. Texas has the highest number of uninsured residents in the country. 

Partisan politics loves to paint California as this poster child of what happens to crime rates when controlled by Democrats, but violent crime rates are similar, with California having slightly less violent crime than Texas. Texas has a much higher firearm death rate than California. 

 

[QCxpat]

One of the questions that came up at yesterday's UP meetup was:

• When did Charlotte pass Nashville in population?    Answer:  2010

Nashville was incorporated as a city in 1806.   Charlotte was incorporated in 1768.

From the 1810 census to the 2000 census,  Nashville was larger than Charlotte in every census during that 190 year period.

Charlotte 1st passed Nashville in pop. in the 2010 census and also led Nashville in the 2020 census.

Nashville:   2010 census  -  601,222              2020 census  -  689,447             Difference in 2010:  130,202

Charlotte:  2010 census  -  731,424              2020 census  -  874,579             Difference in 2020:  185,132

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Nashville's growth rate from 2010 - 2020 was 11.0%.

By comparison, Charlotte's growth rate from 2010 - 2020 was 21.9%.

The U.S. Census Bureau will release pop. estimates for cities and towns in May,  2022.

I'm confident that Charlotte will widen its lead over Nashville when the estimates are released in May.

J.L. Ramsaur Photography  Aerial View of Music City - Nashville, Tennessee.  Taken on November 12, 2013.

 Aerial View of Charlotte North Carolina is a photograph by Bill Cannon, DSC_0845, which was uploaded on April 28th, 2020.

Edited February 27, 2022 by QCxpat

[QCxpat]

23 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Believe what you want.

here is a  story this week from the San Fran Biz Times

""In a new study on migration out of California, 39% of CEOs and business owners surveyed said they are giving some or serious consideration to moving their companies out of the state, while another 18% said they would if they could.

The authors of "Restoring the California Dream," Chapman University professors Joel Kotkin and Marshall Toplansky, were featured on a webinar on the topic hosted by the Bay Area Council Thursday.

“I think the state is minimizing the degree of competition from not only other countries but from other parts of the U.S.,” said Kotkin, a professor of urban studies. He pointed to Texas and Ohio as two examples of states winning business from California. “The public is increasingly dissatisfied, all the poll data will tell you that. The economy is much too dependent on tech, other sectors are weaker and this could become a real problem if the IPOs and the tech stocks don’t do so great this year.

“A lot of the media and the administration doesn’t think there’s an exodus from California,” Kotkin said. “Well, it’s not like the Hebrews leaving Goshen, but 2.4 million people net out in 20 years is not insignificant.”

That doesn't take into account movement within the state. One San Diego participant in the Bay Area Council’s webinar Thursday said their city is suffering from home prices going through the roof because people are moving there from San Francisco. The pain of soaring home prices is also frequently heard from long-time residents of newly popular destinations for the Bay Area exodus, such as Boise, Idaho.

The ability to buy homes is a key driver in migration out of California, the study found. 

“If you look at who’s leaving, this is our seed corn,” said Marshall Toplansky, a clinical assistant professor of management science at Chapman University. “This is the group that is going to be creating wealth that will sustain California for the next couple of generations.”

Or they would be if they weren’t heading to Texas and elsewhere to buy homes, raise families and create that wealth. For example, Charles Schwab moved its longtime San Francisco headquarters to Texas last year, along with Tesla.

“That does not bode well for California's next generation,” Toplansky said. “California has created more billionaires than any other place, but average people are finding it very, very difficult to live here.” 

California lawmakers are again considering a wealth tax on the state’s millionaires and billionaires, which will go before voters if it’s passed by two-third majorities in both houses of the California legislature.

Jennifer Hernandez, partner with Holland & Knight, criticizes key environmental legislation such as the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA, referring to it as “green Jim Crow." 

“Frankly, I think it is a very, very politically effective camouflage for what amounts to keeping those people who aren’t already here out — make it just too expensive. And make it particularly too expensive for those not in the professional class,” Hernandez said of the effect CEQA litigation has in hindering housing construction, especially in wealthier neighborhoods. Hernandez is a scheduled speaker at the San Francisco Business Times upcoming event, Housing the Middle, being held March 18 in San Francisco.

Keith Knopf, CEO of West Sacramento-based grocer Raley’s, provided a firsthand look at how California’s costs and regulations stifle investment and job creation in Northern California versus its operations in Arizona and Nevada. Knopf said Raley’s generates $3 billion in annual revenue in the region, where it employs about 10,000 people and makes an annual profit of about $65 million. But of the company’s $300 million in capital investments made over the past couple years, $270 million went to Arizona and Nevada.

“The incremental cost when you set aside land, labor, utilities and taxes to do business in California, in the footprint I just described, is an incremental $75 million to do the exact same revenue in the same businesses in Arizona or Nevada,” Knopf said. “The capital and deployment out of state isn’t because the returns are greater there. It’s because it’s easier and more efficient to deploy there.”

Knopf pointed to CEQA litigation as a key factor in making it more expensive and time-consuming to open a new store in Northern California, meaning jobs aren’t created to staff those new locations during the years of CEQA litigation moving through the courts.

“The hidden cost of doing business in California really falls to people who are the wage earners. I think that’s lost in the conversation,” Knopf said. 

Among the concluding comments posted in the chat room at the Bay Area Council’s webinar, one simply said: “Thank you for voicing publicly what many discuss in private.”""

the middle class is moving out big time  yes billionaires and other multi millionaires continue to live there.  But facts are facts they are losing population why is that? 

 

According to the U.S. Census Bureau ("USCB"), California had a net pop. decline from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021.

California's decennial population as of April 1, 2020 was 39,538,223.

California's USCB estimated pop. as of July 1, 2021 was  39,237,830.

California experienced a net decline in its pop. of  -300,393,  or a pop. % change of  -0.8%  from 04/01/2020 to 07/01/2021 .

This was the 1st drop in California's pop. since it was admitted to the Union in 1850.

In December, 2022, the US Census Bureau will release new state pop. estimates as of 07/01/2022. 

Links:  https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by QCxpat
add date of next US Census Bureau pop. ests. release

[videtur quam contuor]

A perhaps pointless piece of information. In the first US census North Carolina was third in population, behind Pennsylvania and Virginia. This is counter to my haphazard intuition that NC was less populated due to few good ports and inland waterways for trade (which were, nonetheless, true).  Also the use of "ditto" in 1790 surprised me.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/us-census-1790/

Edited February 28, 2022 by tarhoosier

[davidclt]

1 hour ago, tarhoosier said:

A perhaps pointless piece of information. In the first US census North Carolina was third in population, behind Pennsylvania and Virginia. This is counter to my haphazard intuition that NC was less populated due to few good ports and inland waterways for trade (which were, nonetheless, true).  Also the use of "ditto" in 1790 surprised me.

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/us-census-1790/

Holy cow, for the enumeration of slaves, for this enumeration, is that counting 1/1 or 3/5? Regardless, 694,208 humans enslaved is 694,208 too many. If it's 3/5 that's 1,157,133 humans enslaved in the US (in all states but Maine and Massachusetts). The mind boggles.

[videtur quam contuor]

Someone had posted today a photo of a crockery jug from about the time of that census that had the census figures (correctly) listed in the order of this document I posted. For some reason I cannot understand.

So I went to the internet to see if the crockery was correct and it was. (Why am I the way that I am?).

 

edit for above post:

I believe it is 1-1 but the enumeration, which is exactly that, is converted to representation by the 3/5 figure.

Edited February 28, 2022 by tarhoosier

[15895]

On 2/27/2022 at 12:12 PM, QCxpat said:

According to the U.S. Census Bureau ("USCB"), California had a net pop. decline from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021.

California's decennial population as of April 1, 2020 was 39,538,223.

California's USCB estimated pop. as of July 1, 2021 was  39,237,830.

California experienced a net decline in its pop. of  -300,393,  or a pop. % change of  -0.8%  from 04/01/2020 to 07/01/2021 .

This was the 1st drop in California's pop. since it was admitted to the Union in 1850.

In December, 2022, the US Census Bureau will release new state pop. estimates as of 07/01/2022. 

Links:  https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

 

I don’t really trust pandemic numbers. Especially for larger or more liberal areas that had stricter Covid guidelines. 

Some were quick to oink & revel DC lost the most people (%age wise) compared to any other state, liberal cities are dying and it made it in quite a bit of headlines. DC officials at the time balked that was not accurate and a latest report shows all that loss has been regained already (which did not make any headlines outside of a blurb in local news) 

It didn’t even make sense in that Washington city alone was/is adding  an insane amount of development with announcements seemingly daily (not even including NoVa which I can’t keep up with) 

So I’d be interested in the numbers for CÁ leading up to Covid and after Covid. Not enough to look it up myself though xD

California added over 2 million people between 2010 - 2020. 

NC added a little less than 1 million. 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD