Charlotte area population statistics

[Blue_Devil]

On 2/26/2022 at 1:47 PM, kermit said:

I have been working with OSBM projections for more than 20 years. My experience has been that their estimation models have always underestimated growth in Charlotte and Raleigh and also tend to be overly optimistic about rural decline (they were very late to acknowledge decline as a trend and the tend to underestimate the amount of decline). I think their mapping category of “population loss” was selected to allow them to underplay the magnitude of rural decline. I am not sure I would say their predictions are politically-driven, but I think their estimation models rely on historic trends a bit too much.

So out of curiosity here, you think Meck and Wake will grow even faster?

[kermit]

On 3/8/2022 at 10:05 AM, Blue_Devil said:

So out of curiosity here, you think Meck and Wake will grow even faster?

Yup

One of the things that backwards-looking projection models (like OSBM use) omit is changes in national visibility / reputation / status. Charlotte and Raleigh have only recently reached the size where folks from outside the region begin to recognize and understand their merits and attractiveness. NC’s metros were so small as to be essentially invisible outside the region until the past decade or so (thus the Charlottesville/Charleston/Charlotte confusion).  As CLT and RGH become more nationally known their growth will accelerate, but OSBM won't incorporate that acceleration in the projections for a decade. 

There is also a momentum element to population growth. The more people who move to a place, the more non-residents begin to see that place as attractive (“gezz honey, my cousin is really glad she moved to Raleigh last year, I think we should check it out too”). This is what propelled Dallas to its current size, this effect will continue in CLT and RGH for another decade or two.

[while these two trends are similar, its best to think about the first trend as a macro process (e.g. potential migrants reading about Charlotte in the news). While the second trend is more of an individual process (e.g. potential migrants knowing people who moved to these places recently). The technical terms are channelized vs. chain migration.]

The only thing that might cause a sustained decline in population growth in Charlotte and Raleigh will be long-term, high-end job loss — essentially deindistrialization. The job loss will need to last longer than 5 years (maybe 10) before people catch on that it is a trend and begin to realize that boomtown status has ended (the 2008 recession did not reduce pop growth in Charlotte by significant levels despite our very high unemployment). Charlotte’s economy is now diversified enough that I no longer see the loss of an individual firm as a major risk, Raleigh has a big enough base in various aspects of state government that I don’t see much risk of structural change there either.

^ all of this explains why I consider it to be climate arson that neither city acts like transit expansion is an urgent need (and yes, I know about Raleigh’s BRT plans). This growth is gonna happen with or without transit, without transit we are just going to get paralyzing sprawl.

Edited March 14, 2022 by kermit

[Blue_Devil]

Just now, kermit said:

Yup

Time to buy additional properties.... Those growth rates are crazy. Wake CO over 2 and Meck close to that. I can only imagine what Uptown, SouthEnd and the surrounding areas will look like here. 

[QCxpat]

Today's CBJ  "Charlotte Metro Area adds 31K-plus people last year,"  by Jena Martin
 

Excerpts;  "The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metropolitan statistical area grew by about 31,381 people between July 1, 2020 and 2021 to reach more than 2.7 million residents, according to the latest round of population estimates released this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau.  That was the ninth-highest numeric increase of U.S. metro areas over the year period.  And it just edged out the addition of 28,186 people in the Raleigh-Cary area, which had the 10th-highest increase to result in an estimated population count of about 1.45 million.  The Durham-Chapel Hill metro increased by an estimated 2,820 people to reach a population of about 654,012.  The Greensboro-High Point area's population rose by 2,087 residents to come in at about 778,848 residents.  And the Winston-Salem metro picked up 5,069 residents to reach 681,438 people.  On the western edge of the region, the Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton metro area saw about 1,206 people added to reach a population of 366,441."

"The Charlotte metro's estimated population from 2020 to 2021 increased at a rate of 1.2%, which was 70th highest of its U.S. counterparts.  In terms of counties, Mecklenburg's population over the year increased by 0.4% — nearly 4,000 people — to about 1.12 million, the bureau's estimates show.  Mecklenburg has the second-highest total population in the state, trailing Wake County's 1.15 million residents.  Wake added 16,651 residents over the year, more than any other county in the state."

"The Charlotte metro area's population growth was fueled by counties like Lancaster in South Carolina, which hit a milestone by reaching 100,000 residents in 2021.  It should be noted that, although not a part of the local metro, Cleveland County — about 40 miles west of Charlotte — passed that same threshold, notching an estimated population count of 100,359.  Lancaster County logged the highest year-over-year growth rate of counties included in the local metro, at 3.8%.  That was followed by Lincoln County in the northwest part of the region, with a 2.8% population increase, and Iredell County, with a 2.3% increase.  Just one county in the Charlotte metro had a decrease in population last year. Chester County lost about 67 residents — a 0.2% drop."

Link:   https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2022/03/24/census-bureau-releases-latest-population-estimates.html 

[Temeteron]

Metro  and County populations are out and looks like Florida and Arizona have mushroomed the past year due to Californians and New Yorkers moving out.  
 

Top 10 Metro Areas in Numeric Growth: July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021

(sorry about the two pics.  I am not savvy haha)

 

[CLT2014]

Really interesting that Mecklenburg was estimated as the slowest growing county by percentage in the metro area (other than Chester that lost population). Even Gaston was estimated as growing more than Meck. 

Is this likely the impact of the pandemic causing less in-migration to Meck for jobs as people could work remote? Rents and apartment construction don't seem to indicate a slow down in population growth, but I also realize there is less available land in Meck for massive subdivisions of 250 single family homes with 5 people living in the house like in Lancaster County, York, Cabarrus, et.. Mecklenburg construction also is full of luxury apartment buildings which aren't necessarily at 100% occupancy due to rents being unaffordable for the masses. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by CLT2014

[Temeteron]

2 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

Really interesting that Mecklenburg was estimated as the slowest growing county by percentage in the metro area (other than Chester that lost population). Even Gaston was estimated as growing more than Meck. 

Is this likely the impact of the pandemic causing less in-migration to Meck for jobs as people could work remote? Rents and apartment construction don't seem to indicate a slow down in population growth, but I also realize there is less available land in Meck for massive subdivisions of 250 single family homes with 5 people living in the house like in Lancaster County, York, Cabarrus, et.. 

It’s getting too expensive in Meck County is my guess

[KJHburg]

also the sheer number of people in Mecklenburg over 1 Million vs surrounding counties means growth in Meck will be a lower percentage than a Cabarrus county which 1/5 of the population.  Lots of singles and couples move into Meck, but larger families buy more homes in the surrounding counties.  This is due to prices of homes in Meck and schools. 

73 of NC's 100 counties have grown in the last year with the new estimates.

https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/03/24/county-estimates-show-more-deaths-than-births-pandemic-migration/

Notice the map showing the fastest growing counties around Charlotte or Raleigh or the coast. 

Currituck up in the far NE corner is growing as a suburban choice for Tidewater VA and as a retirement spot.  

[Temeteron]

5 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

also the sheer number of people in Mecklenburg over 1 Million vs surrounding counties means growth in Meck will be a lower percentage than a Cabarrus county which 1/5 of the population.  Lots of singles and couples move into Meck, but larger families buy more homes in the surrounding counties.  This is due to prices of homes in Meck and schools. 

73 of NC's 100 counties have grown in the last year with the new estimates.

https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/03/24/county-estimates-show-more-deaths-than-births-pandemic-migration/

Notice the map showing the fastest growing counties around Charlotte or Raleigh or the coast. 

Currituck up in the far NE corner is growing as a suburban choice for Tidewater VA and as a retirement spot.  

It’s so interesting to me how close the numbers are for the bottom 5 spots. Atlanta,  Tampa, San Antonio, Charlotte, & Raleigh had very similar numbers. 

[KJHburg]

Wake County grew at 1.8% in the year basically 3 times faster than Mecklenburg.  A lot of that has to do with lots of land to build on and just the fact the area is growing faster than Charlotte. 

From the NC demography link above:

"The 21 North Carolina counties with net out-migration were primarily in the eastern and Sandhills regions of the state, with two notable exceptions: Mecklenburg and Durham. Both Mecklenburg and Durham had large estimated in-flows of international migrants but even larger out-flows of individuals leaving for other counties and states.

These out-migrations contributed to slower growth for Mecklenburg (0.6%) and Durham (0.4%); both counties grew more slowly than the state overall. This contrasts with their population growth rankings last decade. Like the pandemic migration mentioned above, whether this is a single year aberration due to the pandemic or a multi-year trend is something we won’t know until we get more data."

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by KJHburg

[QCxpat]

Today - U.S. Census Bureau Press Release and Tables

With an estimated population of 2,701,046  as of 07/01/2021, the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) moved up one place in the national rankings to become the nation's 22nd largest metro. 

Charlotte's Combined Statistical Area (CSA) est. pop. as of 07/01/2021 was 2,864,830.   

The Raleigh-Durham CSA est. pop. as of 07/01/2021 was 2,144,608.

See link to Tables below -

"Annual and Cumulative Estimates of Population Change for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. and Puerto Rico and MSA Rankings:  April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021"

"Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Combined Statistical Areas and their Geographic Components:  April 1, 2022 to July 1, 2021" 

Links:   https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/population-estimates-counties-decrease.html

Table 6

Top 10 Metro Areas in Numeric Growth: July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021
Rank	Metro Area	April 1, 2020  (Estimates Base)	July 1, 2020	July 1, 2021	Numeric Growth
1	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	7,637,387	7,662,325	7,759,615	97,290
2	Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ	4,845,832	4,867,925	4,946,145	78,220
3	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	7,122,240	7,137,747	7,206,841	69,094
4	Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX	2,283,371	2,299,125	2,352,426	53,301
5	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	4,599,839	4,605,504	4,653,105	47,601
6	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA	6,089,815	6,101,146	6,144,050	42,904
7	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	3,175,275	3,183,385	3,219,514	36,129
8	San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	2,558,143	2,566,683	2,601,788	35,105
9	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	2,660,329	2,669,665	2,701,046	31,381
10	Raleigh-Cary, NC	1,413,982	1,420,225	1,448,411	28,186

 

Table 5

Top 10 Metro Areas in Percent Growth: July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021
Rank	Metro Area	April 1, 2020  (Estimates Base)	July 1, 2020	July 1, 2021	Percent Growth
1	St. George, UT	180,279	181,924	191,226	5.1%
2	Coeur d'Alene, ID	171,362	172,646	179,789	4.1%
3	Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC	487,722	491,582	509,794	3.7%
4	Punta Gorda, FL	186,847	187,960	194,843	3.7%
5	The Villages, FL	129,752	130,897	135,638	3.6%
6	Boise City, ID	764,718	769,581	795,268	3.3%
7	Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL	725,046	729,233	753,520	3.3%
8	Provo-Orem, UT	671,185	674,967	697,141	3.3%
9	Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	760,822	764,679	787,976	3.0%
10	Logan, UT-ID	147,348	147,796	152,083	2.9%

 

Table 3

Top 10 Counties in Numeric Decline: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021
Rank	State	County	April 1, 2020  (Estimates Base)	July 1, 2020	July 1, 2021	Numeric Decline
1	California	Los Angeles County	10,014,009	9,989,165	9,829,544	-184,465
2	New York	New York County	1,694,251	1,687,834	1,576,876	-117,375
3	Illinois	Cook County	5,275,541	5,262,741	5,173,146	-102,395
4	New York	Kings County	2,736,074	2,727,393	2,641,052	-95,022
5	New York	Queens County	2,405,464	2,395,791	2,331,143	-74,321
6	California	San Francisco County	873,965	870,014	815,201	-58,764
7	California	Santa Clara County	1,936,259	1,930,598	1,885,508	-50,751
8	New York	Bronx County	1,472,654	1,466,438	1,424,948	-47,706
9	California	Alameda County	1,682,353	1,679,844	1,648,556	-33,797
10	Florida	Miami-Dade County	2,701,767	2,692,459	2,662,777	-38,990

 

Table 4

Top 10 Counties in Percent Decline: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021
Resident Population of 20,000 or more in 2020 and 2021
Rank	State	County	April 1, 2020  (Estimates Base)	July 1, 2020	July 1, 2021	Percent Decline
1	New York	New York County	1,694,251	1,687,834	1,576,876	-6.9%
2	California	San Francisco County	873,965	870,014	815,201	-6.7%
3	North Dakota	Williams County	40,950	41,149	38,484	-6.0%
4	Louisiana	Calcasieu Parish	216,785	216,416	205,282	-5.3%
5	California	San Mateo County	764,442	762,453	737,888	-3.5%
6	New York	Kings County	2,736,074	2,727,393	2,641,052	-3.5%
7	Massachusetts	Suffolk County	797,936	795,431	771,245	-3.3%
8	New York	Bronx County	1,472,654	1,466,438	1,424,948	-3.2%
9	New York	Queens County	2,405,464	2,395,791	2,331,143	-3.1%
10	New Jersey	Hudson County	724,854	722,655	702,463	-3.1%

Edited March 24, 2022 by QCxpat

[15895]

That data could be completely right, but I just don't have much faith in any population growth/decline figures from 2020 & 2021.  I feel like the larger & more liberal metropolitan areas were massively undercounted likely due to such strict Covid laws. Working in the Multifamily Real Estate, I also noticed a huge difference between NYC, San Francisco, Seattle & DC  (And their respective states even in rural areas) versus the rest of the country in particular (And Florida but FL is always a pain in the butt no matter what) in terms of complete back up - especially by any type of government agency. I know there are still hundreds of properties who have 2 years haven't been able to get things such as an Elevator certification, etc. due to the massive backups in these areas . Dallas, Houston, Atlanta (also Massive metros in size) haven't had these issues much.

 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD

[KJHburg]

^^^ I personally know of 7 people who left Kings County aka Brooklyn NY and moved to this region.   2 of them were property owners and it took a while to sell their place there not the multiple offers overnight like the Charlotte market. 

[15895]

21 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

^^^ I personally know of 7 people who left Kings County aka Brooklyn NY and moved to this region.   2 of them were property owners and it took a while to sell their place there not the multiple offers overnight like the Charlotte market. 

We'll find out the answer in a year or so. Or earlier if there are quarterly reports. I just think Covid data/trends aren't reliable. I have a lot of data and sources to form and support a hypothesis but it involves other cities and I try to stick to focusing on Charlotte on the Charlotte boards. 

Covid was supposed to completely kill all cities & their downtowns - including Charlotte. Work was supposed to make office tower's completely irrelevant, nearly. Obviously, the cities have been continuing in their construction booms. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD

[kayman]

3 hours ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

That data could be completely right, but I just don't have much faith in any population growth/decline figures from 2020 & 2021.  I feel like the larger & more liberal metropolitan areas were massively undercounted likely due to such strict Covid laws. Working in the Multifamily Real Estate, I also noticed a huge difference between NYC, San Francisco, Seattle & DC  (And their respective states even in rural areas) versus the rest of the country in particular (And Florida but FL is always a pain in the butt no matter what) in terms of complete back up - especially by any type of government agency. I know there are still hundreds of properties who have 2 years haven't been able to get things such as an Elevator certification, etc. due to the massive backups in these areas . Dallas, Houston, Atlanta (also Massive metros in size) haven't had these issues much.

 

 

This is a fact. 

I know people from my graduate school who I talk to that currently work for the US Census Bureau. They have all said anything coming out from the US Census counts or ACS estimates from 2020-2021 should be taken with a grain of salt. There were massive undercounts of black and non-whites aside from Asians, who were overcounted.  Ironically what they said was reaffirmed by the articles saying such a few weeks ago like this: 

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/10/1083732104/2020-census-accuracy-undercount-overcount-data-quality

In other words, believe what you want to believe based on your own perception of things. Based on what I know from who I know from the US Census, Mecklenburg was  undercounted because of its larger than North Carolina average black and Amerindian & multiracial Latino populations. 

I am just going to say that is Charlotte is much growing much faster overall and much blacker & browner in racial makeup than what you all are being told by these faulty and manipulated numbers from 2020-21. Those who are paying close attention will be floored by the 2030 numbers and stats if done correctly and by a competent administration. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by kayman

[KJHburg]

Wikipedia has updated their metro area populations with 2021 estimates and you can see how Charlotte has grew in the last year not as fast as Raleigh or Austin but still very fast compared to most metro area.  And we flipped flopped and are now bigger than the Orlando metro area. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

[CLT2014]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

Wikipedia has updated their metro area populations with 2021 estimates and you can see how Charlotte has grew in the last year not as fast as Raleigh or Austin but still very fast compared to most metro area.  And we flipped flopped and are now bigger than the Orlando metro area. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_statistical_area

The one constant is change... so anything could happen, but if these annual growth rates stayed the same over the next few years.

Charlotte MSA would bump both St. Louis and Baltimore in 2024 for spot #20. This seems reasonable as both those metros have had slow or negative growth. Denver could in theory be overtaken in 2029 if their growth stays low, but it may surge back after COVID and be hard for Charlotte to catch for the #19 spot.

Tampa is on track to pass San Diego for  the #17 spot in 2023. Charlotte won't catch up to Tampa (also growing fast), but it MAY pass San Diego in the 2030s if San Diego kept losing people slightly. 

Some other nationwide MSA rank swaps from the 2021 estimate in Top 50:
Atlanta overtook Miami for #8
Phoenix overtook Boston for #10
Suburban Riverside/Inland Empire surged pass San Francisco/Oakland for #12
Nashville overtook San Jose/Silicon Valley for #35
Raleigh overtook Oklahoma City for #41
Salt Lake City overtook New Orleans for #46

[kayman]

https://www.pensketruckrental.com/renting-from-penske/blog/penske-top-ten-moving-destinations/

Very interesting. I've said that the Trump morally and politically corrupted administration has made the 2020 US Census data practically useless for accurately determining the true population  growth of many densely developed cities like Charlotte for a variety of reasons.  However, the private sector has more accurate information due to smart devices and discrete information that only marketers and advertisers possesses that will be tale-telling this decade to be revealed in the 2030 US Census count. Many more private companies are going to display this information more and more over time.

Mark my words, Charlotte is much growing faster than some people realize. Yes, that means faster than the Triangle. I'll let you all discuss this amongst yourselves to think about that. 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by kayman

[Bolt]

Triangle growing faster.  Will continue to.  Triangle ring cities such as Holly Springs, Apex, Fuquay not only are fast growing but have plenty of land left to expand.  Newer suburbs as these pack more people per square mile than the earlier developed Charlotte suburbs.  Just the Raleigh MSA almost added as much people as the Charlotte MSA with  a much smaller base and half the geographic area .  

[15895]

12 minutes ago, Bolt said:

Triangle growing faster.  Will continue to.  Triangle ring cities such as Holly Springs, Apex, Fuquay not only are fast growing but have plenty of land left to expand.  Newer suburbs as these pack more people per square mile than the earlier developed Charlotte suburbs.  Just the Raleigh MSA almost added as much people as the Charlotte MSA with  a much smaller base and half the geographic area .  

Sources?  The Raleigh MSA adding as much people as Charlotte MSA sounds wrong. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD

[Bolt]

29 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Sources?  The Raleigh MSA adding as much people as Charlotte MSA sounds wrong. 4

Look at table 6 on previous post.  2020 t0 2021 population growth 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Bolt

[CLT2014]

34 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Sources?  The Raleigh MSA adding as much people as Charlotte MSA sounds wrong. 

2020 - 2021 Estimated Population Change:

Charlotte MSA: +40,717 (+1.53%)
Raleigh MSA: +34,429 (+2.43%)

At current growth rates at the CSA level... assuming these "held constant"... The Triangle would pass the Charlotte CSA around 2100 when we are all dead. At that point The Triangle would have 14.2 million people and Charlotte would have 14.1 million people.

In reality, both metros will eventually slow due to nationwide aging, infrastructure, housing prices, the emergence of the next "it" metro area, et... at some point the Carolinas will be fighting to keep the jobs and population we gained from moving to the new hot cities. There was a point everybody was moving to California... now more people domestically move away than move in. Anything can happen.

Edited May 9, 2022 by CLT2014

[KJHburg]

Raleigh MSA which does not include Durham grew much faster than the Charlotte MSA in the last 10 years.  Look up the 2010 to 2020 figures.  Yes Charlotte is growing fast but Raleigh is growing faster.  

[Bolt]

Yup, we all forget these are just Raleigh’s  MSA numbers .  Durham growth is impressive with lots of growth headed north and east toward Oxford . All depends on future land policies and most important job growth.   Triangle is adding more higher paying jobs recently.   Will this trend continue who knows? 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Bolt

[Richhamleigh, DC]

1 hour ago, Bolt said:

Yup, we all forget these are just Raleigh’s  MSA numbers .  Durham growth is impressive with lots of growth headed north and east toward Oxford . All depends on future land policies and most important job growth.   Triangle is adding more higher paying jobs recently.   Will this trend continue who knows? 

Indeed...