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Charlotte area population statistics


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11 hours ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Back in 2020/2021 the apocalypse talk of cities were so insanely wrong. People should be held to their positions to some degree but throughout the pandemic, the goal post keeps moving and moving. 

Haven't you heard, Nobody Goes There Anymore, It’s Too Crowded?

Edited by davidclt
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Carolina Demography,  "North Carolina's Fastest Growing Municipalities in Triangle and Brunswick County" by Rebecca Tippett, 05/27/2022

Excerpts:  "On Thursday May 26th, the Census Bureau released 2021 population estimates for municipalities.  Here’s what the new data tell us about how North Carolina’s cities and towns have changed since the 2020 Census."

Population Milestones.  "Winston-Salem's population estimate for July 1, 2021, was 250,320, an increase of 877 or 0.4% since the 2020 Census.  The next North Carolina municipality to pass a population milestone may be Wake Forest: at 49,657 residents in 2021 and fast growth since 2020, Wake Forest should surpass 50K in the 2022 estimates."

"Of the state’s 551 municipalities, 337 or 61% had population gains since 2020. ... The fastest-growing municipalities were in the Triangle and Brunswick.  Wendell (18.1%) and Zebulon (15.3%) towns, both in Wake County, were the two fastest-growing municipalities in the state.  The next three fastest-growing municipalities—Navassa (11.2%), Leland (10.9%), Northwest (10.1%), and Calabash (8.6%)—were all in Brunswick County, the fastest growing county in the state.  Angier (Harnett), Sandy Creek (Brunswick), Fuquay-Varina (Wake), and Clayton (Johnston) rounded out the top ten fastest-growing places."

"The municipalities with the largest numeric increases were more concentrated in Charlotte and the Triangle.  Charlotte City gained an estimated 5,168 residents, the largest increase statewide, followed by Apex (4,114) and Fuquay-Varina (2,584) in Wake, Leland (2,547) in Brunswick, and Concord (2,511) in Cabarrus."

"The municipalities with the largest estimated population losses are spread across the state:  Asheville (-472) had the largest estimated losses, followed by Jacksonville (-463).  Both municipalities had estimated population gains during the past decade, so these estimates suggest potential changes in local growth patterns that may reflect impacts of the pandemic.  Chapel Hill and Carrboro, similarly, had strong growth over the past decade but had estimated losses between 2020 and 2021 (-198 and -131, respectively, the 8th and 12th largest losses statewide)."

One-fifth of NC's Population lives in 5 largest places.  "Most of North Carolina’s incorporated places—409 or 74%--are small, containing fewer than 5,000 residents.  Combined, these 409 places have just under 590,000 total residents or 6% of NC’s population.  In contrast, the five largest places—Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham and Winston-Salem—each have a combined population of 2.2 million or 21% of the state’s population."

"In total, 6.1 million or 58% of the state’s population lives in an incorporated place; 4.5 million or 42% lives in an unincorporated area."

Link:  https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/05/27/ncs-fastest-growing-municipalities-in-triangle-and-brunswick/   

 

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Edited by QCxpat
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39 minutes ago, QCxpat said:

Carolina Demography,  "North Carolina's Fastest Growing Municipalities in Triangle and Brunswick County" by Rebecca Tippett, 05/27/2022

Excerpts:  "On Thursday May 26th, the Census Bureau released 2021 population estimates for municipalities.  Here’s what the new data tell us about how North Carolina’s cities and towns have changed since the 2020 Census."

Population Milestones.  "Winston-Salem's population estimate for July 1, 2021, was 250,320, an increase of 877 or 0.4% since the 2020 Census.  The next North Carolina municipality to pass a population milestone may be Wake Forest: at 49,657 residents in 2021 and fast growth since 2020, Wake Forest should surpass 50K in the 2022 estimates."

"Of the state’s 551 municipalities, 337 or 61% had population gains since 2020. ... The fastest-growing municipalities were in the Triangle and Brunswick.  Wendell (18.1%) and Zebulon (15.3%) towns, both in Wake County, were the two fastest-growing municipalities in the state.  The next three fastest-growing municipalities—Navassa (11.2%), Leland (10.9%), Northwest (10.1%), and Calabash (8.6%)—were all in Brunswick County, the fastest growing county in the state.  Angier (Harnett), Sandy Creek (Brunswick), Fuquay-Varina (Wake), and Clayton (Johnston) rounded out the top ten fastest-growing places."

"The municipalities with the largest numeric increases were more concentrated in Charlotte and the Triangle.  Charlotte City gained an estimated 5,168 residents, the largest increase statewide, followed by Apex (4,114) and Fuquay-Varina (2,584) in Wake, Leland (2,547) in Brunswick, and Concord (2,511) in Cabarrus."

"The municipalities with the largest estimated population losses are spread across the state:  Asheville (-472) had the largest estimated losses, followed by Jacksonville (-463).  Both municipalities had estimated population gains during the past decade, so these estimates suggest potential changes in local growth patterns that may reflect impacts of the pandemic.  Chapel Hill and Carrboro, similarly, had strong growth over the past decade but had estimated losses between 2020 and 2021 (-198 and -131, respectively, the 8th and 12th largest losses statewide)."

One-fifth of NC's Population lives in 5 largest places.  "Most of North Carolina’s incorporated places—409 or 74%--are small, containing fewer than 5,000 residents.  Combined, these 409 places have just under 590,000 total residents or 6% of NC’s population.  In contrast, the five largest places—Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham and Winston-Salem—each have a combined population of 2.2 million or 21% of the state’s population."

"In total, 6.1 million or 58% of the state’s population lives in an incorporated place; 4.5 million or 42% lives in an unincorporated area."

Link:  https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/05/27/ncs-fastest-growing-municipalities-in-triangle-and-brunswick/   

 

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…and for some unexplainable reason, the marketing value of Brunswick's growth and population, which is absolutely tied to Wilmington, is going to Myrtle Beach, SC's MSA.   

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19 minutes ago, Phillydog said:

…and for some unexplainable reason, the marketing value of Brunswick's growth and population, which is absolutely tied to Wilmington, is going to Myrtle Beach, SC's MSA.   

Not sure its unexplainable. I assume the bulk of Brunswick's growth is from unemployed people (retirees). Since MSAs are defined based on commuter flows I would expect that Horry County provides a larger number of accessible jobs than New Hanover to Brunswick residents (especially those west of Bolivia). Newly arrived Brunswick residents are not working in the industrial jobs found in North New Hanover, there are relatively few jobs in downtown Wilmington and any opportunities in Southern New Hanover are just going to be tough to access for Brunswick residents given the lack of river crossings and the nasty summer traffic. Meanwhile, Myrtle has thousands of jobs just to the West that are probably good fits for retirees looking for pocket money. 

[I have not looked at the commuting data or the Subcounty geography of Brunswick's growth but I believe much of it is happening in the Shallotte area]

Edited by kermit
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6 minutes ago, kermit said:

Not sure its unexplainable. The bulk of Brunswick's growth is from unemployed people (retirees). Since MSAs are defined based on commuter flows I can see a situation where Horry County attracts more Brunswick residents to work than New Hanover. New Brunswick residents are not working in the industrial jobs found in North New Hanover, there are very few jobs in downtown Wilmington and any opportunities in Southern New Hanover are just going to be tough to access for Brunswick residents given the lack of river crossings and the nasty summer traffic. Meanwhile, Myrtle has thousands of jobs just to the South that are probably good fits for retirees looking for pocket money. 

[I have not looked at the commuting data or the Subcounty geography of Brunswick's growth]

It has not been explained.  I understand commuting data is part of the determination but I'd like to see the data.  Most of the growth is I. Northern Brunswick, across the river from downtown Wilmington and over an hours drive to South Carolina.  I don't know how many seniors are drive two hours a day for minimum wage when gas is 4.5 a gallon.

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6 hours ago, QCxpat said:

"The municipalities with the largest numeric increases were more concentrated in Charlotte and the Triangle.  Charlotte City gained an estimated 5,168 residents, the largest increase statewide, 

                                                  

That's exactly the point of my earlier post.  That is feeble growth compared to the annual growth rate up to 2020.  This is about one-quarter to one-third the number of people who were moving into Charlotte every year previously.  Folks like my nephew will not be returning to his office in Uptown EVER. 

Before the pandemic and the switch to remote work, it wasn't even a consideration to allow employees to work from home permanently, now it's an expectation.   My agency went remote during the pandemic, now that's a permanent status.  On any given day pre-pandemic, most of our staff was in the office.  Now ZERO people are there and the office space has now been downsized so much that there is no longer room for hardly anybody even if they wanted to be there.  But they don't. And our employees are now spreading out all over the country.

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5 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

Brunswick County overwhelmingly commutes to New Hanover (26.8%). Employment connections are so poor to Horry County that Mecklenburg County and Horry County, SC are tied at getting 3% of Brunswick County commuters. 

The OMB heavily based their decision to separate Brunswick from New Hanover based on the urban area census definitions in 2010. They found the population of Brunswick in the Mrytle Beach urban area was larger than the portion in the Wilmington urban area (like Leeland). Population growth was also higher in the municipalities and towns closer to the SC border. These areas near the SC border are largely retired people though so they aren't commuting anywhere.  The OMB decided to focus more on population density / proximity than commuting given the area's large retired population. Retirees in the southern end of the county may shop in Horry County or run an errand there, but they don't commute there because they don't work. Using the commute metric, the ties are largely to New Hanover. 

https://www.wilmingtonbiz.com/more_news/2021/05/24/area_officials_brunswick_county_connections_stronger_to_new_hanover_for_msa/21877

https://www.wilmingtonbiz.com/2020_in_biz/2020/04/03/regional_rift/20173

Thank you for the contribution and helping to understand this situation.  A few points...it seems as though the with the exception of Carolina shores, navassa, Leland, and St.james, in northern Brunswick are the fastest growing places in the county.  The other point is that Brunswick is part of the Wilmington mpo because Brunswick County in the Wilmington Urban Area.  MPOs don't cross state lines (?) But the determination of whether you are a member of an MPO and not an RPO is urban area.  I'm trying to find a map of the MB Urban Area....  thanks again!

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Breakdown of several residential projects that will be adding to Charlotte's population growth.

Charlotte-area residential real estate projects newly revealed or under construction

http://media.bizj.us/view/img/12271430/the-colony-apartments-6*304xx1654-1103-0-88.jpg

Synco Properties has begun pre-leasing on its 340 apartments at The Colony redevelopment in SouthPark, which has been many years in the making.

The multifamily development pipeline in and around Charlotte center city remained robust last month.

One of the newest such projects to get off the ground is Radius Dilworth, a $235 million development at East Morehead Street and Euclid Avenue. It will house 626 multifamily units between two buildings upon completion. New York City-based Spandrel Development Partners broke ground on the project in mid-May, with a phased delivery targeted for 2024.

Nearby, in midtown Charlotte, locally based Terwilliger Pappas is moving forward with a final wave of apartments at its mixed-use development at Pearl Park Way and Kenilworth Avenue. Washington, D.C.-based Jefferson Apartment Group is gearing up for a 350-unit multifamily complex in Optimist Park after a recent land acquisition, and Levine Properties just filed a rezoning petition for an apartment building in the Plaza Midwood area.

In SouthPark, Miami-based developer Related Group is seeking to replace Trianon Condominiums with a project containing 730 multifamily units, among other uses, while Charlotte's Synco Properties is nearing completion on the first 340 apartments as part of the long-awaited The Colony redevelopment.

A multitude of multifamily projects are also in the works or taking shape elsewhere in the Charlotte region, including in the communities of Gastonia, Mooresville and Kannapolis, to name a few.

The accompanying slideshow provides a closer look at the residential developments that are planned or underway across the Charlotte area. CBJ staffers reported on those projects in May.

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On 5/31/2022 at 8:18 PM, Phillydog said:

Thank you for the contribution and helping to understand this situation.  A few points...it seems as though the with the exception of Carolina shores, navassa, Leland, and St.james, in northern Brunswick are the fastest growing places in the county.  The other point is that Brunswick is part of the Wilmington mpo because Brunswick County in the Wilmington Urban Area.  MPOs don't cross state lines (?) But the determination of whether you are a member of an MPO and not an RPO is urban area.  I'm trying to find a map of the MB Urban Area....  thanks again!

I love this topic. It's starting to make a little more sense to me now. There wasn't really much to the Leland area outside of the Belville exit until the development explosion beyond the 17/74 split in the early 2000's? While Brunswick's beaches have pretty much extended, developed, from the state line to Southport since 70's/80's? Even today there is a large gap between urban clusters at the the southern and northern ends of the county. Eventually it will switchback because the rate of growth near Leland will tip the MSA scales back to our favor. Regardless, Most people realize Wilmington is the real city in the area MB's there if you need more golf. I wonder if there are any other examples of "toss up" counties in metros like this.

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8 hours ago, DownEast said:

 I wonder if there are any other examples of "toss up" counties in metros like this.

Back in the 1990s Iredell was not part of the Charlotte MSA. Its geography sets it up to send commuters to Hickory and Winston as well as Charlotte, so Iredell didn’t hit the necessary commuter threshold to any one of those places until N Meck employment and S. Iredell residential got built out.

MSAs in NC are pretty flakey (e.g. Anson County only intermittently being in the Charlotte MSA) due to our relatively small county size, our dispersed urban system and a cultural affinity for long distance commuting (leftover from the days of rural industrialization)

Edited by kermit
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1 hour ago, kermit said:

Back in the 1990s Iredell was not part of the Charlotte MSA. Its geography sets it up to send commuters to Hickory and Winston as well as Charlotte, so Iredell didn’t hit the necessary commuter threshold to any one of those places until N Meck employment and S. Iredell residential got built out.

MSAs in NC are pretty flakey (e.g. Anson County) due to our relatively small county size, our dispersed urban system and a cultural affinity for long distance commuting (leftover from the days of rural industrialization)

Due to the industrial development in Union County around Monroe, Wingate, and Marshville and the brain and economic drain in Anson (see the Wal-Mart in Wadesboro shuttered as proof) will likely be realigned again with Charlotte. The same with Stanly County but partially because of exurban sprawl but long commutes into Charlotte.

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14 hours ago, kermit said:

and a cultural affinity for long distance commuting (leftover from the days of rural industrialization)

Given higher housing costs and a volatile job market, my guess would be travel time to work has been increasing almost everywhere.  Telecommuting may have spread out peak travel and even reduced the number of commuter trips (certainly not freight), but the distance and duration of home-based work trips seem to be still likely going up.

Edited by southslider
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So next year will bring new MSA definitions from the Office of Management and Budget. While OMB’s rules can be shockingly arcane one common thread to MSA designations for outlying counties is that a threshold of commuters travel into the core urban area on a daily basis. The OMB uses commuting data collected in the American Community Survey which will include sampled data from 2021 and 2022.

While I am not sure anyone has any idea how this will play out, it is certainly possible that fewer daily commuters and more WFH and hybrid workers are going to push some marginal counties (e.g. Anson, Stanly, Cleveland) out of MSAs. 

While in once sense this is a trivial change (particularly since most analysts refit historical data to contemporary definitions) some business interests are going to see a large number of “declining” MSAs and get the heebegeebees about expansion. Along with this I would bet that Charlotte’s MSA growth will appear to be smaller than it actually was if an outlying county or two gets excluded.

Heads up!

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/07/16/2021-15159/2020-standards-for-delineating-core-based-statistical-areas

[the plan to change the minimum size of the core urbanized area from 50,000 to100,000 was dropped]

Edited by kermit
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from this mornings Charlotte Ledger,  Basically it is the suburban counties with the population growth in the region.  

""Suburban growth: Mecklenburg’s overall population increased by just over 3,900 people from 2020 to 2021 — less than the population gains in far smaller surrounding counties such as York, S.C. (+4,700); Union (+4,400); Iredell (+4,300) and Cabarrus (+4,200).  “Since about 2015, we have seen a shift from most of the growth happening in Mecklenburg County to the bulk of the growth for the region happening in surrounding counties,” says Chuck McShane, director of market analytics with real-estate data company CoStar Group. Suburban counties have been growing, he says, as first-time homebuyers and newcomers look for less expensive alternatives: “There is a lifestyle pull, in family-forming years, to moving to the suburbs. And there is also a cost advantage to living in the suburbs.”""

https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/03/24/county-estimates-show-more-deaths-than-births-pandemic-migration/

""For four of these 16 counties—Mecklenburg, Onslow, Cumberland, and Durham—natural increase was the only source of growth; they all had estimated net out-migration. This is a common pattern for Onslow and Cumberland but represents a divergence from pre-pandemic trends for Mecklenburg and Durham.""

Basically international net growth and natural increases births over deaths is keeping Mecklenburg growing but it is not in-migration.  

 

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I wonder how the population gains shook out in Mecklenburg and Charlotte. 
 

Wake County had the highest population gains in the Triangle region and it looks like Mecklenburg had the worst. I wonder what factors contribute to that dichotomy.

It’ll be interesting to see future statistics as things normalize. Things that come to my mind are (1.) Durham & Mecklenburg have relatively higher urban black populations and (2.) Wake is larger and may have more suburban areas and cheaper homes in its boundaries that attracted people. 

7360EEF6-C507-469B-B353-7C84B72EF1EC.thumb.jpeg.dbbbc371a11f251c32ed5f6f44dceaa4.jpeg
 

Not to sound cynical or political, but I’ve noticed black urban areas “declined” throughout the country. I just feel like something is off. They really need to re-do the census at least for some areas where it is impactful to government $ allocations. 

Edited by AirNostrumMAD
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