Charlotte area population statistics

[Temeteron]

47 minutes ago, kayman said:

I've been told by several US Census employees off the record that this whole 2020 census count was trash and botched by political meddling (by the Trump administration). The methodologies chose for the statistical designations from urban areas to metropolitan statistical areas and consolidated statistical areas were to make something of this botched data. If anything you all should be extremely skeptical about this data. Also they even admitted the paid demographic data held by the private sector used for advertisers and commercial users will be much more accurate than this decennial count.

 

There’s no way in hell that those numbers are accurate for Charlotte.  Think of the thousands upon thousands of apartments that have been built over the past 10 years in uptown, SouthEnd, plaza, etc. come on. There’s no way!

[kayman]

9 hours ago, Temeteron said:

There’s no way in hell that those numbers are accurate for Charlotte.  Think of the thousands upon thousands of apartments that have been built over the past 10 years in uptown, SouthEnd, plaza, etc. come on. There’s no way!

I knew something was wrong when black Americans and several non-white demographics mysteriously disappeared from growing black cities and counties across the South including Charlotte,  Atlanta, Houston,  and Washington (DC).  It had nothing to do with that racial and ethnic reclassification was changed. There are clear signs of political meddling in the numbers and demography by Stephen Miller in the Trump admin. This was well documented by several reputable publications. 

Here's my professional take of true population approximations:

Charlotte urban area is approximately 1.5M in total population; demographics are as follows (51% white, 26% black, 7% Asian, 1% Native/Indigenous/Pacific Islander, 13% multiracial/two or more races, 2% other; 14% Hispanic/Latino/Spanish speaking population) 

City of Charlotte is likely around 900K-915K in municipal population; demographics are as follows (40% white, 39% black, 7% Asian, 3% Native/Indigenous/Pacific Islander, 1% other, 9% multiracial/two or more races; 15% Hispanic/Latino/Spanish speaking population)

Of course, we probably won't be able to verify these numbers until the 2030 US Census decennial count.

Edited December 30, 2022 by kayman

[Temeteron]

1 minute ago, kayman said:

I knew something was wrong when black Americans and several non-white demographics mysteriously disappeared from growing black cities and counties across the South including Charlotte,  Atlanta, Houston,  and Washington (DC).  It had nothing to do with that racial and ethnic reclassification changed. There are clear signs of political meddling in the numbers and demography by Stephen Miller in the Trump admin. This was well documented by several reputable publications. 

Here's my professional take of true population approximations:

Charlotte urban area is approximately 1.5M in total population; demographics are as follows (51% white, 26% black, 7% Asian, 1% Native/Indigenous/Pacific Islander, 13% multiracial/two or more races, 2% other; 14% Hispanic/Latino/Spanish speaking population) 

City of Charlotte is likely around 900K-915K in municipal population; demographics are as follows (40% white, 39% black, 7% Asian, 3% Native/Indigenous/Pacific Islander, 1% other, 9% multiracial/two or more races; 15% Hispanic/Latino/Spanish speaking population)

Of course, we probably won't be able to verify these numbers until the 2030 US Census decennial count.

I’d say the Hispanic population is higher. Probably 16-17%

Edited December 30, 2022 by Temeteron

[kayman]

31 minutes ago, Temeteron said:

I’d say the Hispanic population is higher. Probably 16-17%

I would agree with that figure for all of the Charlotte MSA and CSA because Cabarrus' Hispanic/Spanish-speaking population is exploding in growth. Especially when it comes to those of Puerto Rican & Dominican origins.

[CLT2014]

11 hours ago, Temeteron said:

There’s no way in hell that those numbers are accurate for Charlotte.  Think of the thousands upon thousands of apartments that have been built over the past 10 years in uptown, SouthEnd, plaza, etc. come on. There’s no way!

The Charlotte Urban Area's boundaries shrunk under the new definitions of an urban area that required greater housing / structural density. As a result, the sliver that connected Statesville to the Charlotte portion of the Urban Area is now too low density. That sliver is now "rural" between Mooresville and Statesville and Statesville became a separate urban area, immediately impacting the Charlotte urban area by 39,849 people shifting into a separate urban area. On the South Carolina side of the border, the Charlotte urban area lost most of the Fort Mill and Indian Land suburbs to the Rock Hill urban area, which went from 104,996 people in 2010 to 218,443 in 2020 as its boundaries grew. Wadesboro is also now considered a separate urban area, rather than part of Charlotte's (4,903 person impact)

So long story short, while the core of Mecklenburg County has been growing, the sprawl and low density around us cut several areas off from the Charlotte urban area or shifted them to entirely net new urban areas as our sprawling suburbs are "not continuous enough" at high density. This cut them off from our core Charlotte urban area. This offsets some of the population gains in areas like South End, Plaza, et... as we lost areas like Statesville and fast growing Fort Mill being considered part of "Urban Charlotte."

Edited December 30, 2022 by CLT2014

[15895]

11 hours ago, Temeteron said:

There’s no way in hell that those numbers are accurate for Charlotte.  Think of the thousands upon thousands of apartments that have been built over the past 10 years in uptown, SouthEnd, plaza, etc. come on. There’s no way!

I don't think they're inaccurate [yet]. SouthEnd & Uptown's entire population is about 27,000 - 30,000ish. One thing I see so far is that Statesville has been taken out of Charlotte's Urban Area and became it's own urban area. Statesville's UA population now is 39,829. [I can tell because on the new list of data, it had Statesville, NC as an urban area]

Rock Hill went from 118,631 to 218,443. So Maybe it stole Fort Mill & Tega Cay from Charlotte? Some of those deletions from Charlotte's urban area could easily wipe out growth in uptown, southend, plaza. But I don't think they released the map of Urban Areas yet - I think it'll be a couple months - so it's hard to tell what exactly the UA of Charlotte is now.

The map below is the old Urban Area boundaries.

 

Otherwise, I do agree completely about the MSA and CSA undercounts, particularly of minority areas.

 

Edit: What CLT2014 said

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by AirNostrumMAD

[CLT2014]

^Yes, shrinking boundaries of the Charlotte Urban Area were the main impact offsetting population. In 2010 the Charlotte Urban Area was 741  square miles and in 2020 it is only 657 square miles, about a -12.8% reduction in land area to either a rural classification or different urban areas (Statesville, Wadesboro, and losing some of the South Carolina suburbs to Rock Hill's urban area that went from 95 square miles in 2010 to 145 square miles in 2020). 

The maps will come out next year showing what territory is no longer dense enough to be considered continuous with Charlotte.

When comparing to Raleigh, their boundaries grew from 2010 to 2020 from 518 square miles to 554 square miles. Their suburban areas like Cary and Apex tend to be a bit more dense (still suburban, but smaller lots) than ours in Indian Land, Fort Mill, et... to form more continuous structural density. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by CLT2014

[jednc]

On 12/9/2022 at 11:01 AM, KJHburg said:

Back to NC these 50 counties have the most native born NC residents.  Of course Meck and most close in ring counties are not on the list but Anson is #3 most NC county so to speak.  Rowan and Catawba are the only other 2 in our regions anywhere on this list. 

https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-carolina-news/counties-with-the-most-born-and-bred-residents-in-nc/

Gaston, Cleveland, Rutherford, Stanley, Burke are all on the list and are all in our region. They are at least all in the Charlotte TV market.

[kermit]

Given the methodology involved in assembling this chart (small sample size, self-selection of Linkdin users, odds that a Linkdin user changes their profile following a move, etc.) its certainly flawed but it suggests Charlotte is doing pretty well with professional worker relocations. Better than Raleigh and Denver! (but less than Jacksonville???, 50% less than Nashville?  1/3 the rate of growth of Austin...)

Chart aside, everyone needs to be prepared for declining Charlotte growth rates (anything north of 1% per year will be great news) since national growth rates have been declining for a while and national population change (natural increase and net immigration) is just about 0%.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by kermit

[KJHburg]

from an article in the Triangle Business Journal about economic growth in Meck and Wake counties.

""Laura Dawson Ullrich, senior regional economist at the Charlotte branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, notes that 24 of the 50 states had higher death rates than birth rates in 2022, according to U.S. Census figures. North Carolina is among the 26 that had more births (122,179, compared with 115,720 deaths), a circumstance that is further bolstered by continuing migration – 99,796 people last year – from other states.

“Both Charlotte and Raleigh are pretty well-positioned,” she adds, referring to population gains. “With growth comes a growing tax base. It comes with the ability to attract more businesses because the No. 1 thing businesses are interested in is, where are we going to get the workers to do the work we want to do?”

Wake's GDP in 2021 was $83.8 billion, second – but still well behind – to Mecklenburg's $109.7 billion, according to the analysis. Durham County is a distant third, at $36.5 billion – up 9 percent from 2020 to 2021, good enough to finish 11th in the state for GDP growth over that time period."""

[kayman]

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/living/article272162667.html

Looks like Charlotte has been officially designated a black mecca like Atlanta, Washington, and Houston. I've said that for a while now. However, everyone else is started to say these things aloud more frequently.

This is also why I have a very hard time believing the drop in black population in Mecklenburg County.  I predict by 2030 Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, Gaston, Lancaster,  Rowan, and York counties are the metro counties with black populations between 20-40% respectively. 

[DCMetroRaleigh]

3 hours ago, kayman said:

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/living/article272162667.html

Looks like Charlotte has been officially designated a black mecca like Atlanta, Washington, and Houston. I've said that for a while now. However, everyone else is started to say these things aloud more frequently.

This is also why I have a very hard time believing the drop in black population in Mecklenburg County.  I predict by 2030 Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, Gaston, Lancaster,  Rowan, and York counties are the metro counties with black populations between 20-40% respectively. 

Hopefully the black migration to North Carolina will finally tip the political scales of state politics in the upcoming decade 

[kayman]

On 2/26/2023 at 12:40 AM, DCMetroRaleigh said:

Hopefully the black migration to North Carolina will finally tip the political scales of state politics in the upcoming decade 

Agreed, it needs to change so the urban areas get their fair share of influence of state policymaking that helps them rather than hurt them. It's all up to the NC Democrats stop hyperfocusing on only the Triangle and Eastern NC when it comes to black progressive influence and representation. 

[LKN704]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:42 AM, kermit said:

Given the methodology involved in assembling this chart (small sample size, self-selection of Linkdin users, odds that a Linkdin user changes their profile following a move, etc.) its certainly flawed but it suggests Charlotte is doing pretty well with professional worker relocations. Better than Raleigh and Denver! (but less than Jacksonville???, 50% less than Nashville?  1/3 the rate of growth of Austin...)

Chart aside, everyone needs to be prepared for declining Charlotte growth rates (anything north of 1% per year will be great news) since national growth rates have been declining for a while and national population change (natural increase and net immigration) is just about 0%.

 

But I thought everyone was leaving California!!!

[KJHburg]

This shows US Post Office Residential and Business change of addresses in the last 4 years across NC and shows what areas are growing and what areas are not.  But remember it includes businesses and residential service.

https://abc11.com/north-carolina-population-growth-moving-to-the-suburbs/12890180/

and yes California is losing population 500,000 people in the last 2 years.

https://therealdeal.com/la/2023/02/16/californialost-500k-residents-in-first-two-years-of-pandemic/

[15895]

On 2/27/2023 at 9:44 PM, KJHburg said:

This shows US Post Office Residential and Business change of addresses in the last 4 years across NC and shows what areas are growing and what areas are not.  But remember it includes businesses and residential service.

https://abc11.com/north-carolina-population-growth-moving-to-the-suburbs/12890180/

and yes California is losing population 500,000 people in the last 2 years.

https://therealdeal.com/la/2023/02/16/californialost-500k-residents-in-first-two-years-of-pandemic/

From the link, Charlotte specifically:

 

 

[CLT2014]

USPS data is tough to gauge actual population change. Unsurprisingly, the zip codes with lots of apartments can experience negative outflows as there are lots of turn over in those zip codes. Young people especially though don't usually use a Change of Address form when they establish a new residence and move INTO a new location... take the zip code around UNCC (28262).

• A 20 year old moves into their first off campus apartment.
• They don't fill out a change of address form to stop mail from going to mom and dad though at home... as they weren't really getting any mail there when they were a kid.
• The first place they start getting mail "as an adult" is this new apartment -> there is no form needed to establish this address though
• They live in the apartment for two years and have started getting some mail
• They turn 23, graduate, and move to a new apartment closer to their first job... BOOM they fill out the change of address with USPS.
• The 23 year old's apartment is backfilled by another 20 year old.... who doesn't fill out a Change of Address form... so overall this unit is a net "out migration" on change of addresses, despite the actual population being stable.

Zip codes with less apartments and more Single Family Homes tend to be much more stable / accurate on Change of Address forms. People are less transitory, they are in the same place for long periods of time, and they are purchasing a permanent home they plan to be in for the long haul so they get their mail set up properly. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by CLT2014

[krazeeboi]

On 12/30/2022 at 11:19 AM, AirNostrumMAD said:

I don't think they're inaccurate [yet]. SouthEnd & Uptown's entire population is about 27,000 - 30,000ish. One thing I see so far is that Statesville has been taken out of Charlotte's Urban Area and became it's own urban area. Statesville's UA population now is 39,829. [I can tell because on the new list of data, it had Statesville, NC as an urban area]

Rock Hill went from 118,631 to 218,443. So Maybe it stole Fort Mill & Tega Cay from Charlotte? Some of those deletions from Charlotte's urban area could easily wipe out growth in uptown, southend, plaza. But I don't think they released the map of Urban Areas yet - I think it'll be a couple months - so it's hard to tell what exactly the UA of Charlotte is now.

The map below is the old Urban Area boundaries.

 

Otherwise, I do agree completely about the MSA and CSA undercounts, particularly of minority areas.

 

Edit: What CLT2014 said

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting; I wasn't aware that Charlotte's UA was reconstructed under the new criteria. I always thought Statesville should be separate, seeing as how it dangles as an appendage from the Huntersville/Cornelius/Mooresville cluster (which looks like it could be its own UA too). But all in all, it's the Catawba River and Lake Wylie (and nearby industrial land usage for the airport and Duke Energy) that prevent Gastonia and Fort Mill/Rock Hill from being completely contiguous with Charlotte's UA. 

In any case, this is why I believe urban agglomerations is a better way of assessing the full urbanized area of a place, which is basically a main urbanized area plus its surrounding UAs that are reasonably contiguous to it. For Charlotte that would include at minimum Concord, Gastonia, and Fort Mill/Rock Hill. 

[kayman]

On 3/20/2023 at 2:37 AM, krazeeboi said:

Interesting; I wasn't aware that Charlotte's UA was reconstructed under the new criteria. I always thought Statesville should be separate, seeing as how it dangles as an appendage from the Huntersville/Cornelius/Mooresville cluster (which looks like it could be its own UA too). But all in all, it's the Catawba River and Lake Wylie (and nearby industrial land usage for the airport and Duke Energy) that prevent Gastonia and Fort Mill/Rock Hill from being completely contiguous with Charlotte's UA. 

In any case, this is why I believe urban agglomerations is a better way of assessing the full urbanized area of a place, which is basically a main urbanized area plus its surrounding UAs that are reasonably contiguous to it. For Charlotte that would include at minimum Concord, Gastonia, and Fort Mill/Rock Hill. 

The current Census criteria for urban areas are a mess at best.

Statesville is definitely apart of the Charlotte urban area.  The amount of residential density starting to connect Troutman to Statesville is already there today. 

The reasons why Gastonia and Charlotte urban areas are separated is because of three flawed criteria not the industrial development nor the Airport since they both actually contribute to the urban density.  Anything east of the South Fork of the Catawba near Cramerton is towards Charlotte. Tbh, Gastonia, Concord, and Rock Hill urban areas are all consolidated with the main Charlotte urban area. However, for political reasons they all are going to remain separated until after the 2030 Census count. Hickory urban area will be the only one not connected to the Charlotte urban area even after 2030. 

[krazeeboi]

On 3/22/2023 at 10:18 PM, kayman said:

The current Census criteria for urban areas are a mess at best.

Statesville is definitely apart of the Charlotte urban area.  The amount of residential density starting to connect Troutman to Statesville is already there today. 

The reasons why Gastonia and Charlotte urban areas are separated is because of three flawed criteria not the industrial development nor the Airport since they both actually contribute to the urban density.  Anything east of the South Fork of the Catawba near Cramerton is towards Charlotte. Tbh, Gastonia, Concord, and Rock Hill urban areas are all consolidated with the main Charlotte urban area. However, for political reasons they all are going to remain separated until after the 2030 Census count. Hickory urban area will be the only one not connected to the Charlotte urban area even after 2030. 

Note that I said those water and land features prevent the Gastonia and Rock Hill UAs from being completely contiguous with Charlotte's, not from being completely folded into Charlotte's. The longstanding rule for UAs has been that once designated as such, it remains as such regardless of how much it grows into a neighboring larger UA. The only exception is when it falls beneath the population/density UA thresholds, in which case an immediately neighboring UA with which it is sufficiently contiguous can absorb it. That may have been among the recent changes to the criteria also but I'm not sure.

As the county seat of a historically fairly industrious county, I'm somewhat surprised Statesville wasn't already an independent UA. I'm guessing it was probably an urban cluster at some point in the past before Charlotte's northern exurban tentacles got ahold of it. The same was probably true of Monroe also.

[tozmervo]

On 3/26/2023 at 1:10 PM, krazeeboi said:

As the county seat of a historically fairly industrious county, I'm somewhat surprised Statesville wasn't already an independent UA. I'm guessing it was probably an urban cluster at some point in the past before Charlotte's northern exurban tentacles got ahold of it. The same was probably true of Monroe also.

Statesville may be the historic and political center of Iredell, but you can be sure the economic and population engine is Mooresville, hands-down. The cross-county-line commuting between Mooresville and Mecklenburg county is probably a huge percentage of the working population there.  (I have also known plenty of Statesville folks that commute to Mecklenburg)

[krazeeboi]

3 hours ago, tozmervo said:

Statesville may be the historic and political center of Iredell, but you can be sure the economic and population engine is Mooresville, hands-down. The cross-county-line commuting between Mooresville and Mecklenburg county is probably a huge percentage of the working population there.  (I have also known plenty of Statesville folks that commute to Mecklenburg)

Oh I'm aware of that; NASCAR, Lowe's, and proximity to Lake Norman have been really good to Mooresville in the postwar era. But Statesville used to lead the state in tobacco production in an earlier era which is primarily why I made the statement that I did.

[kayman]

On 3/26/2023 at 1:10 PM, krazeeboi said:

Note that I said those water and land features prevent the Gastonia and Rock Hill UAs from being completely contiguous with Charlotte's, not from being completely folded into Charlotte's. The longstanding rule for UAs has been that once designated as such, it remains as such regardless of how much it grows into a neighboring larger UA. The only exception is when it falls beneath the population/density UA thresholds, in which case an immediately neighboring UA with which it is sufficiently contiguous can absorb it. That may have been among the recent changes to the criteria also but I'm not sure.

As the county seat of a historically fairly industrious county, I'm somewhat surprised Statesville wasn't already an independent UA. I'm guessing it was probably an urban cluster at some point in the past before Charlotte's northern exurban tentacles got ahold of it. The same was probably true of Monroe also.

Urban area mergers can occur based on commuting patterns due to economic and social interactions between two UAs. 

Differences between the Final 2020 Census Urban Area Criteria and the 2010 Census Urban Area Criteria - Census.gov https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/ua/Census_UA_CritDiff_2010_2020.pdf

Edited March 28, 2023 by kayman

[QCxpat]

Today's CBJ  -  "Lancaster, Lincoln counties see fastest population growth in Charlotte metro, per new Census estimates" by Jenna Martin

"When looking at numeric gains ... no local county comes close to trumping the 19,583 people added in Mecklenburg from July 2021-2022 — second highest in the state."  Mecklenburg County "grew 1.7% over the year and 2.7% since the 2020 Census to an estimated population of 1,145,392 as of July 1, 2022." ...  "A rough analysis by CBJ pegs the Charlotte metro's population at 2,756,069 as of July 2022, up by about 1.9% from the same time in 2021."

Mecklenburg County

2020  Census    -     1,115,482

2021  Est.            -      1,122,276         +    6,794

2022  Est.            -     1,145,392          +  23,116

 

Charlotte - Concord - Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area

2020  Census   -     2,595,027        

2021   Est.          -     2,701,046        + 106,019  

2022    Est.         -     2,756,069       +    55,023

 

 

Links:   https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/03/30/census-bureau-population-counties-mecklenburg.html

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-estimates-counties.html

Edited March 30, 2023 by QCxpat

[davidclt]

3 hours ago, QCxpat said:

Today's CBJ  -  "Lancaster, Lincoln counties see fastest population growth in Charlotte metro, per new Census estimates" by Jenna Martin

I did not realize that all of Lincoln County development has a minimum lot size of 1 acre until listening to today's Charlotte Talks and that Lancaster County has a new UDO.