Charlotte area population statistics

[kayman]

10 hours ago, davidclt said:

I did not realize that all of Lincoln County development has a minimum lot size of 1 acre until listening to today's Charlotte Talks and that Lancaster County has a new UDO.

Most people move further out to afford housing they can acquire for their individual household needs due to the higher minimum price point closer in such as Mecklenburg County.  This type of approach with a 1-acre lot size minimum sounds and looks like Fayette County, Georgia again. A minimal 1-acre lot size guarantees that most people in most middle-income earning households would be priced out of being able to afford the acquisition and construction of a single-family residential product on said properties in Lincoln County.

Which only accelerates regional housing affordability gaps even further. 

Edited March 31 by kayman

[Phillydog]

On 3/20/2023 at 2:37 AM, krazeeboi said:

Interesting; I wasn't aware that Charlotte's UA was reconstructed under the new criteria. I always thought Statesville should be separate, seeing as how it dangles as an appendage from the Huntersville/Cornelius/Mooresville cluster (which looks like it could be its own UA too). But all in all, it's the Catawba River and Lake Wylie (and nearby industrial land usage for the airport and Duke Energy) that prevent Gastonia and Fort Mill/Rock Hill from being completely contiguous with Charlotte's UA. 

In any case, this is why I believe urban agglomerations is a better way of assessing the full urbanized area of a place, which is basically a main urbanized area plus its surrounding UAs that are reasonably contiguous to it. For Charlotte that would include at minimum Concord, Gastonia, and Fort Mill/Rock Hill. 

I can't help but feel that NC gets screwed by the Census.  Raleigh and Durham were once, and should be now, a single MSA.  Wilmington's screw job is legedary.  Why does the Charlotte UA not include the adjacent, attached, UA's?  I'm sorry, but VA Beach and Jacksonville are not "bigger" than Charlotte or Raleigh-Durham and yet, the UA definitions say they are.  Rant over.  

On 3/28/2023 at 12:39 AM, kayman said:

Urban area mergers can occur based on commuting patterns due to economic and social interactions between two UAs. 

Differences between the Final 2020 Census Urban Area Criteria and the 2010 Census Urban Area Criteria - Census.gov https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/ua/Census_UA_CritDiff_2010_2020.pdf

Then Raleigh and Durham should be merged.  

[KJHburg]

7 hours ago, davidclt said:

I did not realize that all of Lincoln County development has a minimum lot size of 1 acre until listening to today's Charlotte Talks and that Lancaster County has a new UDO.

It just started and I did not know this until recently.  It is basically to slow growth and adopt a new comprehensive plan. They have 3000 lots approved in the pipeline right now that can be developed.  It is a temporary thing for the next year or two from what I read. 

[KJHburg]

from the Biz Journal yesterday about the Census release and the details on the metro counties:   Fastest growing suburban counties with Lancaster County topping the list then Lincoln,  Union, Iredell, Cabarrus   all these counties bested Mecklenburg county in population percentage increase.  

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/03/30/census-bureau-population-counties-mecklenburg.html?

""The list below ranks local counties in ascending order of their population percentage change between July 2021 and 2022.

Chester County

2022 population: 31,931

2021 estimate: 32,097

Percentage change: down 0.5%, ranking 34thin S.C.

Anson County

2022 population: 22,202

2021 estimate: 22,254

Percentage change: down 0.2%, ranking 85th in N.C.

Gaston County

2022 population: 234,215

2021 estimate: 231,337

Percentage change: up 1.2%; ranking 26th in N.C.

York County

2022 population: 294,248

2021 estimate: 289,255

Percentage change: up 1.7%, ranking 10th in S.C.

Mecklenburg County

2022 population: 1,145,392

2021 estimate: 1,125,809

Percentage change: up 1.7%, ranking 18th in N.C.

Cabarrus County

2022 population: 235,797

2021 estimate: 231,726

Percentage change: up 1.8%, ranking 17th in N.C.

Rowan County

2022 population: 149,645

2021 estimate: 148,012

Percentage change: up 1.9%, ranking 28th in N.C.

Iredell County

2022 population: 195,897

2021 estimate: 192,227

Percentage change: up 1.9%, ranking 16th in N.C.

Union County

2022 population: 249,070

2021 estimate: 244,260

Percentage change: up 2%, ranking 14th in N.C.

Lincoln County

2022 population: 93,095

2021 estimate: 89,870

Percentage change: up 3.6%, ranking 5th in N.C.

Lancaster County

2022 population: 104,577

2021 estimate: 100,522

Percentage change: up 4%, ranking 3rd in S.C.""

[Temeteron]

Apparently the metro populations have been postponed to May this year “to facilitate the transition from counties to planning regions in Connecticut. This forthcoming data release will be limited to total population and will not include the components of change. The delay and change to product availability is only expected to affect Vintage 2022 estimates.”

[CLT2014]

Unfortunate that the counties that are growing the fastest also have the worst transportation linkages in the region by any mode of transportation, including the car.

1. Lancaster County -> development is largely along Highway 521 where traffic and stop lights are becoming overburdened. Developments are 5 - 7 miles from an interstate and about 10 miles from the Blue Line 485 stop. Traffic largely flows north into the Ballantyne area, overburdening North Carolina roads / negatively impacting quality of life in the Ballantyne area as well. 
2. Lincoln County ->  Sprawl concentrated around Highway 16 in the Denver and Westport area. Traffic flowing south creates absolute chaos at the Mt-Holly Huntersville Rd / Brookshire Blvd intersection near Walmart. This will likely need to be rebuilt at great expense. Absolutely 0 public transit linkages planned for this region of the metro. 
3. Union County -> Also largely sprawl on former country backroads getting overburdened by cars. No public transit plans for this region. Traffic flows on I-485, north on Highway 16 (Providence), and north on Independence.

While we grew by ~19,000 resident in Mecklenburg, we added ~29,000 in the outlying counties. 

[CLT2014]

Using current census definitions of a CSA..... looks like the Charlotte region has overtaken St. Louis for the #20 ranking. 

2022 Estimate:

Charlotte; 2,919,853
St. Louis: 2,906,250

Edited April 3 by CLT2014

[Take2]

On 3/30/2023 at 7:41 PM, KJHburg said:

It just started and I did not know this until recently.  It is basically to slow growth and adopt a new comprehensive plan. They have 3000 lots approved in the pipeline right now that can be developed.  It is a temporary thing for the next year or two from what I read. 

"Temporary" you say.... Nothing about 1 acre lots in a county where 72% of voters voted for Trump in 2022....  is temporary. 

 The white elitist majority just keeps finding legal ways to stay segregated.  I'll own up to this statement should the restriction change in the future. 

 

[CLT2014]

Lincoln County is just going through a typical NIMBY phase. People bought their relatively cheap single family home in a brand new subdivision on clear cut land. Then they created traffic as they commuted to Mecklenburg from said house. Then when the same developer proposes building a clone of their subdivision that caused the traffic across the street..... they lose their mind because it will add even more traffic. Then those people move in and freak out a THIRD subdivision is going to be built across from THEIR subdivision. Subdivision one blames divisions two who blames subdivision three. All three subdivisions don't want to pay taxes to fix the infrastructure issues because they moved to Lincoln County for cheap taxes in the first place and they blame the next subdivision for being the problem... not themselves. 

Lincoln County is also replicating the sins of suburban sprawl notorious in metro-Charlotte. Tons of single family dead-end communities off of country roads with nearly no jobs, completely reliant on commuting to Charlotte and retail clustered away from the subdivisions at busy interchanges that require everybody to drive to the same place for errands. 

Edited April 3 by CLT2014

[KJHburg]

again this Lincoln County pause on development is just that.  Read this article.  Cabarrus, Union, York counties all have had pauses before.  It has nothing to do with they way they vote for a President.    They are trying to come up with a countywide plan to guide their growth.  

https://www.lakenormanpublications.com/articles/lincoln-county-imposes-new-minimum-lot-size-standards/

""The change was discussed in May as a way to slow growth in the short-term while the county works with an outside consulting firm on developing Blueprint 2043, a joint Land Use Plan and Capital Investment Plan designed to set growth priorities for Lincoln County over the next 20 years. ""

[Phillydog]

Georgia vs. North Carolina.  According to the newest estimates, NC is outpacing GA in population growth (2.5% vs. 1.75%).  Starting in 2020 and going through 2030.  If (and we know it won't be) this pace were to continue, NC will exceed GA in population as soon as 2028.

.Georgia	10,729,828	10,912,876	11,104,037	11,298,546	11,496,463	11,697,846	183,048	1.7517%
.North Carolina	10,449,445	10,698,973	10,964,094	11,235,784	11,514,207	11,799,529	249,528	2.4780%

[Phillydog]

Georgia vs. North Carolina.  According to the newest estimates, NC is outpacing GA in population growth (2.5% vs. 1.75%).  Starting in 2020 and going through 2030.  If (and we know it won't be) this pace were to continue, NC will exceed GA in population as soon as 2028.

.Georgia	10,729,828	10,912,876	11,104,037	11,298,546	11,496,463	11,697,846	183,048	1.7517%
.North Carolina	10,449,445	10,698,973	10,964,094	11,235,784	11,514,207	11,799,529	249,528	2.4780%

 

Note Metro Data (from March 2022).  2 from NC in the top 10 and Raleigh-Durham is punching far above its weight.  I'd like to see the percentage growth of the MB, SC metro that's actually from Brunswick County across the river from Wilmington (broken record....)

.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area	7,637,387	7,662,325	7,759,615	122,228	2%
.Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area	4,845,832	4,867,925	4,946,145	100,313	2%
.Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metro Area	7,122,240	7,137,747	7,206,841	84,601	1%
.Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX Metro Area	2,283,371	2,299,125	2,352,426	69,055	3%
.Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA Metro Area	6,089,815	6,101,146	6,144,050	54,235	1%
.Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area	4,599,839	4,605,504	4,653,105	53,266	1%
.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area	3,175,275	3,183,385	3,219,514	44,239	1%
.San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area	2,558,143	2,566,683	2,601,788	43,645	2%
.Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area	2,660,329	2,669,665	2,701,046	40,717	2%
Raleigh-Durham, NC Metro Area	2,063,885	2,071,417	2,102,423	38,538	2%
.Jacksonville, FL Metro Area	1,605,848	1,611,388	1,637,666	31,818	2%
.Boise City, ID Metro Area	764,718	769,581	795,268	30,550	4%
.Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Metro Area	725,046	729,233	753,520	28,474	4%
.Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL Metro Area	760,822	764,679	787,976	27,154	4%
.Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area	2,265,461	2,273,386	2,292,476	27,015	1%
.North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL Metro Area	833,716	837,107	859,760	26,044	3%
.Provo-Orem, UT Metro Area	671,185	674,967	697,141	25,956	4%
.Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area	1,989,519	1,995,343	2,012,476	22,957	1%
.Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC Metro Area	487,722	491,582	509,794	22,072	5%
.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area	2,673,376	2,677,687	2,691,925	18,549	1%
.Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Metro Area	668,921	670,869	685,344	16,423	2%

[JRCLT]

Lincoln County is just going through a typical NIMBY phase. People bought their relatively cheap single family home in a brand new subdivision on clear cut land. Then they created traffic as they commuted to Mecklenburg from said house. Then when the same developer proposes building a clone of their subdivision that caused the traffic across the street..... they lose their mind because it will add even more traffic. Then those people move in and freak out a THIRD subdivision is going to be built across from THEIR subdivision. Subdivision one blames divisions two who blames subdivision three. All three subdivisions don't want to pay taxes to fix the infrastructure issues because they moved to Lincoln County for cheap taxes in the first place and they blame the next subdivision for being the problem... not themselves. 
Lincoln County is also replicating the sins of suburban sprawl notorious in metro-Charlotte. Tons of single family dead-end communities off of country roads with nearly no jobs, completely reliant on commuting to Charlotte and retail clustered away from the subdivisions at busy interchanges that require everybody to drive to the same place for errands. 

It’s almost like they didn’t move there themselves and caused traffic there too! Plus the lack of deliberate design to sustain a place and not just homes. It’s just not looking good.

[Phillydog]

People want government to protect themselves, families and properties from others except when it's their own land/business.  Then they scream about "small government".   The town where I am planning director our long-range plans are built on trying to be fiscally conservative and efficient.  That means growth where we've already paid for infrastructure and adequate infrastructure exists or improvements are in our adopted capital plan.   We've got to do a better job managing population growth but also planning for the time when we aren't growing and ask ourselves, can we live with what's left over after the population boom?  How many subdivisions being built today or such poor quality and design will eventually become the slums of the future?

Edited April 4 by Phillydog

[KJHburg]

Charlotte Regional Business Alliance key takeaways from the recent Census release of county populations.

https://charlotteregion.com/blog/2023/04/06/research-data/growth-rates-rebound-in-charlotte-region-takeaways-from-the-most-recent-us-census-data/

[Hushpuppy321]

On 4/3/2023 at 8:58 AM, CLT2014 said:

Using current census definitions of a CSA..... looks like the Charlotte region has overtaken St. Louis for the #20 ranking. 

2022 Estimate:

Charlotte; 2,919,853
St. Louis: 2,906,250

This is definitely felt on the roads in my daily commute.  Anyway - looks like the next CSA to fall below Charlotte could be the Portland CSA in the next 4/5 years.  

[krazeeboi]

On 3/28/2023 at 12:39 AM, kayman said:

Urban area mergers can occur based on commuting patterns due to economic and social interactions between two UAs. 

Differences between the Final 2020 Census Urban Area Criteria and the 2010 Census Urban Area Criteria - Census.gov https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/reference/ua/Census_UA_CritDiff_2010_2020.pdf

That's a welcome commonsense change to the criteria. We'll see what else this does for the Charlotte-area agglomeration of UAs going forward. 

[AirNostrumMAD]

Struggled with what topic to put this in, but it’s (multifamily) population related. 
 

Multifamily  units U/C & in pipeline updates from Fannie Mae. Going to show Charlotte and a few others as of 4Q22. Check out the link for short 3 pager Multifamily reports among metro areas https://multifamily.fanniemae.com/news-insights/metro-market-outlook


Charlotte:

 

Raleigh: 

Virtually the same amount of units going up; however, Charlotte is more centralized but Raleigh might be a little more dense of a metro area given its multiple nodes & inward growth between Durham/Chapel Hill & Raleigh/Cary

 

Next, 2 of what I consider Charlotte’s direct peer competitors: Austin & Nashville. Both of which seemed to be in Charlotte’s shadows 20 years ago and I think it’s safe to say Austin surpassed Charlotte a while ago and keeps pulling away. Nashville a new comer that started to escape the shadow of CLT like 5 years ago that I think could start pulling ahead of Charlotte but I’m not sure. Both seem to have more dense development patterns. 

To be fair, Austin has been throwing punches in Multifamily Development equal to *booming* metros that are 6M plus. And it’s been punching well above it’s  weight for like a decade or more. Crazyyy.

 

Nashville:

 

Washington DC

Unrelated to Charlotte but but because I live there & this is my post - development is pretty tightly concentrated in the District. The Virginia suburbs mostly  follow metro, especially the new silver line extension. Also Development creeps along the red line in MD with Frederick randomly booming unrelated to metro  (and added the most people in the metro last year. I think it’s just a nice historical town that is becoming popular ) Austin is adding more than DC. 

 

Lastly, two large southern metros Atlanta & Dallas which are too large to be Charlotte’s peers but still in the same neighborhood & closest related and relevant to CLT:

Atlanta mostly dense despite some of the scattering of developments. Austin is adding more than Atlanta. 

Dallas. I don’t fully understand. Not sure what’s the deal with Fort Worth in the graph. Seems very, very  sprawling development wise. But one of a few metro areas adding more than Austin. Which it should given Dallas has 7.6M people! Charlotte/Raleigh - never be like Houston or Dallas, please. 

Edited April 29 by AirNostrumMAD

[scraperguy]

Does anyone know why Nashville seems to have dozens and dozens and dozens of apartment and condo towers under construction or scheduled to start instead of Austin and Charlotte which have more people?

Edited April 30 by scraperguy

[KJHburg]

2 hours ago, scraperguy said:

Does anyone know why Nashville seems to have dozens and dozens and dozens of apartment and condo towers under construction or scheduled to start instead of Austin and Charlotte which have more people?

I was just there 2 weeks ago and they indeed have more high rise apartment towers under way than we do in Charlotte but overall we still have more apartments.  We seem to have more mid rise apartments underway than they do .  Their downtown core up until recently had no residential living so all this is new and that is part of it.  

[AirNostrumMAD]

In 2021, downtown Nashville had 15,000 residents vs. 23,000 for Uptown in 2022 both approximately 2 Sq. Miles. 

Back in 2020, there were estimates for downtown Nashvilles population to grow to 21,000 by 2024. Not sure where it stands now but downtown Nashville has definitely been catching up pretty rapidly.

https://www.visitmusiccity.com/explore-nashville/about/statistics#

https://ctycms.com/nc-charlotte-south-end/docs/socc22-compressed-final.pdf

https://fox17.com/amp/news/local/downtown-nashville-expected-to-swell-to-21000-after-130-population-growth

Edited May 1 by AirNostrumMAD

[KJHburg]

Urban areas are starting to grow again after their Covid losses and of course Charlotte city slowed but is back to growing again now.  However large metro areas are still losing people or not growing at all.  The Sunbelt stars are all growing.  

https://www.brookings.edu/research/pandemic-driven-population-declines-in-large-urban-areas-are-slowing-or-reversing-latest-census-data-shows/

[KJHburg]

Mecklenburg County is the 4th fastest growing county over 1 M people in the USA bested by instate and larger rival Wake County.   Fastest growing county over 1 M is Collin which is the fast growing Dallas suburbs of Frisco, Plano etc. 

From the Triangle Biz Journal:

""The Triangle has been growing fast for years, but an analysis of new data on population growth across the country is eye-catching.

Among counties with more than 1 million people, Wake County was the second fastest-growing place in the country between 2020 and 2022. Numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show the county grew by 3.92 percent, from an estimated 1.13 million people to 1.17 million.

That growth rate trails only Collin County, Texas, which includes Plano and the suburbs north of Dallas. Incredibly, the growth rate for Collin County was almost double that of Wake County at 7.72 percent. Its population was estimated at 1.16 million in 2022.

Not surprisingly, the counties near the top of the list include several in Florida and Texas. In North Carolina, Mecklenburg County, which includes Charlotte, had the fourth-fastest rate of growth at 2.56 percent.""

[kermit]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:19 PM, KJHburg said:

Urban areas are starting to grow again after their Covid losses and of course Charlotte city slowed but is back to growing again now.  However large metro areas are still losing people or not growing at all.  The Sunbelt stars are all growing.  

https://www.brookings.edu/research/pandemic-driven-population-declines-in-large-urban-areas-are-slowing-or-reversing-latest-census-data-shows/

Yea, large metro growth has generally been driven by immigration rather than domestic moves. As immigration continues to languish well below peak Bush levels, large metro population numbers are taking a hit. If the spigot ever gets opened up again  then expect big city growth to quickly rebound to the slightly positive.

As national population growth rates continue their slide towards zero (we are around 0.1% now)  we are seeing significant slowing of Sunbelt growth in most (but not all) areas. Sunbelt metro pop growth is now basically a zero-sum game. In other words, Atlanta's gain is now quite literally Charlotte's loss.

Edited May 8 by kermit

[AirNostrumMAD]

Yay, Census #’s for metropolitan areas are released on Thursday. 
 

It’ll be interesting to me if there is a potential of metro areas combining (Raleigh/Durham mostly), which counties are added/subtracted from Charlotte of any.

Also curious of some of the larger dense metro areas and their recovery. 2022 should be getting back to a (new normal) mostly and 2023 I imagine for all areas will be the new normal period (and what I imagine to be healthy growth from there) with no more excuses for “but we had lockdowns still”.

I am *very* optimistic for urbanity, a more green future etc. I think the lockdowns and Covid will make Gen Z flock to large cities at a higher rate than what Millenials did. Even cities with low or no growth, I predict urban living will only accelerate. Maybe optimistic but that’s why I’m curious in the census numbers. 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/embargo-metropolitan-micropolitan-population-estimates.html