Charlotte area population statistics

[kayman]

On 5/15/2023 at 11:21 AM, AirNostrumMAD said:

Yay, Census #’s for metropolitan areas are released on Thursday. 
 

It’ll be interesting to me if there is a potential of metro areas combining (Raleigh/Durham mostly), which counties are added/subtracted from Charlotte of any.

Also curious of some of the larger dense metro areas and their recovery. 2022 should be getting back to a (new normal) mostly and 2023 I imagine for all areas will be the new normal period (and what I imagine to be healthy growth from there) with no more excuses for “but we had lockdowns still”.

I am *very* optimistic for urbanity, a more green future etc. I think the lockdowns and Covid will make Gen Z flock to large cities at a higher rate than what Millenials did. Even cities with low or no growth, I predict urban living will only accelerate. Maybe optimistic but that’s why I’m curious in the census numbers. 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/embargo-metropolitan-micropolitan-population-estimates.html

Those are population estimates not the official statistical numbers or designated statistical area from the 2020 US Census count. This is from the American Community Survey (ACS) guesstimate that comes out annually.  Historically, ACS level of accuracy has been shown to be very low. 

Edited May 16, 2023 by kayman

[15895]

2 hours ago, kayman said:

Those are population estimates not the official statistical numbers or designated statistical area from the 2020 US Census count. This is from the American Community Survey (ACS) guesstimate that comes out annually.  Historically, ACS level of accuracy has been shown to be very low. 

Ah, got it. So MSA designations will remain the same until 2030 - and all the estimates (ignoring the accuracy) are going to be for those specified areas as determined in 2020? 

[kermit]

52 minutes ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Ah, got it. So MSA designations will remain the same until 2030 - and all the estimates (ignoring the accuracy) are going to be for those specified areas as determined in 2020? 

I believe the OMB will release new metro delineations sometime this calendar year based on the 2020 data. Having a hard time finding the appropriate memo from the OMB -- but the Census Bureau does not define MSAs and boundary changes happen outside of the decennial census cycle.

Edited May 16, 2023 by kermit

[kayman]

5 hours ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

Ah, got it. So MSA designations will remain the same until 2030 - and all the estimates (ignoring the accuracy) are going to be for those specified areas as determined in 2020? 

The Office of Management & Budget (OMB) will be releasing the MSA/CSA designations this summer/fall.

[Take2]

On 4/29/2023 at 2:30 PM, AirNostrumMAD said:

Struggled with what topic to put this in, but it’s (multifamily) population related. 
 

Multifamily  units U/C & in pipeline updates from Fannie Mae. Going to show Charlotte and a few others as of 4Q22. Check out the link for short 3 pager Multifamily reports among metro areas https://multifamily.fanniemae.com/news-insights/metro-market-outlook


Charlotte:

 

 

So there are literally ZERO apartments/condos under construction in both Cabarrus and Union counties?  That doesnt add app to me for some reason.....

[15895]

4 hours ago, Take2 said:

So there are literally ZERO apartments/condos under construction in both Cabarrus and Union counties?  That doesnt add app to me for some reason.....

I mean, REIS, Costar, etc. There is no absolutely perfect data that has parameters that covers the entire country. I personally think that report is around the best one can get for a picture of MF construction and is based on an industry standard source and what Lenders rely on. The sources for that Data includes Moodys, REIS, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics, RealPage, Axiometrics, Yardi & CBRE. 

Though your point still stands & very valid.  sometimes data can miss things, but I think as long as one doesn’t take anything for the gospel and takes away trends and comes to their own conclusions based on rationality & other sources, that’s good enough. I think Fort Worth looks off. 

The one set of data  I don’t like is the Crane counts. It usually only focuses on select cities and/or specific crane operators. 

[QCxpat]

Today's CBJ - "Charlotte posts nation's fifth-largest population increase in 2022, Census Bureau estimates show" by Jenna Martin

Excerpts:  "The city of Charlotte added more than 15,000 people to its population count between 2021 and 2022, the nation's fifth-highest numeric increase during that span, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's latest estimates."  "Those additional 15,217 residents gave Charlotte an estimated population of nearly 900,000.  To be more precise, about 897,720 people lived in Charlotte as of July 1, 2022, according to the latest Census data, released this morning."  "That jump in population moved Charlotte back up on the list of largest U.S. cities."  "Charlotte ranked at 15th, after having slipped to 16th in 2021."  "The Queen City passed Indianapolis, which saw its resident count continue to decline." 

"The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metropolitan statistical area as a whole had an estimated population of 2,756,069, the latest Census figures showed."  "That's up by an estimated 48,700 people from 2021."  "Charlotte had the 23rd-highest population of the nation's metro areas." 

"Still, other cities and towns in the local metro area with populations of at least 50,000 grew at a faster clip than Charlotte over the year."  "Mooresville (106th) posted a 1.9% growth rate, adding an estimated 961 people to reach a population of 52,656.  Huntersville (110th) grew 1.8%.  It added 1,126 residents to total 63,035."  "Kannapolis (118th) and Concord (120th) also had a 1.7% growth rate.  Kannapolis added 949 people, with an estimated population of 55,448.  Concord grew by about 1,867 residents to reach 109,896." 

"Raleigh posted a 1.4% growth rate to total 476,587 residents."

Link:  https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/05/18/us-census-bureau-population-estimates-cities-metro.html

Table 3. The 15 Most Populous Cities on July 1, 2022
Rank	Area Name	State	2022 Total Population
1	New York city	New York	8,335,897
2	Los Angeles city	California	3,822,238
3	Chicago city	Illinois	2,665,039
4	Houston city	Texas	2,302,878
5	Phoenix city	Arizona	1,644,409
6	Philadelphia city	Pennsylvania	1,567,258
7	San Antonio city	Texas	1,472,909
8	San Diego city	California	1,381,162
9	Dallas city	Texas	1,299,544
10	Austin city	Texas	974,447
11	Jacksonville city	Florida	971,319
12	San Jose city	California	971,233
13	Fort Worth city	Texas	956,709
14	Columbus city	Ohio	907,971
15	Charlotte city	North Carolina	897,720
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Vintage 2022 Population Estimates, release date: May 2023.

Table 6. The 10 Most Populous U.S. Metro Areas on July 1, 2022, and Their Numeric Change Between July 1, 2021, and July 1, 2022
Rank	Metro Area	July 1, 2021	July 1, 2022	Numeric Change
1	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA	19,774,386	19,617,869	-156,517
2	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	12,972,847	12,872,322	-100,525
3	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	9,519,538	9,441,957	-77,581
4	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	7,773,289	7,943,685	170,396
5	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	7,215,837	7,340,118	124,281
6	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	6,364,907	6,373,756	8,849
7	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	6,253,320	6,241,164	-12,156
8	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA	6,143,138	6,222,106	78,968
9	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL	6,109,373	6,139,340	29,967
10	Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ	4,942,837	5,015,678	72,841
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Vintage 2022 Population Estimates, release date: May 2023.

 

U.S. Census Bureau Population estimates of North Carolina Cities with >50,000 as of 7/1/2022 

N.B.:  as of 7/1/2022, there were 798 U.S. cities with >50,000 est. pop.  (National Ranks in parentheses)

1.  Charlotte                     897,720         (15)

2.  Raleigh                          476,587         (41)

3.  Greensboro               301,115          (69)

4.  Durham                        291,928         (71)

5.  Winston-Salem        251,350         (91)

6.  Fayetteville                208,873         (113)

7.  Cary                                180,388         (143)

8.  Wilmington                120,324         (240)

9.  High Point                   115,067         (256)

10. Concord                      109,896        (283)

11. Asheville                       93,776         (359)

12. Greenville                    89,233         (386)

13. Gastonia                       82,653         (427)

14. Apex                                71,065         (526)

15. Jacksonville                 70,420        (537)

16. Huntersville                 63,035        (609)

17. Chapel Hill                    62,098        (623)

18. Burlington                     59,287        (655)

19. Kannapolis                     55,448       (723)

20. Rocky Mount                54,013       (744)

21. Mooresville                    52,656      (758)

22. Wake Forest                   51,113      (785)

 

U.S. Census Bureau Population estimates of South Carolina Cities with >50,000 as of 7/1/2022 

1.  Charleston                      153,672     (172)

2.  Columbia                          139,698     (197)

3.  North Charleston        118,608     (247)

4.  Mount Pleasant              94,545     (356)

5.  Rock Hill                              75,349     (493)

6.  Greenville                           72,310     (511)

7.  Summerville                       51,617     (773)

 

Links:  

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html   ("Large Southern Cities Lead Nation in Population Growth")

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html  ("Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Population Totals: 2021-2022")

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-cities-and-towns.html   ("City and Town Population Totals: 2020-2022")

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by QCxpat

[Temeteron]

41 minutes ago, QCxpat said:

Today's CBJ - "Charlotte posts nation's fifth-largest population increase in 2022, Census Bureau estimates show" by Jenna Martin

Excerpts:  "The city of Charlotte added more than 15,000 people to its population count between 2021 and 2022, the nation's fifth-highest numeric increase during that span, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's latest estimates."  "Those additional 15,217 residents gave Charlotte an estimated population of nearly 900,000.  To be more precise, about 897,720 people lived in Charlotte as of July 1, 2022, according to the latest Census data, released this morning."  "That jump in population moved Charlotte back up on the list of largest U.S. cities."  "Charlotte ranked at 15th, after having slipped to 16th in 2021."  "The Queen City passed Indianapolis, which saw its resident count continue to decline." 

"The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metropolitan statistical area as a whole had an estimated population of 2,756,069, the latest Census figures showed."  "That's up by an estimated 48,700 people from 2021."  "Charlotte had the 23rd-highest population of the nation's metro areas." 

"Still, other cities and towns in the local metro area with populations of at least 50,000 grew at a faster clip than Charlotte over the year."  "Mooresville (106th) posted a 1.9% growth rate, adding an estimated 961 people to reach a population of 52,656. Huntersville (110th) grew 1.8%.  It added 1,126 residents to total 63,035."  "Kannapolis (118th) and Concord (120th) also had a 1.7% growth rate.  Kannapolis added 949 people, with an estimated population of 55,448.  Concord grew by about 1,867 residents to reach 109,896." 

"Raleigh posted a 1.4% growth rate to total 476,587 residents."

Link:  https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2023/05/18/us-census-bureau-population-estimates-cities-metro.html

Table 3. The 15 Most Populous Cities on July 1, 2022
Rank	Area Name	State	2022 Total Population
1	New York city	New York	8,335,897
2	Los Angeles city	California	3,822,238
3	Chicago city	Illinois	2,665,039
4	Houston city	Texas	2,302,878
5	Phoenix city	Arizona	1,644,409
6	Philadelphia city	Pennsylvania	1,567,258
7	San Antonio city	Texas	1,472,909
8	San Diego city	California	1,381,162
9	Dallas city	Texas	1,299,544
10	Austin city	Texas	974,447
11	Jacksonville city	Florida	971,319
12	San Jose city	California	971,233
13	Fort Worth city	Texas	956,709
14	Columbus city	Ohio	907,971
15	Charlotte city	North Carolina	897,720
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Vintage 2022 Population Estimates, release date: May 2023.   Link:  https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/subcounty-metro-micro-estimates.html       ("Large Southern Cities Lead Nation in Population Growth")

I wonder why Austin had such a low number added.  Seems off tbh.  Also, does anyone know where to find the new metro numbers? Can’t seem to find them. I only see city numbers. 

[15895]

Working so I have only seen headlines. 
 

Annoyingly, which is just my ignorance, I didn’t realize the estimates would be July 2021-July 2022 (which makes sense) but is still a bit skewed for many areas by lengthier Covid restrictions but it looks like a bright future for our urban areas post-pandemic. I personally never bought the hype of the urban areas will die, we’ll all have bubbles, etc etc. 

[The ATX]

3 hours ago, Temeteron said:

I wonder why Austin had such a low number added.  Seems off tbh.  Also, does anyone know where to find the new metro numbers? Can’t seem to find them. I only see city numbers. 

Austin has gotten too expensive for a lot of people, and the growth has shifted to the suburbs.  Three of the five fastest growing cities in the U.S. (Georgetown, Kyle & Leander) are Austin suburbs.  Plus the Texas Leg effectively stopped Texas cities from annexing populated areas in 2018.

[CLT2014]

Here are the metro numbers. The big population growth trends continue to be in the Sun Belt metros. Of metros with more than 2 million people the only ones growing more than 1% are in the Sun Belt from Las Vegas and Phoenix through the exploding Texas metros and into the Carolinas and Florida. With flat nationwide population growth the areas that will grow will have higher household formation rates / fertility to replace their existing population and also capture people moving / leaving other areas for cross-metro relocation. Some metros are skewed towards one category. For example... Florida metros like Tampa and Orlando have among the lowest fertility rates, but are pulling in tons of retirees among the massive Baby Boomer cohort fleeing cold weather states to support their huge growth. These markets will likely be hurt long term as Boomers die (definitely aren't having kids save DeNiro) and are not replaced by as large a retiree population in Gen X. 

Orlando and Charlotte metros are on track to surpass St. Louis and Baltimore, but Orlando will stay ahead of Charlotte. 

 

3 hours ago, Temeteron said:

I wonder why Austin had such a low number added.  Seems off tbh.  Also, does anyone know where to find the new metro numbers? Can’t seem to find them. I only see city numbers. 

Interestingly at the metro-level, Austin was the fastest growing 2 million+ person metro area in the country at +2.6%. 

Dallas-Fort Worth +2.1%, San Antonio +1.9%, and Houston +1.7% are all rapidly growing as well supporting Texas' surging population growth. 

Edited May 18, 2023 by CLT2014

[DCMetroRaleigh]

After decades of robust growth, metro DC growth is flat. Wow 

[videtur quam contuor]

Another reminder that the best and most successful place for MLB expansion is New York. More than DC, Philly, and Atlanta combined and much more dense and far better transit. 

[15895]

23 minutes ago, DCMetroRaleigh said:

After decades of robust growth, metro DC growth is flat. Wow 

I’m surprised it grew given its still 2021 baked in. But really surprising is Seattle. 

I wonder (for all metro areas) how the losses/growth compares to the previous year.

[CLT2014]

1 hour ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

I’m surprised it grew given its still 2021 baked in. But really surprising is Seattle. 

I wonder (for all metro areas) how the losses/growth compares to the previous year.

Directional trends for metros remains largely the same on who is declining, who is flat, and who is growing, but the more recent data reflects an improved death rate as COVID-19 fatalities started to improve in 2022 (46% reduction in COVID deaths in 2022 over 2021) and should be reflective in each metro's population count slightly as every area was hit by COVID deaths. The next Census count should be even better as COVID-19 moves down on the list of leading causes of death. The impact of people giving up their leases due to remote work, heading home to mom & dad's house to save money, or working remote from an Airbnb in the Rocky Mountains will also be reduced onward. 

The birth rate remains very low nationwide as a driver of population growth. 

Edited May 18, 2023 by CLT2014

[kermit]

^ Declining death rates are certainly a plus for growth, but mostly just a temporary blip as boomers do the inevitable.

I suspect the biggest factor dragging large metro growth down as we move forward will be demographically-driven declines in college grads -- traditionally the most mobile segment of the population. 

The inter-urban arm wrestling that will happen to compete for these kids will be fierce.

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by kermit

[15895]

1 hour ago, CLT2014 said:

Directional trends for metros remains largely the same on who is declining, who is flat, and who is growing, but the more recent data reflects an improved death rate as COVID-19 fatalities started to improve in 2022 (46% reduction in COVID deaths in 2022 over 2021) and should be reflective in each metro's population count slightly as every area was hit by COVID deaths. The next Census count should be even better as COVID-19 moves down on the list of leading causes of death. The impact of people giving up their leases due to remote work, heading home to mom & dad's house to save money, or working remote from an Airbnb in the Rocky Mountains will also be reduced onward. 

The birth rate remains very low nationwide as a driver of population growth. 

Thanks! 

[KJHburg]

I think Charlotte really needs to promote our city as the 15th largest in the country and I know that is the city limits but San Antonio sure gets a lot of mileage as being the 7th largest city.  They use it everywhere talking about the city.  

also glad to see Greensboro over 300,000 people now as it has been right around that for several years. 

Edited May 18, 2023 by KJHburg

[KJHburg]

the view from Raleigh and the Triangle Biz Journal and this mentions county populations Meck vs Wake.

::The Queen City is outpacing Raleigh in terms of population growth since 2020, according to new U.S. Census numbers released Thursday looking at population estimates for cities with at least 50,000 people.  Charlotte's 2022 population is estimated at 897,720. Raleigh's is 476,587.  Charlotte's growth rate between 2020 and 2022 was 2.6 percent while Raleigh's was just under 2 percent when using the baseline figure from the 2020 Census. Charlotte was boosted by adding more than 15,000 people between 2021 and 2022, the fifth-highest numerical gain in the country.  The City of Oaks saw its population grow by more than 8,800 during the two-year period.""

""Despite Charlotte topping Raleigh, Wake County overall grew faster than Mecklenburg County – 4 percent to 2.7 percent – as the smaller towns in Wake see a flood of new residents.""

[CLT2014]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

I think Charlotte really needs to promote our city as the 15th largest in the country and I know that is the city limits but San Antonio sure gets a lot of mileage as being the 7th largest city.  They use it everywhere talking about the city.  

also glad to see Greensboro over 300,000 people now as it has been right around that for several years. 

I think most people see through that and it sounds like a mid-size city trying to pretend to be bigger than it is / embarrassing. Like literally 0 people think of San Antonio as a top 10 "city" along the likes of Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Miami, DC, et. 

[KJHburg]

8 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

I think most people see through that and it sounds like a mid-size city trying to pretend to be bigger than it is / embarrassing. Like literally 0 people think of San Antonio as a top 10 "city" along the likes of Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Miami, DC, et. 

I dont know most people could not tell you the population of their city much less the metro area,  People are really geographically challenged and that includes population stats. 

[LKN704]

1 hour ago, CLT2014 said:

I think most people see through that and it sounds like a mid-size city trying to pretend to be bigger than it is / embarrassing. Like literally 0 people think of San Antonio as a top 10 "city" along the likes of Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Miami, DC, et. 

Exactly...it's incredibly cringe and basically points to a city with a major identity crisis. 

It reminds me of the announcements CLT had one to two years ago from Vi Lyles that welcomed people to "America's 16th largest city." 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by LKN704

[Hushpuppy321]

Looks like Columbus, OH could be surpassed by Charlotte in population in the next 2 years.  What’s driving Jacksonville, FL population surge?  Seems like we’ll never catch them so Charlotte could be in for a long run at 14th Largest.

[CLT2014]

35 minutes ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

Looks like Columbus, OH could be surpassed by Charlotte in population in the next 2 years.  What’s driving Jacksonville, FL population surge?  Seems like we’ll never catch them so Charlotte could be in for a long run at 14th Largest.

Jacksonville is a popular location for Miami metro residents to move for a lower cost of living / less crowded area. Miami is the number one metro for net migration into Jacksonville. 

Jacksonville is also a top 5 metro for Silent Generation relocations (retirees moving to the beach / warmth) and a top 10 metro for relocations for Gen X (the group likely feeling priced out in higher cost of living cities as their families grew, kids are getting older, and their house is starting to feel cramped). 

Jacksonville has less population growth from the Millennial cohort. 

Edited May 19, 2023 by CLT2014

[Temeteron]

10 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

Jacksonville is a popular location for Miami metro residents to move for a lower cost of living / less crowded area. Miami is the number one metro for net migration into Jacksonville. 

Jacksonville is also a top 5 metro for Silent Generation relocations (retirees moving to the beach / warmth) and a top 10 metro for relocations for Gen X (the group likely feeling priced out in higher cost of living cities as their families grew, kids are getting older, and their house is starting to feel cramped). 

Jacksonville has less population growth from the Millennial cohort. 

Don’t forget Jacksonville is a combined city/county so not a fair comparison