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I'm planning on renting out my house to some Breitbart grifter for way too much money and then getting the hell out of town for that week. I typically take the light rail to my office just inside the

Or, decide when it's right to fight.  Imagine yourself in Berlin in 1933 knowing what we know now about the next 12 years.  Do you "look the other way" because your relationships are more important th

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Not to steer the discussion but does anyone have a similar position with me?  Let me provide the history of my position.  When Trump "won" the election in 2016, I quickly assessed that this person did not possess the intellectual or empathetic capacity to properly manage the US during any type of crisis.  And the first crisis that came along would result in an economic tsunami given his inability to set aside individual adulation.  I think if he wins, it's going to be a much longer haul back to any sense of social, political and economic normalcy.    He basks in "celebritism" and one week out of the spot light is way too long for his liking.  His cult-like following, a subset of an American political party, will take at minimum a decade to realize the emperor has no clothes and is a dangerous non-taxpaying-lying-ass con artist.  

I know we all have our biases and at times myopic lenses, but if any Democrat acted in this manner, he or she would be laughed off the stage by a large majority of the base.  How in the hell did he hijack the Republican Party?  I get it, I understand the a lot of GOPers drool over nonsensical conspiracy theories like it's a slice of NYC pie.  It's just amazing to me....how do they not realize that there is no there... there?  Nothing, a figment of imagination...delusion.  It's crazy because they think Biden/Dems are out to destroy the country, yet it's their painstaking conviction to a battered delusion that takes hold and is destroying democracy.   Basically, pouring the gas and lighting the fire and yet blaming the Fire Department for trying to save the place.

Is it just me?....I mean have these people  lost all ability to reason with the obvious..even these so-called evangelicals?  This nut is going to burn down the whole thing and then blame the Democrats or whoever....he's crazy as hell.  Because another crises is coming and he ain't got the wherewithal to fix anything...nothing.

BTW, I think he will win or come close enough to cause such a litigation battle, that the pillars of the US democracy will be strained to near collapse.  And his clueless followers will not realize the whole damn place is on fire because of this nut.

Edited by Durhamite
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^completely agree. I just can't understand why the GOP folded so easily though and became an authoritarian plutocracy. I think they've basically grown to ”believe” being a ”cultural warrior” on tv, while at the same time peddling influence to corporate benifactors, is what sells and thus  are 100% invested in creating strife (cultural) and confusion (hide plutocratic tendencies). 

I fervently hope this is the start of a huge decline in the party until they can attract back moderates who actually recognize the very serious problems we face and are interested in solving them. A landslide Tuesday, while unlikely, could create a very quick shift in their thinking and it's crucial the country have two or more parties. After all, most of their positions are based on focus groups (Dems too in many cases) and not science or deeply held beliefs so changing their mind should be really easy.

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2 hours ago, Durhamite said:

Not to steer the discussion but does anyone have a similar position with me?  Let me provide the history of my position.  When Trump "won" the election in 2016, I quickly assessed that this person did not possess the intellectual or empathetic capacity to properly manage the US during any type of crisis.  And the first crisis that came along would result in an economic tsunami given his inability to set aside individual adulation.  I think if he wins, it's going to be a much longer haul back to any sense of social, political and economic normalcy.    He basks in "celebritism" and one week out of the spot light is way too long for his liking.  His cult-like following, a subset of an American political party, will take at minimum a decade to realize the emperor has no clothes and is a dangerous non-taxpaying-lying-ass con artist.  

I know we all have our biases and at times myopic lenses, but if any Democrat acted in this manner, he or she would be laughed off the stage by a large majority of the base.  How in the hell did he hijack the Republican Party?  I get it, I understand the a lot of GOPers drool over nonsensical conspiracy theories like it's a slice of NYC pie.  It's just amazing to me....how do they not realize that there is no there... there?  Nothing, a figment of imagination...delusion.  It's crazy because they think Biden/Dems are out to destroy the country, yet it's their painstaking conviction to a battered delusion that takes hold and is destroying democracy.   Basically, pouring the gas and lighting the fire and yet blaming the Fire Department for trying to save the place.

Is it just me?....I mean have these people  lost all ability to reason with the obvious..even these so-called evangelicals?  This nut is going to burn down the whole thing and then blame the Democrats or whoever....he's crazy as hell.  Because another crises is coming and he ain't got the wherewithal to fix anything...nothing.

BTW, I think he will win or come close enough to cause such a litigation battle, that the pillars of the US democracy will be strained to near collapse.  And his clueless followers will not realize the whole damn place is on fire because of this nut.

I consider myself "spiritual" but not an organized religion guy - being a Gay human, religious organizations haven't been exactly welcoming.  I have taken a lot of pleasure reading what this guy posts...  https://johnpavlovitz.com/

As it relates to this site in general, the fact that so-called "fiscal conservatives" support suburban sprawl and development policies that ignore fiscal efficiencies stuns me.  

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22 hours ago, kermit said:

While I spend a bunch of time worrying about Tuesday (and beyond), I just can't see a realistic path to victory for donald.

He won in 2016 by a total of 77,000 votes spread across 3 states. Since then he has killed off nearly four times that number due to his  virus management incompetence. I just don't see what donald has done to add a single new voter since 2016?

  • He said that the military (and both living and dead vets) are 'losers and suckers' / Gold Star families gave him COVID
  • He has paid less income tax than any of the working class people out there who he considers his base
  • Hell, he has told WOMEN (half of the electorate!) to shove it multiple times
  • He has palpable disdain for seniors ("grandma needs to die to help the economy")
  • He is blatantly racist ("will you renounce white supremacy?")
  • He is cruel (kids are still in cages)

The number of times he gave the middle finger to a huge group of constituents are too numerous to list. So in addition to adding any voters he has managed to create legions of angry voters who want him out badly enough to stand in voting lines for hours to do it (look at early voting turnout numbers).  Regardless of electoral college BS, I just don't see how the math works to get him reelected in a fair vote. All this is even before you account for him not running against Hillary, he has tried hard to vilify Joe, but he just couldn't do it.

Having said all that, there is certainly reason to fear that he (and/or his foreign agents) will find a way to steal the election. Since I am very concerned about this possibility I'll take this opportunity to vent a little (forgive me):

I am in my mid 50s, white, comfortably middle class, native North Carolinian who owns a pickup and has never been a registered democrat. My favorite things are drinking beer, watching tv while eating ice cream and then drinking more beer. Despite that, if donald wins and I get the tiniest documentable whiff that he stole his victory, then I will consider American democracy to be irretrievably broken. If that happens I will spend the remainder of my years burning this mutherfcker to the ground.  I doubt I'll be alone.

 

Great summary about all the reasons why it should be very hard for Trump to win.   But, how many  voters who are not core Trumpists will be persuaded by family and friends and neighbors to support him?  Of all the dangerous things Trump has done is both-sideism.   There are  A LOT of low-information voters out there who genuinely believe that "both sides" are equally horrible but one side is inevitably "less bad" or "more safe".   I think the election will come down to the "less bad" / "more safe" voters?    I'm stocking up on beer and ice cream tomorrow afternoon.  Friendly's.  

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59 minutes ago, Phillydog said:

Great summary about all the reasons why it should be very hard for Trump to win.   But, how many  voters who are not core Trumpists will be persuaded by family and friends and neighbors to support him?  Of all the dangerous things Trump has done is both-sideism.   There are  A LOT of low-information voters out there who genuinely believe that "both sides" are equally horrible but one side is inevitably "less bad" or "more safe".   I think the election will come down to the "less bad" / "more safe" voters?    I'm stocking up on beer and ice cream tomorrow afternoon.  Friendly's.  

All of my siblings were bullied into voting for trump by my parents. They're in their early 20s and weren't going to vote but we're hounded and basically ambushed to a voting location while already trapped in the car with them.

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5 minutes ago, Nick2 said:

All of my siblings were bullied into voting for trump by my parents. They're in their early 20s and weren't going to vote but we're hounded and basically ambushed to a voting location while already trapped in the car with them.

This is why anonymity and privacy at the polls is so critical

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11 hours ago, tozmervo said:

This is why anonymity and privacy at the polls is so critical

Yes!

I really like exit polls but not for the supposed value they offer. People willingly tell interviewers their voting choice. Some prefer not, and some dissemble, many choose to respond honestly, even proudly.  The point is that it seems safe to ask and answer, whatever one's answer and have it openly on the record. 

As a counterpoint, the demonstration and police over-response in Belarus the past month due to the fake result returning Lukashenko to another term as president have led to this "joke":  " Uniformed police, faces covered, no name badges, stop car and pull man from behind wheel. "Wait, wait" he cries, "I voted for Lukashenko!" The beating continues as the police say "You lie, no one voted for Lukashenko."

Edited by tarhoosier
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html

That doesn't seem to tie with the most recent NC polls where it's avg of Trump +0.2, unless you're saying the early voting was reflective of biden spread during October.

Even then, of the 32 polls since Oct 1, only 3 did Biden outperform the margin or error, while Trump outperformed the MoE once.

No prediction from me, but I think saying "game over barring shenanigans" is a very Trumpian statement -_-

 

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43 minutes ago, atlrvr said:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_biden-6744.html

That doesn't seem to tie with the most recent NC polls where it's avg of Trump +0.2, unless you're saying the early voting was reflective of biden spread during October.

Even then, of the 32 polls since Oct 1, only 3 did Biden outperform the margin or error, while Trump outperformed the MoE once.

No prediction from me, but I think saying "game over barring shenanigans" is a very Trumpian statement -_-

 

Shenanigans = Trump going to court to prevent legally cast ballots from being counted.  Which, his surrogates have said he will do and which certain state GOPs are doing. And RCP? Why don't you just say "my crazy uncle says Biden ate a baby"?  The Washington Times and Spectator are about as  intellectually equal to The New Yorker and The Atlantic  as Kip from Napoleon Dynamite is to Luke Kuechly physically, yet RCP has no problem putting crazy psychopath wingnut up against Ta-Nehisi Coates for "balance."

 All that said, I'm just some rando on the intrawebs, so if we're gonna go all BSAB let's put some Krispy Kremes on it.  Say, five dozen?  Or we can just pretend that Rasmussen and Zogby and Trafalgar have a clue what they're doing till tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, atlrvr said:

Fascinating anecdotes aside, Trump still outperformed RCP's own island of misfit polls by 2.7 pts in 2016 in NC, says one random guy on the interwebs to another...

Even though UP occasionally exasperates me, it is a fun place for me to - usually - be silly, look at cool photos, and and get the pulse of the 704.

As such, make you a deal: if I am wrong - as in, Biden wins by less than 3% or outright loses - I'll buy a drink on the roof of that bar all the cool kids take pics from Uptown when C19 is over for any UPer who shows up (valid handles only).  And if you're wrong, you do the same?  Using that filthy lucre in the coffers of UP?

I'm good for it....

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I'm certainly not cool enough for a rooftop bar, and don't want to embarrass myself with ordering either not rare enough or too cliche a bourbon, but I will take that bet with a Friday lunch for the 2 of us at either Seoul Food Meat  Co and I'll pretend to know the K-pop songs in and bob my head off beat OR at Noble Smoke and I'll opine how it's close but you can taste the subtle differences in forest used for wood smoke at "real" Lexington bbq.

Must be actual Tyrone Wiggum alias guy, not some rando proxy sit-in who likes meat.

 

6:15pm edit: Must be accepted by poll closing time, cause ya know...

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I think 538 is the best bet for poll numbers. Not all are created equal and they spend a lot of time analyzing the polls themselves in order to come up with a composite. They have nc @ biden +2 last I looked which is within the margin of error. Same for Cunningham. Signs like it'll be a close call here. Nationally if either pa or fl go blue it's curtains for Trump and a lot of lawyers are gonna make some good change.;-(

Edited by elrodvt
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On 11/1/2020 at 6:51 PM, Durhamite said:

I know we all have our biases and at times myopic lenses, but if any Democrat acted in this manner, he or she would be laughed off the stage by a large majority of the base.  How in the hell did he hijack the Republican Party?  I get it, I understand the a lot of GOPers drool over nonsensical conspiracy theories like it's a slice of NYC pie.  It's just amazing to me....how do they not realize that there is no there... there?  Nothing, a figment of imagination...delusion.  It's crazy because they think Biden/Dems are out to destroy the country, yet it's their painstaking conviction to a battered delusion that takes hold and is destroying democracy.   Basically, pouring the gas and lighting the fire and yet blaming the Fire Department for trying to save the place.

Is it just me?....I mean have these people  lost all ability to reason with the obvious..even these so-called evangelicals?  This nut is going to burn down the whole thing and then blame the Democrats or whoever....he's crazy as hell.  Because another crises is coming and he ain't got the wherewithal to fix anything...nothing.

I have been saying the same thing since 2016.  How did the GOP just roll over and let Trump hijack the party?  I am so middle of the road politically, its crazy.  But seriously, after his diss of the GOP 20+ years ago, they let him take over and consider himself Republican?  Watch - after however many years he is in office, he will denounce the GOP.

On 11/1/2020 at 9:47 PM, kermit said:

I am in my mid 50s, white, comfortably middle class, native North Carolinian who owns a pickup and has never been a registered democrat. My favorite things are drinking beer, watching tv while eating ice cream and then drinking more beer. Despite that, if donald wins and I get the tiniest documentable whiff that he stole his victory, then I will consider American democracy to be irretrievably broken. If that happens I will spend the remainder of my years burning this mutherfcker to the ground.  I doubt I'll be alone.

 

We are birds of a feather - less the ice cream part! :)  I agree with pretty much everything you said.  I am going to remain cautiously optimistic that the adults in the room (that I have mentioned on this board several times before) will actually step up and send the bad people to detention.  We cannot survive four more years of this administration.  Should he emerge victorious, I am honestly scared for this country.  For ourselves, and for our stance in the world.

20 hours ago, Phillydog said:

Great summary about all the reasons why it should be very hard for Trump to win.   But, how many  voters who are not core Trumpists will be persuaded by family and friends and neighbors to support him?  Of all the dangerous things Trump has done is both-sideism.   There are  A LOT of low-information voters out there who genuinely believe that "both sides" are equally horrible but one side is inevitably "less bad" or "more safe".   I think the election will come down to the "less bad" / "more safe" voters?    I'm stocking up on beer and ice cream tomorrow afternoon.  Friendly's.  

We should have a beer drinking, ice cream eating rooftop get together!  But seriously, I agree with you on the "least worst" scenario.  By no means am I an ardent supporter of Biden/Harris, but it is all the Democratic Party could offer up.  At this point, my friend's 9 year old has more class, intellect and smarts than the man in the oval office currently.

At any point, tomorrow will still arrive, and we are going to go about our lives, work, etc.  Hopefully, I will not have that unreal sinking feeling in my stomach when I wake up in the morning.  Not sure if I want to stay up to watch any of this tonight.  Not sure which would be worse.  Staying up and not being able to sleep, or trying to go to sleep worrying about what holy hell I could wake up to.  To all the UP'ers, be safe!!

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