Amazon: The Thread | 5,000 Jobs | 1M SQFT in Nashville Yards

[markhollin]

Transportation expert says Nashville has a lot to offer as possible HQ2 locale:

https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/news/2017/09/21/transportation-consultant-praises-tn-biz.html

[markhollin]

CoStar Real Estate Pros out of Washington DC says Nashville is ranked #4 in Top 5 of candidates for HQ2. From todays Nashville Post:

Nashville may not eventually land Amazon’s second headquarters.

But in the opinion of many of the nation’s commercial real estate professionals, the city ranks highly regarding its chances of winning what could be the equivalent of a $5 billion investment.

CoStar, a Washington D.C.-based commercial real estate online information source, surveyed hundreds of commercial real estate professionals to gauge their thoughts on the matter. Asked if they could predict (actually, if they could bet on) a winner, the pros’ collective top five were (listed alphabetically) Atlanta, Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver and Nashville.

As a group, the CRE officials like Nashville for sporting, CoStar.com's Mark Heschmeyer writes, “a hip, strong cultural scene, large growth capability, affordable living and occupancy cost and a reputation as an up-and-coming metro area.” The surveyed folks also referenced Amazon having more than 7,000 employees in Tennessee (highlighted by a 1.2 million-square-foot Amazon fulfillment center in Chattanooga).

In addition, and somewhat relatedly, Heschmeyer writes that various senior-level managers with CoStar's analytics team are assessing Amazon’s request-for-proposals requirements and the Seattle-based company’s list of preferences for a second headquarters. The analysis will “identify specific development projects capable of handling the HQ2 requirement within those markets,” with the summary to be soon published.

Full report from CoStar here:

http://www.costar.com/News/Article/CRE-Pros-Rate-Five-US-Cities-as-Top-Prospects-for-Landing-Amazons-HQ2/194240
 

[MLBrumby]

I just don't see Denver and Even DFW being "East Coast". Nashville is a stretch, but IMHO Atlanta has more negatives than Nashville.  From other blogs, I understand the favorite is suburban DC. likely to be VA. 

[Flatrock]

This article summarizes a poll of commercial real estate pro's and what cities are most likely for Amazon HQ2. 5 cities are mentioned as the odds-on favorites.  Austin was in pole position,  followed pretty closely by Dallas.  Interestingly,  the article said "Austin and Dallas are followed closely by Atlanta and Nashville".  The last of the 5 was Denver.  The article (from a Dallas newspaper)  is a short,  easy read.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2017/09/22/real-estate-execs-give-austin-best-odds-landing-amazon-hq

Edited September 23, 2017 by Flatrock

[jmtunafish]

On 9/22/2017 at 8:34 AM, markhollin said:

CoStar Real Estate Pros out of Washington DC says Nashville is ranked #4 in Top 5 of candidates for HQ2. From todays Nashville Post:

Nashville may not eventually land Amazon’s second headquarters.

But in the opinion of many of the nation’s commercial real estate professionals, the city ranks highly regarding its chances of winning what could be the equivalent of a $5 billion investment.

CoStar, a Washington D.C.-based commercial real estate online information source, surveyed hundreds of commercial real estate professionals to gauge their thoughts on the matter. Asked if they could predict (actually, if they could bet on) a winner, the pros’ collective top five were (listed alphabetically) Atlanta, Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver and Nashville.

As a group, the CRE officials like Nashville for sporting, CoStar.com's Mark Heschmeyer writes, “a hip, strong cultural scene, large growth capability, affordable living and occupancy cost and a reputation as an up-and-coming metro area.” The surveyed folks also referenced Amazon having more than 7,000 employees in Tennessee (highlighted by a 1.2 million-square-foot Amazon fulfillment center in Chattanooga).

In addition, and somewhat relatedly, Heschmeyer writes that various senior-level managers with CoStar's analytics team are assessing Amazon’s request-for-proposals requirements and the Seattle-based company’s list of preferences for a second headquarters. The analysis will “identify specific development projects capable of handling the HQ2 requirement within those markets,” with the summary to be soon published.

Full report from CoStar here:

http://www.costar.com/News/Article/CRE-Pros-Rate-Five-US-Cities-as-Top-Prospects-for-Landing-Amazons-HQ2/194240
 

 

9 minutes ago, Flatrock said:

This article summarizes a poll of commercial real estate pro's and what cities are most likely for Amazon HQ2. 5 cities are mentioned as the odds-on favorites.  Austin was in pole position,  followed pretty closely by Dallas.  Interestingly,  the article said "Austin and Dallas are followed closely by Atlanta and Nashville".  The last of the 5 was Denver.  The article (from a Dallas newspaper)  is a short,  easy read.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2017/09/22/real-estate-execs-give-austin-best-odds-landing-amazon-hq

The Dallas News article is citing the same CoStar report posted above.  Just FYI.

[Flatrock]

3 minutes ago, jmtunafish said:

The Dallas News article is citing the same CoStar report posted above.  Just FYI.

Oh shoot!  Sorry 'bout that!  Missed it.  

[jmtunafish]

Just now, Flatrock said:

Oh shoot!  Sorry 'bout that!  Missed it.  

It's all good.  It was a good report that was worth repeating.

[urbanplanet17]

One strong factor Nashville has going for it is that it's the current "IT" city.

Bezos is the type that likes to transform a place he makes home, so Nashville would be a good "blank slate" for him.

[urbanplanet17]

On 9/22/2017 at 10:53 AM, MLBrumby said:

I just don't see Denver and Even DFW being "East Coast". Nashville is a stretch, but IMHO Atlanta has more negatives than Nashville.  From other blogs, I understand the favorite is suburban DC. likely to be VA. 

The only negative I would say going against Atlanta is their traffic. The city grew so fast that they failed to create a proper street grid and secondary road capacity to relieve their highway traffic volume

With Nashville, the only negatives would be the lack of transit and relatively weak airport (yes, BNA has the direct flights, but there's something to be said about a city with Hub status, especially Delta Hub status with Amazon being in Seattle).

As far as Denver, besides the time zone difference, they're also facing a severe housing shortage and have already become fairly expensive.  Meanwhile,  Dallas lacks "rapid" transit (it has tons of light rail, but no commuter / heavy rail infrastructure).

EDIT: As far as DC, they have their COL going against them, and possibly the height restrictions because of the Feds if Amazon has any desire to go vertical with HQ2.

Frankly, there really is no "perfect" city for Amazon. All of them have their own share of faults.

Edited September 23, 2017 by urbanplanet17

[Pyramid Scheme]

8 hours ago, urbanplanet17 said:

Frankly, there really is no "perfect" city for Amazon. All of them have their own share of faults.

They should just build their own city and name it "Amazon". It should be in West Virginia.

[BnaBreaker]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

They should just build their own city and name it "Amazon". It should be in West Virginia.

At this point they could probably just buy the actual Amazon rainforest.

[satalac]

On 9/22/2017 at 8:34 AM, markhollin said:

CoStar Real Estate Pros out of Washington DC says Nashville is ranked #4 in Top 5 of candidates for HQ2. From todays Nashville Post:

Nashville may not eventually land Amazon’s second headquarters.

But in the opinion of many of the nation’s commercial real estate professionals, the city ranks highly regarding its chances of winning what could be the equivalent of a $5 billion investment.

CoStar, a Washington D.C.-based commercial real estate online information source, surveyed hundreds of commercial real estate professionals to gauge their thoughts on the matter. Asked if they could predict (actually, if they could bet on) a winner, the pros’ collective top five were (listed alphabetically) Atlanta, Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver and Nashville.

As a group, the CRE officials like Nashville for sporting, CoStar.com's Mark Heschmeyer writes, “a hip, strong cultural scene, large growth capability, affordable living and occupancy cost and a reputation as an up-and-coming metro area.” The surveyed folks also referenced Amazon having more than 7,000 employees in Tennessee (highlighted by a 1.2 million-square-foot Amazon fulfillment center in Chattanooga).

In addition, and somewhat relatedly, Heschmeyer writes that various senior-level managers with CoStar's analytics team are assessing Amazon’s request-for-proposals requirements and the Seattle-based company’s list of preferences for a second headquarters. The analysis will “identify specific development projects capable of handling the HQ2 requirement within those markets,” with the summary to be soon published.

Full report from CoStar here:

http://www.costar.com/News/Article/CRE-Pros-Rate-Five-US-Cities-as-Top-Prospects-for-Landing-Amazons-HQ2/194240
 

That's weird when talking about Nashville that they say Tennessee is highlighted by the Chattanooga fulfillment center when Murfreesboro (1 million sqft) and Lebanon (1.2 million sqft) has similar sized fulfilling centers.

[markhollin]

From today's Nashville Post:

Atlanta-based logistics pro shares thoughts on Nashville's chances of landing retail giant

John Haber is founder and CEO of Atlanta-based Spend Management Experts, a company that focuses on issues related to retail, logistics and transportation.

Looking for a non-Nashvillian’s take on the city’s chances of landing what will be a second Amazon headquarters, the Post recently solicited his take.  

Why does Nashville have a shot at Amazon?

Nashville currently is home to 2,500 local Amazon employees at warehouses in Murfreesboro and Lebanon and a sorting center in Nashville.

Half of the U.S. population lives within a 650-mile radius of Nashville. In addition, Nashville’s airport this year has gained improved connectivity to the West Coast through new nonstop flights to and from Seattle and San Francisco. British Airways also has planned nonstop service out of Nashville to London.

In terms of cargo, American, Delta, FedEx, Southwest and United operate cargo facilities at the airport. One of the items Amazon is looking for is air capacity and Nashville should be able to provide this.

Tennessee is a business friendly state so it’s likely the state will offer incentives that Amazon expects. Also, lack of a state income tax or personal or payroll taxes in Tennessee are factors.

In terms of recruitment opportunities, the Nashville area has 18 colleges and universities with 123,000 students enrolled and roughly 30,000 annual graduates.

What are the city's shortcomings?

In terms of what Amazon is looking for, there are a number of other cities that appear to be better qualified than Nashville.

As noted in several publications, lack of public transportation is [a concern] but not entirely a deal breaker.

Nashville may be considered located too close in proximity to Amazon’s air hub in Ohio, and air operations is one of the points that Amazon is using to determine the next location.

And there could be a competition for labor. A number of warehousing facilities and manufacturing dot the area around Nashville. And would Nashville be able to provide the tech talent needed for Amazon’s operations as well?
 
What peer city (Austin, Charlotte, etc.) would give Nashville the stiffest challenge?

Both Austin and Charlotte will give Nashville a run for its money. Austin is known as a tech hub and has the tech talent covered — hands down.

Charlotte’s location is a big plus but the airport needs upgrading. In addition, it has a direct route, via Norfolk Southern, to the Charleston port. It will also have a direct route, via CSX, to the Wilmington (N.C.) port. Remember, Amazon’s Chinese acquisition holds a NVOCC license and this would present a great opportunity to utilize via either of these ports. Amazon would have particular influence on the smaller Wilmington port as it is looking to grow and compete against its neighbors. Charleston may be a bit more difficult with BMW, Boeing and Volvo flexing their might. Next on the list is Savannah, known as a retail port — biggest port for Home Depot’s imports.
 
What are some options for sites in or near the city?

Plenty of land seems to be available in the Nashville area. In terms of a campus, they may want to look at Brentwood, home to OHL (now Geodis), or even Franklin, home to Nissan North America, among others. Both areas are within easy driving of downtown Nashville and the airport.
 
Do you think Amazon will cut the list to, say, five finalists?

I’d be surprised if Amazon announced a top five. It seems like they make a decision and announce it rather than announcing a whittled down selection pool.

[Binbin98]

46 minutes ago, markhollin said:

From today's Nashville Post:

Atlanta-based logistics pro shares thoughts on Nashville's chances of landing retail giant

John Haber is founder and CEO of Atlanta-based Spend Management Experts, a company that focuses on issues related to retail, logistics and transportation.

Looking for a non-Nashvillian’s take on the city’s chances of landing what will be a second Amazon headquarters, the Post recently solicited his take.  

Why does Nashville have a shot at Amazon?

Nashville currently is home to 2,500 local Amazon employees at warehouses in Murfreesboro and Lebanon and a sorting center in Nashville.

Half of the U.S. population lives within a 650-mile radius of Nashville. In addition, Nashville’s airport this year has gained improved connectivity to the West Coast through new nonstop flights to and from Seattle and San Francisco. British Airways also has planned nonstop service out of Nashville to London.

In terms of cargo, American, Delta, FedEx, Southwest and United operate cargo facilities at the airport. One of the items Amazon is looking for is air capacity and Nashville should be able to provide this.

Tennessee is a business friendly state so it’s likely the state will offer incentives that Amazon expects. Also, lack of a state income tax or personal or payroll taxes in Tennessee are factors.

In terms of recruitment opportunities, the Nashville area has 18 colleges and universities with 123,000 students enrolled and roughly 30,000 annual graduates.

What are the city's shortcomings?

In terms of what Amazon is looking for, there are a number of other cities that appear to be better qualified than Nashville.

As noted in several publications, lack of public transportation is [a concern] but not entirely a deal breaker.

Nashville may be considered located too close in proximity to Amazon’s air hub in Ohio, and air operations is one of the points that Amazon is using to determine the next location.

And there could be a competition for labor. A number of warehousing facilities and manufacturing dot the area around Nashville. And would Nashville be able to provide the tech talent needed for Amazon’s operations as well?
 
What peer city (Austin, Charlotte, etc.) would give Nashville the stiffest challenge?

Both Austin and Charlotte will give Nashville a run for its money. Austin is known as a tech hub and has the tech talent covered — hands down.

Charlotte’s location is a big plus but the airport needs upgrading. In addition, it has a direct route, via Norfolk Southern, to the Charleston port. It will also have a direct route, via CSX, to the Wilmington (N.C.) port. Remember, Amazon’s Chinese acquisition holds a NVOCC license and this would present a great opportunity to utilize via either of these ports. Amazon would have particular influence on the smaller Wilmington port as it is looking to grow and compete against its neighbors. Charleston may be a bit more difficult with BMW, Boeing and Volvo flexing their might. Next on the list is Savannah, known as a retail port — biggest port for Home Depot’s imports.
 
What are some options for sites in or near the city?

Plenty of land seems to be available in the Nashville area. In terms of a campus, they may want to look at Brentwood, home to OHL (now Geodis), or even Franklin, home to Nissan North America, among others. Both areas are within easy driving of downtown Nashville and the airport.
 
Do you think Amazon will cut the list to, say, five finalists?

I’d be surprised if Amazon announced a top five. It seems like they make a decision and announce it rather than announcing a whittled down selection pool.

If Austin didn't exist I feel that Nashville would have an very very good shot at winning this, but if I was amazon i Would hands down pick Austin for my headquarters mainly due to it being like Nashville but with the tech component down. If it was a Healthcare/Logistics company on the other hand, than maybe Nashville would fit the bill more than Austin. But this headquarters won't go to Nashville because of it being the new headquarters of the TECH giant amazon, a field which Nashville is lacking in compared to other cities (although maybe in the future the tech scene here will get better)

Edited September 25, 2017 by Binbin98

[Guest]

I think we have the advantage due to Nashville being the epicenter of the Healthcare. I strongly believe that Amazon wants to enter the healthcare market and Nashville could springboard that entry.

[Binbin98]

I haven't heard that from amazon but if so you could be correct. Listen guys I WANT this to go to Nashville. It honestly would be perfect right now and would secure economic growth for awhile in the future for Nashville, I'm just not getting my hopes up just yet. I will say the River North site seems perfect for amazon, and that could be a really really attractive site for Amazon as not many other cities vying for the HQ2 have a plan already laid out like that, including Austin.

[nashvylle]

from a poster in the Austin section of SSP:

I hate to break it to everyone but there is zero chance Amazon picks Austin. They are going to DC. They own the Washington Post; Bezos apparently recently bought a $20M+ house in the DC area; and he is interested in getting more involved in politics / national policy. This "competition" is designed for one purpose, and one purpose only: to pressure DC into giving as much public money as possible to Amazon to "lure" Amazon to where its already going

I don't think anyone but Bezos knows where he is going. 

[BnaBreaker]

Who knows if that's true or not, but I doubt him buying a house in the DC area has much to do with anything.  Jeff Bezos is buying a house in DC because Jeff Bezos wants to be more involved in politics.  It doesn't mean the HQ of his company is following.

Edited September 25, 2017 by BnaBreaker

[Pdt2f]

3 minutes ago, BnaBreaker said:

Who knows if that's true or not, but I doubt him buying a house in the DC area has much to do with anything.  Jeff Bezos is buying a house in DC because Jeff Bezos wants to be more involved in politics.  It doesn't mean the HQ of his company if following.

That's what I keep thinking. I just don't think amazon would move a $5 billion, 50,000 employee headquarters because of the possible political ambitions of its owner, or because he bought a house there. It kind of reminds me how every time UT was on a coaching search their fans would swear up and down that Jon Gruden was going to Knoxville because his wife was from there and they had a home in the area. 

[urbanplanet17]

8 hours ago, nashvylle said:

from a poster in the Austin section of SSP:

I hate to break it to everyone but there is zero chance Amazon picks Austin. They are going to DC. They own the Washington Post; Bezos apparently recently bought a $20M+ house in the DC area; and he is interested in getting more involved in politics / national policy. This "competition" is designed for one purpose, and one purpose only: to pressure DC into giving as much public money as possible to Amazon to "lure" Amazon to where its already going

I don't think anyone but Bezos knows where he is going. 

I'd be surprised if they go to DC. They're going to choose a relatively low COL city. As the Bloomberg article from a week ago mentioned, while the executives with multi-million dollar compensation packages may like extremely expensive Boston, the employees are looking for a slower pace of life where their money will go further.

If I had to draw up a list of most likely contenders, I would say:

-Philadelphia

-Dallas

-Atlanta

-Chicago

Dark Horses

Nashville

Detroit

^^^And of the above cities, the choice will likely come down to who offers the best incentives and has the most amount of cheap real estate available.  

Edited September 26, 2017 by urbanplanet17

[NashvilleObserver]

So... basically nobody knows what the answer will be until the announcement is made

[urbanplanet17]

10 minutes ago, NashvilleObserver said:

So... basically nobody knows what the answer will be until the announcement is made

True, but it's fun to speculate. 

[Hey_Hey]

While I admit Nashville is unlikely to be picked for the Amazon HQ2, but I do think the pitch that Nashville can make will be a good exercise into how to draw a very large company into the city. I would love to see our city leaders think outside the box and dream big for the pitch. This is a time that the state will pitch in considerable funds toward the effort.  It is very unlikely that the winning package will simply provide $5 billion to Amazon. Instead I see a combination of traditional incentive packages (real estate tax abatement, tax credits per job created, etc) plus educational partnerships and large scale public projects.  

This is the time that the city could dream big and get the state to pledge funds toward upgrading the Music City Star to function as true commuter transit.  They could also pledge funds for LRT to the airport and a north-south LRT line that would abut the River North property.  Put Amazon's HQ2 at the center of the upgraded transit offerings but also understand that the proposed lines would provide ideal service to a large chunk of the businesses and residents in Nashville. 

The very fact that Amazon is seeking a place with mass transit gives me hope that our state leaders see that private businesses are looking for places that are willing to invest pubic funds into infrastructure improvements that support mobility, productivity, and business. 

[xtianpoop]

I may be an outlier here, but I wish Amazon would break up the lot a bit more strategically. I understand why many metros are excitedly rushing to put together their best packages, projections, and accolades, but it as I see it now, there isn't a perfect city for HQ2. That is, there isn't one city that hits every single mark 100%. Especially on the, "will x city be able to fill 50k jobs?" notion. Beyond the 10-years+ plus expected rollout, I wouldn't hesitate to say that 50% of the jobs will come from domestic immigration. That Nashville can't fill the jobs now, doesn't knock it out of the running. 

On 9/14/2017 at 10:53 AM, urbanplanet17 said:

"He said there were multiple levels of government unified and everyone saying, 'We have one bid for you and we're all going to support this,' Baruah recalled. "In Michigan, people were tripping over each other and there were multiple bids and no alignment. People were competing against each other and we wanted a region where if we had a problem, we knew  the   region would come together to solve the problem as opposed to pointing fingers.

I want to highlight the above, and posit the following: would a statewide effort led by Nashville weigh more heavily in the favor of landing Amazon?

Surely not every office communicates with the frequency of needing a 10-minute minimum walk from one building to the next. Amazon Web Services, for instance, could exist in its own right. With data center expansion, old-school-industry strong software companies, top-5 smartest grids in the world, reliable & inexpensive electricity (not to mention 1gb-10gb internet speeds), and a fiber-optic line direct connection to ATL...couldn't there be a strength for AWS or another strategic infrastructure of the Amazon company to locate in SE TN (Chattanooga or thereabouts)? This brings me to my greater point, but before I go there, Tennessee cities all have their strengths on a competitive level enough to elicit all the needs of an HQ2. Dare I say even more than we may realize.*

Greater point: Stemming from the success & idea of the state aligning all levels of government to secure the most competitive offer, could you imagine the success that could be had regionally? The most obvious triangle to me would include the two points of Nashville & Atlanta (including Marietta, Roswell, Chattanooga, Murfreesboro, WilCo) anchoring the partnership, with the other candidates being Charlotte (a personal favorite for HQ2 if had to go to SE city, sorry Nashville, you are in my dreams) or Birmingham. Birmingham the least, least, least likely, BUT I include because the existing connections to the 2 major points of NSH and ATL are stronger than were we to include Charlotte.  

Details and semantics aside, what do we think about a regional (state to literal, southeast region) approach? 

* Fun side-note while we're noting Amazon connections: a lesser-realized connection is that Nash and Chatt have so far been the only cities to host the worldwide Alexa conference, dealing with Amazon's Alexa audio technology. 

Edited September 27, 2017 by xtianpoop
grammar, adding link

[Binbin98]

On 27/09/2017 at 6:54 AM, Hey_Hey said:

While I admit Nashville is unlikely to be picked for the Amazon HQ2, but I do think the pitch that Nashville can make will be a good exercise into how to draw a very large company into the city. I would love to see our city leaders think outside the box and dream big for the pitch. This is a time that the state will pitch in considerable funds toward the effort.  It is very unlikely that the winning package will simply provide $5 billion to Amazon. Instead I see a combination of traditional incentive packages (real estate tax abatement, tax credits per job created, etc) plus educational partnerships and large scale public projects.  

This is the time that the city could dream big and get the state to pledge funds toward upgrading the Music City Star to function as true commuter transit.  They could also pledge funds for LRT to the airport and a north-south LRT line that would abut the River North property.  Put Amazon's HQ2 at the center of the upgraded transit offerings but also understand that the proposed lines would provide ideal service to a large chunk of the businesses and residents in Nashville. 

The very fact that Amazon is seeking a place with mass transit gives me hope that our state leaders see that private businesses are looking for places that are willing to invest pubic funds into infrastructure improvements that support mobility, productivity, and business. 

I agree with this 100%. I've been a little pessimistic about nashville's chances, but the fact that nashville is very popular amongst millennials, as well as having a strong housing market, is a strong plus. Another thing that shouldn't be overlooked is the fact that river north is a proposal that fits very well with amazon's needs, and is already available and public. That is a very big plus for nashville over other cities, because it will be more convenient for amazon to pick that spot to relocate to (if they indeed pick nashville that is). Even nashville's transportation issue isn't that bad if you look towards the future (with the mayor's light rail proposals and now the huge BNA vision proposal). What worries me the most would be nashville's lack of tech talent and a tech scene, we don't even have a google office (though I wouldn't be surprised if they came here sooner than later). That is my full take on Nashville and amazon, hopefully I sound more optimistic now haha