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Possibility of Nashville becoming Amazon's new second HQ city; 50,000 jobs; $5 billion investment by company

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3 hours ago, urbanplanet17 said:

To my point about cities who are safe from natural disasters, below suggests the main reason they're looking for a new HQ is because Seattle's risk of experiencing an earthquake...

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

I can actually see Detroit being the choice as you outlined.  People shouldn't underestimate D-Town.  It has been home to monumental, mammoth industry before, and it can do it again.  Plus, as you said, it's well connected nationally AND internationally, with it's excellent airport, it's right on a border, safe from natural disaster, building an extensive light rail system, has a definite hip factor to it now, has close proximity to large universities and the minds that come with it, and I could definitely see Bezos wanting to be not only go for that shock factor but also be a MAJOR part of the turn around of a great American city.

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With respect to Atlanta, below has some interesting information. Apparently, there's a "mystery company" that will bring "thousands of high-paying jobs" whose working with a developer to build 500K sq. ft. of office space.

http://news.wabe.org/post/atlanta-s-real-estate-sector-abuzz-over-office-prospect

Edited by urbanplanet17
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Mexico City will not happen as the country is more and more unstable becuase of the expanding drug war. If they are taking into account earthquake zones and such, that location would not make the cut as it is in a major fault zone not mention, a volcanic zone and hurricane zone.

Orlando may not make the cut because of hurricane interuption and evacuation.

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As much as I want it to happen in Nashville, I just don't see it happening. Atlanta probably has the best chance at this in my opinion. They have the workforce, they have a transit system (albeit not the greatest), they definitely have the airport, and they are centrally located. I just don't see Nashville being able to fill the 50k new jobs. I mean I'm sure that there will be plenty of people willing to move here for those jobs, but where would they live? The housing market is already straining to keep up with demand. Not to mention that our mass transit is....well, where is it? Sure we have the $6 billion plan, which I hope comes to fruition, but will it help with this additional strain? I'd love for Amazon and Nashville to prove me wrong, but I just don't have a good feeling about Nashville landing this. 

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It probably also depends on how quickly they plan on expanding to the full 50,000. If it's a 10 year plan it's doable, if it's a 6 month plan it's not. 

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I strongly believe the best locations will be in the sunbelt with moderate weather ...the lower Midwest should also be ok. That would exclude colder climes like Minneapolis,  Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland,  etc..  I think Florida, which may have had Jacksonville,  Orlando and Tampa as potential candidates will now be out due to recent events. I would've given Houston a viable play, but now...no. NOLA has no chance. I think most prime contenders will be east of the Mississippi (except Austin and Dallas). In my (no doubt,  deeply flawed) logic; Nashville,  Charlotte,  Raleigh - Durham, Atlanta, Austin, Dallas, Indy, Columbus, Cincinnati,  DC and Philly are the main competitors. Atlanta seems to be in the catbird seat now for myriad reasons. Their sprawl and associated traffic woes will be a big downer, but not enough to counter their other merits. I think we (Nashville) have a chance, but I'd give it only about 10%. Top 5 in order of possibility :

Atlanta  

Philly

Austin

Dallas

Charlotte 

Edited by Flatrock
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In terms of Seattle dangers not only are there earthquakes and tsunami threats but Mt Rainer which is a volcano could blow   I firmly believe this will be on east coast and probably in the EST time zone to better communicate with Europe. 

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As a loyal homer, I'm going to give Nashville big points for intangibles such as lifestyle, the arrow, and cool factor!

  • In the lifestyle category ,  Nashville is a 'cosmopolitan  metropolis on a smaller scale' according to the NYTimes. We have a first class symphony in a first class facility, the number one concert hall in the Ryman Auditorium, and one  of the top entertainment venues in the world in Bridgestone arena. We have top rate restaurants, and are one of the major fashion cities outside of NY and LA. We need to improve the quality and scale of museums, but we're getting there. And the outdoors activities are limited as we do not have mountains, but they are only a morning's drive away.
  • In the arrow category, Nashville's arrow is definitely up! It is growing in population, urban density almost as impressively as any American city. And the services required by America's 'It' city will follow. The airport will continue to grow and make necessary infrastructure improvements and add international flights.
  • And in the coolness category, Nashville ranks in the same tier as LA, NYC, New Orleans, etc. It has vitality and excitement downtown that most cities do not have. It is a 'Magical' city in every way. It has new neighborhoods such as the Gulch and old new neighborhoods with definite buzz and character.

There definitely is an attraction that this city has that will lure any number of professionals as needed in a ten year build out.

 

 

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5 hours ago, urbanplanet17 said:

The Washington Post conducted an analysis of the potential contenders and Nashville made the Top 12 (Chicago did not)...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/09/08/this-map-shows-the-39-cities-likeliest-to-win-amazons-new-headquarters-contest/?utm_term=.6ecd31fe9d9f

You mean the same Washington Post that is owned by the guy who runs Amazon?  Interesting...

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1 hour ago, Pdt2f said:

It probably also depends on how quickly they plan on expanding to the full 50,000. If it's a 10 year plan it's doable, if it's a 6 month plan it's not. 

And besides, I would look at it as recession-proof investment.

Even if the overall economy slows down or recedes, the demand for additional housing, hotels, restaurants, etc. will probably remain high as Amazon (and let's not forget the businesses that will come along to support it) ramps up their operations.

2 minutes ago, jmtunafish said:

You mean the same Washington Post that is owned by the guy who runs Amazon?  Interesting...

Yes, I realized that after I posted the article.

I guess in a not-so-subtle way, it's possible Amazon just told us which cities they're considering.

1 hour ago, Flatrock said:

I strongly believe the best locations will be in the sunbelt with moderate weather ...the lower Midwest should also be ok. That would exclude colder climes like Minneapolis,  Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland,  etc..  I think Florida, which may have had Jacksonville,  Orlando and Tampa as potential candidates will now be out due to recent events. I would've given Houston a viable play, but now...no. NOLA has no chance. I think most prime contenders will be east of the Mississippi (except Austin and Dallas). In my (no doubt,  deeply flawed) logic; Nashville,  Charlotte,  Raleigh - Durham, Atlanta, Austin, Dallas, Indy, Columbus, Cincinnati,  DC and Philly are the main competitors. Atlanta seems to be in the catbird seat now for myriad reasons. Their sprawl and associated traffic woes will be a big downer, but not enough to counter their other merits. I think we (Nashville) have a chance, but I'd give it only about 10%. Top 5 in order of possibility :

Atlanta  

Philly

Austin

Dallas

Charlotte 

To be completely fair, I'm sure anyone with SAD would have slit their wrist by now having to deal with rainy / chilly / cloudy Seattle  for 9 months of the year. ;)

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My money is on DC ( NOVA specifically) with Dallas and Austin being close considerations.  I wonder if the Vegas odds makers will get in on this? :lol:

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moving the transit discussion for this from the bits and pieces section.  

Part of the overall plan is to include a full BRT line on Dickerson pike.

the lower portion could be re-routed into River north via either a short tunnel or bridge over/under I-24.

then connect to the Gallatin Pike light rail line. 

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10 hours ago, urbanplanet17 said:

To be completely fair, I'm sure anyone with SAD would have slit their wrist by now having to deal with rainy / chilly / cloudy Seattle  for 9 months of the year. 

True dat. But I'm not referring to cloudy/rainy. I'm referring to places with cold, long-azz winters with serious potential for major winter storms, extremely high energy/heating costs, etc....and an inherent disadvantage to recruit.  There is continued migration to the sunbelt for good reasons....particularly for greenfield sites and corporate relo's. :)

I don't think DC proper will make the cut due to congestion and the VERY HIGH cost of living/doing business. 

Edited by Flatrock
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21 hours ago, urbanplanet17 said:

With respect to Atlanta, below has some interesting information. Apparently, there's a "mystery company" that will bring "thousands of high-paying jobs" whose working with a developer to build 500K sq. ft. of office space.

http://news.wabe.org/post/atlanta-s-real-estate-sector-abuzz-over-office-prospect

In addition what's going on above, this was just announced...

Amazon picks Atlanta for new logistics hub, locates it in Midtown's Atlantic Station

https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2017/09/11/amazon-picks-atlanta-for-new-logistics-hub-locates.html

Edited by urbanplanet17
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Moving into potential effects of a long-shot Amazon-to-Nashville announcement, I think that a lot of residential projects that are currently on hold because of non-ideal market conditions (Buckingham Gulch) or financing issues would get the green light pretty soon after. The thought of so many highly paid millennial tech workers coming to Nashville could fuel a new residential building frenzy. 

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My top 10 list, in no particular order, is this: Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago, Austin, Denver, Orlando, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, New York, & Washington. I see lower cost cities potentially getting a boost due to the taxation in Seattle only getting higher, which would then lend a hand to smaller metros, such as Austin, Nashville, and Raleigh, along with bigger players like Dallas and Atlanta.

My money is on Dallas putting forth massive incentives and that it is a city that is really getting itself together and proving a formidable titan. It's already an economic powerhouse metro that has hefty global importance.

My dark horse candidate: Saint Louis.

Edited by NashRugger
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3 hours ago, Pdt2f said:

Moving into potential effects of a long-shot Amazon-to-Nashville announcement, I think that a lot of residential projects that are currently on hold because of non-ideal market conditions (Buckingham Gulch) or financing issues would get the green light pretty soon after. The thought of so many highly paid millennial tech workers coming to Nashville could fuel a new residential building frenzy. 

Things have slowed just about everywhere outside of Chicago, NYC and maybe Seattle in terms of projects, given there's so much uncertainty as far as economic policy and the fact that the current post-recession period has gotten extremely long in the tooth (I.E. history suggests we're well past due for another recession).  So Amazon would be a boon for most cities in the way you described (as I also mentioned earlier).

 

Edited by urbanplanet17

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I found out great news today

One of my classmates is planning an internship over winter break (in december, january and February) at the Amazon UK office here in holborn, London. He will be interning in the marketing field since that is his major and told me he will keep me updated if anything surfaces about the second headquarter location. However he also says since he will only be an intern, he also might not hear anything as well. So fingers crossed.

Just an update from across the pond :)

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