Amazon HQ2

[Popsickle]

Thread for all info and speculation regarding Amazon HQ2.  

RFP_3._V516043504_ (2).pdf

Edited September 12, 2017 by Popsickle

[KJHburg]

Here is an article about these Buffalo Hunting the economic developer term for huge mega projects. I wish NC and SC would do a deal like Kansas City metro did about firms jumping state lines but unlikely.  https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/09/tax-break-auctions-for-foxconn-apple-and-now-amazons-hq2-why-states-and-cities-keep-granting-outrageous-megadeals/539427/   And this article does not mention Toyota Mazda plant which is another buffalo out there now.

I wish states would stop this but that is unlikely as well. Amazon's public announcement instead of quiet plans is an indication they want cities and states to offer up big to snag them. If it came down to Atlanta Charlotte or a Boston it will be whoever get pony up the most money.  However sometimes in the long run that is a bad way to business decisions. 

[archiham04]

I wonder if there is any chance that this bid could include Camp North End and nearby land up North Tryon?

[CLT2014]

Incentive wise, the manufacturing plant for Toyota / Mazda is a wildcard. Is the state willing to post big incentive numbers for both? Toyota/ Mazda would benefit the manufacturing industry and give a win to the state GOP / Trump about bringing advanced manufacturing back to the country. Amazon would bring a company with a CEO who owns the Washington Post and is an outspoken critic of Trump. I have a hard time picturing our state assembly wanting to give Amazon money for jobs in the big city over Toyota / Mazda bringing jobs to more rural counties.  

I honestly don't know if we could get the votes in the state assembly for Amazon incentives and the city / county would have to find a way to fund themselves. 

Edited September 12, 2017 by CLT2014

[SouthEndCLT811]

26 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Here is an article about these Buffalo Hunting the economic developer term for huge mega projects. I wish NC and SC would do a deal like Kansas City metro did about firms jumping state lines but unlikely.  https://www.citylab.com/life/2017/09/tax-break-auctions-for-foxconn-apple-and-now-amazons-hq2-why-states-and-cities-keep-granting-outrageous-megadeals/539427/   And this article does not mention Toyota Mazda plant which is another buffalo out there now.

I wish states would stop this but that is unlikely as well. Amazon's public announcement instead of quiet plans is an indication they want cities and states to offer up big to snag them. If it came down to Atlanta Charlotte or a Boston it will be whoever get pony up the most money.  However sometimes in the long run that is a bad way to business decisions. 

Figure an average of $100K per job is about $5,300 in annual income tax per person (quick math done by our tax rate).  Multiplied by 50,000 that's $265M of additional income tax collected in NC once HQ2 is fully operational.  

For context: Chiquita was given $20M for 375 at average pay of $107K which is $2.1M per year to income tax.  Sealed Air received $43M for 1,262 jobs at $120K each or $8.2M per year to the income tax collected.   Tried to get Met Life but that was a little harder to decipher as average salary was varying between Cary and Charlotte but they brought 2,600 jobs and receive at least $87.5M up to $125M if they meet certain requirements.

Using straight-line math I wouldn't be surprised to see incentives to Amazon be in the $2.5-3B range paid over 10-15 years.  All hyperbole but till they make an announcement that's pretty much all it is

[Popsickle]

50 minutes ago, archiham04 said:

I wonder if there is any chance that this bid could include Camp North End and nearby land up North Tryon?

I was wondering that too, but I think it's going to be a bit too far from the light rail as I believe Amazon will want to be directly located on a mass transit line. 

[kermit]

3 hours ago, CLT2014 said:

Incentive wise, the manufacturing plant for Toyota / Mazda is a wildcard. Is the state willing to post big incentive numbers for both?

I honestly don't know if we could get the votes in the state assembly for Amazon incentives and the city / county would have to find a way to fund themselves. 

 

2 hours ago, SouthEndCLT811 said:

Using straight-line math I wouldn't be surprised to see incentives to Amazon be in the $2.5-3B range paid over 10-15 years.  All hyperbole but till they make an announcement that's pretty much all it is

Yea, Toyota/Mazda will always be a higher political priority at the state level and the state may not make more than a token effort for a Charlotte (or Raleigh) project like Amazon.

From my perspective, Charlotte's long-shot status (combined with almost-certain right-wing intransigence towards massive incentives for an urban project) should encourage the partnership to assemble a non-traditional incentives package. The package could include things like 1) land for current and future office space, 1.1) Some other TODable and walkable land for Amazon to design/build an Amazon workers community (the proverbial mill village) 1.5) Gifting Amazon a hanger at CLT (I believe the city still owns one) 2) increased funding for comp sci at CPCC with programs tailored to Amazon's needs, 3) a substantial endowment (in Amazon's name) for a ramped up CS and logistics programs at UNCC and 4) a very robust package of urban amenities geared to Amazon's needs (this would include the full 'new and improved' transit plan build out on an accelerated schedule, the most robust bike infrastructure on the east coast (this would be quite cheap and a powerful marketing tool) and some provision for Amazon to operate brick and mortar 'lab stores'   in different portions of the city, perhaps even allowing Amazon to tinker with zoning and development policies in these special 'amazon districts').

While this may not be exactly what Amazon has in mind, I think Charlotte could sell the lack of massive direct incentives as "we want Amazon to help us build a strong and modern community" and it would show decision-makers that we are willing to take risks, willing to accommodate Amazon's long-term (as well as immediate) needs and that Charlotte's future is not constrained by the RWNJs in Raleigh. If Amazon bit, it could then present itself as the least succubus-like Fortune 500 (an important thing for future PR) and Bezos could flatter himself as helping to turn a purple state blue by bringing in 50,000 highly-educated folks from elsewhere.

As a bonus, if / when Amazon decides to depart Charlotte (no company lasts forever), the city will continue to benefit from the incentives that were used to lure the company.

In short, this strategy would take one of Charlotte's weaknesses (we are small and dull) and turn it into a strength (Amazon can shape the city in its image). We also already have a model for this process, it was exactly what the banks did to redevelop uptown and get the transit plan started.

Edit: if Charlotte could manage to avoid tax abatements for Amazon then we could use TIFs to finance a large portion of the transit build out.

Edited September 12, 2017 by kermit

[RiverwoodCLT]

Charlotte Douglas International Airport is our Ace in the hand.

[CM2424]

What about throwing in the long-discussed 277 cap as part of the deal and letting them build a city within a city right within Uptown and South End?  Amazon will want to be right uptown in my opinion so it's either there or Levine-land.  Here is a good discussion of our merits which I largely agree with: https://twitter.com/AdieTomer/status/906184409950420992

 

[kermit]

^ Yup, completely great idea. I do strongly believe that since this effort is such a longshot that our proposal should prominently feature the business case for some big urban amenity projects. If we present the proposal well then it will be much easier to gather the funding for a 277 cap, or the transit build out later (even if Amazon goes elsewhere) since we can then legitimately say "this is what companies like Amazon are looking for now." 

Hell, we could do a build to suit for Amazon on all of the Gateway Station land and sell the three hour, no traffic, train ride to all the Triangle area universities.

 

Edited September 12, 2017 by kermit

[KJHburg]

I know a lot of you like the 277 cap but I don't. I like seeing the skyline from 277 around the loop. We will need more park space in the uptown area for sure but the cost of this is so high.  I think lets build out uptown and we are a LONG way from that with acres of under used land in 1st and 2nd wards and some in 3rd ward first  then revisit this idea in about 30-40 years.  Just my opinion.  Cost for one in Buckhead in ATL over GA 400 is around $200 Million! http://www.myajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/buckhead-deck-park-over-400-gets-big-debut/wGjaZeFUNp8tdjuePOjvoN/ and it is not sure thing in Buckhead either. 

For Amazon I think 1st Ward is the best choice plenty of vacant land and plenty of room for expansion.  2nd Ward in Brooklyn redevelopment.  While I think we as a city need to pitch suburban and intown sites, I think we actually have something most other urban areas don't have. A lot of vacant land in the center city next to transit. 

[KJHburg]

GeekWire puts Charlotte in the top 6 for Amazon HQ2 of the American cities since they include 4 Canadian cities. There is NO chance of them going to Vancouver BC which is beautiful but makes Seattle look cheap.   I would have thrown out Ottawa and Montreal too but Toronto is a competitor for sure.  https://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazon-build-hq2-let-data-decide/   Charlotte gets ZERO for transit says who? 

Edited September 12, 2017 by KJHburg

[queensguy06]

37 minutes ago, cmwilson24 said:

What about throwing in the long-discussed 277 cap as part of the deal and letting them build a city within a city right within Uptown and South End?  Amazon will want to be right uptown in my opinion so it's either there or Levine-land.  Here is a good discussion of our merits which I largely agree with: https://twitter.com/AdieTomer/status/906184409950420992

 

I second this.  Additionally, I'd like the city to commit to a dedicated rail line to the airport should Charlotte win the bid to be built in tandem with phase 1 of HQ2.  One glaring mismatch with other potential cities is a rail link with their major airport, which I don't think can be understated.

As kermit touched on, along with great tax incentives it's going to take some creative proposal ideas to have charlotte (or any candidate city) separate themselves from the competition. 

[KJHburg]

From the Wall St Journal today "New Amazon HQ Should Alarm"   http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/12/new-amazon-headquarters-should-alarm-wsj.html

[Dale]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

GeekWire puts Charlotte in the top 6 for Amazon HQ2 of the American cities since they include 4 Canadian cities. There is NO chance of them going to Vancouver BC which is beautiful but makes Seattle look cheap.   I would have thrown out Ottawa and Montreal too but Toronto is a competitor for sure.  https://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazon-build-hq2-let-data-decide/   Charlotte gets ZERO for transit says who? 

I think you have to have like 19 light rail lines to score well.

[RiverwoodCLT]

Why Amazon is looking at the east coast for Hq2.

A full rip of the Cascadia subduction zone would be a devastating event up and down the West Coast. The subduction zone extends from Eureka, California, to mid-Vancouver Island. A Cascadia event could cause up to a 9.0 magnitude quake with intense shaking lasting up to five minutes. The shaking would level un-reinforced buildings and roadways, sever utility lines and rupture gas and oil pipelines. About 20 minutes later, a tsunami would hit the West Coast and cause destruction similar to the March 2011 megaquake in Japan. Up to 13,000 people could die.

https://patch.com/washington/seattle/risk-cascadia-quake-elevated-puget-sound-slow-slip-event-begins

 

I think any city on the coast will be out due rising seas.  That leaves a few cities that could meet their needs.

Amazon is looking for a stable place from earth quakes and floods.

Edited September 12, 2017 by RiverwoodCLT

[Popsickle]

13 minutes ago, RiverwoodCLT said:

Why Amazon is looking at the east coast for Hq2.

A full rip of the Cascadia subduction zone would be a devastating event up and down the West Coast. The subduction zone extends from Eureka, California, to mid-Vancouver Island. A Cascadia event could cause up to a 9.0 magnitude quake with intense shaking lasting up to five minutes. The shaking would level un-reinforced buildings and roadways, sever utility lines and rupture gas and oil pipelines. About 20 minutes later, a tsunami would hit the West Coast and cause destruction similar to the March 2011 megaquake in Japan. Up to 13,000 people could die.

https://patch.com/washington/seattle/risk-cascadia-quake-elevated-puget-sound-slow-slip-event-begins

If they are truly worried about a natural disaster, they would have to worry about an act of terrorism. So, it would follow that NY, DC area, and possibly Boston are out of the picture for east coast locations.  

Get rid of many of the Texas locations due to natural disasters also, leaves what? Charlotte and Atlanta as viable locations. Charlotte > Atlanta, HQ2 goes to Charlotte.  Problem solved.  Everybody rejoice. 

[QCxpat]

According to The NY Times Upshot column on 09/11/2017 regarding Amazon's HQ2, "Amazon is also clear that it needs a lot of skilled tech labor.  Remember, it could ultimately hire 50,000 employees.  And we're not primarily talking about warehouse workers, but executives, software engineers, and legal and accounting experts.  In the metro areas that survive this round (Charlotte was one of 14 metros that survived this round), more than one in eight workers is in an industry related to tech, science or professional services, according to the census."    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/09/upshot/where-should-amazon-new-headquarters-be.html?mcubz=0

In this connection, one recent survey showed Charlotte to be the third most attractive metro in the country for professionals to relocate to.   http://www.newgeography.com/content/005725-how-professionals-choose-where-to-live

Edited September 12, 2017 by QCxpat
Change "live in" to "relocate to."

[KJHburg]

In all my years following economic development I have never seen a company so public with their search for a major new office.  Check out Amazon's own webpage for it: https://www.amazon.com/gp/browse.html/?node=17044620011   This whole process is completely unlike anything seen in the economic development world more likely for a sports team thinking of relocating. 

Good summary here

http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Amazon-Outgrows-Seattle-Opens-Search-for-Second-HQ-City-in-North-America/193970

 

 

Edited September 13, 2017 by KJHburg

[rancenc]

Who cares if we get Amazon or not, I predict within 10 years they will be a thing of past once these "babies" start popping up in the house!!

 

 

 

 

[kermit]

2 hours ago, RiverwoodCLT said:

Amazon is looking for a stable place from earth quakes and floods.

Hurricanes and tornadoes don't count?

[RiverwoodCLT]

Tornadoes can happen in many places, even here in Charlotte.     Hurricanes can flood.

Edited September 13, 2017 by RiverwoodCLT

[ah59396]

17 hours ago, RiverwoodCLT said:

Why Amazon is looking at the east coast for Hq2.

A full rip of the Cascadia subduction zone would be a devastating event up and down the West Coast. The subduction zone extends from Eureka, California, to mid-Vancouver Island. A Cascadia event could cause up to a 9.0 magnitude quake with intense shaking lasting up to five minutes. The shaking would level un-reinforced buildings and roadways, sever utility lines and rupture gas and oil pipelines. About 20 minutes later, a tsunami would hit the West Coast and cause destruction similar to the March 2011 megaquake in Japan. Up to 13,000 people could die.

https://patch.com/washington/seattle/risk-cascadia-quake-elevated-puget-sound-slow-slip-event-begins

 

I think any city on the coast will be out due rising seas.  That leaves a few cities that could meet their needs.

Amazon is looking for a stable place from earth quakes and floods.

While the earthquake is a serious concern, the city is making strides to address it  (bridge retro-fitting, tearing down the viaduct).  Also, I have a hard time believing that Amazon is concerned about the earthquake as a driving factor in the move, given it has been known about since the 80's and Amazon has been building here non-stop.  Pioneer Square will certainly be flattened to rubble, but all of Amazon's buildings in Seattle are brand new and built to strict code.

 

Of course, I still own an earthquake prepper kit.  Hopefully it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

[Old Carolinian]

"The Really Big One"   The New Yorker   July 20, 2015

If, on that occasion, only the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone gives way—your first two fingers, say—the magnitude of the resulting quake will be somewhere between 8.0 and 8.6. That’s the big one. If the entire zone gives way at once, an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture, the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2. That’s the very big one.

When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west—losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater.  The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America.   FEMA  projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Another twenty-seven thousand will be injured, and the agency expects that it will need to provide shelter for a million displaced people, and food and water for another two and a half million.

[tozmervo]

1 hour ago, Old Carolinian said:

"The Really Big One"   The New Yorker   July 20, 2015

If, on that occasion, only the southern part of the Cascadia subduction zone gives way—your first two fingers, say—the magnitude of the resulting quake will be somewhere between 8.0 and 8.6. That’s the big one. If the entire zone gives way at once, an event that seismologists call a full-margin rupture, the magnitude will be somewhere between 8.7 and 9.2. That’s the very big one.

When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west—losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater.  The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America.   FEMA  projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Another twenty-seven thousand will be injured, and the agency expects that it will need to provide shelter for a million displaced people, and food and water for another two and a half million.

RIP @ah59396. Not even Dwayne Johnson can save you.