Amazon HQ2

[CLT2014]

I think Amazon is going to look for a city with a reasonable cost of living so they can slow wage inflation at HQ2, but also a more populous city than Seattle. The Seattle metro area at 3.7 million people is simply too small for Amazon to continue to expand past 50,000 jobs. They have 4,607 job openings in Seattle right now that they are trying to fill. That would be nearly 25% of all job openings in the Charlotte area today, let alone job openings requiring a college degree. 

With Amazon having an average tenure of 1 year before employees burn out and quit, at this point much of the tech workforce in Seattle is an "Amazon alumni." People are not necessarily staying at Amazon and building their career there - they are working for a while and then quitting after getting experience. This means they need a massive recruiting pipeline to fill the 4,000 - 6,000 job openings they will have at their HQ at any one time with new young people who work there a while and then quit.

As the millennial workforce ages into their 30's and accelerate having children, they will have even more job openings to fill, with a smaller co-hort of people behind them. In 10 years, for every millennial that quits, there will only be .92 Gen Z to replace them. There were 79.4 million people born between 1981 - 1998 (Millennials). There are only 73.6 million people born between 1999 - 2015 (Gen Z), a 7% decline.

Even in a decade Charlotte will still be a smaller metro area than Seattle and the issues they are having in Seattle with finding qualified talent will be even more aggravated. 

I would throw Canada out there as a wildcard due to being more open to immigration and getting qualified Visa coding talent, versus the USA which has slowed the immigration funnel and will be entering a co-hort of 20 somethings's that is 7% smaller than the millennials. 

 

Edited October 24, 2017 by CLT2014

[RALNATIVE]

21 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

Who are you agreeing with?  Columbia, SC????   Are you playing SimCity?  Amazon is a company.   Are they going to look at the lifestyle for their employees?  Yes.  But it will be down the list compared to things that impact the bottom line.  

 

 

Lifestyle for employees DOES impact the bottomline...more than you think. Large companies are well aware that selecting the right location is vital to being able to ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent. This is super critical in industries like technology, where competition for the best talent is fierce.

Since HQ2 will mostly consist of white collar jobs, if Amazon were to choose a location where their types of employees (in mass numbers) reject moving to, they could loose much of their talent, as well as potential employees, to their competitors.  I'm sorry, but most top level execs and hip geeks are not going to want to give up their posh lifestyles to move to a city where they cannot find the amenities that they are accustomed to. It ain't gonna happen! These people know that they are in high demand (after working for one of the world's largest and most profitable companies) and can command high salaries with just about any high tech company anywhere, and will jump ship and go work for Amazon's competition just to be able to remain in Seattle, Silicon Valley, etc. 

If you don't think this would have an impact on the bottom line...

Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent...period! This will probably be their #1 requirement. That is why cities like NYC, Boston, and DC appear to be ahead of the pack.

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

2 minutes ago, RALNATIVE said:

Lifestyle for employees DOES impact the bottomline...more than you think. Large companies are well aware that selecting the right location is vital to being able to ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent. This is super critical in industries like technology, where competition for the best talent is fierce.

Since HQ2 will mostly consist of white collar jobs, if Amazon were to choose a location where their types of employees (in mass numbers) reject moving to, they could loose much of their talent, as well as potential employees, to their competitors.  I'm sorry, but most top level execs and hip geeks are not going to want to give up their posh lifestyles to move to a city where they cannot find the amenities that they are accustomed to. It ain't gonna happen! These people know that they are in high demand (after working for one of the world's largest and most profitable companies) and can command high salaries with just about any high tech company anywhere, and will jump ship and go work for Amazon's competition just to be able to remain in Seattle, Silicon Valley, etc. 

If you don't think this would have an impact on the bottom line...

Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent...period! This will probably be their #1 requirement. That is why cities like NYC, Boston, and DC appear to be ahead of the pack.

NYC, Boston and DC probably would be among the most difficult cities to retain talent, with such a competitive job and wage market. Dallas and Atlanta are both much cheaper cities that can attract employees from anywhere, but also would be able to retain employees easier, with less competition in the workforce. Plus Texas and GA provide much more business friendly environments as right to work states. 

[RALNATIVE]

21 minutes ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

NYC, Boston and DC probably would be among the most difficult cities to retain talent, with such a competitive job and wage market. Dallas and Atlanta are both much cheaper cities that can attract employees from anywhere, but also would be able to retain employees easier, with less competition in the workforce. Plus Texas and GA provide much more business friendly environments as right to work states. 

I can see Denver, Dallas, Atlanta and a few others that fit the bill. Pittsburgh is also another interesting option.

[kermit]

Unions don't tend to be a big thing for most professional workers, particularly in tech industries. The workers are so mobile that they don't typically see a need or benefit to organizing. I think right to work laws are a bit of a red herring for HQ2.

[cjd5050]

2 hours ago, RALNATIVE said:

Lifestyle for employees DOES impact the bottomline...more than you think. Large companies are well aware that selecting the right location is vital to being able to ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent. This is super critical in industries like technology, where competition for the best talent is fierce.

1

Really?  Supercritical for industries like technology?  I know people who work in the Valley.  They are WORKED.  They are not going to art gala openings or the symphony to the level you appear to suggest.  They are grinding.  Long hours on the campus.   Why do you think Amazon built the campus in Seattle like they did?  Was it to encourage people to spend time at the Warf?  No.  It was to create a space where they would gravitate to and remain to extract the most productivity.    These folks are not working banker hours....

Does Culture matter?  Yes.  But, again, it's down the list.    

You know what is one of the biggest challenges to the tech culture?   The high cost of living.  It's consistently a top 3 issue that tech workers face.  It's one thing to be worked for long hours at the campus to stack your resume but to have the housing market out of reach, even with your $100k salary, is another story.   Sure it's sexy to work at Salesforce in the new tower but that's tempered a bit each morning on your hour commute from a crappy rental in Belmont.  

2 hours ago, RALNATIVE said:

Since HQ2 will mostly consist of white collar jobs, if Amazon were to choose a location where their types of employees (in mass numbers) reject moving to, they could loose much of their talent, as well as potential employees, to their competitors.  I'm sorry, but most top level execs and hip geeks are not going to want to give up their posh lifestyles to move to a city where they cannot find the amenities that they are accustomed to. It ain't gonna happen! These people know that they are in high demand (after working for one of the world's largest and most profitable companies) and can command high salaries with just about any high tech company anywhere, and will jump ship and go work for Amazon's competition just to be able to remain in Seattle, Silicon Valley, etc. 

2

Not sure where you are going with this as it relates to what I have said.    I agree with you that Amazon can't move to Columbia, SC or Athens, GA.  But there are a whole lot of cities between Columbia, SC <> NY, NY.   

Also, Amazon is a technology company, which has different rules to play by then typical 'white collar executives'  

2 hours ago, RALNATIVE said:

Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent...period! This will probably be their #1 requirement. That is why cities like NYC, Boston, and DC appear to be ahead of the pack.

 

LOL.  Sure.  This would be right if it were not wrong.   

The game is not about retention or tenurere in tech.  That's not how it works.  How it works is sourcing raw talent and extracting as much as you can from it before it departs.   The reason why this works is that there is an endless supply of talent willing to be processed by the machine.  Why you ask?  Well, once a person does a stint at Google, Amazon or another large company...they carry that weight on their resume either for their own venture or to coast into the secondary job market.   It's why the median tenure at Amazon is 12 months. &nbsp;That's the same for google and half as long as Apple and Microsoft.

But hey, maybe we should just go back to presenting opinions as facts.....  

[cjd5050]

5 minutes ago, kermit said:

Unions don't tend to be a big thing for most professional workers, particularly in tech industries. The workers are so mobile that they don't typically see a need or benefit to organizing. I think right to work laws are a bit of a red herring for HQ2.

I agree it is unlikely that Amazon developers are going to join a union.  

That said, Amazon does have close to 350k employees and many of them do want to unionize.  The unions (Teamsters/ AFL-CIO) that want to organize them are in lockstep with politicians like Chuck Schumer...who is one of the 3 in the room in New York State.  To think that Teamsters or AFL-CIO would not try to leverage their influence with Schumer in NY to move forward their cause somewhere else is a bit naive I think.   It's all connected.  

[KJHburg]

Well if they are looking for a bigger city than Seattle and cheaper than it is Atlanta. I heard last summer a company was looking at 500K of office space in Atlanta and where they could go in their various submarkets.   Then 6-8 weeks later this nationwide search for HQ2 happened.  I think this whole charade is being done to get Georgia and Atlanta to pony up (and indeed they might).  Dallas is another option but not in the right time zone in my mind.  Charlotte and Raleigh Durham have many positives but if size of labor market is what they are looking for it than a bigger city like ATL would fit the bill.  As I have said many times Charlotte will survive and thrive with or without Amazon and in fact it this goes to a regional competitor like ATL it is even better for us.   I can hear the chamber now   Come to Charlotte many of the same attributes as Atlanta but you dont have to compete with Amazon labor etc    

Edited October 24, 2017 by KJHburg

[cjd5050]

42 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

Well if they are looking for a bigger city than Seattle and cheaper than it is Atlanta. I heard last summer a company was looking at 500K of office space in Atlanta and where they could go in their various submarkets.   Then 6-8 weeks later this nationwide search for HQ2 happened.  I think this whole charade is being done to get Georgia and Atlanta to pony up (and indeed they might).  Dallas is another option but not in the right time zone in my mind.  Charlotte and Raleigh Durham have many positives but if size of labor market is what they are looking for it than a bigger city like ATL would fit the bill.  As I have said many times Charlotte will survive and thrive with or without Amazon and in fact it this goes to a regional competitor like ATL it is even better for us.   I can hear the chamber now   Come to Charlotte many of the same attributes as Atlanta but you dont have to compete with Amazon labor etc    

Atlanta really does check all of the boxes.  

[RALNATIVE]

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

Really?  Supercritical for industries like technology?  I know people who work in the Valley.  They are WORKED.  They are not going to art gala openings or the symphony to the level you appear to suggest.  They are grinding.  Long hours on the campus.   Why do you think Amazon built the campus in Seattle like they did?  Was it to encourage people to spend time at the Warf?  No.  It was to create a space where they would gravitate to and remain to extract the most productivity.    These folks are not working banker hours....

Does Culture matter?  Yes.  But, again, it's down the list.    

You know what is one of the biggest challenges to the tech culture?   The high cost of living.  It's consistently a top 3 issue that tech workers face.  It's one thing to be worked for long hours at the campus to stack your resume but to have the housing market out of reach, even with your $100k salary, is another story.   Sure it's sexy to work at Salesforce in the new tower but that's tempered a bit each morning on your hour commute from a crappy rental in Belmont.  

Not sure where you are going with this as it relates to what I have said.    I agree with you that Amazon can't move to Columbia, SC or Athens, GA.  But there are a whole lot of cities between Columbia, SC <> NY, NY.   

Also, Amazon is a technology company, which has different rules to play by then typical 'white collar executives'  

LOL.  Sure.  This would be right if it were not wrong.   

The game is not about retention or tenurere in tech.  That's not how it works.  How it works is sourcing raw talent and extracting as much as you can from it before it departs.   The reason why this works is that there is an endless supply of talent willing to be processed by the machine.  Why you ask?  Well, once a person does a stint at Google, Amazon or another large company...they carry that weight on their resume either for their own venture or to coast into the secondary job market.   It's why the median tenure at Amazon is 12 months. &nbsp;That's the same for google and half as long as Apple and Microsoft.

But hey, maybe we should just go back to presenting opinions as facts.....  

I've lived and worked in Silicon Valley for a number of years so i'm very familiar with how things work in the tech industry. Yes, they want to extract as much knowledge from key employees before they jump ship, but they also need to do everything they can to prevent them from taking that knowledge to top competitors. In Amazon's case this is vital because they have such a highly successful, proprietary, and lucrative business model. Citrix in Raleigh is currently embroiled in a lawsuit with some of their former employees for non-compete issues.

There is a reason why the best talent remains for years and years with companies like Microsoft and even SAS in Cary, even though they get high offers from other companies. These companies bend over backwards to keep those employees. Just ask anyone who has ever worked for SAS.

[cjd5050]

28 minutes ago, RALNATIVE said:

I've lived and worked in Silicon Valley for a number of years so i'm very familiar with how things work in the tech industry. Yes, they want to extract as much knowledge from key employees before they jump ship, but they also need to do everything they can to prevent them from taking that knowledge to top competitors. In Amazon's case this is vital because they have such a highly successful, proprietary, and lucrative business model. Citrix in Raleigh is currently embroiled in a lawsuit with some of their former employees for non-compete issues.

There is a reason why the best talent remains for years and years with companies like Microsoft and even SAS in Cary, even though they get high offers from other companies. These companies bend over backwards to keep those employees. Just ask anyone who has ever worked for SAS.

What does this have to do with lifestyle?  You said [lifestyle] will probably be their #1 requirement.  How does culture keep someone from moving from one company to another?  

I don't see how proximity to Broadway or Nobu factors into the decision to stay or leave a company.  I also would not use the word 'posh' to describe the lifestyle the typical Valley employee lives but that's a different conversation.   

I think I read it here or maybe not...  But Amazon likes to A/B test everything.  It's part of what makes them so successful.  If true, could the 2nd HQ be a massive A/B test to the 1st?  If so, you would want to look for places that are different from Seattle...not similar.    This, of course, is just a question and not a statement.  

[Vitamin_N]

Wow, things are really heating up! 

Jeff Bezos Just Tossed A Nail-Studded Baseball Bat On The Floor Between The Mayors Of Pittsburgh And Kansas City And Asked Who Really Wants The Second Amazon HQ

[RALNATIVE]

43 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

What does this have to do with lifestyle?  You said [lifestyle] will probably be their #1 requirement.  How does culture keep someone from moving from one company to another?  

I don't see how proximity to Broadway or Nobu factors into the decision to stay or leave a company.  I also would not use the word 'posh' to describe the lifestyle the typical Valley employee lives but that's a different conversation.   

I think I read it here or maybe not...  But Amazon likes to A/B test everything.  It's part of what makes them so successful.  If true, could the 2nd HQ be a massive A/B test to the 1st?  If so, you would want to look for places that are different from Seattle...not similar.    This, of course, is just a question and not a statement.  

What I said was..."Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent" which is what I said will probably be their #1 requirement. If you're qoing to quote someone, make sure its accurate.

Edited October 24, 2017 by RALNATIVE

[KJHburg]

Well it sounds like NC is putting its best foot forward who knows if it will be enough for Amazon.  I am very hopeful on the Toyota plant though and believe our chances are very good. 

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2017/10/24/commerce-secretary-n-c-offered-monumental.html?ana=e_ae_set1&s=article_du&ed=2017-10-24&u=oAaDx%2B74FoP4qOJ%2By4AU6dhJPpc&t=1508875152&j=79049361

[cjd5050]

1 hour ago, RALNATIVE said:

What I said was..."Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent" which is what I said will probably be their #1 requirement. If you're qoing to quote someone, make sure its accurate.

No.  What you said was "Lifestyle for employees DOES impact the bottomline...more than you think. Large companies are well aware that selecting the right location is vital to being able to ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent. This is super critical in industries like technology, where competition for the best talent is fierce." and then concluded with "Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent...period! This will probably be their #1 requirement. That is why cities like NYC, Boston, and DC appear to be ahead of the pack."

I didn't misquote you.  You may need to do a better job of composing your thoughts....

[KJHburg]

Take a look at SAS's campus in Cary.  If the average Amazon HQ person only stays a few years I bet these SAS employees stay a lot longer.  NC can and will continue to be attractive to tech companies and best of all this is a homegrown one. This is probably the most amenity filled campus in the state.  http://www.businessinsider.com/sas-office-tour-2017-10/#sas-is-the-largest-employer-in-cary-north-carolina-there-its-headquarters-inhabits-a-sprawling-and-lush-900-acre-campus-the-space-tends-to-draw-on-the-companys-collegiate-roots-1  I heard it was nice but this fantastic. 

[elrodvt]

It is sweet but i know a couple people who went to SAS and like any company in IT left after a few years to take the next step up in salary.  Also, cost of living being low can  be a curse when you do decide to move. If you're happy making 100K in CLT but need 135 for Philly many companies will not give that big a jump. Basically you can get left behind. 

[RALNATIVE]

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

No.  What you said was "Lifestyle for employees DOES impact the bottomline...more than you think. Large companies are well aware that selecting the right location is vital to being able to ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent. This is super critical in industries like technology, where competition for the best talent is fierce." and then concluded with "Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent...period! This will probably be their #1 requirement. That is why cities like NYC, Boston, and DC appear to be ahead of the pack."

I didn't misquote you.  You may need to do a better job of composing your thoughts....

Dude you are confused and attempting to confuse others. Your statements are all over the place.

Edited October 24, 2017 by RALNATIVE

[elrodvt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dear-mr-bezos-have-i-got-a-deal-for-you/2017/10/24/78ad9736-b8f6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

[cjd5050]

1 hour ago, RALNATIVE said:

Dude you are confused and attempting to confuse others. Your statements are all over the place.

I have no intent other than to point out how silly it is to suggest a company is going to put delivering a posh lifestyle as the #1 consideration to where they locate a HQ.  

[Cadi40]

55 minutes ago, elrodvt said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dear-mr-bezos-have-i-got-a-deal-for-you/2017/10/24/78ad9736-b8f6-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html

Worst Idea in the world. Literally any where else would be better, I'm fine with Washington but 25% of Washington's History destroyed for Amazon? That's beyond desperate. 

[elrodvt]

^It was tongue in cheek.

[urbanlover568]

8 hours ago, cjd5050 said:

Atlanta really does check all of the boxes.  

I'm in the process of relocating to Atlanta and I can tell you first few experiences lead me to believe that Charlotte is by far the cleanest, safest, and friendliest out of RDU, CLT and ATL. 

13 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm not going to argue with you.  I agree that the top candidates are Charlotte, Salt Lake, or maybe even Columbia, SC, despite the fact that all lack great universities, great museums, great symphonies, great mass transit, and have de minimis tech scenes.

Columbia is full of crime, no rail transit, and unprecedented local corruption. No way that city gets it. 

[tozmervo]

 

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

http://fortune.com/2017/10/23/amazon-hq2-atlanta/

Atlanta has emerged as the post application deadline favorite. 

Charlotte isn't big enough to get Amazon, but is close enough it could benefit greatly. If Amazon is able to influence GA, which it would with HQ2 (I keep typing HB2), Charlotte can market itself as a regional contributor (much like Portland to Seattle, or Boston to NY), while being able to be a nearby option for any Amazon customer, supplier or competitor. Plus construction of a high speed rail from Atlanta would surely speed up. We may not think of the locational proximity now, but in comparison to much of the country the two cities are extremely close, and will benefit from each others growth in the future. Charlotte is truly blessed to be located between ATL and RDU. 

Edited October 25, 2017 by CarolinaDaydreamin