Amazon HQ2

[queensguy06]

Betting on HQ2 has officially begun.  Paddy Power Sports Bookhas Atlanta as the front runner at 2-1 odds.  Runner ups are Austin (11-4) and Philly (7-1).  

Other cities of note are Portland (14-1), Denver in the middle at 20-1, Dublin (50-1), and rounding out the list is Melbourne at 100-1.  Noticeably absent are Charlotte and Raleigh.  However this list and the odds are surely to change as more bets are placed.

[queensguy06]

57 minutes ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

Charlotte isn't big enough to get Amazon, but is close enough it could benefit greatly. If Amazon is able to influence GA, which it would with HQ2 (I keep typing HB2), Charlotte can market itself as a regional contributor (much like Portland to Seattle, or Boston to NY), while being able to be a nearby option for any Amazon customer, supplier or competitor. Plus construction of a high speed rail from Atlanta would surely speed up. 

Ha! Beat me to it, although my link has embedded up to date odds

I think you make a very valid point and agree.  The bleed to not only Charlotte but also potentially Nashville cannot be understated.  There are many supporting services and heavy clients that could benefit from being in a neighboring state, both logistically and geographically, but within distance of same day face-to-face transactions.

Another reason why Atlanta makes sense is from a talent standpoint.  Think about all of the major universities within a half day drive.  Here is a 300 mile radius:

 

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

Seattle is 800 miles to SF. 

 

Within 800 miles of Atlanta:

Chicago, Miami, Dallas, Houston, CLT, Nashville, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, Pitt, NYC, DC.  Same benefit locationally that CLT airport is benefitted from. AMZNing 

[BullDurhamer]

16 hours ago, RALNATIVE said:

Lifestyle for employees DOES impact the bottomline...more than you think. Large companies are well aware that selecting the right location is vital to being able to ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent. This is super critical in industries like technology, where competition for the best talent is fierce.

Since HQ2 will mostly consist of white collar jobs, if Amazon were to choose a location where their types of employees (in mass numbers) reject moving to, they could loose much of their talent, as well as potential employees, to their competitors.  I'm sorry, but most top level execs and hip geeks are not going to want to give up their posh lifestyles to move to a city where they cannot find the amenities that they are accustomed to. It ain't gonna happen! These people know that they are in high demand (after working for one of the world's largest and most profitable companies) and can command high salaries with just about any high tech company anywhere, and will jump ship and go work for Amazon's competition just to be able to remain in Seattle, Silicon Valley, etc. 

If you don't think this would have an impact on the bottom line...

Amazon knows this and will choose a city where they can ATTRACT and RETAIN the best talent...period! This will probably be their #1 requirement. That is why cities like NYC, Boston, and DC appear to be ahead of the pack.

This is a solid post, imo. 

 

I'm in the camp that believes the city with the most brew pubs will win or something along those lines.  

Amazon is competing for talent and has the opportunity to position themselves to be at the top of the list for where folks will look to go work.  What cities qualify as awesome for hip young people?  The awesome cities for young people that are big enough to handle Amazon are few and far between.     

 

Seattle fits that bill pretty well.   Does Newark?  Detroit?    I'd bet that googling a list of best cities for young professionals will probably get you as good of a list as any to work off.  

 

 

I'm also interested to see if Amazon will go all the way to an Atlanta.  That's 6 hours in the plane from Seattle. I'm not so sure...

On 10/23/2017 at 7:16 PM, Cadi40 said:

I understand NYC, But Charlotte is actually the Place where the most millennials are moving to. 

you keep saying that like it's true.

http://time.com/4797956/cities-millennials-moving/

charlotte isn't even ahead of raleigh...

[Higgs Boson]

^^ I prefer looking at the raw numbers over the percentages.   Percentages skew the results with the city size.  I mean, if you were just to look at where millennials were moving to then NYC had a net increase of 30,000, Boston 15k, and Philly 14k.  Drop down to Houston at 6k, Austin at 4.5k, San Antonio at 3.6k.  Drop even further down to Charlotte at 1,372 and Raleigh at 677.  They wouldn't even make the list.  

Anyway, if feels like Pittsburgh and Philly should have a case to be in Amazon's top-five.  Pittsburgh has a solid tech base + Carnegie Mellon.  Both are low cost, at least relative to the northeast and Philly feels likes it's been on fire the last several years.  Isn't that where most people from Brooklyn move to after they can no longer afford it?

[Cadi40]

https://smartasset.com/mortgage/where-millennials-are-moving

I am worried if Atlanta gets HQ2, Wouldn't it attract people in our area to move to Atlanta? One good part is it my attract companies who were looking at Atlanta for their headquarters or operations to move here since Atlanta housing HQ2 will spike taxes, housing, goods, etc. 

[cjd5050]

8 hours ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

http://fortune.com/2017/10/23/amazon-hq2-atlanta/

Atlanta has emerged as the post application deadline favorite. 

Plus construction of a high speed rail from Atlanta would surely speed up. We may not think of the locational proximity now, but in comparison to much of the country the two cities are extremely close, and will benefit from each others growth in the future. Charlotte is truly blessed to be located between ATL and RDU. 

3

This could be the perfect 'I drink your milkshake' opportunity actually. 

[kickazzz2000]

1 hour ago, cjd5050 said:

This could be the perfect 'I drink your milkshake' opportunity actually. 

Yayy we can be the Baltimore of the South!

[RiverwoodCLT]

6 hours ago, BullDurhamer said:

This is a solid post, imo. 

 

I'm in the camp that believes the city with the most brew pubs will win or something along those lines.  

Amazon is competing for talent and has the opportunity to position themselves to be at the top of the list for where folks will look to go work.  What cities qualify as awesome for hip young people?  The awesome cities for young people that are big enough to handle Amazon are few and far between.     

 

Seattle fits that bill pretty well.   Does Newark?  Detroit?    I'd bet that googling a list of best cities for young professionals will probably get you as good of a list as any to work off.  

 

 

I'm also interested to see if Amazon will go all the way to an Atlanta.  That's 6 hours in the plane from Seattle. I'm not so sure...

you keep saying that like it's true.

http://time.com/4797956/cities-millennials-moving/

charlotte isn't even ahead of Raleigh...

But Charlotte gain more that 2 times the number as Raleigh.

[BullDurhamer]

3 hours ago, Higgs Boson said:

^^ I prefer looking at the raw numbers over the percentages.   Percentages skew the results with the city size.  I mean, if you were just to look at where millennials were moving to then NYC had a net increase of 30,000, Boston 15k, and Philly 14k.  Drop down to Houston at 6k, Austin at 4.5k, San Antonio at 3.6k.  Drop even further down to Charlotte at 1,372 and Raleigh at 677.  They wouldn't even make the list.  

Anyway, if feels like Pittsburgh and Philly should have a case to be in Amazon's top-five.  Pittsburgh has a solid tech base + Carnegie Mellon.  Both are low cost, at least relative to the northeast and Philly feels likes it's been on fire the last several years.  Isn't that where most people from Brooklyn move to after they can no longer afford it?

and 30K moved to NY/NJ.  i was simply trying to understand if this chatter about Charlotte being a millennial center was true, and while of course it's a popular destination, it doesn't necessarily  stand out in this regard in any particular way.   

 

With that said, if Amazon gets in downtown Charlotte, throw all that out and yes, I do think it's a possibility.    Unfortunately the HB2 might get too confusing to have HQ2 but we'll see. 

[HopHead]

I'm probably in the minority here, but I think Amazon putting HQ2 here in Charlotte would be a bad thing. Just looking at that would do to housing prices, which have already gotten to be bad enough in neighborhoods right outside of center city. Just throw in the fact our infrastructure can't even handle how we are growing now as it is. It would just be a disaster. I'd rather see us grown more organically and with smaller but impactful job growth and relocations.  I think HQ2 would be better off in a larger city that can better absorb it like Boston, NYC or Atlanta. 

[KJHburg]

^^^ I have come to the same conclusion if we get it we will deal with it (but it won't be all roses) and if we don't get it we will continue to grow and prosper. We are one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country right now with lots of jobs creation and people moving here can you imagine it on steroids?  

[SydneyCarton]

7 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

^^^ I have come to the same conclusion if we get it we will deal with it (but it won't be all roses) and if we don't get it we will continue to grow and prosper. We are one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country right now with lots of jobs creation and people moving here can you imagine it on steroids?  

Well said.

[Cadi40]

I only fear that if Atlanta is chosen it is close enough where people would move there. Therefore, I am worried Atlanta is going to 'Steal' our growth and economic development as well as growth in the Tech sector. Or should I be excited for another city to be chosen because it will promote other companies to move here? I am undecided. 

[KJHburg]

What is drawing people and tech people to Charlotte will still happen. We are just more reasonable sized city and while some may move to Atlanta I have noticed many UGA graduates coming here of late.  Think of where we already attract tech people from:  our local Carolina universities and from the Northeast which will still come to a city like Charlotte with all the benefits like Atlanta but none of the problems (long commutes, congestion etc)  Actually I think we would attract MORE business here because they would consider a good alternative because our cities have many of the same attributes airport, cost of living, etc. 

Are their tech people here that will quit their jobs here and move to Atlanta if Amazon comes there???  I will ask some of my tech friends but they like the smaller companies a lot. 

[cltbwimob]

I am of the opinion that there is no way that we land HQ2 primarily because of our lack of major universities and our lack of tech culture, although that seems to be changing as of late.  

That said, I would love for Charlotte to get HQ2.  I think it would be the perfect jump start for the River District, and would probably accelerate the timeline to build an LRT line to the West that would connect Uptown, the airport, and River District.  If it came, I could also see it pushing UNC Charlotte to become more of a hotbed for tech programs such as Computer Science, Computer Engineering, and Software Engineering.  Additionally, I could see HQ2 resulting in a much more robust Prime Air Cargo operation at the airport, perhaps even a hub.

In fact, if I were an economic development professional, my proposal would be this:

If you come to Charlotte and build at the River District, we will reappropriate all future funding for the Gold Line streetcar into an LRT line from Uptown to the River District via the Airport, set aside a TBD amount of money to expand the Comp Sci and Comp Eng programs at UNCC as well as establish a  Software Engineering program, and we will build a warehouse and  sortation center on grounds at the airport to establish a Prime Air Hub.  In addition we will offer some TBD tax breaks if you meet stated job creation targets.

Edited October 27, 2017 by cltbwimob

[kermit]

^ True HSR between Atlanta and Charlotte would create 1:20 commute times between Gateway Station and the Gulch (it often takes longer to drive through Gwinnett County).  It would cost about $10 billion. Might be worth it. 

Edited October 27, 2017 by kermit

[Cadi40]

15 minutes ago, kermit said:

^ True HSR between Atlanta and Charlotte would create 1:20 commute times between Gateway Station and the Gulch.  It would cost about $10 billion. Might be worth it. 

In my opinion the whole East Coast Needs it, Starting in Miami all the way to Boston. All though we all know that it's not happening anytime soon. I would like to see a more reasonable one from Atlanta to Charlotte to Washington or Atlanta to Charlotte to the Triad to the Triangle.

[Richhamleigh, DC]

On 10/25/2017 at 12:58 AM, queensguy06 said:

I think you make a very valid point and agree.  The bleed to not only Charlotte but also potentially Nashville cannot be understated.  There are many supporting services and heavy clients that could benefit from being in a neighboring state, both logistically and geographically, but within distance of same day face-to-face transactions.

Another reason why Atlanta makes sense is from a talent standpoint.  Think about all of the major universities within a half day drive.  Here is a 300 mile radius:

Frankly, not impressed.  Within a 2.5 hour drive, much more appropriate, Atlanta, Ga is within 2.5 hours of not much except, Atlanta, GA.  It's not even 2.5 hours of the ocean.  Raleigh-Durham is much better location in terms of access and has a much larger talent pool (universities) than Georgia's over-hyped and only real city.  How many North Carolinians would rather go to Georgia hill vs a NC mountain or a Carolina beach vs. a GA salt marsh?  Georgia and Atlanta are the bloviators of the South.  Amazon in the most over-rated state / city in the country is not good for Charlotte.

Edited October 27, 2017 by Phillydog

[Richhamleigh, DC]

Came across the attached image from a Amazon submittal made by Central New England. I thought their comparison from a geographic standpoint nailed it. In the global battle of economic development Georgia is not our ally.

47 minutes ago, Cadi40 said:

In my opinion the whole East Coast Needs it, Starting in Miami all the way to Boston. All though we all know that it's not happening anytime soon. I would like to see a more reasonable one from Atlanta to Charlotte to Washington or Atlanta to Charlotte to the Triad to the Triangle.

The original plan to connect Charlotte to Raleigh to DC and NY and Boston will be much better for us.  Leave Georgia out.  Cut them off.

Edited October 27, 2017 by Phillydog

[Spartan]

If we don't get it, I actually hope Baltimore or Detroit does. They could really use a shot in the arm.

[Urbs42]

I look at it in terms of this question: what is the primary problem/challenge Amazon is solving for with HQ2? Knowing that answer will give you the short list. From there the company will select a location with the most secondary benefits.    

- Do they foresee an arms race for talent as an existential threat?  If so, North America's major tech centers will be the top contenders 

- Do they foresee the need to make a social statement in this age of disruption (their company being public enemy #1) and thereby reap the benefits that come with a more socially-conscious and self aware brand (mitigate blow-back from increasingly weary public, lighter regulation from lawmakers)?  If so, then cities like Detroit, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Baltimore, Newark fit that bill  

- Do they want proximity and influence with lawmakers and major political power brokers? If so, then D.C./NOVA  

- Do they want prestige and/or proximity to the global business/media/cultural elite? If so,  NYC

- Do they simply need  a low cost (both overhead and cost of living) alternative to base 50k additional employees? If so, then cities like Austin, Denver, ATL, CLT, etc. come into play 

Personally, I don't think money is an obstacle/issue here. Sure they will extract the best deal they can get, but Amazon will absolutely and intentionally land exactly where it believes it needs to be based on the primary challenge it is solving for.  Likely nobody outside the inner circle knows what that is, but it's fun to guess! 

[elrodvt]

^Good post. Makes we wonder if being near DC matters to Bezos? He must be there for the Wash Post a bit. Then he may favor Baltimore, Philly, or NYC (acela).

[Urbs42]

5 hours ago, Urbs42 said:

I look at it in terms of this question: what is the primary problem/challenge Amazon is solving for with HQ2? Knowing that answer will give you the short list. From there the company will select a location with the most secondary benefits.    

- Do they foresee an arms race for talent as an existential threat?  If so, North America's major tech centers will be the top contenders 

- Do they foresee the need to make a social statement in this age of disruption (their company being public enemy #1) and thereby reap the benefits that come with a more socially-conscious and self aware brand (mitigate blow-back from increasingly weary public, lighter regulation from lawmakers)?  If so, then cities like Detroit, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Baltimore, Newark fit that bill  

- Do they want proximity and influence with lawmakers and major political power brokers? If so, then D.C./NOVA  

- Do they want prestige and/or proximity to the global business/media/cultural elite? If so,  NYC

- Do they simply need  a low cost (both overhead and cost of living) alternative to base 50k additional employees? If so, then cities like Austin, Denver, ATL, CLT, etc. come into play 

Personally, I don't think money is an obstacle/issue here. Sure they will extract the best deal they can get, but Amazon will absolutely and intentionally land exactly where it believes it needs to be based on the primary challenge it is solving for.  Likely nobody outside the inner circle knows what that is, but it's fun to guess! 

 

I have too much time on my hands today, but a couple things clicked in my head after I wrote this post. I previously worked in PR for several Amazon businesses, and along the way learned a few things about their philosophy regarding media.

1) They are extremely risk averse. I witnessed executives turn down several interview opportunities with high profile national outlets because they didn’t want to risk having to answer questions about sensitive issues at the time, like how they collect state sales tax or working conditions in their fulfillment facilities.

2) They are nothing if not strategic when it comes to media. Does anyone recall the 60 Minutes interview Bezos did back in 2013 that aired the night before CyberMonday, in which he announced Amazon’s drone delivery plans – even unveiling the prototype for the cameras? This was a brilliant use of media to spike attention and conversation around his company during the biggest online shopping day of the year, especially given that the drone bit was, and still is, years away.    

There is absolutely a strategic reason for the Willie Wonky-style golden ticket contest they have set off. Many people think it’s to heighten the competition and extract concessions from cities and states. I’ve now come around to thinking this is part of a plan to fundamentally reshape the company’s reputation; to blunt the worst effects of a fast-approaching reckoning with the public and lawmakers that could have major consequences for their future.  

Ross Douthat summarized the pressures facing Amazon and other tech giants in this great article, Meet Me in St. Louis Mr. Bezos, in which he also makes the case for the company to locate HQ2 away from an obvious creative-class boomtown. Money quote:

“What if Amazon treated their headquartering decision as an act of corporate citizenship, part public relations stunt and part genuinely patriotic gesture? What if it approached the decision as an opportunity to push back against trends driving populist suspicion of big business — educational and geographic polarization, coastal growth and heartland decay, the sense that the New Economy creates wealth but not jobs and that its tycoons are loyal to globalization rather than their country?”

The Economist dove deeper this week into the scrutiny facing tech giants in the article, Capitol Punishment. Money quote:

“While heavy regulation of tech does not seem likely in the near term, political winds can change quickly and unpredictably… what helps protect internet firms today is that they have remained generally popular among consumers by offering cheap services and widely used products. But if a crunch comes, the big tech companies may find themselves haunted by their behavior now.”

The media blitz Amazon has engineered around HQ2 makes perfect sense if this is their plan. The RFP stunt is generating maximum awareness, setting up the dominoes of populist good will and political benefits that will fall once the surprise decision is announced.

Can you imagine the avalanche of positive press and social media buzz Amazon will receive if they pick this type of underdog city? They will be praised from every corner for setting the ultimate example of how tech companies can revitalize communities and create shared prosperity. And I think it would have the intended effect.  

Obviously I have no idea if this is what Amazon is up to. But it’s a savvy, forward-thinking strategy to mitigate significant business risks. It would be very Amazonian.   

[elrodvt]

NY times today. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/26/business/amazon-headquarters-competition.html

 

Quote

 

That puts a premium on diversity and education, factors important in attracting a talented work force. Given Amazon’s vocal support for diversity and inclusion, it seems unlikely it would choose a city or state perceived as intolerant or that has moved to curb civil rights, like North Carolina’s widely publicized effort to curb gay and transgender rights.

There are obviously many variables still to be assessed, but based on these criteria and the weight I expect Amazon to place on them, here are my finalists, in descending order: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Toronto, Chicago and Boston.