Amazon HQ2

[cjd5050]

So I am curious as to what the NCGA and Cooper are going to do here with 3 cities going after this.   With Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham all interested I think the best politics and leadership would be to define a very generous incentive package for Amazon and offer that package to all 3 cities to use.   It would then be up to each city/county to expand the NC share to make the best offer to Amazon.  

If something like this was done, not only does it offer the best chance for NC as a whole but also avoids an claim of favoritism or politicians at the state level trying to sabotage things at the local level.

Edited September 17, 2017 by cjd5050
typo

[Popsickle]

9 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

So I am curious as to what the NCGA and Cooper are going to do here with 3 cities going after this.   With Charlotte, Raleigh and Durham all interested I think the best politics and leadership would be to define a very generous incentive package for Amazon and offer that package to all 3 cities to use.   It would then be up to each city/county to expand the NC share to make the best offer to Amazon.  

If something like this was done, not only does it offer the best chance for NC as a whole but also avoids an claim of favoritism or politicians at the state level trying to sabotage things at the local level.

I think by Amazon's requirements that both the Triad and Triangle are not qualifiers for HQ2.   All assets should be thrown behind Charlotte with the support that the RTP could play in their expertise in tech. 

[urbanlover568]

5 minutes ago, Popsickle said:

I think by Amazon's requirements that both the Triad and Triangle are not qualifiers for HQ2.   All assets should be thrown behind Charlotte with the support that the RTP could play in their expertise in tech. 

How is the Triangle not a qualifier? We have the the most technical talent, lowest cost of living, and highest growth. 

[Popsickle]

Just now, mpretori said:

How is the Triangle not a qualifier? We have the the most technical talent, lowest cost of living, and highest growth. 

Lack of mass transit connecting DT with the RTP.  Additionally, I am saying that the Triangles tech talent will help a bid made by Charlotte though.

[urbanlover568]

1 minute ago, Popsickle said:

Lack of mass transit connecting DT with the RTP.  Additionally, I am saying that the Triangles tech talent will help a bid made by Charlotte though.

The triangle is different from Charlotte. We don't have a major density center where everything revolves around. We have many high density centers, so a light rail won't be economically feasible. Having lived in Charlotte and Raleigh. I can say that the commute time in Raleigh is drastically lower than Charlotte. 

[Popsickle]

Just now, mpretori said:

The triangle is different from Charlotte. We don't have a major density center where everything revolves around. We have many high density centers, so a light rail won't be economically feasible. Having lived in Charlotte and Raleigh. I can say that the commute time in Raleigh is drastically lower than Charlotte. 

Commute time by car, yes?  Amazon is looking for a place where their employees don't have to drive.  The want to have a "community" where their employees work and live, not a place where everybody is spread out by 25 miles.

[urbanlover568]

10 minutes ago, Popsickle said:

Commute time by car, yes?  Amazon is looking for a place where their employees don't have to drive.  The want to have a "community" where their employees work and live, not a place where everybody is spread out by 25 miles.

I see where you are coming from. RFP states the transportation could be ... "Direct access to rail, train, subway/metro,bus routes" Maybe the HQ is moved to Durham where their Light Rail is entering the engineering phase? Or maybe RTP with added bus routes?  RFP also states "Urban or suburban locations with the potential to attract and retain strong technical talent" or "An urban or downtown campus" .  Could mean a suburban area with bus routs or urban area with light rail. Whatever direction they take,  anywhere in NC would be a win for all of NC. 

Edited September 17, 2017 by mpretori

[Popsickle]

5 minutes ago, mpretori said:

I see where you are coming from. RFP states the transportation could be ... "Direct access to rail, train, subway/metro,bus routes" Maybe the HQ is moved to Durham where their Light Rail is entering the engineering phase? Or maybe RTP with added bus routes?  RFP also states "Urban or suburban locations with the potential to attract and retain strong technical talent" or "An urban or downtown campus" .  Could mean a suburban area with bus routs or urban area with light rail. Whatever direction they take,  anywhere in NC would be a win for all of NC. 

I'm and not sure how long it takes to go from engineering phase to actually ridership, but I think it'll be at least five years, and that is the part, that in my opinion kills the Triangle plan.  Had the Triangle had mass rail transit in place already, I think they would win with no problems.  But overall, I completely agree with the bold statement above. 

[kermit]

7 hours ago, mpretori said:

I see where you are coming from. RFP states the transportation could be ... "Direct access to rail, train, subway/metro,bus routes" Maybe the HQ is moved to Durham where their Light Rail is entering the engineering phase? Or maybe RTP with added bus routes?  RFP also states "Urban or suburban locations with the potential to attract and retain strong technical talent" or "An urban or downtown campus" .  Could mean a suburban area with bus routs or urban area with light rail. Whatever direction they take,  anywhere in NC would be a win for all of NC. 

I think bus-only transit to the HQ2 site is going to be a very tough sell. Based on the current reported mode share of the Seattle HQ (55% walk, bike or take transit) and the employment levels given for HQ2 ('up to 50,000') buses simply can't do the job. At any suburban location in the Triangle (or in the South) there will likely be a max of 1,000 workers who could walk or bike to work (simply due to low densities and the bike-unfriendly arterial roads endemic to the burbs). Moving an additional 20,000 workers to the site via bus transit would require roughly 250 buses at each peak period (assuming 80 person capacity in each). Even moving just 10,000 via transit would require 125 buses -- this is well beyond the capacity of any suburban site (its more than 2 buses a minute for a one hour peak period).

Since I can't imagine Amazon building HQ2 that forces 90+% of their workers to drive alone, I think the Triangle screwed itself out of HQ2 by dragging their feet on transit. Having said that, I think 50,000 people in an office setting is too much for a single line LRT system to handle effectively as well. Downtown Charlotte might work given walkability + bus + LRT + streetcar + improved bike infrastructure + possible future LRT, but suburban Charlotte (like the River District) could not come close to less than 90% auto mode share.   (20,000 workers, 723 pax per three-unit LRT is 28, three-unit trains per hour at peak -- not even the London underground can manage headways of less than 2 minutes)

Shrug. (I am not the guy making the decision)

Edit: the current crushload capacity of the Blue line at peak hour frequencies (6 trains per hour each way) is < 3,000 people per direction an hour

Edited September 18, 2017 by kermit

[Cadi40]

I think if Amazon were going to pick a spot in NC, It would be Charlotte. I say this because the talented workers in the Triad / Triangle will move to Charlotte for Amazon. However, I wouldn't rule them out picking Raleigh/Durham, The Triad seems less likely but who knows. Bottom Line, NC is growing rapidly, Wherever they pick in the state would be tremendous and spark even more growth, Not just in the City they pick, But in the entire State.

[alb1no panther]

y'all really think local talent is a driver?  charlotte leads in NC in so many obvious categories that arguing the point otherwise is a pedantic exercise. 

Edited September 17, 2017 by alb1no panther

[Popsickle]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

I think bus-only transit to the HQ2 site is going to be a very tough sell. Based on the current reported mode share of the Seattle HQ (55% walk, bike or take transit) and the employment levels given for HQ2 ('up to 50,000') buses simply can't do the job. At any suburban location in the Triangle (or in the South) there will likely be a max of 1,000 workers who could walk or bike to work (simply due to low densities and the bike-unfriendly arterial roads endemic to the burbs). Moving an additional 20,000 workers to the site via bus transit would require roughly 250 buses at each peak period (assuming 80 person capacity in each). Even moving just 10,000 via transit would require 125 buses -- this is well beyond the capacity of any suburban site (its more than 2 buses a minute for a one hour peak period).

Since I can't imagine Amazon building HQ2 that requires 90+% of their workers to drive alone, I genuinely think that the Triangle screwed itself out of HQ2 by dragging their feet on transit. Having said that, I think 50,000 people in an office setting is even too much for a single line LRT system to handle effectively. Downtown Charlotte might work given walkability + bus + LRT + streetcar + improved bike infrastructure + possible future LRT, but suburban Charlotte (like the River District) could not come close to less than 90% auto mode share. 

Shrug. (I am not the guy making the decision)

Great post @kermit, I completely agree with you that a single light rail line cannot serve the future needs of HQ2 (and I am not a fan of streetcar, imho it's a scheme to trick people into riding a bus).

I hope that the immediate build out plan (which came out a few months ago) of the transit system will come into play with Amazon. The city or more accurately region impact of Amazon's HQ2 being in Charlotte would absolutely call for that, more than which is already needed. 

I hope the people selling Charlotte to Amazon include that, and maybe somehow BoA and Duke get involved to help get Amazon here with some kind of backing of the complete build out of the system. Which will help all companies in the long run. 

[Cadi40]

Transportation wouldn't be the reason Charlotte doesn't get picked, We are qualified enough where the other Categories make up for the loss of Transit. If Amazon want's their employees living close to HQ2 and living in a Urban setting, Then the Blue Line does the job for now. They aren't hiring 50K right once they pick a City. They might start out with 1K - 4K And then work up from there. I wouldn't expect 50K until a few years after their FULL Campus is built. If Charlotte sticks to their possible plan of adding more light rail lines all at once, Then Charlotte should be fine. I just hope the people making the proposal are smart enough to add that transit is going to be upgraded. 

Amazon should consider this - Think about how much of a hustle and bustle Amazon would be creating if they added 50K Jobs to the Downtown area, There would always be a mob of people walking along side the streets. If for some reason we still don't have the culture Amazon is looking for then you can drive 1 1/2 Hours to Asheville (Which I don't get why all the articles are saying Charlotte doesn't have Culture when there is Southend, NoDa, Elizabeth, Dilworth, And I have heard many people say Charlotte has a mini Seattle Vibe).

I think Charlotte has as good as a shot as anyone else, If not better. I am very optimistic and with the MLS Deal that failed I think Charlotte will learn from past mistakes. In the end, It will be the City that has the best deal, And there is where we have a benefit, Building in Charlotte is Very cheap compared to other Major Cities and With Tax Breaks from Charlotte, It would be Dirt Cheap for Amazon.

[RiverwoodCLT]

Out side of Atlanta, Charlotte Douglas  International Airport ,   it is  #2 busiest in the southeast,  now 11 busiest airport in USA and 25  busiest airport in the world. 

CATS  and the  airport are looking at ways to provide rail service to the airport ,  plus future rail plans to the River District from the airport.

RDU is a midsize airport that does not service as many cities in the USA and Europe as CLT.

Amazon get its workers  from many colleges on the west coast not just in Seattle.  There are some big name college  that are not far from Charlotte that amazon can recruit from.

Has developers that can handle Amazon building needs, 

 

http://www.wbtv.com/story/36350410/potential-for-amazon-hq2-puts-charlotte-leadership-to-work-on-proposal

[queensguy06]

It will be interesting to see how much mass transit plays a role in the final decision.  While I think it has some great upside when pitching a city, I don't think it will ultimately be a deciding factor when weighed against other proposal elements.  Meaning, I think the triangle/Raleigh has as much of a chance as Charlotte when all is said and done.

To put this into perspective, if we put all things equal outside of transit, Charlotte wouldn't have a chance even with cities of comparable size.  Take Denver as a prime example (link to rail map).  Not only is there bus service leaps and bounds more expansive and we'll served than Charlotte's (and I mean night and day how much different), but also Denver has 8 existing light rail lines, one heavy rail line from downtown to the airport, one line under construction, and plans for two additional heavy rail lines and 3 light rail extensions.  Charlotte has one light rail line, one under construction, no train to the airport, and no real concrete plans for any sort of commuter rail - it will shock me if the red line  is completed within a decade.  So as much as some are saying Raleigh lacks the transit infrastructure, the same could clearly be said about Charlotte.

Having said all that, if you put an economic proposal together that outweighs a city like Denver, and you make concerted efforts to build transit infrastructure as the HQ2 grows over a decade or two, you absolutely can win the bidding process.  Anecdoteally, it's not like Settle's rail/bus transit is anything to write home about.  Personally, I think it is pretty on par with Charlotte's; you may be able to make the argument that it is marginally better.  However, no one would use that in making any drastic business decisions. 

Edited September 18, 2017 by queensguy06

[cjd5050]

16 hours ago, Popsickle said:

I think by Amazon's requirements that both the Triad and Triangle are not qualifiers for HQ2.   All assets should be thrown behind Charlotte with the support that the RTP could play in their expertise in tech. 

You kinda missed the point...and that's not how politics work.

Cooper needs to come out with a package that would be there for all 3 and not considerate of opinions on qualifications.  This way they can come up with the largest package possible and not have to worry about political kickback.  

[Popsickle]

2 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

You kinda missed the point...and that's not how politics work.

Cooper needs to come out with a package that would be there for all 3 and not considerate of opinions on qualifications.  This way they can come up with the largest package possible and not have to worry about political kickback. 

If you don't meet the qualifications you shouldn't get butt hurt about the state not supporting a bid for your area and the state focusing on Charlotte.  That's not politics, it's what Amazon wants. 

[queensguy06]

If you're the state, why would you not back all three proposals and give equal treatment to said three?  You're supplying Amazon with three distinctly different options, upping the chances of the state to land HQ2.  Sure, the RFP had some specifics for choosing a city, but all in all it is quite vague.  And that's on purpose - it gives amazon plenty of wiggle room to say "city X met most of our requirements" when I think tax and economic incentives will truly be what lands the company.  That's why you've seen such a wide range of cities listed in the 'top 10 choices' that varies from one news article to another.  Denver, Toronto, Austin, Boston, Baltimore - even just these five are considerably unique from one another.

Back to the state's perspective - another way to think about it is like buying a home.  Rarely does a realtor show a client one property and say', "welp, that's all I got."  They will show you multiple properties with varying degrees of difference, all within your price range.  Because ultimately they don't care what house you choose - just that you buy from them.

Edited September 18, 2017 by queensguy06

[cjd5050]

3 hours ago, Popsickle said:

If you don't meet the qualifications you shouldn't get butt hurt about the state not supporting a bid for your area and the state focusing on Charlotte.  That's not politics, it's what Amazon wants. 

Don't take this the wrong way but it's pretty naive to think that voters would not get 'butt hurt' as you put it.    The number of cities that are going to respond to the RFP is like 5:1 to the number of cities that actually qualify.   Still, the local politicians need to put on a show because that's what politicians do.   Put it another way, I can't see a downside for Cooper to put out a robust package and say the States contribution could be used by any city in NC.   He gets a win, every local and state pol gets a win and it costs them nothing.  That's a unicorn in politics.  

Amazon can want what it wants.  But if they are going to put 50+ cities on a fool's errand they should expect politics to be a part of the process.  

 

[deleted]

22 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

Put it another way, I can't see a downside for Cooper to put out a robust package and say the States contribution could be used by any city in NC.

Agree with this 100%.

[RiverwoodCLT]

I still say that Amazon will pick a city in the Eastern time zone due to the fact that would expand their HQ's hours to 12 hours a day.

Denver is only 1 hour ahead of Seattle time and wound give then only 9 hour HQ day.

 

Edited September 18, 2017 by RiverwoodCLT

[SgtCampsalot]

If Amazon chooses a mid-sized city (let's  say a Greensboro type), it will be a boon for that city and its citizenry for years to come, and eventually will bring the city to its knees for a while afterward when Amazon downsizes, leaves, merges, or closes.

If Amazon chooses a larger city (say, a Charlotte), it will be a boon for the corporate business community and those citizens who already have a solid investment and  in the metro area, and it will be a nail in the coffin of those who rent (out of necessity) and anyone else who needs to work in the city but can't afford to live here. Then it will bring a major blow to the overall economy when Amazon eventually downsizes, leaves, merges, or closes.

Both bleak futures are already set to happen eventually based on the way most cities already operate (concentrating so much economic activity, often not local, in a condensed geographic area, investing in suburban infrastructure, etc), but Amazon would just make the landing all that much harder.

[Spartan]

On 9/14/2017 at 12:38 PM, Miesian Corners said:

You're not seriously saying Austin is less car-oriented than Charlotte are you? 

No, but they would be just as much qualified as Raleigh. Plus: "Keep Charlotte Boring"

 

On 9/14/2017 at 4:01 PM, CLT2014 said:

Using CNN's cost of living calculator, if the median Amazon salary in Seattle was $100,000, they would have to pay $102,000 on average for a similar quality of life in Boston and $120,882 for a similar quality of life in Brooklyn. 

By comparison, they estimate $100,000 in Seattle is like $67,884 in Atlanta, $65,334 in Charlotte, $82,446 in Chicago, $76,361 in Denver, $69,331 in Dallas, $80,221 in Baltimore, and $98,227 in Arlington, VA. 

http://money.cnn.com/calculator/pf/cost-of-living/index.html

Does anybody know if Amazon has employees in Seattle grumbling about cost of living? The company indicated managers could pick which office they base their team at -> are managers looking for a more affordable place to live? $100,000 isn't that high of a salary in many places and I'd be surprised if many people wanted to move from Seattle to Boston (worse weather and more expensive). However, people may be willing to move from Seattle if they could afford a nicer apartment and buy a nice house on $200,000 a year. 

This doesn't make sense. I thought the cost of living in Atlanta was significantly higher than Charlotte. It seems like other than traffic, Atlanta has the best shot.

I know people who lived in Seattle, and they grumble at the fact that Amazon is part of the problem in terms of why housing costs so much in Seattle. If they choose Charlotte and actually build up 50k employees then everyone who lives in town is going to be concerned about it too.

 

On 9/14/2017 at 9:40 PM, Dale said:

We would need to build a hulking viaduct through Uptown to be a mini-Seattle.

277, anyone?

 

On 9/15/2017 at 9:59 AM, caterpillar2 said:

San Francisco is also on the top of the list. They have their well constructed card board boxes all over the city with their stole grocery carts outside. They are so organized that they even have garage sales of garbage they collect.  On the positive side, they seem to not be as aggressive as those in other cities and they generally stay in their self-claimed territory (block). Some are even known by their first names and neighbors often drop off something to eat. There are tons of homeless in S.F. I wish the ones in Charlotte could take lessons from them on human relations.   Back to Amazon. My guess is that either San Diego, Dallas, Raleigh, Charlotte,  Atlanta or some other place in the sunbelt. A huge percent of those working in the silicone valley (so to speak) in Boston relocated to the Raleigh area for various reasons,  i.e.  cost of living, universities,  right to work, workforce, and location, qualified workforce.  Fortunately for us Carolinians, Raleigh and area is the new Silicone Valley. 

I just don't see Raleigh as having a viable application. They have great universities, but IMO they lack all of the other things that Amazon claims to want - namely a major airport and useful mass transit. Lacking a major existing tech employment base is irrelevant. People will move here from Raleigh. I forget who said it, but ALL of the colleges in the Carolinas have major alumni bases here, so it's not a stretch for that pattern to continue, and Charlotte is within an easy drive to ALL of those colleges.

 

On 9/16/2017 at 2:52 PM, KJHburg said:

and uptown Charlotte is the highest land around especially in the vacant acreage of 1st Ward.  What other large US city has that much vacant land immediately adjacent to its urban core like we do? None I can think of. 

Most cities gutted their downtowns in the 60s-70s, so we're not unique in that regard. Take a look at the number of parking lots in downtown Houston. We've got nothing on them. What may help us is that its a relatively contiguous set of parking lots next to two light rail stations and the Brookshire.

 

[CLT2014]

7 minutes ago, Spartan said:

This doesn't make sense. I thought the cost of living in Atlanta was significantly higher than Charlotte. It seems like other than traffic, Atlanta has the best shot.

 

The calculator shows Atlanta as slightly more expensive than Charlotte. I think I described it wrong. A "comparable" salary to $100,00 in Seattle is $67,884 in Atlanta. In Charlotte the comparable is $65,334. So you need less salary in Charlotte compared to Atlanta to maintain the same quality of life as making $100k in Seattle. 

[TheOneRJ]

Raleigh, or anywhere in the Triangle, has absolutely no chance whatsoever at HQ2. If Amazon chose anywhere in NC, it will be Charlotte (for obvious reasons).