Urban Rise => Suburban Decline

[CLT2014]

54 minutes ago, KJHburg said:

this is interesting and will be interesting to see if this trend makes it to Charlotte's center city.  

https://sfist.com/2020/06/20/spurred-by-bay-area-tenant-exoduses-a-renters-market-surfaces-in-san-francisco/

I am telling you this work from home movement will change people's decisions concerning their homes. 

I will say anecdotally I have several single friends approx 22 - 30 who are moving back home with parents temporarily to save on rent for a few months. Many are on the June / July 12 month lease cycle since moving to Charlotte after college and are not renewing this month. Their employers are WFH through the fall or year end and they estimate saving $5,000 - $9,000 on rent. Honestly not that bad a strategy to save some cash for a purchase down payment or just overall savings at a young age. Obviously life in Charlotte isn't as fun as it normally is with things closed or events canceled. 

I could only imagine how much some 20 something's could be saving in markets like NYC, SF, LA, DC, et by temporarily moving home when the cities are more shut down / less fun. I suspect this is temporary though and many will return rather than stay in mom's basement and rents will spike again with the surge of people looking for a lease at one time. Markets that have more renters will have a more mobile population to temporarily save on rent versus homeowners who are stuck in place in metro areas even though they don't necessarily need the proximity to their job location right now. 

Edited June 22, 2020 by CLT2014

[kermit]

IMO a reduction of rents would be a big net positive for the vitality of urban living. If coupled with changes to zoning that reduced the cost of infill (such as zero parking development by right) it might not even reduce supply.

Edited June 22, 2020 by kermit

[KJHburg]

Couple of articles one says the urban cores of the smaller cities such as Raleigh Durham and Charlotte should continue to thrive.   (not so for some of the largest cities like NY, San Fran etc)

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/06/25/labcorps-new-test-could-be-a-boost-to-fight-against-covid-19/

Here is a national article from Bisnow saying cities with less transit thus probably less dense will thrive in the post Corvid 19 world.

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/economic-development/how-are-some-cities-rebounding-faster-from-the-pandemic-economy-cars-104915

Both of these article seem to be good news for Charlotte.  

 

 

[kermit]

14 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Couple of articles one says the urban cores of the smaller cities such as Raleigh Durham and Charlotte should continue to thrive.   (not so for some of the largest cities like NY, San Fran etc)

https://www.wraltechwire.com/2020/06/25/labcorps-new-test-could-be-a-boost-to-fight-against-covid-19/

Here is a national article from Bisnow saying cities with less transit thus probably less dense will thrive in the post Corvid 19 world.

https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/economic-development/how-are-some-cities-rebounding-faster-from-the-pandemic-economy-cars-104915

Both of these article seem to be good news for Charlotte.  

My main man Dan has some thoughts:

I might add that we had pretty much reached the limits of congestion before the bug hit. How will we accommodate more cars that that?

Edited June 26, 2020 by kermit

[joenc]

Our densest zip codes have what, 6000 people per square mile? Most of Manhattan is over 80,000 per square mile.

Moving operations to Uptown Charlotte is basically moving to the suburbs for all intents and purposes.

[KJHburg]

Not sure where to put this put this is a good idea to study the southern sunbelt cities as opposed to having all studies on the older northeastern and midwest cities.   And yes one thing mention is affordability of housing but I would contend that is problem in all the largest metro areas every single one them Sunbelt Rustbelt Coastal cities etc. 

https://ui.uncc.edu/story/sun-belt-cities-growth-research

 

[KJHburg]

Very interesting report from Cushman and Wakefield and office space usage in suburbs vs. CBDs  basically more and more will go to suburbs and especially areas with mixed used environments think Wavery in south Charlotte, Southpark area, reimagined Ballantyne and I would say even Southend which is a lower density than uptown.

https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/insights/covid-19/the-edge-volume-4/urban-to-suburban-the-growing-shift-to-the-suburbs-as-covid-19-changes-the-way-people-live

another story that references the above report features a photo of uptown Charlotte as a secondary market that will benefit from move outs of large densely packed cities like NYC

https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/why-suburbs-secondary-cre-markets-will-benefit-from-next-recovery/

Both these trends will benefit Charlotte with jobs and development I believe. 

[KJHburg]

Suburban Rise Urban Decline or the other way around or Neutral for both here is an article exploring this issue.

https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/will-covid-19-end-the-era-of-urbanization/

[Spartan]

I'm not convinced of a suburban revival coming at the expense of urban areas. I think markets that are extremely overvalued like SF Bay, NYC, etc. may see a drop - but it's likely more of a market correction than anything else.

 

Work from home may be more integrated into work culture, but I don't think it lasts forever in its current state. People who write "news" make predictions to sell subscriptions. Sooner or later the intangibles associated with working IRL (camaraderie, innovation, sense of community/cohesion, etc.)  will force people back into the office. I do think office space will continue to get smaller, though. 

 

Charlotte doesn't have any actual urban neighborhoods. Even uptown is basically a large office park, so I can't see any part of the city hurting. And the so-called "urban" market here seems to be quite strong at this point.

 

 

[InTheYear2000]

As long as there are more amenities in urban areas than in suburban areas, the trend will continue. I think a big part of the eagerness now to live in the burbs is because many of the amenities that justified the urban sacrifice have not been available for a while. Once they come back the trend will likely continue.

[KJHburg]

More evidence of people moving out of densely populated cities like NYC to suburbs and other places.  As someone stated before anywhere in Charlotte is considered suburban by NYC standards but this is does have implications for Charlotte too.  The trend is people moving out further and commuting to offices 1-2x a week I think for some is option and could reinvigorate small towns in our region. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/08/887585383/new-yorkers-look-to-suburbs-and-beyond-other-city-dwellers-may-be-next

Edited August 27, 2020 by KJHburg

[KJHburg]

well things are quieter in the suburbs for sure.   some conflicts up in suburban NJ from city dwellers.

Ex-Urbanites Bring Rude Awakening to Quiet Suburbs | Realtor Magazine

[tozmervo]

4 hours ago, KJHburg said:

well things are quieter in the suburbs for sure.   some conflicts up in suburban NJ from city dwellers.

Ex-Urbanites Bring Rude Awakening to Quiet Suburbs | Realtor Magazine

Need eye-roll reaction

[Dale]

Read recently that London has lost a staggering 10% of its population.

[JRNYP2C]

On 2/10/2021 at 6:55 PM, Dale said:

Read recently that London has lost a staggering 10% of its population.

I heard something to that effect this morning on NPR.  I think it was the business update that is done at 5:50am.  They went into detail about who the pandemic hurt the most - hospitality and such.  They said the two sectors that actually did better were finance and I'm forgetting the other.  I guess I was still semi-awake when the report was going on.

[davidclt]

This is an interesting graphic from: The future of work after COVID-19 | McKinsey

 

From the same report:

Edited February 19, 2021 by davidclt

[rancenc]

Profile on Sedgefield.  I enjoy Andy's vlogs on the various parts of Charlotte and the growth occurring in them.

 

[15895]

Well. The world survived the pandemic. 

What was built during the pandemic?

2020-2022 Units Built By City Proper (excluding NYC [given it had such an high amount])

1. Austin - 29,115 units
2. Houston - 28,423 units
3. Atlanta - 17,886 units
4. LA - 17,779 units
5. DC - 17,300 units
6. Charlotte - 17,213 units
7. Miami - 15,748 units
8. San Antonio - 15,651 units
9. Seattle - 15,439 units
10. Chicago - 15,356 units
11. Denver - 14,761 units
12. Dallas - 13,741 units
13. Nashville - 12,085 units
14. Orlando - 11,028 units
15. Phoenix 10,132 units
16. Columbus 9,944 units
17. Portland - 9,791 units
18. Fort Worth - 9,672 units
19. Minneapolis - 9,569 units
20. Jersey City - 8,083 units


2020-2022 Units Built By City Proper Land Size (excluding NYC)

1. Jersey City - 8,083 units  (14.75 sq mi) = 548 units per mile
2. Miami - 15,748 units  (36.00 sq mi) = 437 units per mile
3. DC - 17,300 units  (61.4 sq mi) = 282 units per mile
4. Seattle - 15,439 units  (83.99 sq mi) = 184 units per mile
5. Minneapolis - 9,569 units  (54.00 sq mi) = 177 units per mile
6. Atlanta - 17,886 units  (135.32 sq mi) = 132 units per mile
7. Orlando - 11,028 units  (110.85 sq mi) = 99 units per mile
8. Denver - 14,761 units  (153.075 sq mi) = 96 units per mile
9. Austin - 29,115 units (319.94 sq mi) = 91 units per mile
10. Portland - 9,791 units  (133.49 sq mi) = 73 units per mile
11. Chicago - 15,356 units  (227.73 sq mi) = 67 units per mile
12. Charlotte - 17,213 units  (310.02 sq mi) = 55 units per mile
13. Columbus 9,944 units  (220.40 sq mi) = 45 units per mile
14. Houston - 28,423 units  (640.44 sq mi) = 44 units per mile
15. Dallas - 13,741 units  (339.604 sq mi ) = 40 units per mile
16. LA - 17,779 units  (469.49 sq mi) = 38 units per mile
17. San Antonio - 15,651 units  (498.85 sq mi) = 31 units per mile
18. Fort Worth - 9,672 units  (347.27 sq mi) = 28 units per mile
19. Nashville - 12,085 units  (504.03 sq mi) = 24 units per mile
20. Phoenix 10,132 units  (518.27 sq mi) = 19 units per mile

https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/new-apartment-construction/

Charlottes zip codes that made it to the top 50 zip codes of Apartments constructed between 2018 & 2022

#27 - 28262 (Greater University City) - 3,562 Units

#46 - 28202 (Uptown) - 2,837 Units 

(Nashvilles large city limits killed its unit density. West End / Gulch was the 4th highest zip code in the US for apartments constructed) 
https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/top-zip-codes-apartment-construction/

 

By Metropolitan Área for 2023: 

Edited October 28, 2023 by AirNostrumMAD