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ironchapman

What Is Fulton County's Future

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With the new city of Sandy Springs (assuming it gets incorporated) and talk of North Fulton's, old Milton's, unincorporated areas incorporating, what do you think Fulton's future is.

Will it split? Consolidate with ATL? Merge with another county? Municipalize? Or will it stay the same? Do something else?

What are your thoughts?

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If I were Fulton, I would remain just the same as today... If it splits, it will reduce it's population, leaving Gwinnett to be the dominant player in the Metro area. Think about THAT for a moment. Wayne Hill being the spokesman for Metropolitan Atlanta... He wants his county to overtake Atlanta anyway, he hates the city that his county is supposed to be on the same side with.

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^ Unfortunately, it won't be too long until Gwinnett Co actually does become the most popolous county. I don't think there is much we can do about that...

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If Gwinnett's drop off in population growth continues, it may not overtake Fulton. The Census Bureau reports that it's growth has slowed, both in speed and numerical increase. The county itself admits growth will slow because they are running out of room. It's smaller than Fulton, but it may in fact pass it or at least be on equal footing. The growth is flowing to Hall, next stop: South Carolina border! :wacko:

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I think as more touristic venues develope in Atlanta, It will drive people to move to Atlanta ( for yall that don't know Atlanta is in Fulton County ) and that will increase Fulton County's population. :D

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Has anyone else noticed the census bureau's estimates of Fulton County? It shows the county to actually be LOSING population. What is up with that? The city of Atlanta is still gaining, and the northern parts of the county should still be experiencing rapid growth with Alpharetta and Roswell. It shows the population to have dropped from about 825,000 in 2002 to about 814,000 in 2004. Pretty major drop off. Hope the city isn't losing population again :(

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Has anyone else noticed the census bureau's estimates of Fulton County? It shows the county to actually be LOSING population. What is up with that? The city of Atlanta is still gaining, and the northern parts of the county should still be experiencing rapid growth with Alpharetta and Roswell. It shows the population to have dropped from about 825,000 in 2002 to about 814,000 in 2004. Pretty major drop off. Hope the city isn't losing population again  :(

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Census bureau are notoriously inaccurate. Actual census numbers frequently show very different trends than their estimates.

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Has anyone else noticed the census bureau's estimates of Fulton County? It shows the county to actually be LOSING population.

I find this hard to believe too. I would be surprised if, when the 2010 census comes in, Fulton has not gained in population.

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It was just a few decades ago that Fulton County lost population - until the growth along the GA 400 corridor. But in this case I don't think it has to do with Atlanta, though don't be surprised if the population growth isn't as impressive in Atlanta due to gentrification - which often decreses population density. But as Sandy Springs & Roswell is maturing into more stable suburbs, population growth is decreasing. Also, East Point & College Park are continuing to decline, as the fast growth in Alpharetta is slowing down in north Fulton.

Fulton Co, is a complex county to analyze - too much to compare it with most counties, since Fulton is a composite of 3 counties. So, expect some odd blips every now & then.

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I understand it's complex history, and the very divided situation it is in with the uneven growth, but I still think they are way off base (what a surprise!). After all, the city estimates on city-data.com show gains for Alpharetta, Roswell, Atlanta, and most of the outer suburbs in the south, although the growth for most of these isn't nearly as strong as it was in the 90's. The growth is now spreading farther into the exurban counties, Forsyth was the fastest grower in the nation for a while, and still is second I believe. However, what may surprise most is that the city of Atlanta's growth appears to be accelerating by all measures. It shows a jump from 416,000 in 2000 to 424,000 in 2003. Oddly enough, Atlanta's largest suburb, Sandy Springs, has no estimates that I could locate. By all accounts, it too is still gaining by the number of housing permits issued and home sales. It probably is approaching 90,000 residents by now or more. I just think the census has gone off the rails sometimes... :whistling:

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That may be why ironchapman, but I think I have seen estimates for Dunwoody, which isn't incorporated either, but I could be wrong on that. In any case, when will we know if Sandy Springs gets its wish? It will make a very impressive city when it incorporates, they say it will cover nearly 40 square miles and include the Perimeter Center complex, plus the central business district on Peachtree. It will be far larger than most other suburbs... I can see why Atlanta would want them to be part of it instead.

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After speaking with our demographic data division head, I realize more about the Census Bureau's estimation procedures & why it is most unlikely that fulton County lost. The census bureau bases their estimates on zip code level data, which means there are often overlapping figures that cover more than one county. Their solution - dump it in the county that has the majority of the zip code area, which could be 50.01% of one zip code.

Since Fulton shares it's border with counties such as Gwinnett, Dekalb & Fayette - it stands to reason what is going on. Additionally, the population from the ARC does show a population gain, which the population is based on census tract level data. Also, other sources indicate population gain - such as the 90,000 new driver licenses issued last year.

In the future, I think I would suggest being a little more sceptical of census estimate figures - as many others have been in the past. Likely, Fulton County's growth has slowed considerably, in fact likely only a minimal gain - but not declining.

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Fascinating... I wasn't aware that some zip codes encompassed more than one county. I'm not aware of any in Florida, since there seems to be at least one zip code for each county seat.

Also, what kind of zip code data does the Census use to do population estimates? One would think that there would be a way to use census tracts rather than use zip code level data and combine them with property records and other stats to generate better estimates that get counted in the right geographic place.

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They receive building permit data - but b/c they are involved with data on a national / regional level, they have not afforded the ability to geocode 'address match' based on a widely available street address data set. So they use the next best thing, the zip code.

Regional agencies do mantain street address data sets of course, so they often have the most accurate data - despite claims that they may be involved with fudging.

I assure you though, most likely there are zip codes in florida that do straddle more than one county.

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^ You're right, after some research I found a couple of zips within farflung sparsely populated areas far from the metropolitan center, although this was the exception and not the norm; most adhered to county boundaries, especially the urban ones. It seems confusing to have zip code boundaries that don't follow them.

I recall as little as 2 years ago, some cell phone companies were using zip codes instead of address matching to try to determine the municipality to pay the utility taxes to. This resulted in the city receiving taxes from unincorporated residents (and the county not receiving anything) and in a zip with multiple municipalities, the named city of the zip code was receiving the revenue. Big mess.

Back to Georgia: given the way Census estimates are done, exposing the flaws in county population counts, is it safe to say that the latest Sandy Springs CDP estimate is significantly off too? Is the 2000 official CDP figure accurate within reason? What kinds of variances can you find among different estimates tabulated by different groups?

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^ You're right, after some research I found a couple of zips within farflung sparsely populated areas far from the metropolitan center, although this was the exception and not the norm; most adhered to county boundaries, especially the urban ones. It seems confusing to have zip code boundaries that don't follow them.

I recall as little as 2 years ago, some cell phone companies were using zip codes instead of address matching to try to determine the municipality to pay the utility taxes to. This resulted in the city receiving taxes from unincorporated residents (and the county not receiving anything) and in a zip with multiple municipalities, the named city of the zip code was receiving the revenue. Big mess.

Back to Georgia: given the way Census estimates are done, exposing the flaws in county population counts, is it safe to say that the latest Sandy Springs CDP estimate is significantly off too? Is the 2000 official CDP figure accurate within reason? What kinds of variances can you find among different estimates tabulated by different groups?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

CDPs are 'built' from blocks or block groups, so they should be as accurate as block level census data.

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South Fulton is picking up growth like crazy. There's so much developable land so close to downtown! What do you think will happen with this?

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There still aren't any developed areas that can or should incorporate into new cities in south Fulton. I do think that Atlanta, East Point & College Park should be granted rights to annex the developed portions directly adjacent to them. Otherwise, much of the rest of the county consists of planned developments like the Chattahoochee Hill Country.

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I agree that the Census Burea estimates are inaccurate. I believe that Atlanta has a minimum of 450,000 people. There's too much development, too much growth, too many extra towers and apartments to convince me otherwise. When you consider the continued visual growth of north Fulton, and to increasing growth in South Fulton, around the Camp Creek area and the further south Fulton cities (Fairburn, etc.), there's no way that Fulton has experienced a loss. I wouldn't doubt that Fulton County has 900,000 right now, and could very well have close to a million people by the next census.

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Bringing back this thread - for this reason:

Last summer, Krista and Lon Fancher moved their two kids into a four-bedroom house in an established neighborhood of Sandy Springs. They bought from a longtime resident, a widow who moved to Florida to be near her grandchildren.

That simple transition

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