CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[southslider]

5 hours ago, kermit said:

Unfortunately the ADM to Airport (and beyond) tracks are owned by NS, so they are not for sale. The remaind of the CSX in town run from ADM to Paw Creek, Mt Holly, Lincolnton ((and then down to Shelby via a roundabout route). 

I know. I was thinking of following CSX to 85 to Little Rock Rd.

 

3 hours ago, jednc said:

AFTER the Red Line

Wishful thinking. Unless after BRT "Red Line" on 77.

 

 

[jednc]

16 minutes ago, southslider said:

I know. I was thinking of following CSX to 85 to Little Rock Rd.

 

Wishful thinking. Unless after BRT "Red Line" on 77.

 

 

Nope. We were promised a train. CATS shouldn't make promises if they don't control the means to keep those promises. No more lines until a TRAIN to North Meck or we start pushing the state legislature to help us not pay that 1/2 cent tax. You think they won't listen?

[CLT2014]

2 hours ago, Matthew.Brendan said:

Le Sigh. Leaves me envious of Denver’s exploding LRT service.

Denver benefited from a creative financing plan and a large transport district of 2.8 million people that also include affluent suburban municipalities for taxes. The con is they had to build trains throughout the area to make everybody happy, rather than to the areas that most need transit and have the density to support it. One lesson we can learn from Denver (and there are SO many good things happening there), is building quality light rail routes is even more important than the number of light rail routes. 

To explain why ridership for Denver RTD is declining despite all the new light rail route and that transit's share of commuting is declining in Denver, RTD spokeman linked it to:
"RTD serves eight of the 12 counties in the Denver-Aurora-Boulder metro area, with over 2.8 million people in 2,400 square miles. Rail connects the region, but it can’t solve all of the region’s transportation needs.
A transit system as sprawling as the Denver region’s requires buy-in for multiple modes of transportation. Achieving that across 41 municipalities can be a daunting task, says Currey. To keep tax dollars flowing means enticing suburban drivers, and building a mode that’s more psychologically appealing, but often less efficient at hauling the masses: light rail."

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2017/11/denver-public-transit-growing-pains/544472/

 

In Q4, Denver RTD voted to reduce service on two of the light rail lines due to low ridership. These routes primarily serve suburban communities without the density around the stations and commuters that prefer cars. 

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/rtd-votes-to-reduce-frequency-of-r-and-w-lines-amid-low-ridership

[southslider]

8 hours ago, jednc said:

Nope. We were promised a train. CATS shouldn't make promises if they don't control the means to keep those promises. No more lines until a TRAIN to North Meck or we start pushing the state legislature to help us not pay that 1/2 cent tax. You think they won't listen?

The repeal vote went so well in 2007. Good luck!

[SgtCampsalot]

Anyway, so the choice between commuter line on CSX, versus LRT via Silver line begs the question: which is the problem that needs the more urgent solution, and which has a better chance of solving that problem:

1) allowing further out communities options beyond 74, and encouraging Monroe to develop bedroom communities,

2) or creating TOD density within metro Charlotte parallel to 74

[kermit]

^ The other consideration is that commuter rail on CSX might be half the cost of the Silver line (if the stars align in terms of a willing shortline partner buying the line).

Unfortunately the Union County bedroom community development does very little to benefit Mecklenburg residents who have been paying into the transit tax for 21 years (while Union county residents haven't intentionally contributed a dime to the pool). 

I would think commuter rail would require Union comming up with 50% of the capital and operating costs (around$250 million up front). Given Union county's extreme tax aversion this is highly unlikely. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by kermit

[Scribe]

I will add the 2 alignment maps of the Silver Line for reference... First from CATS, the second from Charlotte Observer. ( I like the Observer one because the greenway trails are more visible)

Edited February 17, 2018 by Scribe

[Cadi40]

2 hours ago, kermit said:

^ The other consideration is that commuter rail on CSX might be half the cost of the Silver line (if the stars align in terms of a willing shortline partner buying the line).

Unfortunately the Union County bedroom community development does very little to benefit Mecklenburg residents who have been paying into the transit tax for 21 years (while Union county residents haven't intentionally contributed a dime to the pool). 

I would think commuter rail would require Union comming up with 50% of the capital and operating costs (around$250 million up front). Given Union county's extreme tax aversion this is highly unlikely. 

Union county doesn’t pay transit tax because it barely benefits us, Im sure we could get a low transit tax going, but keep in mind the current plans don’t even extend into Union county. If this were a commuter rail that came intimate Indian trail then I would agree and say it might be hard but I’m sure we could still come up with it, Once you get passed Monroe and Wingate, It turns pretty rural, So I don’t think there should be any form of rail running past Monroe or Wingate. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Cadi40

[southslider]

On 2/16/2018 at 8:33 AM, kermit said:

Unfortunately the ADM to Airport (and beyond) tracks are owned by NS, so they are not for sale. The remaind of the CSX in town run from ADM to Paw Creek, Mt Holly, Lincolnton ((and then down to Shelby via a roundabout route). 

I think the tank farm at Paw Creek (which is there because of Colonial Pipeline) will ensure heavy freight traffc on this section of track.

Sorry, I just noticed I did type Wilkinson. I meant parallel to Brookshire. Guess with Airport on the brain, I typed Wilkinson.

But back to the question-- How much of the CSX would be for sale?

[kermit]

On 2/17/2018 at 1:46 PM, southslider said:

But back to the question-- How much of the CSX would be for sale?

Here is what the public knows:

• CSX says it is currently accepting offers for the purchase of any of the tracks in its Florence Division (which is basically all of NC and SC) (it also listed a bunch of other non-core elements of its network outside of our area).
• CSX didn't set a price for any track, just that it is interested in selling at 'the right price.' 
• Since CSX had a major management changeover about a year ago it has been focused on reducing capital expenditures and maintenance costs, they want to focus on a core network and drop every feeder track they can. (the Charlotte tracks are in the feeder category)
• One story I read stated that CSX management will add a clause on every sale that the line must be maintained for freight traffic (e.g. they don't want to see any passenger only sales). But there is plenty of precedent of state's and transit agencies purchasing track from CSX and they allow other operators to carry freight on the tracks in non-core hours.

How much would it sell for? 

I suspect CSX would only entertain offers on the whole Charlotte subdivision (Monroe to Bostic), which is about 100 miles of track. This comparative sale in 2015 in PA and NY was for 282 miles of freight railway that I believe was busier than Charlotte CSX was $214 million (about $800,000 per mile). I think valuations here would be lower since its not going to be a class 1 RR making the purchase plus the the demise of coal has taken a large chunk of revenue out of the industry.

  http://www.nscorp.com/content/nscorp/en/news/norfolk-southerncompletesacquisitionofdelawarehudsonsouthlinepos.html

I can't find any links to it but when the NCGA was discussing selling the NCRR to NS several years ago the prices being discussed where also in the 1 million per mile range (IIRC).

Given all this, I would guess that CSX would look seriously at offers of $100 million for the 100 miles of track. The 75 miles of tracks west of Gateway could be a viable, stand-alone freight operation with considerable value (assuming the CSX tracks from Bostic to Spartanburg remain in operation).  By selling / leasing the tracks west of town to a shortline (ACWR perhaps),  CATS might be able to take possession of the CLT-Monroe trackage for $50ish million.

All of these tracks are in pretty good shape, but singled tracked. Getting the tracks in decent, high-frequency, commuter rail condition would require (at minimum) PTC, extensive passing sidings and better grade crossings all of which might cost $100 million? Full double tracking might be $250 million?

A light rail Silver Line will certainly be more than $1 billion.

[All of this is total back of the envelope guesswork -- I am not an expert!]

EDIT: I don't think the ACWR has the money to make the purchase, but they would be a fantastic owner of these tracks since they already connect to them at 16th street and in theory they could interchange freight with CSX in Norwood or Wadesboro without using the Charlotte to Monroe tracks.

EDIT edit: This stretch of track would be a decent purchase for NCDOT (and they would certainly be a buyer if CSX decided to abandon it). Since it connects to the NCRR, it connects our largest port to our largest city, it accesses some disadvantaged areas that are ripe for industrial development (particularly Cleveland and Rutherford Counties) and it provides access to the state's largest metro, these tracks are worth a great deal to the state. It could be leased as a package with the connecting portions of the P&N in Gaston. Finally, we have a state-owned institution who is a very good manager of rail (the NCRR). If we could manage to set aside small-government dogma this could be a significant asset for citizens of the state.

Edited February 18, 2018 by kermit

[lit]

Until funding materializes, this is all still just a dream to me. Also, I wish they had one more station on the proposed route between Conference and Village Lake, right where that turn is (I live off of Sharon Forest)

[jednc]

On 2/16/2018 at 10:48 PM, southslider said:

The repeal vote went so well in 2007. Good luck!

The repeal vote was for Mecklenburg residents...not the NCGA. Besides, I don't want to repeal the whole thing, just stop paying in Huntersville, Cornelius and Davidson if we aren't going to get the train we were promised. Try running the system without the wealth of North Meck. Good luck with THAT.

[cjd5050]

On 2/17/2018 at 3:08 PM, kermit said:

Given all this, I would guess that CSX would look seriously at offers of $100 million for the 100 miles of track. The 75 miles of tracks west of Gateway could be a viable, stand-alone freight operation with considerable value (assuming the CSX tracks from Bostic to Spartanburg remain in operation).  By selling / leasing the tracks west of town to a shortline (ACWR perhaps),  CATS might be able to take possession of the CLT-Monroe trackage for $50ish million.

All of these tracks are in pretty good shape, but singled tracked. Getting the tracks in decent, high-frequency, commuter rail condition would require (at minimum) PTC, extensive passing sidings and better grade crossings all of which might cost $100 million? Full double tracking might be $250 million?

A light rail Silver Line will certainly be more than $1 billion.

So for about $400 million (safe overage), there could be a double tracked commuter line running from Monroe > Indian Trail > Stallings > Matthews > 3-4 stops > Gateway Station?   How the hell does this not happen?  

 

 

[SgtCampsalot]

7 minutes ago, cjd5050 said:

So for about $400 million (safe overage), there could be a double tracked commuter line running from Monroe > Indian Trail > Stallings > Matthews > 3-4 stops > Gateway Station?   How the hell does this not happen?  

I think the trick is the populace now wants LRT.

[cjd5050]

On 2/16/2018 at 2:31 PM, jednc said:

Nope. We were promised a train. CATS shouldn't make promises if they don't control the means to keep those promises. No more lines until a TRAIN to North Meck or we start pushing the state legislature to help us not pay that 1/2 cent tax. You think they won't listen?

Didn't seem to help with the tolls..   Don't get me wrong.  North Meck got the shaft but I am not sure much would change. 

3 minutes ago, SgtCampsalot said:

I think the trick is the populace now wants LRT.

Isn't this just a matter of education and leadership?     If the leadership at CATS or those with a voice said you could have a commuter line at half the price and with almost the same benefit...people would be very interested in that.   

[southslider]

7 hours ago, jednc said:

 Try running the system without the wealth of North Meck. Good luck with THAT.

Should only be so lucky. The Village Rider bus routes in North Meck have some of the lowest passengers per hour in the entire system.

The NCGA would also need to address CATS having free access to the oh-so-popular toll lanes. Can't imagine throwing that away just because BRT ain't a choo-choo.

[jednc]

16 hours ago, southslider said:

Should only be so lucky. The Village Rider bus routes in North Meck have some of the lowest passengers per hour in the entire system.

The NCGA would also need to address CATS having free access to the oh-so-popular toll lanes. Can't imagine throwing that away just because BRT ain't a choo-choo.

I wouldn't hold my breath on those toll lanes remaining as is either. We'll see.

As far as cutting service in North Meck - I know a couple of people who would be thrilled with that. They constantly rail against the service because there seems to be no one riding. So, go ahead and push for those services to be cut...and cut the North Meck residents out of the money obligations for the rest of the system. I can guarantee strong support from the northern towns for that idea.

Edited February 20, 2018 by jednc

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

2 hours ago, jednc said:

I wouldn't hold my breath on those toll lanes remaining as is either. We'll see.

As far as cutting service in North Meck - I know a couple of people who would be thrilled with that. They constantly rail against the service because there seems to be no one riding. So, go ahead and push for those services to be cut...and cut the North Meck residents out of the money obligations for the rest of the system. I can guarantee strong support from the northern towns for that idea.

That isn't going to happen. Suburban residents who avoid City of Charlotte property taxes but benefit from their services during the day already take advantage of the city. 

[jednc]

19 hours ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

That isn't going to happen. Suburban residents who avoid City of Charlotte property taxes but benefit from their services during the day already take advantage of the city. 

Which City of Charlotte services am I benefiting from exactly?

[southslider]

^The same types of services any of us enjoy visiting North Meck Towns.

Back to Silver Line, a plurality of County residents think Airport should be next.  As long as CATS moves towards Silver Line (Matthews to Airport) being built (even initially just advancing design in the next year or so), then voters should be largely satisfied.  The preferred modes and prioritized sequencing for each corridor will ultimately face voter validation, if and when additional local funding is sought.

Ironically, North Corridor could get built first, if accepting BRT.  But there again, Silver Line could have been built already as BRT, too, but East Charlotte and Matthews held out long enough to at least see the adopted alignment be LRT.

[jednc]

24 minutes ago, southslider said:

^The same types of services any of us enjoy visiting North Meck Towns.

Back to Silver Line, a plurality of County residents think Airport should be next.  As long as CATS moves towards Silver Line (Matthews to Airport) being built (even initially just advancing design in the next year or so), then voters should be largely satisfied.  The preferred modes and prioritized sequencing for each corridor will ultimately face voter validation, if and when additional local funding is sought.

Ironically, North Corridor could get built first, if accepting BRT.  But there again, Silver Line could have been built already as BRT, too, but East Charlotte and Matthews held out long enough to at least see the adopted alignment be LRT.

We ARE talking about the Silver Line and its place in line. A plurality of County residents think the Red Line should be next. As CATS used the promise of the Red Line in order to gain support for the 1/2 transit tax, a plurality of North Meck citizens and taxpayers expect that promise to be kept. This seems hard for some to understand for some reason. Weird.

[kermit]

1 hour ago, jednc said:

Which City of Charlotte services am I benefiting from exactly?

I think the big one is the growth engine that drives real estate appreciation for everyone in the metro.

#Unlessyouarearenter

[jtmonk]

34 minutes ago, jednc said:

We ARE talking about the Silver Line and its place in line. A plurality of County residents think the Red Line should be next. As CATS used the promise of the Red Line in order to gain support for the 1/2 transit tax, a plurality of North Meck citizens and taxpayers expect that promise to be kept. This seems hard for some to understand for some reason. Weird.

I can sympathize with you to an extent on this but saying that the Red Line should be next is where you lose me.  CATS needs to target specific lines that are actually going to generate ridership and development and prove to be successful before building a line to appease a few people.  If they go ahead and build the Red Line and it turns out to be a failure then you can go ahead and cross out any other lines ever being built.  

[southslider]

Red Line can be next, if BRT, and then within a decade. Otherwise, Silver Line will be the next LRT, but also a decade or more from now.

 

 

[jednc]

49 minutes ago, southslider said:

Red Line can be next, if BRT, and then within a decade. Otherwise, Silver Line will be the next LRT, but also a decade or more from now.

 

 

But BRT is not what was promised. Why do people find it so easy to break promises or not hold agencies to their promises? I'm sure we'd all like to play the shell game of what we promised vs. what we're willing to do now. It doesn't work that way. So, my final word on the subject is this: this transit supporter will do everything in his power to stop any other line from skipping to the front of the line ahead of the RED LINE RAIL. It's pretty simple really. I will make a deal with the devil (the NCGA) and play on all their worst aspects to stop anything else because I will no longer have any confidence in CATS if they try to weasel out of their promise (a promise made before many on this board even lived here I might add). People can kid themselves all they want, but deep down you know that the NCGA would love to have some excuse to punish Charlotte and to strike a blow to mass transit (as they already have). I do not live in Charlotte, so ultimately my allegiance is to my own town. I'll throw Charlotte under that metaphorical BRT if and when I lose confidence in CATS.

1 hour ago, jtmonk said:

I can sympathize with you to an extent on this but saying that the Red Line should be next is where you lose me.  CATS needs to target specific lines that are actually going to generate ridership and development and prove to be successful before building a line to appease a few people.  If they go ahead and build the Red Line and it turns out to be a failure then you can go ahead and cross out any other lines ever being built.  

Well, I can understand what you are saying, but it wasn't me who said the Red Line should be next. It was CATS. We were supposed to be BEFORE the BLE, but at the time they said that circumstances had evolved so that they had an opportunity to get funding for the BLE and they were having no luck negotiating with Norfolk Southern anyway. So, the BLE jumped ahead. Now it's the Red Line's turn. That's not me inserting my own wishes; that has been the plan for 20 plus years. All I'm saying is, I won't sit by and let CATS change the plan yet again when I pay that 1/2 transit tax and only expect what was promised to my town and region. I didn't dream up this plan...I'm simply saying I plan to do my best to hold CATS accountable for what they promised.