CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[Hushpuppy321]

Now that the Arts Tax Referendum failed hopefully City Council will Approved the $50 Million Needed to Engineer Out the Silverline.   Until that happens we’ll never know the true costs.  Hopefully another referendum will be placed on the ballot next year during heavy turnout.  That’s probably the only way the Quarter Cent Tax will be passed.

[KJHburg]

I don't have a dog in this fight (could not vote on this Arts tax) but I would have voted no not because I am against the arts but I am this type of funding for it.  It should come out of tourism tax revenues.  I think this .25% tax should be for transit.     All power comes from the state and beyond this .25% the city would have to go to state to ask for approval.  That is risky.   so I think this quarter cent sales tax should be for funding mechanism for transit and of course it will not cover it all.  I think special taxing districts around the transit lines should be done to gain revenue since these properties are benefitting greatly from the transit investment.  That is my thoughts. 

One more thing I think CATS needs new leadership to move the next level.  

Edited November 6, 2019 by KJHburg

[Scribe]

16 minutes ago, Madison Parkitect said:

There's going to be a lot of discussion at CATS headquarters this morning about whether they should try to get a tax increase on the ballot next year and take advantage of the turnout expected in a very contentious national election...

Lets take a look at our history in this...

2014 referendum on sales tax increase failed 61%-39%

2014 voter turnout was ~40%

 

2019 referendum on sales tax failed with 57%-43%

2019 voter turnout is < 20%

[Madison Parkitect]

45 minutes ago, Scribe said:

Lets take a look at our history in this...

2014 referendum on sales tax increase failed 61%-39%

2014 voter turnout was ~40%

 

2019 referendum on sales tax failed with 57%-43%

2019 voter turnout is < 20%

The 2020 election will not be the same in turnout or in demographics as 2014.

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

1 hour ago, Madison Parkitect said:

There's going to be a lot of discussion at CATS headquarters this morning about whether they should try to get a tax increase on the ballot next year and take advantage of the turnout expected in a very contentious national election...

I think its about as good of a time as any to put it on the ballot. The language is extremely important to getting it passed, but considering if Charlotte is more than 75% D in a national election, clearing 50% for transportation shouldn't be too difficult of a task.

[Madison Parkitect]

1 minute ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

I think its about as good of a time as any to put it on the ballot. The language is extremely important to getting it passed, but considering if Charlotte is more than 75% D in a national election, clearing 50% for transportation shouldn't be too difficult of a task.

The language is very important, and I think this tax failure shows that. It was worded so poorly, the ballot basically just said "do you want to pay more in taxes yes/no?" without any explanation of what it was for.

[kermit]

14 minutes ago, Madison Parkitect said:

The language is very important, and I think this tax failure shows that. It was worded so poorly, the ballot basically just said "do you want to pay more in taxes yes/no?" without any explanation of what it was for.

I believe this language is now required by the state on all sales tax ballot initiatives. Thank the yall’queda for that one.

I wonder if Lewis is more focused on bonding out TIFF revenue?

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by kermit

[CLT2014]

34 minutes ago, Madison Parkitect said:

The language is very important, and I think this tax failure shows that. It was worded so poorly, the ballot basically just said "do you want to pay more in taxes yes/no?" without any explanation of what it was for.

Legally speaking it was just an increase in the sales taxes. The explanation of what the county planned  to use it for is marketing that should not be on a ballot since their plan was not legally binding and the county could use the tax increase for whatever they wanted. Five minutes after the vote passed, the county could shift the money if they wanted to other areas of the budget. The intent of the sales tax increase is no different than a candidate running on one platform and then flip flopping after the election. It is a promise, but not a requirement. Promises can be broken.

That's different than legally binding bond money that specifies what the bond is intended for and the county can't shift it to other categories. 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by CLT2014

[tozmervo]

52 minutes ago, Madison Parkitect said:

The language is very important, and I think this tax failure shows that. It was worded so poorly, the ballot basically just said "do you want to pay more in taxes yes/no?" without any explanation of what it was for.

As others have said, the language was per state law. ASC knew that would be a major problem, since the default position for folks not savvy to the issues would be "no." That's a steep hill to climb. 

From what I see online - facebook, reddit, etc - there's clear support for additional taxation for transit. Where arts was a harder sell, I think there's much louder voices for transit. In Charlotte, there's also clear and tangible evidence of what transit can do.

[CLT>]

2 hours ago, Madison Parkitect said:

There's going to be a lot of discussion at CATS headquarters this morning about whether they should try to get a tax increase on the ballot next year and take advantage of the turnout expected in a very contentious national election...

Let's hope they've been working all along on a plan that will include TIF funding, bonds, and if they want sales tax revenue a special dispensation from the Leg on having the transit sales tax have its own language and dedicated funding like it did the first time. But for now they should focus on bonds and TIF, especially with borrowing costs  so low right now. But first they need that study started...

[RANYC]

39 minutes ago, CLT2014 said:

Legally speaking it was just an increase in the sales taxes. The explanation of what the county planned  to use it for is marketing that should not be on a ballot since their plan was not legally binding and the county could use the tax increase for whatever they wanted. Five minutes after the vote passed, the county could shift the money if they wanted to other areas of the budget. The intent of the sales tax increase is no different than a candidate running on one platform and then flip flopping after the election. It is a promise, but not a requirement. Promises can be broken.

That's different than legally binding bond money that specifies what the bond is intended for and the county can't shift it to other categories. 

 

In total agreement here.  The referendum language asked us to trust that the appropriations would be handled as expected, and that's just too little control.   I also think voters decided there were higher-order priorities. 

A transit tax referendum needs legally binding specifics, which I think will come with a plan.  People want to know that the hike is associated with specifically-defined and planned-out projects that have gone through civic engagement and debate.  Had the the arts referendum been attached to, say, an iconic opera house or some sort of Central Park in Uptown, I think it would have had a better shot at passage - although it still would not have passed because I think voters believe there are too many other priorities for voters.

My response -

>do a much better job campaigning for a sales tax referendum for transit

>legally obligate the sales tax to the silver line extension with established stations represented in a cross-section of locations in the city (affluent areas get station access just as poorer areas in West Charlotte get access in what hopefully will be stimulative development

>potentially incorporate park space and plazas around silver line stations at the outset of planning

[King of the Queen City]

I appreciate the thoughtful insight about this issue. It sounds like for most of you it was not a question about whether we should support arts, parks, and education (it is obvious that we should), but a question of whether this particular tax was the best way to do it. This does open the door for a transit tax now and I do hope they take advantage of the opportunity. As for the arts, hopefully some private donors will step up to the plate.

[turbocraig]

Observer reports $50M Silver Line route study approved. 

[kermit]

4 hours ago, turbocraig said:

Observer reports $50M Silver Line route study approved. 

Quote

Marcus Jones, the city manager, told council on Tuesday the $50 million study will take 2 to 3 years — not the 5 to 7 originally estimated.

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2019/11/12/council-oks-50-million-light-rail-study.html

Back of the envelope time line:

• Silver Line preliminary engineering complete circa January 2023
• FFGA grant application complete 2024, approval (?) late 2024 / early 2025
• Construction: 6 years (roughly the time span of 10 miles of BLE construction -- don't forget the Silver Line is 26 miles), complete early 2031
• Revenue service: Late Summer 2031

Wild cards:

• Local funding source
• State funding agreements
• Federal funding availability
• BLE-E engineering -- will it be a 'big bang' or just one project at a time?
• Resolving Blue Line capacity constraints

This is an optimistic schedule, but it ain't fast enough!

Edited November 13, 2019 by kermit

[CLT2014]

42 minutes ago, kermit said:

Aint fast enough!

Seriously. 

12 years ago, the iPhone was first getting released to the public, Airbnb was trying to start up, Android was first introduced, Uber wasn't even on the radar, the economy hadn't crashed, General Motors brands still included Pontiac, Saturn, Saab, and Hummer, General Electric was the 6th largest company by revenue in the USA (today it is similar in size to Kroger at 21), and George Bush was still President.

Hard to imagine how much will change 12 years into the future in 2031 and what we will have missed out on by not having more rail.

Edited November 13, 2019 by CLT2014

[King of the Queen City]

The most important thing on the silver line in my opinion is connecting uptown to the airport. When the terminal lobby expansion gets finished in 5 years it would be great to have the people mover and light rail station in operation.  Gaston County could step up to take it a little further to Belmont, but it wouldn’t benefit the city of Charlotte much to pay for anything past the airport going west.  The portion from Uptown to Matthews could be a phase 2 that opens 5 years later.

[15895]

1 hour ago, King of the Queen City said:

The most important thing on the silver line in my opinion is connecting uptown to the airport. When the terminal lobby expansion gets finished in 5 years it would be great to have the people mover and light rail station in operation.  Gaston County could step up to take it a little further to Belmont, but it wouldn’t benefit the city of Charlotte much to pay for anything past the airport going west.  The portion from Uptown to Matthews could be a phase 2 that opens 5 years later.

 

I dunno. Matthews is infinitely more important than the airport. I mean. How many people in Charlotte are going to take light rail to airport?

 

For airport workers. Maybe that justifies ridership more. Perhaps. But really just getting  lines to hit 485 Is the most important  part of the light rail piece. I bet ridership would be a lot higher if the extension reached 485. 
 

in any event. I think a successful system will touch multiple corners of 485 with giant park & rides. If it doesn’t cater to commuters above all, I don’t think it will live up to its ridership potential. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by AirNostrumMAD

[Dale]

What I’m seeing: study accelerated, finish line one year AFTER the 2030 date that was commonly bandied about. 

[kermit]

22 minutes ago, Dale said:

What I’m seeing: study accelerated, finish line one year AFTER the 2030 date that was commonly bandied about. 

I was just estimating a timeline based on our BLE experience. 

Perhaps Lewis has a plan to speed up construction? Perhaps..... (Lewis has not earned the benefit of the doubt)

Lewis will need to get financing squared away soon. The FFGA can’t get sent without committed funding in place. He only has two November election cycles available that will let him get close to his 2030 date. The clock is ticking.

[CarolinaDaydreamin]

3 hours ago, AirNostrumMAD said:

 

I dunno. Matthews is infinitely more important than the airport. I mean. How many people in Charlotte are going to take light rail to airport?

 

For airport workers. Maybe that justifies ridership more. Perhaps. But really just getting  lines to hit 485 Is the most important  part of the light rail piece. I bet ridership would be a lot higher if the extension reached 485. 
 

in any event. I think a successful system will touch multiple corners of 485 with giant park & rides. If it doesn’t cater to commuters above all, I don’t think it will live up to its ridership potential. 

Connecting a city center and existing line to the international airport is much more relevant from a connectivity perspective to a tertiary suburb.

[tozmervo]

3 hours ago, Dale said:

What I’m seeing: study accelerated, finish line one year AFTER the 2030 date that was commonly bandied about. 

Tbh I would be extremely impressed if we got that close to competing the 2030 plan ever, much less just one year late

[King of the Queen City]

A lot of people (both employees and travelers) take the Sprinter bus from the CTC to the airport or the 60 bus from Tyvola Station to the airport.  Though people who carry a lot of luggage would probably prefer another mode, light rail is a good option for those who travel light such as myself. If Gaston County will cover the cost to take the silver line on into Belmont then the planned people mover to the station makes sense. If not then the light rail could just go directly to the terminal.

[15895]

7 hours ago, CarolinaDaydreamin said:

Connecting a city center and existing line to the international airport is much more relevant from a connectivity perspective to a tertiary suburb.

I disagree. The airport is going to be slower to get to than by car unless you live somewhere along independence closer to uptown. The airport from the blue line would suck due to what I imagine will be poor connectivity.

Matthews would serve people, locals, daily. CLT airport isn’t even much busier than Raleigh’s airport (excluding connecting traffic) and it’s so close to center city with good access. 

[Dale]

Now this is a line I’d patronize. A five-minute car drop-off to the Matthews station. Car would likely be quicker to the airport, but I’d have to pay long term parking. 

[CLT2014]

It would be interesting to see if light rail stimulates ridership significantly over the Sprinter Bus. For example, it the Sprinter Bus has 1,000 passengers per day, would light rail increase ridership to 6,000 to the airport or would we build something for billions of dollars to just double ridership to 2,000 per day? Some airport stations are rather successful, but many have so - so ridership and if the line didn't route through commuter suburbs as well, the line would likely be considered a failure. The good thing about Charlotte's line is it could pick up commuter riders in West Charlotte to justify the low # of boardings at the airport itself (I'd estimate we end up with a # of boardings similar to Phoenix or Portland at the airport).

Some average daily boardings at rail stations for airports around the country:
Phoenix: 1,900 per day
Portland: 2,461 per day
San Francisco BART: 6,587 per day
DFW Airport: 900 per day
SEPTA Airport Line in Philadelphia: 6,800 per day (#'s include suburban stations as well)
San Diego Middletown/Airport: 724 per day
Newark Airport: 4,250 per day (station has 2 NJ Transit lines and 2 Amtrak lines)
 

Edited November 13, 2019 by CLT2014