CATS Long Term Transit Plan - Silver, Red Lines

[CLTranspo]

I like this, although I would say the length and capacity limitations of light rail are going to be lower than for a heavy rail metro line (you compared to DC’s metro red line)

[kermit]

On 12/20/2019 at 10:45 AM, Hushpuppy321 said:

I would love to see Future Plans for regional Commuter Rail for the Greater Charlotte Region.  Lightrail & BRT should mostly serve Mecklenburg County.

A North-South Route.  Mt. Mourne/Statesville to Rock Hill (Including Ft. Mill)

A East-West Route.  Monroe to Gastonia

A Northeast Route.  Salisbury to Charlotte (Including Kannapolis & Concord)

CATS and several adjacent MPO’s found the money to hire a consultant to develop a regional transit plan for the area shown in the graphic below. They issued an RFQ back in September, I believe they hired HDR (?) and plan development will start in the Spring. (A brief description of this is on p 103 of the most recent quarterly report which is linked above).

 

 

I agree that regional transit planning should be as -regional- as possible. Ideally commuter rail would connect Charlotte to nearby metros as well as our suburbs, so in a perfect world we we see the following lines:

Columbia — CGS — Winston Salem (via Mooresville)

Greenville / Asheville (via Spartanburg)  — CGS — Greensboro (via Salisbury)

Rockingham (via Monroe) — CLT 9th street—  Lincolnton / Hickory (plus Morganton, Marion plus a Lenoir branch all via Mt Holly)

CGS — Albemarle (via Norwood)

All of these tracks exist (although significant repair work would be needed at Saluda to get to Asheville and the O-line to Winston). Clearly not every train would need to travel to the end points. But this would creat a massive regional labor market that was focused on uptown Charlotte and facilitate B to B throughout the Piedmont.

if only South Carolina was a willing partner...

(a 10 mile Kings Mountain to Shelby shortcut route along US 74 would also be a game changer for Cleveland and Rutherford Counties)

Edited December 22, 2019 by kermit

[Hushpuppy321]

4 hours ago, kermit said:

CATS and several adjacent MPO’s found the money to hire a consultant to develop a regional transit plan for the area shown in the graphic below. They issued an RFQ back in September, I believe they hired HDR (?) and plan development will start in the Spring. (A brief description of this is on p 103 of the most recent quarterly report which is linked above).

 

 

I agree that regional transit planning should be as -regional- as possible. Ideally commuter rail would connect Charlotte to nearby metros as well as our suburbs, so in a perfect world we we see the following lines:

Columbia — CGS — Winston Salem (via Mooresville)

Greenville / Asheville (via Spartanburg)  — CGS — Greensboro (via Salisbury)

Rockingham (via Monroe) — CLT 9th street—  Lincolnton / Hickory (plus Morganton, Marion plus a Lenoir branch all via Mt Holly)

CGS — Albemarle (via Norwood)

All of these tracks exist (although significant repair work would be needed at Saluda to get to Asheville and the O-line to Winston). Clearly not every train would need to travel to the end points. But this would creat a massive regional labor market that was focused on uptown Charlotte and facilitate B to B throughout the Piedmont.

if only South Carolina was a willing partner...

(a 10 mile Kings Mountain to Shelby shortcut route along US 74 would also be a game changer for Cleveland and Rutherford Counties)

Also - I think that viable commuter rail would stretch no longer than 1 hour outwards radially from Charlotte Center City.  Anything  longer than that I view as InterCity Rail.  

CLT to Salisbury = 42.7 miles

CLT to Statesville = 45 miles

CLT to Rock Hill = 27 miles 

CLT to Monroe = 28 miles

CLT to Gastonia / Kings Mtn = 28 to 33 miles

My question is what is the likelihood that the Railroad owners would permit Heavy Rail Commuter type trains within their R.O.W?  

[kermit]

1 hour ago, Hushpuppy321 said:

My question is what is the likelihood that the Railroad owners would permit Heavy Rail Commuter type trains within their R.O.W?  

On Thursday we saw a freight railroad take around $1million per mile to split one of its important routes in half to accommodate new tracks for passenger rail (DC to Richmond). In addition, freight railroads are loosing traffic from traditional sources (e.g. coal) and need to replace it with something.

While It won't be free, I think we are about to see private RR companies begin to sell off ROW and, in other cases, accommodate more passenger rail on existing tracks for a fee.  This transition will cost money, but it will be far cheaper than widening roads and creating more auto travel.

Edited December 22, 2019 by kermit

[Seaboard Fellow]

On 12/22/2019 at 10:29 AM, kermit said:

a 10 mile Kings Mountain to Shelby shortcut route along US 74 would also be a game changer for Cleveland and Rutherford Counties

Securing the ROW now prior to the inevitable growth of western Gaston and Cleveland Counties is important. I hope this shortcut is recognized by Charlotte region transportation planners. 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Seaboard Fellow

[XRZ.ME]

Seattle's sound transit's illustration of light rail vehicle capacity.

 

[kermit]

Should the regional transit planning initiative get any momentum it appears that US DOT is rolling out a rural transportation funding program which includes rail and transit components.

https://www.progressiverailroading.com/federal_legislation_regulation/news/USDOT-seeks-public-input-on-rural-transportation-initiative--59384

 

[videtur quam contuor]

Is this kind of information and planning in your remit professionally?

[kermit]

30 minutes ago, tarhoosier said:

Is this kind of information and planning in your remit professionally?

Kinda yes, kinda no.  (I have a weird job, I’ll elaborate over beer at the Comet sometime)

Edited December 30, 2019 by kermit

[Madison Parkitect]

1 hour ago, kermit said:

Kinda yes, kinda no.  (I have a weird job, I’ll elaborate over beer at the Comet sometime)

Be honest, are you a train?

[SydneyCarton]

I'd like to see express trains.  When I lived near Blakeney,  I often drove to the 485 stop and rode from there to Uptown.  It took forever due to all of the stops.    An express train would make it a much better commute.

Anyway, although that’s a beautiful area, commuting from there was so terrible, we moved to Myers Park.

Edited January 3, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[Hushpuppy321]

17 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'd like to see express trains.  When I lived near Blakeney,  I often drove to the 485 stop and rode from there to Uptown.  It took forever due to all of the stops.    An express train would make it a much better commute.

Anyway, although that’s a beautiful area, commuting from there was so terrible, we moved to Myers Park.

I think that’s a great idea but I’m not sure how it could be accommodated.  I believe that during rush hour the BlueLine is supposed to run every 8 minutes.  Not sure if making one of those trains an ‘express’ every hour from (6 -9am) would be feasible.  Only stopping at major Park n Ride stops (485, Archdale, Scaleybark, etc.) on the way Uptown.

[kermit]

^ Express trains are not possible at rush hour with the current two track system.

[Matthew.Brendan]

At this point we should be happy if we can get anything as simple as increased frequency and (eventually) 3-car platforms.

[kermit]

Express buses, called MetroRAPID will begin running from North Meck to Uptown via the toll lanes in February.

Quote

• MetroRAPID 48X: Northcross Express - Northcross park-and-ride
• MetroRAPID 53X: Northlake Express - Serving the Ridge Road park-and-ride and the Northlake park-and-ride via the Lakeview Road direct connector to the toll lanes.
• MetroRapid 63X (new): Huntersville Express - Serving the Huntersville-Gateway park-and-ride via Hambright direct connector and Statesville Road
• MetroRAPID 77X: North Mecklenburg Express - Serving the Cornelius park-and-ride (replaces service on the 48X) and the Davidson-Gateway park-and-ride

Once commuters get to the park and ride the trip to Uptown will be faster than the Red Line could ever be.

https://www.wfae.org/post/cats-changing-north-meck-express-bus-routes-use-i-77-toll-lanes

[southslider]

6 hours ago, kermit said:

Express buses, called MetroRAPID will begin running from North Meck to Uptown via the toll lanes in February.

Once commuters get to the park and ride the trip to Uptown will be faster than the Red Line could ever be.

https://www.wfae.org/post/cats-changing-north-meck-express-bus-routes-use-i-77-toll-lanes

Just wish the express routes (48X, 77X) north of Exit 23 could have the same benefits of a direct-connect ramp as those (53X, 63X) south of Exit 25.  Merging between middle Express lanes and  outer on- and off-ramps during peak times truly depends on the kindness of strangers.

I also think whatever time saved by using  the Hambright direct-connect for 63X will be lost sitting on the not yet widened Statesville Rd in Huntersville, especially in the PM. Huntersville a short-sighted mistake in not insisting on a direct-connect at Stumptown to serve both Exits 23 and 25. Granted, CDOT gave them little choice by bullying CRTPO (formerly MUMPO) into splitting the toll-lane "bonus money" in order to build the Lakeview direct-connect along a segment of 77 rarely congested.

Edited January 14, 2020 by southslider

[kermit]

Austin is getting ready to roll out a comprehensive mass transit plan that is priced in the $3.2-$10.2 billion range

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austins-unveils-multi-billion-dollar-transit-plan-with-possible-light-rail-expansion-downtown-subway/

I haven't seen many details yet (looks to be 2 LRT lines and several (?) "BRT" routes. It includes a downtown tunnel for LRT. They are likely to put funding for the plan to a vote in November (no, they do not appear to have any preliminary engineering complete for cost estimates)

Relevant Charlotte content: If we are going to vote on big bang funding in the November election we need to see info about that plan SOON!

Edited January 14, 2020 by kermit

[davidclt]

City Council at their retreat in Durham talks about our bus system lacking:

https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/charlotte-city-council-members-travel-durham-annual-retreat/NHPAD73G2VGNVO2PNMNMCZU2DI/

What type of investment would it take to really get a workable and working transit system in our region?

[kermit]

On 1/14/2020 at 7:16 PM, davidclt said:

City Council at their retreat in Durham talks about our bus system lacking:

https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/charlotte-city-council-members-travel-durham-annual-retreat/NHPAD73G2VGNVO2PNMNMCZU2DI/

What type of investment would it take to really get a workable and working transit system in our region?

I have no idea, but I'll make an uninformed guess anyway. The bar-napkin estimate on a regional transportation plan might look something like:

• Mecklenburg Big bang: $8 billion (Silver line, BLE-E, Freedom and Graham BRT, higher frequency on Blue Line, etc.)
• Double Mecklenburg co bus frequency: #32 million per year operating expense and buy a crapload of buses
• Phase 3 streetcar (a city project, not CATS): $400 million (just a guess)

I guesstimate Mecklenburg could have the best transit system in the South for $8-$10 billion

As for regional transit:

• Commuter rail to Mashville via Monroe (34 miles @ $35 million per mile): $1.2 billion
• Commuter rail to Rock Hill and Chester (42 miles @ $35 million per mile):$1.5 billion
• Commuter rail to Shelby via Kings Mtn (requires 10 miles of new track along US74) (42 miles @ $35 million per mile): $1.5 billion
• Commuter rail to Spencer (43 miles @ $10 million per mile -- its already double tracked): $430 million
• Commuter rail to Lincolnton (via Mt Holly) (30 miles @ $35 million per mile): $1.1 billion (getting this train to Gateway may require some extra $$$)
• Nothing to N Meck / Mooresville since it is more efficiently served by BRT (and Iredell 'pulled a Pineville' and does not want it)

Total to serve outlying counties with commuter rail (not really a Mecklenburg expense): $5.7 billion. Each of those lines is roughly the same cost as widening 77 from Uptown to the State Line (but offer much more capacityj

It looks like a bunch of money, but this is an existential need for a metro growing as fast as ours. Roads won't be able to keep up with traffic at this growth rate so we had better build an alternative ASAP or we are going to Atlantaize ourselves.  If commuter rail and rezoning can generate higher densities and increased prosperity in outlying areas then new tax revenue will generate a very large portion of this cost. Commuter rail will also help keep metro housing costs low and allow for (some) greener suburban.

($35 million per mile commuter rail capital cost comes from Triangle Commuter rail feasibility study posted here: http://goforwardnc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PRES_GTCR-Prelim-Results-191218_DRAFT_v5.1-for-web.pdf those estimates are based on converting a mostly single-tracked railroad to double track, buying equipment and building stations I believe)

EDIT: CBJ reported on some transit cost issues today (see link two posts below this one) and provided the costs of increasing bus frequency to 15 minutes or less:

Quote

Even more attainable targets, such as bus routes with intervals of 15 minutes or less, present challenges. Lewis told me that move alone will cost $32 million more per year in operating costs for more mechanics, drivers, fuel and so on. And, to make that happen, CATS will need at least 100 more buses. Buying a hundred standard diesel buses would cost $50 million; hybrids would be $75 million. Electric buses would push the price tag past $100 million.

 

Edited January 17, 2020 by kermit

[Blue_Devil]

16 hours ago, kermit said:

Austin is getting ready to roll out a comprehensive mass transit plan that is priced in the $3.2-$10.2 billion range

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austins-unveils-multi-billion-dollar-transit-plan-with-possible-light-rail-expansion-downtown-subway/

I haven't seen many details yet (looks to be 2 LRT lines and several (?) "BRT" routes. It includes a downtown tunnel for LRT. They are likely to put funding for the plan to a vote in November (no, they do not appear to have any preliminary engineering complete for cost estimates)

Relevant Charlotte content: If we are going to vote on big bang funding in the November election we need to see info about that plan SOON!

I am interested in the Tunnel costs, as usually tunneling is prohibitively expensive, but as cities are finding a need there may be ways to bring down costs.  

[kermit]

4 hours ago, Blue_Devil said:

I am interested in the Tunnel costs, as usually tunneling is prohibitively expensive, but as cities are finding a need there may be ways to bring down costs.  

When they replaced the water main under Park road 5-6 (?) years ago they did about a third of the work necessary for a cut and cover transit tunnel. 

Nobody beotched about the cost of doing that.

Edited January 15, 2020 by kermit

[kermit]

Eric Spanberg reports on the city council's retreat: https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/01/15/what-challenges-persist-for-charlotte-leaders-as.html

Quote

On Tuesday, council and the mayor spent several hours mulling short-, medium- and long-term transportation goals. Among those aspirations: more rail lines (a given), embracing new technology such as autonomous cars, expanding park-and-ride options, considering congestion fees to limit uptown car traffic, fare-capping, and organizing a transportation referendum. Also getting a lot of attention: Shorter-term goals of increasing bus service to every 15 minutes on routes, enhancing the “Envision My Ride” program started in 2018 to reduce waits and commute times. Bus rides requiring a transfer under the system being revamped take an average of 90 minutes, creating scheduling nightmares for residents who don’t have cars — and discouraging people who might prefer transit options to driving.

Quote

“This is really the next step,” said Julie Eiselt, head of council’s transportation committee. “We were really focused on affordable housing last year. Now we’re really talking about affordable living and our bus system is a big part of that. How do we connect people efficiently, get them where they need to go in an efficient, dependable manner?”

Very glad to see that they have finally connected transit to affordability.

[southslider]

^Step one-- stop approving multi-family where there isn't any transit, especially in food deserts.

19 hours ago, davidclt said:

What type of investment would it take to really get a workable and working transit system in our region?

Not only will Express service to North Mecklenburg expand next month, but CATS will also nearly double (from five to nine) the total number of Local routes that run every 15 minutes or better.

[videtur quam contuor]

3 hours ago, kermit said:

When they replaced the water main under Park road 5-6 (?) years ago they did about a third of the work necessary for cut and cover transit.

Nobody beotched about the cost of doing that.

Utilities next. Communication and electricity underground  is cheaper than water and waste installation. Has to be.

[Scribe]

It is difficult to see how CATS can be successful when, they plan on losing 7% in revenue for FY2020.

In a year that has a fully (and hopefully smoothly) run Blue Line and updated bus routes with higher frequency.

What am I missing here folks?

OpEx going up by >20% yet fare revenue going down by >7%

Who's going to pickup that slack?